Mid-Season Report: U.S. Ladies, R.D. Style

janetfan · Dec 6, 2009

PolymerBob said:
I still think the magnitude of the win, not just the placement, will have a bearing on who gets picked for the team.

There is a big difference between ....

1) Mirai ......... 184.23
2) Alissa ....... 183.94
2) Ashley .......183.46
4) Rachael ....182.55

........ and ................

1) Mirai ......... 187.84
2) Alissa ....... 181.49
2) Ashley .......164.76
4) Rachael ....162.38

I would guess that in the 1st case, Ashley and Rachael will be the Olympic team. In the 2nd, it would likely be Mirai and Alissa.

Thanks for the example.
I will believe it when I see it though.

For me if you would replace Ashley and Rachael with a "returning" Michelle and Sasha - then I could see Alissa getting bumped in your first set of scores.

I still wouldn't like it but could see a "body of work/results" taking a precedent.
Under no circumstances would I feel good about the National champion getting bumped even for a Michelle or Sasha comeback that just fell short.

The scenario you describe is how the French, Russians and Japanese and probably many other Federations do it. It feels very un-American to me.

It is also why our Natls have such a grand tradition. Because up until this year they always mattered and determined the Natl team.

Many skaters have said the pressure at Natls is greater at times than Worlds.
Why lose this tradition and why take away such a great pressured packed competition?

And what better way to prepare a skater for an event like the Olympics than making them medal at Nationals?

It really doesn't make any sense to me and I feel it definitely weakens our skater's chances by sending a clear and unmistakeable signal that it is OK if you can't handle the pressure at Natls. "We like you better anyway."

Mathman · Dec 6, 2009

Philip Hersh (my guy!

) reported around the time that the new rules were published that he interviewed a member of the USFSA selection committee about it. He asked point blank if the new rules meant that the U.S. champion might not be selected for the Olympic team, and the answer was something along the lines of, "Goodness no!"

Am I remebering right that the new rules govern the Olympics only? The U.S. champion still automatically goes to Worlds. At the time the new rules were put forth it was made clear that the reason for the change was to protect the USFSA's ownership of U.S. Nationals against the USOC, who could claim it as the "Olympic qualifying event" under the old rules.

I think Joe is right. The U.S. champion will go to the Olympics, the USFSA reserves "wiggle room" with respect to the second spot.

I also agree with janetfan. The USFSA would never trash its own showcase event, U.S. Nationals.

demarinis5 · Dec 6, 2009

So there is a chance for Caroline Zhang or Alexe Giles to go to Vancouver if either of them win the National Title that is good to know, something to work hard for.

janetfan · Dec 6, 2009

demarinis5 said:
So there is a chance for Caroline Zhang or Alexe Giles to go to Vancouver if either of them win the National Title that is good to know, something to work hard for.

Of course they have a chance and it is the same as the other girls.

This year is different too because we only have two Ladies going to Vancouver and Worlds.

If we had three going I am sure the Gold and Silver medalist would be guaranteed a spot and only the bronze might get bumped. I said "only" because this still feels like speculation to me.

Again, why would anybody show up if they didn't have a chance? Would Alissa really bother to skate at Natls if she knew winning it would somehow get her disqualified from the Olympic Team?

It is just fun to talk about but as mathman said, US Skating is not going to slit it's own throat by ruining it's #1 attraction.

Olympia · Dec 6, 2009

Interesting that we're thinking about 1994, and the Tonya Harding ruling. As I remember, that was a year of a perfect storm of events, not just the famous assault on Kerrigan. I have a strong recollection that, like this year, we had only two spots for the ladies' Olympic team. (Remember that our highest placer in 1993 was Kerrigan, who fell all over the place and came in fifth, way behind Baiul.) Could someone please confirm or refute this?

Let's assume I'm right. So, Kerrigan was disabled but on the road to recovery, Harding had performed substantially in the Nationals to win first place, and in second place was little Michelle Kwan, age 13. (No age rule in those days.) I think that Bobek, in third place, was not on the team. Kerrigan was given a place by a ruling of whoever was in charge, probably partly because she was an Olympic bronze medalist from 1992. Harding was on as the champion. Kwan was an alternate. Then Harding's role in the attack was discovered, and she was off the team, and Michelle was on. Harding maintained her innocence and got a judge to agree that until there was a trial, she was innocent. She barged her way onto the team, and Michelle was sent to another rink in Norway to keep practicing, in case she was needed at the last minute. Harding skated abysmally. Kerrigan skated magnificently.

Am I remembering this correctly? If not, please straighten me out.

One thing I remember about afterward: neither Kerrigan nor Harding went to Worlds, so the world team was Bobek and Kwan (remember, age 13). Bobek crashed and burned, as she was wont to do. We needed an American lady to finish in the top ten to have two spots on the next year's world team. In that moment, Kwan carried American ladies' skating on her back.

She finished eighth.

That was the moment I became a lifelong fan. She carried us, she moved us forward, and she never let us down, from that day on.

demarinis5 · Dec 6, 2009

janetfan said:
Of course they have a chance and it is the same as the other girls.

This year is different too because we only have two Ladies going to Vancouver and Worlds.

If we had three going I am sure the Gold and Silver medalist would be guaranteed a spot and only the bronze might get bumped. I said "only" because this still feels like speculation to me.

Again, why would anybody show up if they didn't have a chance? Would Alissa really bother to skate at Natls if she knew winning it would somehow get her disqualified from the Olympic Team?

It is just fun to talk about but as mathman said, US Skating is not going to slit it's own throat by ruining it's #1 attraction.

There was a thread awhile back about the new rule but I could not find it. What I posted earlier was only my understanding and my interpretation of that rule. Maybe someone would post the rule again for a refresher. lol

janetfan · Dec 6, 2009

Olympia said:
Interesting that we're thinking about 1994, and the Tonya Harding ruling. As I remember, that was a year of a perfect storm of events, not just the famous assault on Kerrigan. I have a strong recollection that, like this year, we had only two spots for the ladies' Olympic team. (Remember that our highest placer in 1993 was Kerrigan, who fell all over the place and came in fifth, way behind Baiul.) Could someone please confirm or refute this?

Let's assume I'm right. So, Kerrigan was disabled but on the road to recovery, Harding had performed substantially in the Nationals to win first place, and in second place was little Michelle Kwan, age 13. (No age rule in those days.) I think that Bobek, in third place, was not on the team. Kerrigan was given a place by a ruling of whoever was in charge, probably partly because she was an Olympic bronze medalist from 1992. Harding was on as the champion. Kwan was an alternate. Then Harding's role in the attack was discovered, and she was off the team, and Michelle was on. Harding maintained her innocence and got a judge to agree that until there was a trial, she was innocent. She barged her way onto the team, and Michelle was sent to another rink in Norway to keep practicing, in case she was needed at the last minute. Harding skated abysmally. Kerrigan skated magnificently.

Am I remembering this correctly? If not, please straighten me out.

One thing I remember about afterward: neither Kerrigan nor Harding went to Worlds, so the world team was Bobek and Kwan (remember, age 13). Bobek crashed and burned, as she was wont to do. We needed an American lady to finish in the top ten to have two spots on the next year's world team. In that moment, Kwan carried American ladies' skating on her back.

She finished eighth.

That was the moment I became a lifelong fan. She carried us, she moved us forward, and she never let us down, from that day on.

I think you remember pretty well Olympia.

US Skating did throw or try to throw Harding off the team and the courts said no.

I wonder if Alissa won the championship this year and was told no Olympics if she could also take it to court. I guess it is different situation - and I also don't think Alissa will get bumped if she wins a second US title.

Maybe someone else knows about the legality issue regarding a skater's staus as Champion and being forced off a Natl or Olympic team.

R.D. · Dec 6, 2009

janetfan said:
Yes but let's leave questionable judging out and consider that the results will be fair.

Let's pretend that Mirai wins and Alissa finishes second, Rachael third and Ashley 4th.

I seriously doubt that Mirai and Alissa will both be passed over based on the results.

Are you and others saying that Mirai, as Natl champion would be on the team but that Alissa could be bumped by either Rachael or Ashley?

In such a scenario I do think Nagasu will be sent as the reigning Champ. As for Czisny, well- if only a point or two separates her and Flatt in 3rd I think the USFS would have a STRONG argument for passing over Czisny and sending Flatt instead based on a) her superior performance at 2009 worlds and b) her superior performance at 2009 4CCs.

I would hate for that to happen - and not because Mirai and Alissa are my two favorites. I would hate for Rachael or Ashley to get bumped too if they finished 1 and 2. Let's say if Sasha finishes third. US Skating decides to bump either Ashley or Rachael and put Sasha on the natl team.

Now THAT would be unfair IMHO. Cohen would have nothing to show other than a medal she won 4 years ago, quite frankly rather luckily based on how she actually skated. Both Wagner and Flatt have a body of work this cycle- Flatt has her 5th place finish at worlds and Wagner has her 4th at GPF.

I think if that happened, Wagner and Flatt would be the team and Cohen would stay home. If Cohen wants a 3rd trip to the Olys she'd BETTER win, and win convincingly.

janetfan · Dec 6, 2009

R.D. said:
In such a scenario I do think Nagasu will be sent as the reigning Champ. As for Czisny, well- if only a point or two separates her and Flatt in 3rd I think the USFS would have a STRONG argument for passing over Czisny and sending Flatt instead based on a) her superior performance at 2009 worlds and b) her superior performance at 2009 4CCs.

Now THAT would be unfair IMHO. Cohen would have nothing to show other than a medal she won 4 years ago, quite frankly rather luckily based on how she actually skated. Both Wagner and Flatt have a body of work this cycle- Flatt has her 5th place finish at worlds and Wagner has her 4th at GPF.

I think if that happened, Wagner and Flatt would be the team and Cohen would stay home. If Cohen wants a 3rd trip to the Olys she'd BETTER win, and win convincingly.

Using your own rationale about 'body of work" means Sasha goes. Her body of work surpasses all of the other US girls combined, and does so easily.

If you win the OGM or Natl title by a close margin - you are still the winner. AFAIK, Nancy is not a co -Gold medalist with Oksana even though she lost a close decision to her. That argument does not work for me either.

R.D. · Dec 6, 2009

janetfan said:
I wonder if Alissa won the championship this year and was told no Olympics if she could also take it to court. I guess it is different situation - and I also don't think Alissa will get bumped if she wins a second US title.

Maybe someone else knows about the legality issue regarding a skater's staus as Champion and being forced off a Natl or Olympic team.

Unfortunately, I think it's more likely that there will be some manipulation in the results (e.g. a few extra PCS points??) to "favor" certain skaters based on how they did internationally (like Flatt, Wagner), and skaters who didn't do so well run the risk of being held down (Zhang, Nagasu, Hughes). Easier to do that then to have the results and then attempt to make a basis for not sending the Champ! Has that ever happened before (other than 1994, which was a special case)?

The skaters who are in the latter category better fight, fight, fight.

R.D. · Dec 6, 2009

janetfan said:
Using your own rationale about 'body of work" means Sasha goes. Her body of work surpasses all of the other US girls combined, and does so easily.

I meant that with extra emphasis on events in the past two years.

Trewyn · Dec 6, 2009

^^Exactly; I think major PCS boost is a bigger risk than the champion or the runner-up being let off the team. Anyway; we'll have to wait and see what happens... Hopefully Nats won't be a splatfest.

janetfan · Dec 6, 2009

R.D. said:
I meant that with extra emphasis on events in the past two years.

But we have a rule which I am comfortable with. Returning Olympic medalists get a free ticket to Natls.

There is a reason for this rule which I don't think you understand.

Maybe it is time to change that rule but until they do it should be followed.

2014 is so far away I see no reason to pick young girls simply because of potential.

Vancouver is a few months away and it makes sense for the two who skate the best in January to go. I don't care if Ashley did OK at the two easiset GP events. I won't penalize Caroline because her assignments were tougher.

I won't follow Speedy and won't ever take his "money maker for ISU" GP series very seriously. I don't like what he has done to skating and am not his follower or fan.

You should leave the dark and come into the light before it is too late for you :laugh:

R.D. · Dec 6, 2009

janetfan said:
You should leave the dark and come into the light before it is too late for you

Tell that to USFS.

But we have a rule which I am comfortable with. Returning Olympic medalists get a free ticket to Natls.

Sure, but they DEFINITELY shouldn't get a free ticket to another Olys.

janetfan · Dec 6, 2009

R.D. said:
Tell that to USFS.

Sorry for being silly. I am having the same argument on two different topics and using the "speedy defense." I admit it is playing dirty because not many want to admit to being his fan and follower.

Unfortunately that is where my argument falls.
I could state that Mirai was marked unfairly at both of her GP's this season. Jenny mentioned it and I think BOP also said the same.

Are we supposed to eliminate Mirai, a former US Champion from a shot at the Olympics because CoP scoring basically sucks (see Evan's scores at GPF for confirmation) or because Ashley got very lucky with the level of competition at her GP events?

Does Rachael beating the worst LP skate of Yuna's career somehow give her an edge? If Rachael didn't mess up her 5th consecutive SP she could have won the event.

This argument that speedy's GP series is fair and meaningful feels absurd to me.

It is not fair and exists to make money for ISU. It does gives fans a chance to see some good and also bad skating and that part I like. But it is not a real championship. It is not like US Nationals or Worlds or the Olympics.

I think it is a great injustice to every skater entering Natls to tell them their performance doesn't count because Ashley made the GPF. I think it is a joke and a bad joke at that.

R.D. · Dec 6, 2009

Does Rachael beating the worst LP skate of Yuna's career somehow give her an edge? If Rachael didn't mess up her 5th consecutive SP she could have won the event.

Nope. Flatt's margin of victory in the FS was what, 5 points? SO that means that Flatt would have needed to score at least 71 in the SP to have a shot (Yuna scored 76 IIRC). That is WAY beyond Flatt's scoring range for the SP!

I think it is a great injustice to every skater entering Natls to tell them their performance doesn't count because Ashley made the GPF. I think it is a joke and a bad joke at that.

I can agree with this, to a certain extent.

janetfan · Dec 6, 2009

R.D. said:
Nope. Flatt's margin of victory in the FS was what, 5 points? SO that means that Flatt would have needed to score at least 71 in the SP to have a shot (Yuna scored 76 IIRC). That is WAY beyond Flatt's scoring range for the SP!

I can agree with this, to a certain extent.

About Racahel not being good enough to beat a subpar Yuna only makes my point. She is not so much better than the others and not as consistent as so many claim. She can't hope to medal at Worlds or Olympics until she learns to be competitive in her SP.

Caroline beat Rachael twice at International events last season. Does that mean caroline gets preferential treatment over Rachael?

That would be absurd. The fairest way to see who makes the Olympic team - and the only fair way - is to put the top 12 US Ladies in the same event and see who comes out on top.

Anything else, like GP's has to much room for random effects and scoring inconsistences to be fair.

That is why we have Nationals. To find out who are the best two when the pressure is the highest and when they can all be compared at the same event by the same judges.

Any other way is baloney imo.

R.D. · Dec 6, 2009

In theory, I'd TA with you IF the judging at nationals was fair. But I think there will be some bias and that's where problems may come in. Like I mentioned before, don't be shocked if Wagner and Flatt are held up (mainly on PCS scores) based on how they did internationally vs the other skaters. I mean, they did it to Alyssa last year (not too sure why), who's to say they won't do it again?

silverlake22 · Dec 6, 2009

There's no way this year's national champion is getting bumped, even if it is Alissa or Mirai by less than a point, it's just not fair and could result in a lawsuit.

That being said, if Alissa or Mirai were to come in second, and Rachael or Ashley was in 3rd, I think it would be fair to bump either of them off the team and let Rachael or Ashley go due to their superior performances internationally.

So unless Alissa/Mirai finishes above Rachael/Ashley at nats but doesn't win, and Rachael/Ashley is third, I don't see any bumping happening. Caroline could be grouped with Alissa and Mirai although I doubt she'll be higher than 4th at nationals. Even Ashley in 3rd bumping Mirai or Alissa might be questionable, as the latter two have both been national champion, and Ashley hasn't even gone to senior worlds yet. Rachael should definitely bump the 2nd place finisher if she is 3rd though, especially if the situation is like last year and the placing is questionable.

R.D. · Dec 6, 2009

silverlake22 said:
Even Ashley in 3rd bumping Mirai or Alissa might be questionable, as the latter two have both been national champion, and Ashley hasn't even gone to senior worlds yet.

Actually, she went in 2008 as the 3rd place finisher at Nats (the highest of the team). Unfortunately, she had a disastrous freeskate at the worlds and finished way down in 16th.

Mid-Season Report: U.S. Ladies, R.D. Style

janetfan

Match Penalty

Mathman

demarinis5

Gold for the Winter Prince!

janetfan

Match Penalty

Olympia

demarinis5

Gold for the Winter Prince!

janetfan

Match Penalty

R.D.

janetfan

Match Penalty

R.D.

R.D.

Trewyn

janetfan

Match Penalty

R.D.

janetfan

Match Penalty

R.D.

janetfan

Match Penalty

R.D.

silverlake22

R.D.

Similar threads

Connect with us