Skate America: Predictions

[Phoenix347]

I did say a silver would give Rachael consideration for the Final. I did not say she would be in the Final.

There is a lot of iffing to do here. Here's what we know:

Miki is IN the Final at 30

Mao and Yukari are at 20 , not certain yet.

Leonova and Wagner at 24, possible

YuNa is at 15

Suzuki is at 15

Joannie is at 11

Czisny is at 9

Flatt is at 9

Zhang is at 9

My IF would be
Ando
YuNa
Suzuki
Leonova
Wagner and ???

Rachael to be considered as well as Czisny and Zhang if they get Silver and will be tied and also eliminate Mao and Yukari. If they get bronz they will tie with Mao and Yukari and It will be the greatest tie-breaker of all time.

Anyone see it different, let me know. I'm not perfect.

Hmm let see...

Ando 30 .. in #1

Let's assume placements for SA:

1. Yuna so she would have 30 and wound be in, #2
2. Flatt, so that would be 9 + 13 = 22.
3. Sugruri. so 4 + 11 = 15, out

Assume placement for SC:

1. Rochette, so that would be 11 + 15 = 26... in so #3.
2. Suzuki, so that would be 15 + 13 = 28... in so #4
3. if Nagasu, 7 + 11 = 18 no, she can't make it.
if Zhang, 9 +11 = 20... no not enough.
if Ciszny, 9 + 11 = 20... not enough
if Lepisto 7 + 11 = 18... nope


So if this hold true, #5 and #6 would be Wagner & Leonova.

At this point, probably no one with less then 9 point an event left can qualify. So for skaters with 9 points, they would need to probably win to guarantee a spot.

If some 7 point skaters win SC, Nagasu, Lepisto, and mostly likely not Gilles since she's in SA... that would tie them with Flatt unless Flatt is less then silver in SA. So if Flatt is third or less, that would give her 20 points or less so she would be out. So if that's true and Nagasu or Lepisto wins and Rochette gets second, that would leave N or L with 22 points... and Rochette with 24 and Flatt with 22 is she silvers and that would have 5 skaters ahead so best points totals for skaters with 22 points would get to go to the final.

Of course if Yuna bombs SA and someone else wins, that could throw the entire order around a bit. Plus if Rochette really bombs and finishes lower than 2nd at Skate Canada... erggggg...

However, it's most likely that current top 3, Ando, Leonova and Wagner will make it to the final. Asada and Nakano are out of luck, I think. They'll probably joined by Kim, Rochette and Suzuki. But if there are some real surprises, who knows!!

Edit: Of course if Hecken or Helgesson wins both of SA and SC or 1 & 2 in each that could throw things out of whack but how likely is that???

Also, from the ISU GP standing, it appears that the first tie break is the highest placement and second the total points. So 1-4 would definitely beat 2-3.

[R.D.]

Everyone really thinks Yu Na is unbeatable by Rachael? I'm not sure... I sure hope so; because I'm not ashamed to say I much rather have Ashley in the final than Rachael. Plus; I'm in love with Yu Na's triple-triple which is a thing of beauty.

Flatt is simply NOT in her league. I wish she was, but that's the reality of the situation...She'd need the SOHL (Skate Of Her Life) and Yuna would have to have a meltdown on the level of the Houston Oilers in '92 (?) (leading 35-3 in the 3rd quarter before losing to the Bills)

Not absolutely infeasible, but I think I'd win the lottery before that happened.

[Mathman]

Grand Prix tie breakers

1. Best placement.in one event (1 and 4 beats 2 and 3, etc.)
2. Total CoP points, all events.
3. Participation in two events beats participation in just 1 (the MK rule )
4. Total points in the two free skates.
5. Most points in the higher of the two free skates.
6. Most points in the higher of the two short programs.
7. Total number of participants in the two events.

If it is still a tie, both skaters go to the GP finals.

Example: Skater A has a total of 24 placement points after his/her two events.
So does skater B

Skater A got her 24 points by a second and a thrid.
So did skater B.

Skater A has a total of 309.27 CoP points overall.
So does skater B.

Skater A participated in two GP events.
So did skater B.

Skater A had a total of 204.61 CoP points in her two LPs combined.
So did skater B

Skater A scored 104.61 points in the better of her two LPs.
So did skater B.

Skater A scored 55.21 CoP points in the netter of her two SPs.
So did skater B!

The two events that skater A participated in had a total of 24 entries.
Skater B was in TEB. Sasha withdrew. Skater A goes to the Grand Prix final, skater B stays home.

[bekalc]

The two events that skater A participated in had a total of 24 entries.
Skater B was in TEB. Sasha withdrew. Skater A goes to the Grand Prix final, skater B stays home.

Actually Sasha was replaced at TEB.

[Mathman]

Actually Sasha was replaced at TEB.

I thought they tried to replace Cohen with Glebova, but Glebova could not get her travel arrangements/documents together in time, so there were only ten ladies at TEB (Candice Didier also withdrew, IIRC).

[silverlake22]

[QUOTE=Mathman;427802]Grand Prix tie breakers

1. Best placement.in one event (1 and 4 beats 2 and 3, etc.)


So does that mean if Mirai got 2nd at SC, and Rachael got 3rd at SA, and Caoline/Alissa got 3rd at SC, even though 5+2=7 and 4+3=7, Mirai would go instead of Rachael, Caorline, or Alissa because she did better at SC. That seems feasible, Mirai did win the SP at CofC and to get second Joannie could still beat her and she's just have to finish in front of zhang and czisny which she is definitely capable of doing because she skates faster than both of them, attempts more triples at least than alissa, is as flexible as both of them, and doesn't have bad jumping technique like zhang or anxiety flare ups like czisny. So if that does happen, will she be in a tie braker with a lot of others or will she definitely make it to the GPF?

[sjwh08]

So does that mean if Mirai got 2nd at SC, and Rachael got 3rd at SA, and Caoline/Alissa got 3rd at SC, even though 5+2=7 and 4+3=7, Mirai would go instead of Rachael, Caorline, or Alissa because she did better at SC.

Yes, but then there's Mao with 5+2, too.

[Phoenix347]

Grand Prix tie breakers

1. Best placement.in one event (1 and 4 beats 2 and 3, etc.)

So does that mean if Mirai got 2nd at SC, and Rachael got 3rd at SA, and Caoline/Alissa got 3rd at SC, even though 5+2=7 and 4+3=7, Mirai would go instead of Rachael, Caorline, or Alissa because she did better at SC. That seems feasible, Mirai did win the SP at CofC and to get second Joannie could still beat her and she's just have to finish in front of zhang and czisny which she is definitely capable of doing because she skates faster than both of them, attempts more triples at least than alissa, is as flexible as both of them, and doesn't have bad jumping technique like zhang or anxiety flare ups like czisny. So if that does happen, will she be in a tie braker with a lot of others or will she definitely make it to the GPF?

In that case, neither Mirai or Rachael would probably go becuase 5th(7 pt.) + 2nd (13pt.) = 20 pt. and 4th(9 pt) + 3 (11 pt.) = 20 pt. would probably not be top 6 anyway. But it is true that in this case Mirai would win a tie break between the two but she would still have to beat Mao in total points to have any chance at all.

[silverlake22]

I had completely forgot about Mao....but what if Mirai were to win SC? Then she'd have 5+1=6 and be ahead of Mao and Rachael with a silver at SA (4+2=6). Has Joannie done successful 3-3s in competition this season? If she doesn't include any in her programs at SC, Mirai could feasibly win if she skates well. I guess if Caroline or Alissa won SC, one of them would go to GPF instead of Mao and Rachel. I doubt Caroline or Alissa will win SC though, but Mirai might have a shot if she skates like she did in her SP from CofC for both programs at SC.

I know Joannie does 3lz-2t-2lo, as do Rachael, Mirai, and Caroline. But the three Americans also attempt 3-3s often and I haven't seen Joannie do one in competition I don't believe. Alissa does not have a 3-3 or a 3-2-2, so for her to win, she has to skate clean and be very expressive/artistic and hope other people make mistakes. This is what confused me at nationals, Alissa always seems to get high scores despite not having a 3-3, 3-2-2, or even consistently landing her triples. She has done a 3-3 in competition once, in 2005 SA, and it was downgraded, so since then I do not think she has tried it again

[Phoenix347]

I had completely forgot about Mao....but what if Mirai were to win SC? Then she'd have 5+1=6 and be ahead of Mao and Rachael with a silver at SA (4+2=6). Has Joannie done successful 3-3s in competition this season? If she doesn't include any in her programs at SC, Mirai could feasibly win if she skates well. I guess if Caroline or Alissa won SC, one of them would go to GPF instead of Mao and Rachel. I doubt Caroline or Alissa will win SC though, but Mirai might have a shot if she skates like she did in her SP from CofC for both programs at SC.

I know Joannie does 3lz-2t-2lo, as do Rachael, Mirai, and Caroline. But the three Americans also attempt 3-3s often and I haven't seen Joannie do one in competition I don't believe. Alissa does not have a 3-3 or a 3-2-2, so for her to win, she has to skate clean and be very expressive/artistic and hope other people make mistakes. This is what confused me at nationals, Alissa always seems to get high scores despite not having a 3-3, 3-2-2, or even consistently landing her triples. She has done a 3-3 in competition once, in 2005 SA, and it was downgraded, so since then I do not think she has tried it again

Even if Nagasu wins SC(7 + 15 = 22) , if Joannie is second (11 + 13 = 24) and Suzuki is third or fourth (15 + 11 = 26 or 15 + 9 =24 ) and if Kim is better than 5th in SA (15 + 9 = 24), Mirai would have six people with more points ahead of her and would be out. This is true for Lepisto, also.

[silverlake22]

so essentially no US ladies will be at the GPF? Except Wagner, but is even she definitely in with her 2nd and 3rd placements? This is all very confusing, but it seems like SC is going to be a high pressure event. Is there any way another US lady can make the GPF?

[snowflake]

Puh, after reading all this math...

...my predictions

Men
1. Verner
2. Lysacek
3. Amodio
4. Mroz
5. Nanri

Ladies
1. Kim
2. Sebestyen
3. Flatt
4. Suguri
5. Gedevanishvili

Pair
1. Shen/Zhao
2. Volosozhar/Morosov
3. Zhang/Zhang
4. Duhamel/Buntin
5. McLaughlin/Brubaker

Dance
1. Belbin/Agosto
2. Khokhlova/Novitski
3. Cappellini/Lanotte
4. Gorshkova/Butikov
5. Zaretski/Zaretski

I want at least one surprise in this GP too

[Joesitz]

Looks like there will be ties in Ladies, at least for the sixth place. But there will be other ties, e.g., Aliona and Ashley at least just for the placement of these skaters and the important Order of Skate.

I would say the magic number would 24, for those at 22 a tie breaker. Reread MM's post regarding tie breakers.

[Mathman]

By the way, on the ISU page that lists the standings so far, the list also shows who is ahead of whom on tie-breakers so far.

http://www.isuresults.com/events/gp2009/gpsladies.pdf

For instance, if you look at Ashley Wagner, she has 24 ponts. In the first tie-breker she has a "2". That means her best finish is second. In the category of all skaters with 24 points, she will be beaten by anyone with a "1" in that coulmn.

The next column is total CoP points. Highest wins.

The next column has a 2. This means that Ashley got her 24 ppoints in two competitions. Yu-na Kim has 15 points and a "1" in this column, because she hasn't done her second event yet.

The rest of the columns for Ashley are her total for both LPs, her highest for one LP, and her highest for one SP

In the last coulmn Ashley has a 23. She competed against a total of 23 other skaters (highest wins in this, the final tie-breaker).

[snowflake]

By the way, on the ISU page that lists the standings so far, the list also shows who is ahead of whom on tie-breakers so far.

http://www.isuresults.com/events/gp2009/gpsladies.pdf

For instance, if you look at Ashley Wagner, she has 24 ponts. In the first tie-breker she has a "2". That means her best finish is second. In the category of all skaters with 24 points, she will be beaten by anyone with a "1" in that coulmn.

The next column is total CoP points. Highest wins.

The next column has a 2. This means that Ashley got her 24 ppoints in two competitions. Yu-na Kim has 15 points and a "1" in this column, because she hasn't done her second event yet.

The rest of the columns for Ashley are her total for both LPs, her highest for one LP, and her highest for one SP

In the last coulmn Ashley has a 23. She competed against a total of 23 other skaters (highest wins in this, the final tie-breaker).

Great explanation I never understood this and didn't bother too much. Good though to know what it all means