Who's In the Ladies Final | Page 2 | Golden Skate

Who's In the Ladies Final

PolymerBob

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2007
^^^

I just posted this in the Skate Canada folder.

Ladies:

Miki - 30
YuNa -30

Aliona - 24
Ashley - 24

Rachael - 22 (may not hold up)

Two more ladies needed:

Akiko - 15
Joannie - 11
Alysa -9
Caroline -9

If Akiko and Joannie skate up to expectations, Ashley will be the only American in the Ladies Final. But Heavy Meltdowns will change the expectations.

So if I have this right, Akiko bumps Rachael down 1 spot if she gets 5th or better, ( 1 + 5 ) > ( 4 + 2 ). Joannie bumps Rachael down if she gets silver, but is below Rachael if she gets bronze. ( 4 + 2 ) > ( 3 + 3 ). If Alissa or Caroline win, she goes above Ashley and Alena. If Alissa or Caroline get silver, she goes above or below Rachael depending on total scores.

Clear as mud?
 
Last edited:
Joined
Jul 11, 2003
So if I have this right, Akiko bumps Rachael down 1 spot if she gets 5th or better, ( 1 + 5 ) > ( 4 + 2 ). Joannie bumps Rachael down if she gets silver, but is below Rachael if she gets bronze. ( 4 + 2 ) > ( 3 + 3 ). If Alissa or Caroline win, she goes above Ashley and Alena. If Alissa or Caroline get silver, she goes above or below Rachael depending on total scores. Clear as mud?
:laugh:
It certainly looks that way.

If Joannie or Akiko win, and either comes in second, at the same time, that's the end of the discussion. Any tie with 24 will not affect the entrants.

It seem like only a win by Czisny or Zhang will definitely put one in the Finals but trouble lies ahead for Rochette and Suzuki if they go too far down the podium. I also think tie breakers will prevail.
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
And to get in to the final(and not at all realistic scenarios left aside), Alissa or Caroline would need to win SC, or place second with a score of 179,48(Caroline) or 174,33(Alissa) for 22 points and to beat out Rachael on the tie breaker.


I don't think Caroline or Alissa have ever pulled off scores that high have they? Alissa might have gotten higher than that when she won SC in 2005 but I feel like when Caroline and Alissa skate well they usually get scores in the 150-165 range. Maybe i'm way off though...
 

Enthusiast

On the Ice
Joined
Jul 21, 2009
By competing at U.S. Nationals and coming in first or second.

So she can still make it if she comes in 2nd? :laugh: :clap:

How can Ashley join her? Given she is most likely the only American making the GPF, even if she places, say 3rd at Nationals will that be enough to bump Flatt off the team?
 
Joined
Jun 21, 2003
So she can still make it if she comes in 2nd? :laugh: :clap:

How can Ashley join her? Given she is most likely the only American making the GPF, even if she places, say 3rd at Nationals will that be enough to bump Flatt off the team?

My opinion is that first and second at nationals will go to the Olympics no matter what the outcome of the fall events is.

I might be wrong about that. I am just guessing at what the USFSA might or might not decide to do. Phil Hersh wrote an article a while back in which he asked some USFSA officials what the "new rules" meant and they gave assurance that the winner of nationals would automatically go, but there was some leeway to consider other factors for the second spot.
 

PolymerBob

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2007
My opinion is that first and second at nationals will go to the Olympics no matter what the outcome of the fall events is.

Let's say this is true ( for just a moment :) ), can a bang up performance in the Grand Prix influence who the top 2 are? Will standing on the podium in Lake Placid, Kitchner or Tokyo make a 91 degree UR look like 89 degrees at Nationals?

( Or maybe the USFSA uses radians. :biggrin: )
 
Joined
Jun 21, 2003
Will standing on the podium in Lake Placid, Kitchner or Tokyo make a 91 degree UR look like 89 degrees at Nationals?

That's a good question. In fact, two good questions.

The first is, tech callers and judges being human, might reputation based on past performance influence their calls and scores at Nationals. I think yes.

The second is, will the powers that be in the USFSA instruct (or drop a hint to) the judges to give generous marks to their predetermined choices? No, I don't think so.
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
Is Sasha allowed to not show up at nationals but ask to go to the Olympics anyways? Isn't that what Michelle did in 2006 before she realized she was too injured to compete and Emily took her place?
I am confused because I thought international results went into the equation of who gets to go to the Olympics. It looks like Ashley may be the only US lady in the GPF...that's got to be worth something right? If she bombs at nationals than maybe not but otherwise...
Also if Sasha petitioned to go without competing would they let her? I feel like she just wants to win gold, which won't happen if she's injured and probably even if she isn't injured considering she'd have to beat Yu Na Kim.
The judges can also help certain people win with this new system, which makes everything even more confusing. I bet all the skaters would be super mad if Sasha got to go to the olympics without competing at nationals! Does anyone know if Kimmie will be competing at nats this year?
 

SerpentineSteps

On the Ice
Joined
Aug 18, 2009
Is Sasha allowed to not show up at nationals but ask to go to the Olympics anyways? Isn't that what Michelle did in 2006 before she realized she was too injured to compete and Emily took her place?
I am confused because I thought international results went into the equation of who gets to go to the Olympics. It looks like Ashley may be the only US lady in the GPF...that's got to be worth something right? If she bombs at nationals than maybe not but otherwise...
Also if Sasha petitioned to go without competing would they let her? I feel like she just wants to win gold, which won't happen if she's injured and probably even if she isn't injured considering she'd have to beat Yu Na Kim.
The judges can also help certain people win with this new system, which makes everything even more confusing. I bet all the skaters would be super mad if Sasha got to go to the olympics without competing at nationals! Does anyone know if Kimmie will be competing at nats this year?

I'm sure she's allowed to petition, but I doubt that they'd send her. In Michelle's case, she'd won Nationals 8 years in a row before the Olympic season (and was the 2nd-highest placing skater at World's the season immediately preceding the Olympics), whereas Sasha hasn't even been skating (competitively, at least).
 

PolymerBob

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2007
I'm sure she's allowed to petition, but I doubt that they'd send her. In Michelle's case, she'd won Nationals 8 years in a row before the Olympic season (and was the 2nd-highest placing skater at World's the season immediately preceding the Olympics), whereas Sasha hasn't even been skating (competitively, at least).

Michelle was off the podium at Worlds in 2005.
 

Enthusiast

On the Ice
Joined
Jul 21, 2009
Phil Hersh wrote an article a while back in which he asked some USFSA officials what the "new rules" meant and they gave assurance that the winner of nationals would automatically go, but there was some leeway to consider other factors for the second spot.

So Alissa could win Nationals and make the olympic team! :laugh::laugh::clap:
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
Yeah I suppose it could :yes:. It might mean though if Ashley were to come in say third, she might be sent instead of the number 2 finisher because she competed better internationally and went to the Grand Prix Final.
Another situation I could see this happening would be if say Mirai beat Alissa at nats by a very small margin, but say Alissa medaled at SC and Mirai bombed, the judges could end up sending Alissa by arguing her 4th place finish in Russia and podium finish at SC make her more deserving of the spot than Mirai who had a 5th place finish in China and a bad finish at SC where she competed against Czisny, considering the close finish at nats.
I don't think the reverse would be true, say if Alissa or Kimmie or Sasha beat out someone like Caroline or Mirai by a small margin, but Caroline or Mirai had competed better internationally, I think they'd send the 2nd place veteran finisher at nats because they want a "woman" and not a "teenager" to represent the US in the Olympics and would tell the youngsters to try again in 4 years. I think that's stupid though, because maybe the young skaters don't want to wait four years and would rather have a normal life, the best skater should go to the Olympics regardless of her age, amount of time she's been competing, and what she looks like. That's just MPO though
 

R.D.

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
So Alissa could win Nationals and make the olympic team! :laugh::laugh::clap:

Perhaps, but I don't think anyone has successfully defended a US title since Kwan left...if others caved under the pressure certainly someone like Czisny wouldn't be the exception...
 

SerpentineSteps

On the Ice
Joined
Aug 18, 2009
Michelle was off the podium at Worlds in 2005.

I never said that she was on the podium. My reference to 2005 Worlds was to shed light on why they had more reason to send Michelle to Torino (2nd-highest placing US Lady in the previous Worlds) than they do to send Sasha to Vancouver (absent in the past 3 Worlds).
 

Trewyn

Medalist
Joined
Dec 10, 2008
Back on to the original topic; with the Skate America scores; does this mean that, since Rachael was unable to defeat Yu Na overall that Alena is a lock together with Yu Na and Miki? Only Ashley could potentially be kicked out of the final by Caroline or Alissa?
 

PolymerBob

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2007
Back on to the original topic; with the Skate America scores; does this mean that, since Rachael was unable to defeat Yu Na overall that Alena is a lock together with Yu Na and Miki? Only Ashley could potentially be kicked out of the final by Caroline or Alissa?

Ashley is in the Final unless 3 girls move above her. In order for that to happen, 3 things must all take place.

1) Caroline or Alissa win.
2) Joannie comes in second with more total points than Ashley.
3) Akiko finishes higher than 5th.
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
I'm pretty sure Ashley is in...I bet Joannie will win. But I thought Ashley and Alena Leonova were tied for points right now?
 
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