Mid-Season Report: U.S. Ladies, R.D. Style

PolymerBob · Dec 1, 2009

silverlake22 said:
So while the US ladies might not be the "stars" of the Olympics, with the exception of Yu Na, there really don't seem to be any major stand outs in the ladies discipline even internationally, as Joannie, Miki, and Mao have been underwhelming so far.

Well I have some bad news. If Yu-Na is the only ladies' star, then she is no star. Nobody wants to watch Usain Bolt race high school kids. People want a hard-fought contest, not a coronation. The stars of these Olympics will be the men, pairs and dancers.........

....................... unless Yu-Na gets upset.

R.D. · Dec 1, 2009

silverlake22 said:
One more thing. Anyone know if Kimmie is planning to show up for nationals?

ETA: Well, technically she *could* show up. But she's not actually competing.

silverlake22 · Dec 1, 2009

PolymerBob said:
Well I have some bad news. If Yu-Na is the only ladies' star, then she is no star. Nobody wants to watch Usain Bolt race high school kids. People want a hard-fought contest, not a coronation. The stars of these Olympics will be the men, pairs and dancers.........

....................... unless Yu-Na gets upset.

I never thought of that, though you make a good point. Yu Na could get upset though if the fans are as crazy about her as they seem....she is shy and i'm sure it probably annoys her. I think there is the POTENTIAL for there to be a great competition in the ladies, Yu Na will still probably win, but a Mao, Miki, and Joannie on their top games could put up quite a fight for second and third. We have all seen these skaters be amazing, just not really recently, BUT maybe this is a good thing because it means they are planning to peak at the olympics. Plus it will be fun to see if there are any spoilers, like at the last olympics when Elena Gedevanishvilli threw down that awesome short as the youngest and tiniest competitor in the ladies event :clap:

. I would like to see Carolina do well at the Olympics, but she is so unpredictable, Alissa and Ashley have nothing on her.

That's too bad about Kimmie, I really like her athletic style of skating. Her dresses are always pretty too, with the long skirts that don't look like underwear. I wonder if she'll come back once her injury is better

R.D. · Dec 1, 2009

silverlake22 said:
I do! Alissa fell like 5 times after having the best international season of her life, Bebe fell a lot too, Michelle didn't compete because of her back, Emily was ok but nothing special, Kimmie and Sasha were good, but besides that it was pretty disappointing.

Exactly. And I didn't even think those two were all THAT great. (Meissner fell on the easiest jump in her program at the end! I remember that.) But good enough, certainly.

That article was interesting, but I think if the US ladies can do well enough without medaling then it shouldn't be a big disappointment for the US. I mean, Kimmie and Emily came in 8th and 10th but no one poo-pooed that.

If you're referring to the Torino Games I believe it was actually 6th and 7th (respectively). All US Ladies were in the top 10, Cohen of course was the only medalist.

If the two US ladies that go finish somewhere in the top 10 then I'd say it's a job well done and pretty impressive.

Perhaps to skatefans but not to the people at large. In general, we are used to having contenders and not having one is enough of a disappointment in itself. Maybe a US skater in another discipline (Lysacek? Belbin/Agosto?) will steal the show with an OGM- only then, I think, will that disappointment be offset.

If Rachael hits her 3-3 she could easily be 4th or 5th, if Wagner's on she should make top 10, and if Alissa came in 11th at worlds last year with such a bad short program even if she does a good short and then pulls her usual in the long she should make top 10 too, and we all know Mirai has great potential and pretty much refuses to fall. So while the US ladies might not be the "stars" of the Olympics, with the exception of Yu Na, there really don't seem to be any major stand outs in the ladies discipline even internationally, as Joannie, Miki, and Mao have been underwhelming so far.

Perhaps, but the GP is ALWAYS the worst indicator of the Olys. I would not count anyone (in contention) out at this point...Hopefully the American ladies can send their best team, do the best they can- we will likely have to look to other disciplines as far as medal/OGM hopes go...

silverlake22 · Dec 1, 2009

R.D. said:
If you're referring to the Torino Games I believe it was actually 6th and 7th (respectively). All US Ladies were in the top 10, Cohen of course was the only medalist.

.

You are right, I typed the numbers wrong. What you say about the Grand Prix is also true, normally skaters that do well there aren't always able to keep up the momentum later in the season. I just hope more skaters go for triple-triples at the Olympics, esp Miki and Mao who we all know can easily do them. Also if Joannie can get that much height on her jumps she should be able to pull it off too. If Yu Na and Rachael are the only ones to attempt triple-triples, it will be a little boring

R.D. · Dec 1, 2009

silverlake22 said:
You are right, I typed the numbers wrong. What you say about the Grand Prix is also true, normally skaters that do well there aren't always able to keep up the momentum later in the season. I just hope more skaters go for triple-triples at the Olympics, esp Miki and Mao who we all know can easily do them. Also if Joannie can get that much height on her jumps she should be able to pull it off too. If Yu Na and Rachael are the only ones to attempt triple-triples, it will be a little boring

Depends on how others do. As for the Americans, I think Flatt is the only one who is planning a 3-3 in BOTH the SP and FS.

silverlake22 · Dec 1, 2009

R.D. said:
Depends on how others do. As for the Americans, I think Flatt is the only one who is planning a 3-3 in BOTH the SP and FS.

...Caroline usually does too, but it gets downgraded a lot, and she's a long shot for the Olympics. And actually, a lot of lower level skaters in the ladies event do triple-triples, Sarah Hecken and Elena Glebova being two of them, Elene Ged can do them but hasn't in competition recently. Goes to show how big a factor PCS is

R.D. · Dec 5, 2009

New Wagner article

http://www.universalsports.com/news...dge?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

...with an update on how she did at the GPF. :yes:

Trewyn · Dec 5, 2009

^^Thanks for posting! Ashley has been flying under the radar. But a lot of articles about her lately; she's starting to be noticed! Nice picture too

.

"It might be a while before I reach that perfect level of skating I want to reach," Wagner added. "For now, though, I think we're improving and things are going pretty well."

That quote makes me hopeful that she's not going to retire to go to university next season...

R.D. · Dec 5, 2009

So here's how things stack up post-GPF:

Favorites for the US team: Flatt, Wagner (but things can happen!!)

The latter is starting to gain a little consistency I notice. But if she can't bring it on the day of the Nats SP, she could be done for the season. Her GPF placement *may* help her if she finishes 3rd overall and another skater who has more to prove (say, Zhang) finishes 1st or 2nd.

Czisny is DEFINITELY done if she flubs the SP. (I don't think her FS is technically up to par to catch everyone else up)

Flatt has a bit of a cushion because of her highly-technical FS, and could probably be considered the favorite to win the event actually- although someone else with more talent overall could hit and steal the show, particularly if she messes up.

The four that I think are going to end up fighting it out- and it could be decided in the FS- are Flatt, Wagner, Czisny, Nagasu. Zhang could be in the mix as well but I think she will miss out on the top 2. Czisny falters under pressure, Nagasu gets hosed with DGs, Wagner is inconsistent (although she may be less so than in the past), others likely won't be a factor.

Then, hard to ignore is all the talk and hype of Cohen returning at Nats. It remains to be seen if she will actually do so (I doubt it) but if she does, she could potentially swoop in and bump somebody off the team that otherwise would have gone.

Bennett · Dec 5, 2009

Wagner did well tonight. But she may not at Nationals with her nerves. More so for Alissa.

Mirai may be stronger under pressures only if she rotates everything.

I was surprised to see Cohen on TV news on trains in Japan several days ago, saying that she would come back. Has there been any new move from her except for talks?

R.D. · Dec 5, 2009

Bennett said:
Wagner did well tonight. But she may not at Nationals with her nerves. More so for Alissa.

Mirai may be stronger under pressures only if she rotates everything.

Well, Wagner could do one of two things under the pressure: a) rise to the occasion or b) implode under it.

In fact, if she falters at Nats it should be enough to keep her off the team- it'll be a tough call if one of the skaters who beats her is Czisny.

I was surprised to see Cohen on TV news on trains in Japan several days ago, saying that she would come back. Has there been any new move from her except for talks?

Nope.

silverlake22 · Dec 5, 2009

R.D. said:
Well, Wagner could do one of two things under the pressure: a) rise to the occasion or b) implode under it.

In fact, if she falters at Nats it should be enough to keep her off the team- it'll be a tough call if one of the skaters who beats her is Czisny.

.

Ashley rarely "implodes" in the long though. Normally, if she messes up, it's in the short. I think the 1st and 2nd place finishers will be the Olympic team even with this Ashley GPF edge. The only way I think 1st and 2nd didn't go to the Olympics would be if:
-Caroline comes in 2nd, Ashley comes in a close 3rd. I think the USFSA would send Ashley, and use her GPF results as the reason why.
-Caroline comes in 2nd and Alissa comes in a close 3rd. The USFSA loves Alissa and could use her better results at the grand prix as reason to send her instead.
The reason I say Caroline and not anyone else is because she did very poorly at SC, she's young, and the judges seem to try and hold her back. That's why I think neither situation is likely to happen even if Caroline deserves to win silver.

I think the US team will be Rachael and Ashley, but I really hope it's Rachael and Mirai. As for Sasha, I really hope she doesn't take a spot away from someone who really deserves it. If she steals a spot from Rachael I will be so mad. Rachael is really the one US girl who should definitely get to go to the Olympics. It would be silly to leave her off the team

MKFSfan · Dec 5, 2009

I said I would revisit Ashley after GPF, and while I do like her chances a bit more, I still feel Rachael is the front runner. If Ashley hadn't been hit with downgrades, she still would've ended up lower than Rachael's over all score at SA with the missing final spin and fall in the SP. Obviously both have places/points they could improve in by Nationals, and if they do, I believe Rachael will be at least 10 points ahead. But we will see! Hopefully all the Ladies bring their "A" game to Nationals and make it a real competition.

R.D. · Dec 5, 2009

Let's hope. Yes, Flatt made herself the clear favorite after her SA performance. But can she duplicate that performance? make that last spin count?

I still think that she can be outdone if one of Nagasu, Czisny or Wagner really goes all out in the SP- Flatt really is not capable, it seems, of scoring much beyond 60 points even when she's solid. Nagasu or Czisny could approach 65 or higher if on.

R.D. · Dec 5, 2009

silverlake22 said:
Ashley rarely "implodes" in the long though. Normally, if she messes up, it's in the short. I think the 1st and 2nd place finishers will be the Olympic team even with this Ashley GPF edge. The only way I think 1st and 2nd didn't go to the Olympics would be if:
-Caroline comes in 2nd, Ashley comes in a close 3rd. I think the USFSA would send Ashley, and use her GPF results as the reason why.
-Caroline comes in 2nd and Alissa comes in a close 3rd. The USFSA loves Alissa and could use her better results at the grand prix as reason to send her instead.
The reason I say Caroline and not anyone else is because she did very poorly at SC, she's young, and the judges seem to try and hold her back. That's why I think neither situation is likely to happen even if Caroline deserves to win silver.

That's a good point. I think you're right. Zhang did herself in but I seriously do not see her in the top 2 (I see 3rd at best) so I don't think this will be an issue.

On that topic, I did start a poll on this very issue- if you think Wagner should go to Olys even if she's 3rd. (note that it's a public poll though)

http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/showthread.php?p=438078#post438078

I think the US team will be Rachael and Ashley, but I really hope it's Rachael and Mirai. As for Sasha, I really hope she doesn't take a spot away from someone who really deserves it. If she steals a spot from Rachael I will be so mad. Rachael is really the one US girl who should definitely get to go to the Olympics. It would be silly to leave her off the team

Funny how at the end of last year, and during the offseason it was all Flatt/Zhang. Then, after NHK it's all Flatt/Wagner. While I agree that that's probably the most statistically LIKELY outcome, last year proved that anything can happen. And ITA about Cohen- although if it's Czisny that she ends up taking a spot from, well, it could be argued that Alyssa brought it on herself with that disastrous SP at worlds...had she hit that, she might have been 8th instead and she would be going, too.

PolymerBob · Dec 5, 2009

I am going to post my take on the US senior ladies, but I will be different and work only within the published rules. If the USFSA wants to go outside their published rules, and they very well may, I have no control over that.

OK, according to published rules, the USFSA will use 6 events to determine the Olympic team. These are .....

1) 2010 National Championship
2) 2009 Senior Grand Prix Final
3) 2009 Worlds
4) 2009 Four Continents
5) 2009 Junior Worlds
6) 2009 Junior Grand Prix Final

So here is where we stand.

Rachael - Very good at Worlds, mediocre at 4CC.
Caroline - Very good at 4CC and podium at Junior Worlds.
Ashley - podium at Junior Worlds and 4th at GP Final
Alissa - Poor at Worlds and 4CC
Mirai - no points scored
Sasha - no points scored

(( Now wait just a darn minute, Bob! ...... What about Rachael's wonderful, breathtaking performance at Skate America? What about Caroline's horrid, disgraceful implosion at Skate Canada? ))
I don't see those events on the list. So according to published rules, which is what I am going by, they don't count.

So I would say Rachael, Caroline and Ashley have earned the most points going into Nationals. So they will be given the most leeway. Alissa, Mirai and Sasha have less. So the bottom 3 girls would have to win gold or silver with a healthy margin over Miss Bronze. A win of just a few points may get them pushed off the team.

Once again, if the USFSA goes outside their published rules, anything can happen.

R.D. · Dec 5, 2009

^ One also must keep in mind that Zhang missed this year's GPF so if you have them in order, I would personally put Wagner above Zhang according to those criteria (4th at GPF (2) vs. 4th at 2009 4CCs (4) )

It looks more and more like it might be the top two that will go, barring an upset by a non-contender. I do think they should look at the whole situation, rather than ONLY those events listed. Wagner and Flatt have an advantage due to solid performances at GPF and Worlds, respectively. Zhang has her 4th at 4CC's but will that help her much? I don't see her getting the benefit of the doubt this time. Still, number one on that list IS the 2010 Nats so top 2 there is critical for anyone hoping to get on the team.

Mathman · Dec 5, 2009

It is hard to guess how the selection committee views its own rules. There is no mention of "points" awarded for various feats of derring-do. Here is the document (page 4).

http://www.usfigureskating.org/cont... WOG FSK Athlete Selection Procedures web.pdf

I think the main point is contained in the words "to field the most competitiove team" and "to determinme the athletes that will have the most performance impact."

I think that Worlds and Four Continents are listed behind the latest Grand Prix Final simply because that was then, this is now. The rules also mention placement and competitive field. I don't think the competitive field at last year's Junior Worlds (Caroline finished behind Aliona Leonova, ahead of Wagner) was strong enough to give much of a boost to Caroline's chances.

Wagner beat Rochette and Leonova while losing to Kim, Ando and Suzuki. Not bad. But the big number 1 (rather, the big letter a -- U.S. Nationals) is yet to come.

silverlake22 · Dec 5, 2009

Ok so Alissa did bad at worlds and 4CC but she did win the US title last year (though her victory is highly controversial). You wonder if some events hold more weight than others. 4CC is not as big a competition as worlds and maybe even US nationals, so I don't think Caroline really has an edge. Also, Rachael and Alissa were alternates for the GPF and Caroline was far from even being considered for it. Sasha has no events and I really don't think its fair if the USFSA lets her go to the Olympics again. If she does well at nationals that's only ONE COMPETITION, and the rules say they look at many competitions, even if she showed up and won (which is doubtful) I think the US should think twice before sending her, especially if the 2nd place finisher is Czisny, Zhang, or Nagasu-big implosion potential.

I wish Sasha would just be sensible and make up her mind and not show

Mid-Season Report: U.S. Ladies, R.D. Style

PolymerBob

R.D.

silverlake22

R.D.

silverlake22

R.D.

silverlake22

R.D.

Trewyn

R.D.

Bennett

R.D.

silverlake22

MKFSfan

R.D.

R.D.

PolymerBob

R.D.

Mathman

silverlake22

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