Ladies Free Program 19:00 pm Eastern Time Saturday, November 21

[silverlake22]

As for Czisny, I don't know what the Nationals judges will think of her. She's done so bad at Worlds last year that they may just want her to be rewarded justly for her skate but not have her make the Olympics team.

I think they should just let her go so that she can get on with her life....I feel like if she had gotten to go in 2005 she probably wouldn't still be skating now. I bet she will deliver at nats.That being said, I'm worried about how she does so few jumps. She never does a salchow or triple toe (I think, just double toes on the back end of combos), has downgrade problems with and often falls on flip (lip?) and loop . Does she really have a good shot to do well at the olympics if the only jumps she can execute correctly are a triple lutz and a double axel? I guess one could say the same thing about Mao, but sometimes she lands her 3 axel which makes up for it

[bekalc]

I think they should just let her go so that she can get on with her life....I feel like if she had gotten to go in 2005 she probably wouldn't still be skating now. I bet she will deliver at nats.That being said, I'm worried about how she does so few jumps. She never does a salchow or triple toe (I think, just double toes on the back end of combos), has downgrade problems with and often falls on flip (lip?) and loop . Does she really have a good shot to do well at the olympics if the only jumps she can execute correctly are a triple lutz and a double axel? I guess one could say the same thing about Mao, but sometimes she lands her 3 axel which makes up for it

I think they should base the Olympics this time on how the people actually skate. At this point, I think Flatt should be a lock for the team because she's clearly our best skater with the highest scoring potential. Period. Then, I think next spot should be really between Wagner/Czisny with Mirai having an outside shot. Right now I think the team should actually be Flatt/Wagner.

[Layfan]

Hey I have a question. I've been thinking about the US ladies situation over and over in my head, and I was just wondering if anyone knows the last time Alissa put up a good short AND long program at a competition? (and when I say good, I mean really good for her, not like her LP at nats last year or her LP last night or at COR). I really think she is in good standing to go to the Olympics but it always she either bombs the short and does a great LP or does a great SP and then delivers a freeskate with a fall or two and a few downgraded jumps. Recently, she's been falling less, often times just once or twice instead of her standard 2 or 3 from a few years ago, but the downgrades still worry me, It seems as though she is so preoccupied with landing her jumps that she tries to control them too much, resulting in smaller jumps that are given negative GOEs or UR calls or both. I wish she'd attack the jumps with more speed and power, but I feel like she's too afraid she'll fall down if she does this. Maybe she just doesn't have that much power anyways? She does not have the same muscular body type as many of the lady power jumpers

Can we just be fair to Alissa and point out that NONE of the U.S. ladies managed to put together two stellar programs in the GP events? She did just as well as anybody else among the Americans this season, IMO. In fact, I thought all the top U.S. ladies, except for Caroline, fended rather well for themselves. They showed they are to be reckoned with. Alissa, Ashley and Rachel all have GP silvers. That's nothing to sniff about.

[ImaginaryPogue]

I do hope they are super careful at the OLYs. One more judging controversy/scandal and skating is done...IMO.

Agreed.

bekalc, is it home court inflation or home court advantage? You're right - skaters from smaller federations simply will not have that advantage, and it's even more true during the grand prix season. But I do think this inflation of scoring will be tempered at the GPF/Olympics. If not, I'll eat my hat.

Nadine, I'm gonna need your last comment to be explained more fully. "COP be damned, they go hand in hand" (well rhymed, by the way).

[Layfan]

Actually, I think with the conclusion of the 6 GP competitions, we do know more--we know which skaters the international judges have indicated they will potentially "support" with decent scores for this season, and they've pretty much telegraphed it clearly to USFS, if anyone there is reading the signals. And those skaters are Flatt, Wagner and Czisny in no particular order. Message to Mirai is "not yet" and message to Caroline is "forget it" at least for this season. My belief is we will not see Sasha at Nationals or at any other eligible competitions ever again, so I've discounted her as a factor.

I agree except for Mirai. She got 62 plus in her SP at her first GP event. I might be mistaken but I think Flatt and Wagner have not broken 60 for the SP at an ISU event. (Although Flatt probably would have if she had not uncharacteristically taken a spill at SA.)

[silverlake22]

Can we just be fair to Alissa and point out that NONE of the U.S. ladies managed to put together two stellar programs in the GP events? She did just as well as anybody else among the Americans this season, IMO. In fact, I thought all the top U.S. ladies, except for Caroline, fended rather well for themselves. They showed they are to be reckoned with. Alissa, Ashley and Rachel all have GP silvers. That's nothing to sniff about.

You are right, and I think it's actually good that none of the US did the best ever (except for maybe Rachael's LP at SA) at their GP events because I think it means they will continue to get better as the season progresses, which will hopefully mean each will peak at nationals and/or the olympics. The thing I said about Alissa and jumps was in reference to the Olympics, not nationals and the other skaters there. Right now I would rank her #2 US lady behind Rachael Flatt, though in the US she could easily be number 1 again. Rachael and Ashley are kind of similar in there skating styles and that's why I think Rachael and Alissa should go. Could the US ever send Rachael and Alissa to the Olympics but say Ashley and Mirai to worlds? That seems like a logical move if results are close at nationals. Do anyone think if Ashley does well at GPF that she could edge out Rachael for a spot at the Olympics?

[R.D.]

On paper, Alyssa seems to be in a good position to win again but in reality, she IS the defending champion and that's probably the toughest position to be in. When was the last time a US lady successfully defended her first US championship?

[ImaginaryPogue]

On paper, Alyssa seems to be in a good position to win again but in reality, she IS the defending champion and that's probably the toughest position to be in. When was the last time a US lady successfully defended her first US championship?

Rosalynn Summers. Won first in 1982. Defended in 1983.

[bekalc]

You are right, and I think it's actually good that none of the US did the best ever (except for maybe Rachael's LP at SA) at their GP events because I think it means they will continue to get better as the season progresses, which will hopefully mean each will peak at nationals and/or the olympics. The thing I said about Alissa and jumps was in reference to the Olympics, not nationals and the other skaters there. Right now I would rank her #2 US lady behind Rachael Flatt, though in the US she could easily be number 1 again. Rachael and Ashley are kind of similar in there skating styles and that's why I think Rachael and Alissa should go. Could the US ever send Rachael and Alissa to the Olympics but say Ashley and Mirai to worlds? That seems like a logical move if results are close at nationals. Do anyone think if Ashley does well at GPF that she could edge out Rachael for a spot at the Olympics?

I cannot see them leaving Rachael off the Olympic or World team. They will need Rachael to help them get spots for next year as well, and she has an outside shot at medaling at both events too.

Yes she was shaky in China, but she clearly demonstrated at Skate America that she by far has the highest scoring potential of all of the US ladies. Alissa is just too inconsistent and her jumps are very weak and downgradable as well.

I think that Wagner (and I don't think her and Rachael are that alike) at this point has a good shot at the second spot. But some of it will depend on how she does at the GPF.

So I think Rachael is a lock. And then its between Wagner, Czisny, Nagasu in that order.

[Layfan]

On paper, Alyssa seems to be in a good position to win again but in reality, she IS the defending champion and that's probably the toughest position to be in. When was the last time a US lady successfully defended her first US championship?

Rosalynn Summers. Won first in 1982. Defended in 1983.

Wow. I've never thought of that ... if Alissa of all people becomes the first person to break that trend it will be a miracle indeed. Kind of an ironic one.

[Blades of Passion]

I cannot see them leaving Rachael off the Olympic or World team.

If she finishes below 2nd at Nationals, she will not be on the Olympic team.

It's really that simple.

I do think there is some feeling that she is DUE for a National Title, though, given her 2 Silver Medals in a row.

[R.D.]

I cannot see them leaving Rachael off the Olympic or World team. They will need Rachael to help them get spots for next year as well, and she has an outside shot at medaling at both events too.

Yes she was shaky in China, but she clearly demonstrated at Skate America that she by far has the highest scoring potential of all of the US ladies. Alissa is just too inconsistent and her jumps are very weak and downgradable as well.

I think that Wagner (and I don't think her and Rachael are that alike) at this point has a good shot at the second spot. But some of it will depend on how she does at the GPF.

So I think Rachael is a lock. And then its between Wagner, Czisny, Nagasu in that order.

Generally, I agree with this post except for the "Rachel is a lock" part. I do think she has the strongest chance of making the team but she's no Kwan or Cohen. She hasn't even won the US title yet.

[ImaginaryPogue]

If she finishes below 2nd at Nationals, she will not be on the Olympic team.

It's really that simple.

I do think there is some feeling that she is DUE for a National Title, though, given her 2 Silver Medals in a row.

Right. The question then becomes does she score less than second?

[R.D.]

Rosalynn Summers. Won first in 1982. Defended in 1983.

OK, thanks. So it's something that hasn't happened in over 25 years. Can't see Czisny of all people accomplishing that

[bekalc]

If she finishes below 2nd at Nationals, she will not be on the Olympic team.

It's really that simple.

And you think that the judges are going to be willing to let Flatt do so??? I mean this is the same group that found a way to ensure Alissa won last year.

After Flatt's fifth place finish at worlds, and her very big score at Skate America, Flatt's PCS and her GOE at Nationals is going to go up big time.

I do think there is some feeling that she is DUE for a National Title, though, given her 2 Silver Medals in a row.

It's not just the feeling that she's due but the feeling that perhaps she should have actually won both times as well. No she's not Kwan or Cohen, but she's absolutely are strongest skater. Now sure if she has a meltdown, she'll likely be off then. But other than that....