Should Wagner be sent to Olys even with a 3rd place finish at US Nats?

Take your pick...I'm curious to see what people think now that the GPF has occurred.

Warning: this is a public poll.

UPDATE: The 2nd choice should really read "Yes, but only if Czisny (or a non-contender) wins or places 2nd; otherwise, no." Treat the second choice as if it reads this.

I know that some peolpe believe that two skaters that placed the highest should be chosen fot the Olympic team, but I believe that a responsible federation should chose the skaters that managed to prove in the international competitions that they are able to deliver when it counts.

I am not American so you may say that I should not voice my opinions, but I would like to do so anyway. I think that no matter what happens at the Nationals Rachel Flatt should be chosen. She was fifth at the Worlds behind the very best and she was good at the WTT and at Skate America, too. She had a fall in the short programme and was not so good in China, but I still believe that she has proven that she is capable of skating well in Vancouver and Torino.

Before the GPF I thought that the secong skater should be either Ashley Wagner or Mirai Nagasu. Mirai was very very bad at the Cup of China (those underrotations) but she showed that she can skate her long programme with her triple jumps fully rotated at the Skate Canada. Ashley managed to get to the GPF but she did not have a flawless free skate at neither of her events leading to the GPF. So it was a tie between Mirai and Ashley for me. But in Japan Ashely proved that she is able to skate cleanly and her free skate was great and she does has an edge over Mirai now (as she predicted in one of her interviews). Also, Ashley is relatively experienced in skating at the important competitions not only because of the Grand Prix Fianl but because of her 2008 Worlds showing, too.

So in my opinion no matter what happens at the Nationals Ashley and Rachel should be sent to Canada since this is very likely that they will skate relatively well. In case Ashely or Rachel bombs at the Olympics, Mirai might be sent to the Worlds as the replacement.

If I worked in US Federation, I would not sent Caroline Zhang or Alissa Czisny anywhere.

I am 100% sure (well 99%) that the USFSA will send the U.S. champion, whoever that turns out to be. Even *gasp* Alissa Czisny or Caroline Zhang or Bebe Liang.

If Czisny (or a "noncontender") is first and either Rachael or Wagner is second, I think they will send #1 and #2.

The only predicament would be if Rachael/Ashley got first, Alissa or Mirai second and Ashley/Rachael a strong third. Then it is possible that they would send Rachael and Ashley on the basis of their international results.

The biggest question in my mind is whether predetermined hopes will affect the judging at Nationals.

Mathman said:

...and Ashley/Rachael a strong third.

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I think in that case they will judge it so that Ashley/Rachel would be second so they wouldn't skip the silver medalist.

Tonichelle said:

I think in that case they will judge it so that Ashley/Rachel would be second so they wouldn't skip the silver medalist.

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Ah. Just like with Czisny...I didn't think of that. They could manipulate the results so that the people they want to send end up being 1-2 (but I hope they're better than that :sheesh: )

I'm just saying if the outcome is close they'll bump up the ones that seem more reliable...

kinda the way it's always been.

Tonichelle said:

I'm just saying if the outcome is close they'll bump up the ones that seem more reliable...

kinda the way it's always been.

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Yeah, the international results frequently dictate the Nationals outcome . They pretty much pre-judged the competition. They can pour the PCS to the skaters that they want to win.

Good Lord, Poor Alissa. She's not even among my top 2-3 favourites of the US girls, but I feel compelled to defend the girl. If she manages to place in the top 2 at your Nationals, a very competitive pressure filled competition, for the second year in a row, it would be a huge slap in the face not to send her. It's not like Ashley has posted far and away superior international results. And Alissa may well have been able to post a comparable score/placement at the grand prix finale had she qualified, and she was indeed not terribly, shamefully far from having qualified (much to my own surprise). Luck of the draw even plays a role in getting that opportunity. Ashely has shown well for herself, but I fail to see that clear superiority to her US competition has been displayed here. Sure Ashley might have more potential, and slightly better technique leading one to hope for better consistency... but laying it down when it counts (i.e. Nationals) should be part of demonstrating that potential and consistency.

In NO WAY would it be fair for USFSA to decide whom to send based on pure conjecture on who is likely to place higher at Olys, not when the contenders are this close. Ice is slippery! Predictions can and do go wrong. And being an athlete is all about earning the right to rise to the occasion and surprise everybody.

it depends on 1st (how she skates) if she skates clean and great and
2 it would depend on how other skaters skate --then it depends on who finishes above her- like if it is Sasha and rachel, i would send rachel and ashley,

zhang =nagasu it depends i might put ashley on instead of them.
but like i stated it depends on how everyone skates.
should she or any other skater be put on automatically above another skater if they finish 3rd- it depends. if the top 3 skates well--no-just 1st and 2nd
should go.
that like if ashley finishes 2nd and sasha 3rd who would get on.
sasha has had higher scores in past albiet overmarked at times, probably will get higher pc's . if they want a medal, probably sasha want experience willsend ashley-it depends.
but mostly they should worry about scandalous scores at nationals first and foremost and judge/grade fair first than worry about olympic team

amateur said:

Good Lord, Poor Alissa. She's not even among my top 2-3 favourites of the US girls, but I feel compelled to defend the girl. If she manages to place in the top 2 at your Nationals, a very competitive pressure filled competition, for the second year in a row, it would be a huge slap in the face not to send her. It's not like Ashley has posted far and away superior international results. And Alissa may well have been able to post a comparable score/placement at the grand prix finale had she qualified, and she was indeed not terribly, shamefully far from having qualified (much to my own surprise). Luck of the draw even plays a role in getting that opportunity. Ashely has shown well for herself, but I fail to see that clear superiority to her US competition has been displayed here. Sure Ashley might have more potential, and slightly better technique leading one to hope for better consistency... but laying it down when it counts (i.e. Nationals) should be part of demonstrating that potential and consistency.

In NO WAY would it be fair for USFSA to decide whom to send based on pure conjecture on who is likely to place higher at Olys, not when the contenders are this close. Ice is slippery! Predictions can and do go wrong. And being an athlete is all about earning the right to rise to the occasion and surprise everybody.

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Exactly. If Ashley or Rachael perform badly enough that they don't finish 1-2 what does that say about their consistency? Especially Ashley who was 16th _ 16th _ in the 2008 worlds. It is completely absurd to think Ashley has earned the right to any kind of special treatment. She has not won any major international competition. (neither has Flatt, for that matter.) And her consistency is still very much in question. Last year, she messed up her SP at nationals so badly that she was 12th heading into the LP. The same pattern repeated itself at the GP finals when she was 6th heading into the LP.
Let's say she does the same thing at nationals: has a shaky SP, then rallies with a great LP to wind up third? Is this the incredibly consistent skater who deserves to go to the Olympics no matter what? No. It's the description of a skater who really has little chance at an Olympic medal.

In a word: NO!!! And I would be embarrased if our federation did this. If Ashley, whose won nothing significant last time I checked, doesn't earn her place, then she shouldn't go. Period. I like Ashley and I have total confidence that a team of Rachel and Ashley are the US's best shot at earning three spots at Worlds but to imply that a fourth place finish at the GPF is worth intergity is beyond me...

Well, looking at the poll results so far, people seem to be split right down the middle on this issue

It IS a hot topic and some might argue, rather controversial. Now, if Wagner bombs and is 4th or lower than she should absolutely stay home. But if point totals are close, she's in 3rd AND a non-contender sneaks in the top 2, it wouldn't be unreasonable IMHO to send Wagner instead based on her international experience. Actually, this applies to any of the five contenders, not just Wagner.

R.D. said:

Well, looking at the poll results so far, people seem to be split right down the middle on this issue

It IS a hot topic and some might argue, rather controversial. Now, if Wagner bombs and is 4th or lower than she should absolutely stay home. But if point totals are close, she's in 3rd AND a non-contender sneaks in the top 2, it wouldn't be unreasonable IMHO to send Wagner instead based on her international experience. Actually, this applies to any of the five contenders, not just Wagner.

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Doesn't this last sentence only prove why none of them should get special treatment and bump off whoever wins the silver? :scratch:

You know- the more I think about it, the more I think it actually does not make much of a difference who the 2nd spot goes to. They each can do well if they're on, but all have issues holding them back from being competitive with the best. Flatt seems to be the only competitor that's rather steady, but if she's off she has nothing to fall back on.

I voted yes. I think it's going to come down to Rachael, Ashley, and Alissa, with Flatt and Wagner having the momentum on their side.

Still split on what to do with Ashley. Hmm...:scratch:

Well hopefully she'll deliver at Nats and place in the top two, so this discussioin is not needed. Her biggest competition might be Alissa, assuming Rachael is getting a spot. I'm not sure about Mirai; Caroline even if she skates well, she might get low marks because of how she's been scored internationally so far this season.