Mid-Season Report: U.S. Ladies, R.D. Style

Joesitz (RIP) · Dec 5, 2009

Nerves affect every skater and every performer in show business. It's a question of how to handle the nerves for each skater. Mao's had her share of nerves this season as has YuNa. It hasn't affected Ashley as yet (but it will when she becomes a gold contender.)

Ashley, the most overlooked skater in the US by media hype and fan raves is doing quite well under the coaching of Priscilla. Two clean routines at GPF! in front of international judges whereas Alena won the Junior Championship.

The future looks bright for Ashley. Only time and work will tell. She doesn't cower.

As for the US Nats, the winner goes to Vancouver and the USFS decides who else goes

R.D. · Dec 5, 2009

While I hope Wagner makes it, she also needs a MUCH stronger SP or she'll be left behind in the standings. She was dead last in the GPF SP (although to her credit, she pulled up to 4th in the FS)...if she goes to the Olympics and does similarly she'll be well into the 2nd group, possibly even the 3rd if she falls, and depending on how the others do. Maybe change up the jump layout a bit?

Actually, she's not the only one. Nagasu is the only American lady to break 60 points in the SP this season, but her FS is really weak and would probably have her well in the teens as far as Oly placement goes. I'd have it in this order as far as scoring potential goes:

Flatt (highest FS scoring potential IMHO)
Czisny (highest SP scoring potential)
Zhang
Nagasu/Wagner

Joesitz (RIP) · Dec 5, 2009

^^^
Good points, RD. But as I said before, the Nats will determine one skater for the Olys. The second skater if decided by the USFS irreguardless of Nats but moreso on their body of work.

silverlake22 · Dec 5, 2009

R.D. said:
Actually, she's not the only one. Nagasu is the only American lady to break 60 points in the SP this season, but her FS is really weak and would probably have her well in the teens as far as Oly placement goes. I'd have it in this order as far as scoring potential goes:

I wish Mirai would change her LP, I feel it's weak through no fault of her own, Carmen just REALLY does not suit her. The same goes for Mao's programs this season. If Mirai presents her LP and rotates her triples at nationals though, I wouldn't count her out.

Ashley's short is not that strong and she often makes mistakes in it, Alissa's LP has been consistently mediocre jump wise this season, Caroline has major issues to work on, which just leaves Rachael, who will probably win anyhow. When the pressure is really bad, Alissa also tends to make mistakes in the short. If she has a bad short and her usual long she probably won't get second. If Ashley messes up her short the way she did last year, she probably won't be able to pull up to second either. Caroline unless she has a major turnaround I can't see being higher than 3rd or 4th. If Mirai does a good short, she could easily be a few points in front of Rachael going into the long. Rachael will probably do a great long as usual, but if Mirai rotates her jumps and presents, she should be able to hang on to second.

So basically it comes down to the short, if Ashley gets a decent score and Alissa is clean, one of them will probably make the team, and the results should be close. If one messes up, the spot is likely to go to the other. If both mess up, Mirai has a good shot at getting the second spot with a solid long. Anyone else see it this way?

Layfan · Dec 5, 2009

R.D. said:
While I hope Wagner makes it, she also needs a MUCH stronger SP or she'll be left behind in the standings. She was dead last in the GPF SP (although to her credit, she pulled up to 4th in the FS)...if she goes to the Olympics and does similarly she'll be well into the 2nd group, possibly even the 3rd if she falls, and depending on how the others do. Maybe change up the jump layout a bit?

Actually, she's not the only one. Nagasu is the only American lady to break 60 points in the SP this season, but her FS is really weak and would probably have her well in the teens as far as Oly placement goes. I'd have it in this order as far as scoring potential goes:

Flatt (highest FS scoring potential IMHO)
Czisny (highest SP scoring potential)
Zhang
Nagasu/Wagner

Czisny scored 63-plus in the SP at skate Canada. The question is can she do even better than that or is that her limit? It's pretty telling that Kim Yuna made several mistakes in her short at the GP final and had to "settle" for 65.

It would have been interesting to see Flatt's score in the SP at SA had she not fallen. She was pretty close to 60 with the fall if I remember corrently 58 something, I think.

R.D. · Dec 5, 2009

Layfan said:
Czisny scored 63-plus in the SP at skate Canada.

Oh yeah, I forgot about that! How could I. Thanks for reminding me.

PolymerBob · Dec 5, 2009

I think we may be agonizing over this more than the USFSA will. Barring something unforseen happening, the men and dance teams will be the American stars of the Olympics. The USFSA will most like hype them rather than the ladies.

When the 200,000,000 once-every-4-years American skating fans tune in, they will be expecting to hear about the ladies. Imagine their surprise when they keep hearing about men and ice dancers. Their reaction will be, "Where are the ladies? Everyone knows they are the REAL stars of figure skating."

What will they think when they see the ladies' podium with no Americans on it?

Mathman · Dec 5, 2009

PolymerBob said:
When the 200,000,000 once-every-4-years American skating fans tune in, they will be expecting to hear about the ladies.

I think the USFSA better start putting some glamour shots of Meryl Davis out there.

bigsisjiejie · Dec 6, 2009

Joesitz said:
^^^
Good points, RD. But as I said before, the Nats will determine one skater for the Olys. The second skater if decided by the USFS irreguardless of Nats but moreso on their body of work.

Disagree. That's how it used to be up until last year, the Ntl champ got an automatic pass thru to Worlds (or 2006 and previous, OG). But the USFS has given themselves more wiggle room for this year. How would you determine a situation where 1-2-3 at US Nationals 2010 goes to Alissa-Rachael-Ashley in that order, with less than 1-2 total points separating gold thru bronze? Let's say Alissa performs true to pattern--skating strong SP and very flawed FS, and Rachael and Ashley both with pretty clean SP's and FS's. In this kind of situation, which is entirely possible, I can certainly foresee USFS making a case for passing over Alissa and sending Rachael and Ashley.

I think if the Ntl Champ ends up being Rachael or Ashley, she will be named to the OG team. Anybody else ending up in #1 Champ spot better do so in overwhelming fashion with two fabulously executed programs, lest they risk being passed over. This applies primarily to Alissa and Mirai, as I think Zhang has already taken herself out of the running for 2010 OG regardless, and I'm discounting Sasha by a factor of 100%. All others skating at Ntls have nowhere near enough gravitas with international judges to be given an OG spot by USFS, no matter how brilliantly they skate.

bekalc · Dec 6, 2009

PolymerBob said:
What about Rachael's wonderful, breathtaking performance at Skate America? What about Caroline's horrid, disgraceful implosion at Skate Canada? ))
I don't see those events on the list. So according to published rules, which is what I am going by, they don't count.

Even though the USFSA doesn't specifically say they are looking at GP events, you better believe that they actually ARE. The fact that the international judges are slamming Zhang hard for her issues, is not going to be lost on the USFSA at ALL.

It hasn't affected Ashley as yet (but it will when she becomes a gold contender.)

Ashley skated pretty poorly in the long at NHK.

To be frank at this point I think the team is between Rachael, Wagner, and Alissa in that order. With I think Rachael and Ashley having the best shot.

janetfan · Dec 6, 2009

Joesitz said:
^^^
Good points, RD. But as I said before, the Nats will determine one skater for the Olys. The second skater if decided by the USFS irreguardless of Nats but moreso on their body of work.

There is a first time for everything Joe.

Gold and Silver medalists at Natls will be selected for the Natl team barring some very unusual circumstances. :yes:

The only skater at Natls with a notable "body of work" is Sasha - and most here claim she won't show.

If Sasha does not show Gold and Silver go to Vancouver.

demarinis5 · Dec 6, 2009

bigsisjiejie said:
Disagree. That's how it used to be up until last year, the Ntl champ got an automatic pass thru to Worlds (or 2006 and previous, OG). But the USFS has given themselves more wiggle room for this year. How would you determine a situation where 1-2-3 at US Nationals 2010 goes to Alissa-Rachael-Ashley in that order, with less than 1-2 total points separating gold thru bronze? Let's say Alissa performs true to pattern--skating strong SP and very flawed FS, and Rachael and Ashley both with pretty clean SP's and FS's. In this kind of situation, which is entirely possible, I can certainly foresee USFS making a case for passing over Alissa and sending Rachael and Ashley.

I think if the Ntl Champ ends up being Rachael or Ashley, she will be named to the OG team. Anybody else ending up in #1 Champ spot better do so in overwhelming fashion with two fabulously executed programs, lest they risk being passed over. This applies primarily to Alissa and Mirai, as I think Zhang has already taken herself out of the running for 2010 OG regardless, and I'm discounting Sasha by a factor of 100%. All others skating at Ntls have nowhere near enough gravitas with international judges to be given an OG spot by USFS, no matter how brilliantly they skate.

You have a very realistic view of what might actually happen at Nationals and I agree. Also agree with the rest of your post.

janetfan · Dec 6, 2009

bigsisjiejie said:
Disagree. That's how it used to be up until last year, the Ntl champ got an automatic pass thru to Worlds (or 2006 and previous, OG). But the USFS has given themselves more wiggle room for this year. How would you determine a situation where 1-2-3 at US Nationals 2010 goes to Alissa-Rachael-Ashley in that order, with less than 1-2 total points separating gold thru bronze? Let's say Alissa performs true to pattern--skating strong SP and very flawed FS, and Rachael and Ashley both with pretty clean SP's and FS's. In this kind of situation, which is entirely possible, I can certainly foresee USFS making a case for passing over Alissa and sending Rachael and Ashley.

I think if the Ntl Champ ends up being Rachael or Ashley, she will be named to the OG team. Anybody else ending up in #1 Champ spot better do so in overwhelming fashion with two fabulously executed programs, lest they risk being passed over. This applies primarily to Alissa and Mirai, as I think Zhang has already taken herself out of the running for 2010 OG regardless, and I'm discounting Sasha by a factor of 100%. All others skating at Ntls have nowhere near enough gravitas with international judges to be given an OG spot by USFS, no matter how brilliantly they skate.

Your post makes good points from a FANS pov. What you just said doesn't hold up and has never happened before. The new rule is not related to the US Skaters but has to do with the ISU and the IOC.

Under your scenario, why would Alissa bother to show up at Natls? Do you think Alissa is that stupid? Why would Carroll even show up with Mirai?

Alissa could win and if passed over I believe she could get a court order to look into why she was passed over.
If she wins the US championship again she will be on the team or there will be a legal battle which I believe Alissa would win. It would not be settled in time for Vancouver and Alissa would be skating there.

But it is ridiculous to think US Skating would do that to anyone other than a Harding or a similar scenario involving ethics.

We are not a dictatorship and we are not run like the Russian and French federations which are little more than dictatorships.

Remember when US Skating tried to keep Harding off the Team. They were blocked by the courts. Alissa might have a stronger case than Harding since she would not be under a cloud.

There is wiggle room - and that is all it is. There is no committee that is going to throw out the Gold and Silver medalists unless there is a very good reason for doing so.

If I am wrong then I see the great competitive tradition of US Nationals being lost and destroyed.
What a great shame that would be.

PolymerBob · Dec 6, 2009

We may also be forgetting that there is a difference between winning and winning. If Mirai wins by a point or 2, she could be left off the team. But if she wins by 15 points, she will probably go.

demarinis5 · Dec 6, 2009

janetfan said:
Your post makes good points from a FANS pov. What you just said doesn't hold up and has never happened before. The new rule is not related to the US Skaters but has to do with the ISU and the IOC.
Under your scenario, why would Alissa bother to show up at Natls? Do you think Alissa is that stupid? Why would Carroll even show up with Mirai?

Alissa could win and if passed over I believe she could get a court order to look into why she was passed over.
If she wins the US championship again she will be on the team or there will be a legal battle which I believe Alissa would win. It would not be settled in time for Vancouver and Alissa would be skating there.

But it is ridiculous to think US Skating would do that to anyone other than a Harding or a similar scenario involving ethics.

We are not a dictatorship and we are not run like the Russian and French federations which are little more than dictatorships.

Remember when US Skating tried to keep Harding off the Team. They were blocked by the courts. Alissa might have a stronger case than Harding since she would not be under a cloud.

There is wiggle room - and that is all it is. There is no committee that is going to throw out the Gold and Silver medalists unless there is a very good reason for doing so.

If I am wrong then I see the great competitive tradition of US Nationals being lost and destroyed.
What a great shame that would be.

My understanding is that It does effect the US skaters. You right it has never happened before but the rule now in effect was implemented by the US so it does affect US skaters. Going by some of the interviews that I have read the U.S. skaters are very aware of the new rule. The rule clearly states that placement at U.S. Nationals will not be the only criteria that will be used for the Olympic team that sounds like a lot of wiggle room to me for whatever scenario might occur legal or oherwise.

janetfan · Dec 6, 2009

demarinis5 said:
My understanding is that It does effect the US skaters. You right it has never happened before but the rule now in effect was implemented by the US so it does affect US skaters. Going by some of the interviews that I have read the U.S. skaters are very aware of the new rule. The rule clearly states that placement at U.S. Nationals will not be the only criteria that will be used for the Olympic team that sounds like a lot of wiggle room to me for whatever scenario might occur legal or oherwise.

Thinking about this I just realized the Harding case may have been different.
She did win the US title and I don't remember if she was selected for the Olympic team. She probably was - and then when the police investigation traced the Kerrigan attack back to her "associates" US Skating removed her from the Natl team.

Harding went to court and got a temporary ruling which put her back on the team.

In the case of Alissa and Mirai, if they were to come 1-2 at Natls and then get bypassed for maybe Rachael and Ashley or Sasha I think US Skating might be within their rights - but they would have a fight on their hands.

It would create very bad feelings and set a precedent that would seriously damage the importance of US Nationals.

PolymerBob · Dec 6, 2009

There are actually 2 degrees of wiggle room. First is the PCS which can be used to hold a skater up or down. Most of us assume that the USFSA has direct control over how judges judge. I don't know if that's true, but this year, it seemed somebody wanted Alissa to win.

Then there are the new rules. So there really is no basis for legal action by a skater.

janetfan · Dec 6, 2009

PolymerBob said:
There are actually 2 degrees of wiggle room. First is the PCS which can be used to hold a skater up or down. Most of us assume that the USFSA has direct control over how judges judge. I don't know if that's true, but this year, it seemed somebody wanted Alissa to win.

Then there are the new rules. So there really is no basis for legal action by a skater.

Yes but let's leave questionable judging out and consider that the results will be fair.

Let's pretend that Mirai wins and Alissa finishes second, Rachael third and Ashley 4th.

I seriously doubt that Mirai and Alissa will both be passed over based on the results.

Are you and others saying that Mirai, as Natl champion would be on the team but that Alissa could be bumped by either Rachael or Ashley?

I would hate for that to happen - and not because Mirai and Alissa are my two favorites. I would hate for Rachael or Ashley to get bumped too if they finished 1 and 2. Let's say if Sasha finishes third. US Skating decides to bump either Ashley or Rachael and put Sasha on the natl team.

For me, that would be the end of US Natls as a competition that I love and have watched for many years. It would become like a 4CC or GP event to me. Maybe fun to watch but of no real significance. Removing the competitive nature and spirit of Natls would destroy it for me.

I can't believe I am the only fan who feels that way. Atleast not for the fans who have watched for more than a few years anyway.

PolymerBob · Dec 6, 2009

I still think the magnitude of the win, not just the placement, will have a bearing on who gets picked for the team.

There is a big difference between ....

1) Mirai ......... 184.23
2) Alissa ....... 183.94
2) Ashley .......183.46
4) Rachael ....182.55

........ and ................

1) Mirai ......... 187.84
2) Alissa ....... 181.49
2) Ashley .......164.76
4) Rachael ....162.38

I would guess that in the 1st case, Ashley and Rachael will be the Olympic team. In the 2nd, it would likely be Mirai and Alissa.

demarinis5 · Dec 6, 2009

^^Janetfan

Any of the hypothetical scenarios that you mentioned in your post is possible.

The U.S. skaters especially the ladies with just 2 spots available for the O team, took the GP events very seriously because of the new rule. Ashley even said it herself that making the GPF not only has given her confidence but an advantage over the other ladies at Nationals and she is right because of the new rule criteria. Same for Rachael's 2nd place finish at SA, her consistency and outscoring YuNa gives her an advantage too. The US does not have a lady front runner for a medal (I have taken Sasha out of the equation only because she is questionable right know), so they will want to send 2 ladies who will not embarrass them and possibly have a chance to medal if there are meltdowns from the top skaters, it is a not such a long shot that bronze could be possible for the US, ice is slippery.

Mid-Season Report: U.S. Ladies, R.D. Style

Joesitz (RIP)

R.D.

Joesitz (RIP)

silverlake22

Layfan

R.D.

PolymerBob

Mathman

bigsisjiejie

bekalc

janetfan

Match Penalty

demarinis5

Gold for the Winter Prince!

janetfan

Match Penalty

PolymerBob

demarinis5

Gold for the Winter Prince!

janetfan

Match Penalty

PolymerBob

janetfan

Match Penalty

PolymerBob

demarinis5

Gold for the Winter Prince!

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