Is it really farfetched to say Flatt has a chance to medal in Vancouver?
With the ladies soaking in mediocrity this season (and only 4 of them breaking the 115 point barrier), is it really unrealistic to say that Flatt could potentially win a medal IF she skates two clean performances back to back?
Argh...don't....don't be getting my hopes up!! :chorus:
The GP is a poor indicator of who will rise to the occasion at Olys (and likewise, who will crumble under the pressure). 2006 was a strange year that just about EVERYBODY (including the winner) was rather underwhelming. Usually SOMEBODY steps up to the plate. Maybe now that NJS has been around a while, there won't be so much mediocrity...(or perhaps, it's the start of a new trend)
Any of the Worlds top 6 or 7 could be on Oly podium, BUT the favorites must crack under the pressure and these other skaters must do great. Because we're talking levels of talent here- Yuna is just so good that the vast majority of skaters can't beat her even if she has an off-night. If she's clean (or even has only one fall) she has the OGM in the bag.
But back on topic- No, it's not impossible for Flatt to get a medal. But damn near it? I'd say so...she was really far behind the medalists in LA and she skated fairly well, didn't she? Asada struggled and Flatt still could not beat her. And of course, the top three were the top three. I mean, this is dangerous thinking solely because this assumes that Flatt is going to do as good or better than she did at SA, and although she seems to do well under pressure, there is NOTHING quite like Oly pressure, which has proven to unnerve even some solid competitors in its history. Flatt could easily make some errors of her own, and if she does she's absolutely out of it because the rest of her skating is just not good enough to compete with the best and thus allow her to be in contention for that OM.
That said, though-
I'd to be proven wrong
Hersh say Rachael will win a medal in Vancouver so who dares argue with him
Originally Posted by HCOSurfer
I wouldn't say it's damn near impossible, maybe unlikely, but not really. At LA Rachael did not skate that well, her 3-3 in the long she turned into a 3-2 with a 2 foot landing so it was downgraded to a 3-1. And she was off her element that night. Her PCS scores have been improving as she continues to do well internationally.
Originally Posted by R.D.
Also, both of Flatt's scores on the GP this season have been higher than both of Mao's, and Rachael wasn't perfect at CoC or SA (obviously, neither was Mao).
In her last 2 competitions, Joannie's landed 3 clean triples in LP. Even if Rachael misses her 3-3 or gets it DG, you can pretty much count on her hitting the other 6 triples.
Carolina is an absolute headcase, way worse than Alissa or anyone else I can think of. She landed 1 triple at worlds last year and has been having quite a rough season so far.
So who else does that leave? It's safe to say Yuna and Miki will be ahead of Rachael barring some weird total meltdowns. Akiko? I'd say she's about even with Rachael now, great technical ability but also not the greatest PCS b/c she's new to the scene. No American ladies really have a shot except Rachael, with the outside possibility of Alissa or Mirai if they have the SOHL. But neither might even be at the Olympics anyways. I suppose there are the European ladies, Laura Lepisto, Kiira Korpi, but technically they always seem to falter and when they medal they don't really deserve it.
So in answer to your question, I think Rachael has a fair shot at bronze. Anything above that is pretty unlikely, but she's still in the mix
I guess you never know though. The stats though tend to show that it is EXTREMELY unlikely.
Of course, stranger things have happened...Flatt getting an OM I think would be a shocker on the level of Kimmie Meissner winning gold at 2006 worlds (I mean who expected THAT??) when she was considered an outside shot for bronze at best. Silver would be unprecedented. Gold- well, the world will end.
ETA: What ISN'T far-fetched, though, IMO is the possibility that Flatt could medal at the post-Vancouver Worlds, particularly if some or all the Oly medalists are missing. Of course, this is all assuming she's on the US team to begin with, which I think in this case isn't a bad one.
Last edited by R.D.; 12-07-2009 at 09:49 PM.
Beliver in Sasha's Perfect Program
Anything can happen, but I don't really see that happening. Even if she is clean for both programs skaters like Joannie will place ahead of her with the PCS. Let's just focus on her getting on the team before thinking about where she will place.
Joannie's PCS will hold her up, but if Joannie lands 3 or 4 triples and Rachael lands 7?? That's LOT of PCS points to make up...
Originally Posted by Tinymavy15
Joannie hasn't exactly been having a stellar season, and was beaten by Ashley in the GPF. Anything is possible at the Olympics. I doubt Flatt will medal, but the ice is slippery.
and... World Peace!
before that night of the LP in 2002 who dared think Sarah Hughes had a chance in Hades to win the dang gold?
so no, it's not far fetched in my mind... olympic ice is so totally different.
lots of skating fans knew Hughes was a potential spoiler. Look at GPF 02, and also Skate Canada. Hughes won. People knew it *could* happen, but people were just shocked that it did.
Keeper of Bab's Death Stare...
How about letting people focus on whatever they want to...
Originally Posted by Tinymavy15
Why are we assuming that Joannie is only going to land 3 or 4 jumps? COC she landed 6, Japan Open she landed 7. Rachael landed 5 at COC and even Diane Szmiett of Canada beat her in the long program. Joannie had almost a nine point advantage in PCS there.
Originally Posted by silverlake22
NONE of the ladies have been skating up to their potential this season. Rachael has a shot of course, everyone does! The stars would have to perfectly align for her to get that medal though, IMO.
She isn't even a sure beat to make the US team though is she? (Personally, I think her and Alissa will be on it).
Last edited by i love to skate; 12-07-2009 at 11:07 PM.
Yeah but how many triples did Joannie land at SC - 3 clean, and 2 she put her hand down on and were weird looking and should have been marked UR but weren't. And at the GPF she only landed 3 clean triples. She got 95 points for her freeskate even with her PCS.
Originally Posted by i love to skate
And no, Rachael is not definitely on the team, although I think the USFS is stupid if they leave her off it.
Yes, like I said before, all the ladies have not been performing up to par this year. How many triples did Yu-Na Kim do at her last two competitions? 3 at Skate America and 4 at the GPF. How many did Miki do at her last two competitions? 4 at NHK and 4 at GPF. Mao landed 3 at TEB and 2 at Rostelecom Cup. Hmmm sounds awfully familiar to Joannie! ALL the ladies are struggling.
Originally Posted by silverlake22
It's been shown in the past that the GP series is not a great predictor of the results or performances at the Olympics. It's going to be exciting!
Last edited by i love to skate; 12-07-2009 at 11:38 PM.
Reason: added more content