"Hold an edge and look sexy!"
Since there's only six competitors, I'll just predict the entire rankings... And just for the fun of it, I'll predict where they'll end up in each program)
1. Nobunari Oda (3, 1)
2. Evan Lysacek (2, 2)
3. Daisuke Takahashi (1, 3)
4. Brian Joubert (5, 4)
5. Jeremy Abbott (4, 5)
6. Johnny Wier (6, 6)
Hard to say. Takahashi has the highest score ever, but he's not known for his competitive steadiness (and it was 4CC, which people are inclined to dismiss for it's high scoring. Lysacek (of all people) has the highest PCS of the year. What's remarkable if how varied this line-up is but it doesn't even hint at the depth this season. If last season was any indication, Abbott tends to peak quite early, so maybe he's more of a threat? Oda certainly seems the safest bet at this point, and Lysacek is steady enough a competitor to succeed where headcases don't.
1. Yu Na Kim (1, 1)
2. Miki Ando (3, 3)
3. Joannie Rochette (2, 4)
4. Akiko Suzuki (4, 5)
5. Alena Leonova (5, 2)
6. Ashley Wagner (6, 6)
As expectations rise for Leonova, I've gotta wonder just how far she can go this season. She seems to be somewhat immune to the pressure, but then again, there's still time. I've gotta say that her run has been quite something though: Europeans, Worlds Juniors and Seniors, WTT, and now the two GP events. Is she a darkhorse candidate for an Olympic Medal? Maybe not, but she's certainly skating like she is one.
Having said that, it's clearly Kim vs the rest. She showed signs of vulnerability at Skate America, though. It's interesting how quickly it became about Kim the "invulnerable." Her record breaking scores are obviously a reason, but Worlds 09 and TEB 09 are the only times in the past year where she put together two winning programs (two programs that were ranked first). Rochette and Asada beat her in the long at 4CC, Asada beat her at the GPF, and of course, Flatt topped her at Skate America. Anyway, I wonder if part of the reason that meme came to the forefront was simply the lack of a reasonable competitor. Asada was supposed to be that competitor, but problems have seemingly multiplied for her. Rochette acquired steadiness last year, but had two disappointing GP outings and we're still unsure how she'll deal with the pressure. Ando is the only other competitor to have 30 points, but given that she was essentially PCS'd the victory over a steady-if-rough Leonova and was behind Phaneuf in the TES, I think I'm wondering. Ando has only won one program this season! Think about that. All these competitors have had two short and two long program performances, and four of them have only won one. Rochette won two, and that was with the bombingest ladies field this season (compare that to last season: Kim and Rochette with four, Asada with two). Just gives you an idea of how spotty this season is.
Anyway, I'm placing Ando above Rochette simply because I think Rochette will need more time to improve and presumed jetlag.
1. Savchenko/Szolkowy (2, 1)
2. Shen/Zhao (1, 2)
3. Pang/Tong (3, 3)
4. Murkthova/Trankov (5, 4)
5. Kavaguti/Smirnov (4, 5)
6. Zhang/Zhang (6, 6)
What happened to the Zhangs this season? They've been the steadiest competitors this quadrennial with three silver medals. They've been off the podium exactly once this quadrennial, and that was at the 2007 worlds (and if you recall, that event had a lift disqualified in the short that had them in 10th). And what happened to M/T? How have they gone from a team that had friction issues and general issues with a successful long program done two clean long programs (yes, the second was largely clean) to Love Story? And what of K/S? Are they the Russian number ones?
I'm predicting S/S over S/Z on the strength of their long program. I think S/Z will win the short, S/S the long and overall. I also really wonder if this line-up will stay the way it is.
1. Virtue and Moir (2, 1)
2. Davis and White (1, 2)
3. Pechelat and Bourzat (3, 3)
4. Kerr and Kerr (4, 4)
5. Cappellini and Lanotte (5, 5)
6. Crone and Poirier (6, 6)
First off, grr to Belbin and Agosto for preventing a North American sweep of the podium (baring three disasters and a barnstorming skate from C/P). But from there....
I think Davis/White will eek out a program win on the OD only to lose the FD and the gold to Virtue/Moir. P/B beat out the Kerrs at TEB and I'm expecting the same here - K/K seem to struggle with the levels moreso than P/B (or anyone in this group, truth be told). C/L and C/P are just happy to have made it.
Last edited by ImaginaryPogue; 11-25-2009 at 10:46 PM.
Great Analysis... Looked very possible. but i think we should wait for the final line up and decide the ranking, especially since so many athletes are withdrawing due to injury
Originally Posted by ImaginaryPogue
Last edited by life684; 11-26-2009 at 07:40 AM.
Looks like the majority (including me) do not think that Ashley and Alena will medal. It would be very funny if they both ended up on the podium.
End subjectivity,reduce PCS, fix the COP!
I think that would be very nice to see.. But I'm not counting on it..
Originally Posted by 623
On the other hand, with respect to Brian's news, I'm readjusting my men podium. For the first time, I feel like Tomas is not going to bomb, so I'm thinking he may come in third behind Oda and Lysacek or maybe even second. Will be interesting to see if he will bomb or not..
Especially after Joubert withdrew! I'll change my predictions later.
Originally Posted by life684
With Joubert out, Verner in, I'm reminded that none of these skaters are really "long program" skaters. Verner has questionable stamina issues, Abbott, Takahashi and Wier are prone to mental lapses, especially when the pressure's on. Oda and Lysacek are the closest to being described as "long program" skaters. Indeed, Lysacek's performance at Worlds 06 and 09 as well as Olympics 06 certainly affirm that contention, and Oda has the long program of the season over on the guy's side. So, I think Oda and Lysacek will still go 1-2, on the basis of Oda's long and Lysacek's consistency.
Originally Posted by ImaginaryPogue
Verner has the quad in his short, and we know he can score well even without the big levels, and assuming he gets those levels he'll definitely be in the hunt after the short. But it's the long program that I'm curious about. Worlds 08, Euros 09 and even Worlds 09 are examples him being unable to convert success in the short to the long.
So what of Takahashi and Abbott? I think these two guys share the short program of the season award, so I'm particularly glad that they made it.
Wier's still in sixth, I'm afraid.
1. Nobunari Oda (4, 1)
2. Evan Lysacek (3, 2)
3. Tomas Verner (1, 4)
4. Daisuke Takahashi (5, 3)
5. Jeremy Abbott (2, 5)
6. Johnny Wier (6, 6)
1. Jeremy Abbott
2. Nobunari Oda
3. Evan Lysacek
4. Daisuke Takahashi
5. Tomas Verner
6. Johnny Weir
1. Yu-Na Kim
2. Joannie Rochette
3. Miki Ando
4. Alena Leonova
5. Ashley Wagner
6. Akiko Suzuki