Is Mao back in the mix?

dlgpffps · Jan 4, 2010

miki88 said:
Ok if comparing Yuna when she was injured is unfair, then I think it's also unfair for people to make comparisons based on only Mao's performance this year when she was obviously not in form. Also, saying that Yuna couldnt win before because of her injury reminds me of the Tara and Michelle situation at Worlds where so many people were saying Michelle wouldnt have lost if she were not injured. I love Michelle but saying this is also unfair to Tara. I just don't like these hypothetical assumptions because it downplays the other skaters' accomplishments.

I think it's unfair on Mao too. So calm down. I disagreed with everyone who said this season marks Mao's "Great Decline" because I think she has such amazing potential. I just think she won't jump back this season because she has such serious troubles with jumps (regardless of reason, she's having troubles that she couldn't resolve for a while now and probably won't in time for the Olympics, but again let's just wait and see. I hope I'm wrong).

I think you're making a logical fallacy, though. I never said that Kim would've won if she had been in perfect shape. She might've been more resolute and iron-willed because she had injuries and wanted to excel against all odds (prove doubts wrong). Perhaps there was an underlying insinuation, but I ensure you if there is it's unintended. I just think you should give credit where credit is due. All I said is that Kim can pull off an outstanding performance with injuries (now don't twist my words to mean other skaters can't). Your previous post pointed out that she excels in the Grand Prix circuit, but falters in Worlds. That, I think, is indeed unfair, and I think you know that too. I did not give any "hypothetical assumptions [to] downplay other skaters' accomplishments." Please re-read my post if you must. I did not say "Kim would've won if she wasn't injured!" I think you're being quite unfair on me. I'm just putting Kim's accomplishments in context, which I think everyone should (like you probably think we should for Mao's COR struggles). I'm sorry if my post was misleading.

miki88 · Jan 4, 2010

dlgpffps said:
I think it's unfair on Mao too. So calm down. I disagreed with everyone who said this season marks Mao's "Great Decline" because I think she has such amazing potential. I just think she won't jump back this season because she has such serious troubles with jumps (regardless of reason, she's having troubles that she couldn't resolve for a while now and probably won't in time for the Olympics, but again let's just wait and see. I hope I'm wrong).

I think you're making a logical fallacy, though. I never said that Kim would've won if she had been in perfect shape. She might've been more resolute and iron-willed because she had injuries and wanted to excel against all odds (prove doubts wrong). Perhaps there was an underlying insinuation, but I ensure you if there is it's unintended. I just think you should give credit where credit is due. All I said is that Kim can pull off an outstanding performance with injuries (now don't twist my words to mean other skaters can't). Your previous post pointed out that she excels in the Grand Prix circuit, but falters in Worlds. That, I think, is indeed unfair, and I think you know that too. I did not give any "hypothetical assumptions [to] downplay other skaters' accomplishments." Please re-read my post if you must. I did not say "Kim would've won if she wasn't injured!" I think you're being quite unfair on me. I'm just putting Kim's accomplishments in context, which I think everyone should (like you probably think we should for Mao's COR struggles). I'm sorry if my post was misleading.

I agree with you that Kim did very well considering her injuries at worlds. And I didn't really mean she falters at Worlds. I just want to say that it doesn't seem she has a definite peak point. When she performs well, she can be very consistent. With that said, I am sorry if I sounded unfair towards you. Perhaps I overreacted to your post because there had been some others who have been making those assumptions I had referred to in my reply so I wanted to say something about the matter. My rant was not specifically aimed at u but more general in nature, so I apologize if I offended u. Now that we have cleared up our misunderstandings, let's call it a truce :agree:

silverlake22 · Jan 5, 2010

Blades of Passion said:
Now, look at this 5 Triple Program:

3Flip-3Loop (10.5)
2Axel (3.5)
3Lutz-2Loop (7.5)
--------------
2Axel-2Loop-2Loop (7.15)
3Flip (6.05
3Lutz (6.6)
2Axel (3.85)

Total - 45.15

It's worth more than Joannie's program....and none of those Triples are a 3Axel either.

Interesting, but the above program has a VERY high chance of having multiple downgrades. The only girls that are getting 3loop on the back end of combinations ratified these days are the 13 year old beanpoles from Russia. The 2loops could also be URed easily, especially in the 3-2-2 (we have seen this happen to Mao and Mirai this season). Another thing is that with 2 flips and 2 lutzes, if a skater's technique is questionable, they could easily get "e" or "!" calls. All these things together would cause the program to lose enough points to be worth less than Joannie's 7 triple program.

The other thing is, if you only plan 5 triples, and two of them are in a 3-3 combo, if you do a 3-2 instead or get the 3-3 UR, you are down to 4 triples, add in a fall or another downgrade, and you have only 3. This is what happened to Alissa at worlds last year. Her LP was good, but she didn't score very well because she only had 5 triples planned in her LP, one was a 3t-3t combination, she did a 3t-2t instead and had a UR call on her 3loop, that got her down to 3 clean triples, and her score couldn't compete with the big timers. That is why Alissa now attempts 6 triples with no 3-3 in her LP this year.

I think it is smart that Joannie goes for 7 triples, that way, she can afford to double a jump and fall, or double two jumps, and still stay in contention.

yuriyuri · Jan 5, 2010

Blades of Passion said:
Sure, keep the label if you want, but it's nothing more than a label.

People say "7 Triple program" as if it means something of specific value when, in fact, a 5 Triple program might actually be worth more points.

Here is what Joannie's "7 Triple Program" is worth in base value:

3Lutz-2Toe-2Loop (8.8)
3Flip (5.5)
3Loop (5.0)
-----------
3Lutz (6.6
3Toe, 3Sal sequence (7.48)
2Axel-2Toe (5.28)
3Sal (4.95)

Total - 43.61

Now, look at this 5 Triple Program:

3Flip-3Loop (10.5)
2Axel (3.5)
3Lutz-2Loop (7.5)
--------------
2Axel-2Loop-2Loop (7.15)
3Flip (6.05
3Lutz (6.6)
2Axel (3.85)

Total - 45.15

It's worth more than Joannie's program....and none of those Triples are a 3Axel either.

Here is the base value of a 5-Triple program Mao Asada could potentially perform (let's assume she does this layout because she wants to try the 3Axel-3Toe combination, but only manages to do a 3Axel-2Toe):

3Axel-2Toe (9.5)
3Axel (8.2)
3Flip (5.5)
----------
2Axel-2Loop-2Loop (7.15)
3Flip-2Loop (7.7)
3Loop (5.5)
2Axel (3.85)

Total - 47.4

Worth significantly more than Joannie's program, with just 5 Triples.

People need to stop counting the number of Triples a skater lands. That's not what matters (to an extent). All of the double Axels and combination jumps need to be counted as well.

ITA. Mao's jump layout is much more exciting than Joannie's and has higher base value.

silverlake22 · Jan 5, 2010

yuriyuri said:
ITA. Mao's jump layout is much more exciting than Joannie's and has higher base value.

And a much higher chance of downgrades and disaster. Take COR as an example, Mao without her 3a means 5th place finish at a GP event, meaning it would be lower at the Olympics if she does a repeat of that performance. I think it's smart to try as many triple as possible, that way your dreams of medaling aren't over if you mess up 1 or 2 jumps.

dlgpffps · Jan 7, 2010

miki88 said:
I agree with you that Kim did very well considering her injuries at worlds. And I didn't really mean she falters at Worlds. I just want to say that it doesn't seem she has a definite peak point. When she performs well, she can be very consistent. With that said, I am sorry if I sounded unfair towards you. Perhaps I overreacted to your post because there had been some others who have been making those assumptions I had referred to in my reply so I wanted to say something about the matter. My rant was not specifically aimed at u but more general in nature, so I apologize if I offended u. Now that we have cleared up our misunderstandings, let's call it a truce :agree:

Truce it is :agree: Let us not fight when there are greater evils to fight in this world, like all the bot conspiracy theories and federation interference. Let our beloved skaters skate long and prosper (winning an OM on the way and giving the SOTL).

evangeline · Jan 7, 2010

dlgpffps said:
Truce it is :agree: Let us not fight when there are greater evils to fight in this world, like all the bot conspiracy theories and federation interference. Let our beloved skaters skate long and prosper (winning an OM on the way and giving the SOTL).

A toast to that, and may great performances at the Olympics be plentiful as sequins and flesh-toned illusion fabric!

arty:

Is Mao back in the mix?

dlgpffps

miki88

silverlake22

yuriyuri

silverlake22

dlgpffps

evangeline

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