Mid-Season Report: U.S. Ladies, R.D. Style

I think whoever goes to the Olympics we will see fewer underrotation calls. In Vancouver, the priority will be not so much holding skaters to an exacting standard as showcasing the sport to the world. (JMO.)

Mathman said:

I think whoever goes to the Olympics we will see fewer underrotation calls. In Vancouver, the priority will be not so much holding skaters to an exacting standard as showcasing the sport to the world. (JMO.)

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I would certainly hope so though I fear this might only be the case for the Europeans. Maybe some of the older skaters from other nations, but I bet if the US sends two teenagers to the olympics the judges will be super strict on their rotations and edge take off. Seems like teenagers are now the ones who get hammered the hardest by the judges.....JMO though

Mathman said:

I think whoever goes to the Olympics we will see fewer underrotation calls. In Vancouver, the priority will be not so much holding skaters to an exacting standard as showcasing the sport to the world. (JMO.)

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I hope you are right mm.
I could also see a tech caller cracking under pressure or deciding to be "the one" who becomes the "star of the games."

I have seen this happen at Super Bowls and at World Cup games. The results are usually far from satisfying for fans when officials and not the athletes play the major role in determing the outcome of a sporting event.

Personally, I think there will be a controversy in Vancouver........
The nature of CoP makes it vulnerable and there are enough geopolitical rivalries to make nationalism a factor.

Yuna vs any Japanese Ladies
Euro Dance teams vs N. American Dance teams

Euro boys vs N. American boys vs Japanese boys.

I don't think there will be enough medals to go around to keep everybody happy.

Having watched the judging so far this season has not been encouraging either.

Kwanford Wife said:

Plus, I'm sick of skaters that hang around for just a year or two and then fade away...ala Kimmie & Emily. Doesn't it seem like just yesterday these two young women were being touted as the US's best chance of medals against Mao? But like my hubby always says - that's why we play the game...

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I'm going to come to Meissner's defense ( ) for just a sec- in all honesty, it's not like she bailed after she won her World championship. She stuck around and unfortunately has not been able to keep up her level of skill (whether it's due to growth spurt, etc. is irrelevant in making this point). So I do give her SOME credit for sticking it out, even though struggles and injuries got the best of her later. As for Hughes, well- she, too stuck around but I think she got some kind of injury which took her out of Nationals and it's been downhill for her ever since. Then she went to college- tried to do both that full-time and skating but obviously couldn't manage (really hard thing to do). Plus, Hughes is attempting a return although I do think she will be well short of her goal based on SA (however, as we all know already, things can, and do tend to shake up in the second half of the season!).

Let's see what happens at Nats. First it was Flatt and Zhang, now people are saying Flatt and Wagner. I'd wait until after the GPF to determine faves, but seriously, it could be any two of those five in Vancouver. Although I will say that I think Rachel will be one of them- it would take a real bomb (WD or meltdown) for that not to be the case. The second spot could go to any of Wagner, Czisny or Nagasu, with maybe an outside chance by Zhang if she can pull herself together.

Personally, I think there will be a controversy in Vancouver........
The nature of CoP makes it vulnerable and there are enough geopolitical rivalries to make nationalism a factor.

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I hope not, generally, although if someone gets blatantly held up I do hope it is exposed to the public.

Oh, man, less than three months to go.

I guess Rachael and Ashley look like the contenders. I guess that's okay. I should take a better look at them and see how strong they are.

My ideal scenario would be (keeping in mind that I know this is a fairytale) Alissa and Sasha, and (still ideally) they peak right at the Olympics.

As for Emily and her lack of longevity, I can never fully feel peeved at someone who takes time off to go to college. Whether she gets her jumps back or not, I'm proud that she's in my favorite sport.

Speaking of Wagner- new Hersh article:

http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-spw-ashley-wagner1-2009dec01,0,2152419.story

Interesting stuff. Definitely slipping under the radar.

R.D. said:

Speaking of Wagner- new Hersh article:

http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-spw-ashley-wagner1-2009dec01,0,2152419.story

Interesting stuff. Definitely slipping under the radar.

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Thanks for the link RD. It is interesting to think about Ashley's chances at nationals and even the GPF.

I think she has the abilty to come 1st or 2nd at Natls - but not sure if the mental toughness is there.

Perhaps the GPF will give us a better idea of how Ashley can handle pressure.
But it is ridiculous to think the GPF has even 1/10 of the pressure of Natls.

That is why I am a firm believer in picking Natl teams based on how a skater performs at Natls. In Olympic seasons the pressure at Natls comes close to Olympic pressure. At GPF the girls socialize and go shopping together. Not at Natls baby - because everything is on the line for that ticket to Vancouver!

I think she has the abilty to come 1st or 2nd at Natls - but not sure if the mental toughness is there.

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Basically what I think about her in a nutshell. But IMO, her issue is not so much pressure as it is overexcitement.

Wow... The thing about the heart palpitations really struck me; could that be the explanation for the crazy, spastic leg shaking thing Ashley had going during the medal ceremony? I was really worried about her when I saw that... Poor girl!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mxw2glur-aw

I think the controversy in Vancouver could be a simple matter of the audience picking one winner ...........

.......... and the judges picking another.

That will do no good for the sport at all.

Olympia said:

My ideal scenario would be (keeping in mind that I know this is a fairytale) Alissa and Sasha, and (still ideally) they peak right at the Olympics.

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That would probably turn out badly. I doubt Sasha will show up, and plus Sasha fell a lot when she was training full time, I can only image her potential to implode after taking 3 years off and just starting to train again recently, plus due to her injury she isn't able to skate as much as she probably should. Alissa could implode too, I think she'll either keep it together and nationals then pull her usual or meltdown at the Olympics, or she will be edged out by Rachael and Ashley, possibly Mirai, at nationals and not go to the Olympics. Either way, I think this is her last season. It certainly sounded that way in the article that was published after she won nationals last year (with all the pretty pictures ), she said she hoped to go to the olympics and medal then tour. She also said if national champion was her highest honor then that would be fine too.....sounds like she's interested in pursuing a lot of stuff- travel, modeling, translating, more school, touring. I guess she has a lot of interests

I'm all but sure this will be Czisny's last season. But whether she goes out as an Olympian or "the one that could but didn't" all depends. At least she does have a major championship to her name, and will always be introduced at US shows as "national champion".

As exciting as this Nats might be, and as high as the anticipation is, it could turn out to be an implosion. 2006 Nats was poorly skated overall, likely due to the pressure of what was at stake. 2010 will be that and then some, since there is much more competition at the top level and only two spots to fight for, as opposed to three.

The only one I'll feel comfortable watching is Rachel Flatt. All the other contenders...man. If it comes down to a competition of "the last one standing"* I'm all but sure that Rachel will win the event. If there are multiple great skates (like the past two years) she could be edged out be either Wagner, Czisny, or (gasp) both.

So: Bomb potential of the contenders, from highest to lowest:

1. Czisny (self-explanatory IMO)
2. Wagner (her results have been all over the place the past two seasons)
3. Zhang (She would have been lower if not for her meltdown at SC)
4. Nagasu (she's a tough cookie, I'll say that)
5. Flatt (I've only seen her fall ONCE, and that was at SA...she's usually on her feet)

Actually, if Wagner bombs GPF, she **could** actually overtake Czisny as the one with highest bomb potential, although it might still be a virtual tie. Czisny does seem to be straightening out, but she can't handle pressure. Wagner gets too excited IMHO.

Hughes is on the comeback trail and Gilles is too unknown (i.e. not enough "data points" for a decent analysis) so I leave them off. And more articles seem to be popping up hyping Cohen for nationals, but I think we all know where that one is headed.

* by "the last one standing" I'm referring to a competition that you skatefans like to call a "splatfest".

2006 Nats was poorly skated overall, likely due to the pressure of what was at stake.

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I honestly don't remember the implosion... but then I have so much fun at nationals that the bad is basically erased from memory (for the most part)

I think US Nats is there for any lady to win. It just depends on who brings it that day. All these ladies should be psyched thinking about that. It really is there for the taking.

Am I the only one who wonders whether a poor showing at US Nats will make Caroline hang it up? It would be too bad, there are so many things to like about her. It just seems she doesn't have the mental toughness to compete. I want to give her a sports psychologist. Her in the K&C at Skate Canada after the LP was just heartbreaking.

Wicked said:

I think US Nats is there for any lady to win. It just depends on who brings it that day. All these ladies should be psyched thinking about that. It really is there for the taking.

Am I the only one who wonders whether a poor showing at US Nats will make Caroline hang it up? It would be too bad, there are so many things to like about her. It just seems she doesn't have the mental toughness to compete. I want to give her a sports psychologist. Her in the K&C at Skate Canada after the LP was just heartbreaking.

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I would be stunned if Caroline retired after a bad natioanals. She is still very young, it woud be foolish to hang it up when she is still too young to go to college. I would not be at all surprised if she left Mingzhu Li again though, for a drastic move across country or something (imagine if she went to Russian and worked with Tat?)

As for menal toughness I don't see her problems as being in that area, many of her programs were visibly clean last yeara but it is the bad technique that is hurting her in edge calls, downgrades big time. She has no speed, and no attempt to connect to the music.

Tinymavy15 said:

I would be stunned if Caroline retired after a bad natioanals. She is still very young, it woud be foolish to hang it up when she is still too young to go to college. I would not be at all surprised if she left Mingzhu Li again though, for a drastic move across country or something (imagine if she went to Russian and worked with Tat?)

As for menal toughness I don't see her problems as being in that area, many of her programs were visibly clean last yeara but it is the bad technique that is hurting her in edge calls, downgrades big time. She has no speed, and no attempt to connect to the music.

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Tiny - since you're a skater, here's a question for you: how long would it take for a skater at Caroline's level to improve their technique? And if its doable, why not just do it?

Another article- this one by the AP (via NBC Olympics):

http://www.nbcolympics.com/news-fea...ter?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Quotes from Cohen, Wagner, and some U.S. coaches.

I think this article says it all. I do hope someone steps up to the plate, and quickly...

Tonichelle said:

I honestly don't remember the implosion... but then I have so much fun at nationals that the bad is basically erased from memory (for the most part)

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I do! Alissa fell like 5 times after having the best international season of her life, Bebe fell a lot too, Michelle didn't compete because of her back, Emily was ok but nothing special, Kimmie and Sasha were good, but besides that it was pretty disappointing.

That article was interesting, but I think if the US ladies can do well enough without medaling then it shouldn't be a big disappointment for the US. I mean, Kimmie and Emily came in 8th and 10th but no one poo-pooed that. If the two US ladies that go finish somewhere in the top 10 then I'd say it's a job well done and pretty impressive. If Rachael hits her 3-3 she could easily be 4th or 5th, if Wagner's on she should make top 10, and if Alissa came in 11th at worlds last year with such a bad short program even if she does a good short and then pulls her usual in the long she should make top 10 too, and we all know Mirai has great potential and pretty much refuses to fall. So while the US ladies might not be the "stars" of the Olympics, with the exception of Yu Na, there really don't seem to be any major stand outs in the ladies discipline even internationally, as Joannie, Miki, and Mao have been underwhelming so far.

One more thing. Anyone know if Kimmie is planning to show up for nationals?

No Kimmie at Nationals. Her injury removed her from contention.

silverlake22 said:

I do! Alissa fell like 5 times after having the best international season of her life,

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Par for the course, even then, for her.

Bebe fell a lot too,

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again nothing new, even then.

Michelle didn't compete because of her back,

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only the die hards held onto the hope she'd make it.

Emily was ok but nothing special,

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matter of opinion, I thought it was a crock she was left off the team so that a very injured/pained Kwan could have another shot. She had me at the edge of her seat and I wasn't in her corner until that night.

Kimmie and Sasha were good, but besides that it was pretty disappointing.

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again matter of perspective. Ladies skating has never been the most exciting to me, but it is -for others- the reason to get up and watch.