That comparison is not quite correct, IMO.
Evan knows that if he skates cleanly, he will win against most other competitors with the same jump layout.
This wasn't the case for Arakawa. I think you have to ask "what will the other competitor be most likely to achieve". With Slutskaya, that was a 6-Triple program. Slutskaya had a very strong year and did a 6-Triple program at every previous competition. She did well in the SP and she was known as a consistent skater.
Arakawa really did play it safe. She didn't try to beat Slutskaya. She went out there to win Silver and knew a clean, less difficult skate might still possibly win her Gold. She had to depend on a mistake from Slutskaya for that, though.
Evan knows that if he skates cleanly, he will win against most other competitors with the same jump layout.
This wasn't the case for Arakawa. I think you have to ask "what will the other competitor be most likely to achieve". With Slutskaya, that was a 6-Triple program. Slutskaya had a very strong year and did a 6-Triple program at every previous competition. She did well in the SP and she was known as a consistent skater.
Arakawa really did play it safe. She didn't try to beat Slutskaya. She went out there to win Silver and knew a clean, less difficult skate might still possibly win her Gold. She had to depend on a mistake from Slutskaya for that, though.
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