Is Mao back in the mix?

Yuna is the favorite for OGM but after her, I'd say Mao, Miki, and Joannie are about even. Yuna scored 210 even when she didn't do a 3flip in the FS, which is a score none of the other ladies can probably achieve, especially without a 3flip.

It's hard to look at the GP season and compare because Mao, Miki, and Joannie all did not have the best GP seasons. Sure, Miki won both events and was 2nd at the final, but she didn't skate to her potential at any of those competitions, she was just lucky that doing what she did at those competitions was enough to place well. Joannie had a bad SP at CoC and a good LP at CoC, but even there she only got bronze and that was a pretty weak field considering Mirai got hammered in the LP and Rachael was off her element. At SC she had a good SP and a bad LP, because of the competition and biased judging, that was enough to win there. Mao's GP events were tougher and anyone who has to compete at an event with Yuna is at a disadvantage. Had someone else been at TEB, Mao probably would have won even with the mistakes and would have been at the final (I think). So yes, Mao has had a rough season, but so have Miki and Joannie, and even Yuna too. No one should be counted out yet because all of these four ladies, and others that will be at the Olympics, are extremely talented and have great potential to do well. We just have to wait and see if they will perform up to this potential...

Mao is definitely back!

I thought Mao was magical at Japanese Nationals. I've watched her performances over and over again on YouTube. She has completely restored my faith in her. She is the only current female skater who really does anything for me. I'm more of a Men and Ice Dance person. I like fancy footwork. I love Mao because she sort of skates like a man, very powerful and fast, yet she has a glorious elegance and brightness to her skating. An no one can resist that personality. When she's "on", she's really "on". I hope she wins the gold in Vancouver!

P.S. Her Exhibition piece is delightful. I wish she could use it as her SP, but she uses a fan (prop).

futureidol said:

I thought Mao was magical at Japanese Nationals. I've watched her performances over and over again on YouTube. She has completely restored my faith in her. She is the only current female skater who really does anything for me. I'm more of a Men and Ice Dance person. I like fancy footwork. I love Mao because she sort of skates like a man, very powerful and fast, yet she has a glorious elegance and brightness to her skating. An no one can resist that personality. When she's "on", she's really "on". I hope she wins the gold in Vancouver!

P.S. Her Exhibition piece is delightful. I wish she could use it as her SP, but she uses a fan (prop).

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Haha. She does try to achieve the elements usually done by male skaters (3axels). On a another note, I am still not sure if we can put Rochette and Miki in the same league as Mao. I mean when was the last time Miki skated to her potential? Maybe in 2007 when she beat Mao and Yuna at worlds? That was a long time ago though. Rochette is not very consistent either. Sure, I am as disappointed as anyone about Mao's recent slump, but that doesn't mean she has fallen to the same league as Miki and Rochette. When Mao's is at her best, she just outperforms these two. Hopefully Mao can return to her prime soon so she can silence all these critics who doubted her

In their last five head-to-heads, Rochette beat Asada three times (all last season - excluding the Japan Open as a fluff event, but the numbers don't change). I do agree that Mao at her best beats Rochette/Ando at their respective bests, but right now, yeah - I think the three are in the same league.

miki88 said:

In a major competition, it's better to be the underdog than the favorite :yes:

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I understand what you are meaning - that the favorite doesn't always win at the Olympics but I would say it is always better to be the favorite. Sure if you bet the favorite against 5 to 10 underdogs, the underdogs collectively may beat the favorite more often than the favorite beats all the underdogs. But you are always better statistically, being a favorite than being any one of the underdogs.

Ptolemy said:

I understand what you are meaning - that the favorite doesn't always win at the Olympics but I would say it is always better to be the favorite. Sure if you bet the favorite against 5 to 10 underdogs, the underdogs collectively may beat the favorite more often than the favorite beats all the underdogs. But you are always better statistically, being a favorite than being any one of the underdogs.

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and underdogs make better stories. Everyone wants to be the underdog who came out and won, but nobody wants to be the favorite who could not come through and lost.

janetfan said:

Yuna skated very well at TEB - but looked rattled at SA and was only a mistake away from what we might call a meltdown.

Watching Yuna and Miki at the GPF I would say they were lucky Mao was not there. Mao's performance at Natls looked good enough to have won the GPF.

Neither Miki or Yuna completed a 3x3 at the GPF and both only landed 4 triples.
I suspect Mao is back in the mix and it will all depend on how well the Ladies can perform in Vancouver.

If Yuna and Miki are not performing good 3x3's in Vancouver and Mao is landing a few 3A's like she did at Natls it appears she may skate away with the Gold.

We all thought Yuna was a sure bet heading into this season and especially after TEB. Then we saw Yuna bothered by the season's pressure and expectations.

I think Vancouver is wide open and it will probably come down to nerves and poise as the pressure will be unlike anything Yuna or Mao have ever faced before. Miki faced it once and it crushed her. Perhaps the memory of that experience will help her in Vancouver.

If the judging is actually FAIR I think Akiko is one to look out for.
But a clean and strong Yuna is still the one capable of scoring the most points.

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Akiko's really is not in the same league as the top skaters. And her inconsistencies as a skater showed at the JN, where she FELL in her FS and I think she also might have made a major mistake in SP but I'm not sure since I really didn't have the time to go through her SP program. I would hardly put her ahead of any of the top skaters based on her competitions so far this season. It would be totally biased and skewed to do so. As far as technique and basic skating, I would even say that Joannie is a better skater than Akiko and if she skated fairly clean in competition, she would roundly beat her. Too bad that Joannie made many mistakes this season though.

Neither Miki or Yuna completed a 3x3 at the GPF and both only landed 4 triples.
I suspect Mao is back in the mix and it will all depend on how well the Ladies can perform in Vancouver.

If Yuna and Miki are not performing good 3x3's in Vancouver and Mao is landing a few 3A's like she did at Natls it appears she may skate away with the Gold.

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Yuna is the most consistent skater based on her performances at the grand prix and her past seasons. Like last year, she made a few mistakes early in the season. However, she came back stronger at the 4cc and then ultimately peaked at the Worlds. Based on her track record, I would imagine she peak later around the Olympics/Worlds. Considering she will have a few months to rest before the competitions, instead of competing every few weeks, as she did during Grand prix season, I think it's highly likely she will be in top form by February.

As far as Mao winning GPF based on her JN performance , it is not even logical. First of all, if you want an idea of whether Mao could have beaten Yuna at GPF, look at TEB where they both competed at an equal footing. JN is not an international competition. I even think Mao's TEB performance was superior to her JN because it wasn't watered down as far as jumping difficulty and other elements were concerned. Secondly, Mao's JN marks were obviously inflated because of home advantage. As far as I know, she's never received a 200+ in international competitionm, and her program was filled with "easy" jumps consisting of 3X2, 2X2 etc. Still she underrotated these basic jumps. I think it's worth mentioning that she still could not pull off a clean program even with an easier program.

Neither Miki nor Yuna really have problems receiving full credit for their jumps. I would think that Miki has a better chance medalling than Mao because she can get full credit for all her jumps and I can't say the same thing for Mao. Mao has had ALL year to fix her problems and I don't think she's slacked off, especially considering that she was off the podium at WC and didn't even qualify GPF which was probably extremely shameful for her. Hence, as I mentioned, I would expect the problems to persist in Vancouver.

I agree that when you compare Akiko's skating to that of Yuna and Mao, you can see that the latter two are, at least to the lay fan, more aesthetically pleasing. It's the way Yuna and Mao complete their moves and jumps and just the beauty of their skating overall that I see them having higher presentation scores than Akiko. Akiko is a delightful skater with tremendous triples in her arsenal and fun programs (especially LP), but she just isn't in the same league IMO.

Well the Olympics is not the same as any other competition, so it's tricky to base it on past consistency. Also, didn't Yuna have a better record on Grand Prix series than Worlds? She won three Grand Prix finals and only one Worlds. So I don't know about her peaking later than earlier in the season. She definitely peaked this year as a whole. As I said before, Mao's jumping problem is partly mental. She says she can still do them in her practices. So even if she practice her jumps, it won't help if she lacks the confidence to do it in competitions. So it all depends on whether she can solve her mental problem by the Olympics. On a side note, I read somewhere that Yuna doesn't have good practices but performs wonderfully in competition. So mental prepardness counts a lot.

Marrymeyunakim said:

Completely agree.

It would be foolish to count Mao out.

To be honest, expecting Yuna to run away with OGM was very foolish. No one is ever a lock for OGM; just ask Michelle Kwan, Irina and other favourites.

I do wish Yuna will skate well in the OG, and pull out a 205+ score... I can only take consolation in the fact that Yuna had a mini-meltdown in the 4CC FS this year but came back strong in Los Angeles. If she doesn't skate to her potential at OG then I would not be surprised with an upset.

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For a Mao fan, you certainly have an interesting moniker.

Figure88 said:

For a Mao fan, you certainly have an interesting moniker.

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Well, to be fair, there seem to be a handful of guys who are into Yuna's looks, even if they're are not real skating fans...(note: I'm not implying any posters are not skating fans. Just an example!)

Figure88 said:

For a Mao fan, you certainly have an interesting moniker.

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Yuna is my favourite first and foremost.

But I also appreciate Mao's abilities and acknowledge that she could very well snatch that OGM. :agree:

Would you rather me just hate on Mao and blindly follow Yuna like a Yuna fan?

R.D. said:

Well, to be fair, there seem to be a handful of guys who are into Yuna's looks, even if they're are not real skating fans...

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Hey R.D., OT but I just saw a live performance by the prettiest Polish skater ever. If you want to start a new folder in your photo albums, Laura Lepzinski will be competing in pairs at U.S. Nationals with her partner Ethan Burgess. (She fell twice, but oh well.)

http://www.cs.kent.edu/~walker/photos/08-01-20_USNationals/08-01-26c-CPF/group1/images/DSC_3143.JPG

http://www.cs.kent.edu/~walker/photos/08-01-20_USNationals/08-01-26c-CPF/group1/images/DSC_3134.JPG

miki88 said:

I am still not sure if we can put Rochette and Miki in the same league as Mao. I mean when was the last time Miki skated to her potential? Maybe in 2007 when she beat Mao and Yuna at worlds? That was a long time ago though. Rochette is not very consistent either. Sure, I am as disappointed as anyone about Mao's recent slump, but that doesn't mean she has fallen to the same league as Miki and Rochette. When Mao's is at her best, she just outperforms these two. Hopefully Mao can return to her prime soon so she can silence all these critics who doubted her

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If you are going to say that about Miki, you might as well say that about Mao too. When you say Mao at her best, are you confusing the current Mao with no 3lutz and no 3-3 with the 2007 Mao with a 3lutz, 3-3s, a more consistent 3a, and better programs?

Miki at least lands nice 3lz-3lo in practice all the time whereas Mao does not attempt 3lutz or 3-3s in official practices. Also, Miki, Joannie, and Mao all did well at worlds last year (each with only a couple of minor mistakes) and Miki and Joannie beat Mao.

Mao only has an edge in the memory of her former greatness/legacy. It remains to be seen if she is capable of what she used to be able to do, and even if she is, it doesn't look like she will be attempting it in her programs. She does have the 3a to back her up, but Joannie and Miki plan to execute 7 triples in the LP which is more than Mao's 6 triples if she attempts and gets both 3a ratified. Also, Joannie has surpassed both Mao and Miki in her expressiveness, and both Miki and Joannie's programs this year have more, better choreography than Mao's do. All three get very comparable PCS scores and the technical score is all up to who lands more jumps. I'd say they are all VERY close competitors

Mathman said:

Hey R.D., OT but I just saw a live performance by the prettiest Polish skater ever. If you want to start a new folder in your photo albums, Laura Lepzinski will be competing in pairs at U.S. Nationals with her partner Ethan Burgess. (She fell twice, but oh well.)

http://www.cs.kent.edu/~walker/photos/08-01-20_USNationals/08-01-26c-CPF/group1/images/DSC_3143.JPG

http://www.cs.kent.edu/~walker/photos/08-01-20_USNationals/08-01-26c-CPF/group1/images/DSC_3134.JPG

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Thanks for the photos- I typically don't create a new folder for a specific skater unless a) I find lots of photos- i.e. a set of photos I really like or b) the skater has just come onto the scene and is becoming popular. Last year I think I started folders for Laura Lepisto, Akiko Suzuki, Alexe Gilles, and Becky Bereswill to name a few (there might be a couple others I forgot).

Also, I typically create folders only for ladies singles skaters- the only exceptions are Tanith Belbin, Tatiana Navka and Aliona Savchenko [sp?]. yeah, somehow or other, they're special

I'll definitely be keeping these though- in the misc. folder

silverlake22 said:

Mao only has an edge in the memory of her former greatness/legacy. It remains to be seen if she is capable of what she used to be able to do, and even if she is, it doesn't look like she will be attempting it in her programs. She does have the 3a to back her up, but Joannie and Miki plan to execute 7 triples in the LP which is more than Mao's 6 triples if she attempts and gets both 3a ratified. Also, Joannie has surpassed both Mao and Miki in her expressiveness, and both Miki and Joannie's programs this year have more, better choreography than Mao's do. All three get very comparable PCS scores and the technical score is all up to who lands more jumps. I'd say they are all VERY close competitors

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Mao only attempted 6 triples last year at her FS last year at worlds, and extra 2A with a positive GOE would have gotten her silver, and lets be honest PCS is often based on how many jumps a skater lands, if you compare Mao spins, spiral, etc. are superior to both Joannie and especially Miki. Choreography is another matter entirely

mylastduchess said:

Mao only attempted 6 triples last year at her FS last year at worlds, and extra 2A with a positive GOE would have gotten her silver, and lets be honest PCS is often based on how many jumps a skater lands, if you compare Mao spins, spiral, etc. are superior to both Joannie and especially Miki. Choreography is another matter entirely

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I see your point but if a double axel separates 4th from bronze among 2 skaters that did well doesn't that mean the two skaters are very equally matched? If Mao had 7 triples planned in her FS and her, Joannie, and Miki were all clean I am confident that Mao would beat both of them, but the reality is that Mao only has 6 planned in her FS, 5 if she leaves out the 3a in combination. When I talk about ability and potential I mean with the current programs a skater has.

mylastduchess said:

Mao only attempted 6 triples last year at her FS last year at worlds, and extra 2A with a positive GOE would have gotten her silver, and lets be honest PCS is often based on how many jumps a skater lands, if you compare Mao spins, spiral, etc. are superior to both Joannie and especially Miki. Choreography is another matter entirely

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Yea I agree :yes: When I am talking about Mao's best, I am referring to her potential. She is at a disadvantage because of her jump laylout and choreography, but those are related to bad choices, not her potential as a skater.
But if people are basing this on just the past year, then ok I agree that they are close competitors. But as for potential, I won't say that, but it's only my opinion Anyways, I won't say anymore about who's better than whom, because they are all top skaters with unique qualities. I guess I just wanted to say something in defense of Mao cuz she seems to be criticized so much lately. I mean just look at all these threads just wondering if she can make the team or be back in the mix jeez.

It is not what a skater plans, but what a skater does!
Mao will medal if she skates a clean short and a five-triple free that includes a 3a.
Unfortunately for Mao, she is skating against her music. It's Russian, and does not allow her natural flow and ease to shine.

Rochette plans a 7-triple? Not possible this season, I'm thinking. With all the emphases on UR, correct edges, in-betweens, footwork, and complicated spins, is it realistic to expect a lady to also complete 7 triples successfully in the FS. (What lady has accomplished this so far this season?)

I think Akiko has skated two 7-triple FS's this season.