U.S. Men: Who is on the Olympic Team?

Tinymavy15 · Dec 11, 2009

The discussions on which two ladies will get on the olympic team have been endless, but we have not much talked about the men. Sure, they are less interesting because 3 spots versus two and one of them is a reigning world champ. But we have a very deep field and anything can happen. Evan was not so hot last year at nationals...

I say there is pretty no way that Evan could not be on the team even if he bombs at nationals. Jeremey is almost a sure thing for a spot, but consistency is not his thing. Morz had a pretty blah GP, so even if he medals, perhaps he will get bumped off the team if one of the Big Three don't medal.

It would not be a stretch to see Johnny not medaling this year, we saw him skate two clean programs at the GPF and neither really were that impressive.

silverlake22 · Dec 11, 2009

Tinymavy15 said:
The discussions on which two ladies will get on the olympic team have been endless, but we have not much talked about the men. Sure, they are less interesting because 3 spots versus two and one of them is a reigning world champ. But we have a very deep field and anything can happen. Evan was not so hot last year at nationals...

I say there is pretty no way that Evan could not be on the team even if he bombs at nationals. Jeremey is almost a sure thing for a spot, but consistency is not his thing. Morz had a pretty blah GP, so even if he medals, perhaps he will get bumped off the team if one of the Big Three don't medal.

It would not be a stretch to see Johnny not medaling this year, we saw him skate two clean programs at the GPF and neither really were that impressive.

Yeah, I'd say Evan and Jeremy are locks. But what about Ryan Bradley? I love his energy

evangeline · Dec 11, 2009

Evan Lysacek would have to completely bomb his programs to not win the US National title, much less make the US Olympic team. Actually, I'm pretty sure he'd probably get away with UR-ing his 3As and falling on a jump or two and still walk away with the title (ah, the benefits of PCS and a tech caller who looks the other way!).

And I agree that Jeremy Abbott is more or less a lock despite his tendency to bomb; he's proven himself internationally.

I hope the USFSA will send Johnny Weir to the Olympics, though. He's improved steadily with every performance this season, and it seems that Galina has paced him pretty well so far. I can see his PCS improving as he claws himself back to the judges' favour as he puts out more and more clean performances.

I'd say that the USFSA would be crazy not to send their men's GPF finalists to the Olympics; these three are very likely to end up in the top 10 of the men's event no matter what, which can't really be said for Ryan Bradley and Brandon Mroz (especially since Mroz's jumps seem to have abandoned him this season). As for Adam Rippon? He's a fantastic skater, but he's more for 2014 than 2010.

Tonichelle · Dec 12, 2009

Evan is a lock, I think Johnny will skate well enough to make the team... the third spot could go to at least half a dozen other guys...

I was there in 2006, I just hope they all make it a difficult decision when it all comes down to it, unlike the men's even four years ago.

jennylovskt · Dec 12, 2009

I would think Jeremy will skate more confidently at the Nationals than at the international competitions. So he should skate well. The question is who would skate surprisingly well to bump Johnny or Jeremy off the podium? Mroz? Rippon? or Bradley?

Tonichelle · Dec 12, 2009

I wouldn't mind Bradley being a fluke win and making the team...

Lysacek, Weir, and Bradley are my hope...

dorispulaski · Dec 12, 2009

Mine as well. Have you all seen the following recent interview with Ryan Bradley?

http://www.figureskating-online.com/pageID_8988172.html

psycho · Dec 12, 2009

Some of the posts in this thread amuse me greatly. All season long Weir has been consistently beating Abbott, yet some folks go on as if Abbott is a lock and Weir is likely to get the shaft. Ooooookay....if you say so.

Trewyn · Dec 12, 2009

^^ You're right; Weir has been pretty steady, Abbott not so steady; though he outskated Weir in the LP at the GPF and some feel he should have placed ahead of Weir overall. Nevermind that, if Jeremy skates clean in both SP and LP I think he's very capable of beating a clean Johnny. But you're right; neither Jeremy or Weir are a lock right now. Johnny has made a good case for himself placing third at the GPF.

My favorites in US Men are Abbott and Rippon; I also kind of like Weir, and I dislike Lysacek; but the latter is a great competitor and it would be crazy for him to not be on the team. Realistically it's Lysacek, Abbott and Weir, but I wouldn't mind Adam to pull and upset and bump Weir, but then again; this might be more the time for Weir than for Adam. I hope that Adam is at least on the podium (realistically in fourth behind the Olympic team) and hopefully he'll be in Turin after say Lysacek retires

.

museksk8r · Dec 12, 2009

psycho said:
Some of the posts in this thread amuse me greatly. All season long Weir has been consistently beating Abbott, yet some folks go on as if Abbott is a lock and Weir is likely to get the shaft. Ooooookay....if you say so.

Knowledgeable people are looking at points potential. A clean Abbott can outscore a clean Weir by about 15-20 points because of Jeremy's potential quad (which he has landed cleanly 5 times now in competition), his incredibly difficult transitions, and just overall smarter, COP friendly programs he has over Johnny. Abbott won a GP event this season; Weir did not. Abbott beat Lysacek's TES score in the LP at the GPF (and outscored Johnny in the LP, and should have overall too); Weir did not. A clean Abbott beat a clean Weir in the SP at the NHK Trophy by 5 points. I don't see that Johnny has this superior advantage over Jeremy as you are trying to imply. Jeremy has beaten a clean Johnny this season, but Johnny has not beaten a clean Jeremy. Jeremy has done impressive things this season too.

yelyoh · Dec 12, 2009

It'll be Evan (my least favorite but he is a terrific competitor), Jeremy and Johnny. Adam has an outside chance if the latter two really bomb which they won't. Carriere could also be a dark horse and in fact I'd give him a better shot than Ryan or Brandon. Ryan when he is on has strong jumps and is good in the areas of performance and interpretation but not that good on other elements and components. This is not Brandon's year.

museksk8r · Dec 12, 2009

I see it coming down to Lysacek, Abbott, Weir, and Rippon. I wish the latter 3 could be the team, but the chances of the USFSA leaving Evan off the team are nonexistent.

champs · Dec 12, 2009

It looks like it will end up with Lysacek, Weir, and Abbott, but my sentimental favorite is Bradley. Unfortunately for me, looking at how they have been doing in competitions I feel Ryan's chance is very slim. It's sad that Vancouver would probably be the last chance for all of these four skaters to go to the Olympics if we consider their ages. I really wish Ryan will grab the last chance he can shine on the big international stage though.

Wicked · Dec 12, 2009

Although I love Ryan's programs this year, I think Evan, Jeremy, and Johnny are the top 3 US men and give the US the best chance at medals. If they all skated lights out at Vancouver (doubtful, I know), more than one of them could be on the podium, especially in light of recent injuries.

taylorfax · Dec 12, 2009

Wicked said:
I think Evan, Jeremy, and Johnny are the top 3 US men and give the US the best chance at medals.

Agreed. Imo, if the USFSA has any brains at all they will send Evan, Johnny and Jeremy. And that's regardless of what happens at Nationals. They are the only ones who are capable of making a dent internationally at this point. If one messes up, the other two could still potentially medal, if two mess up, there's still hope for the third.

janetfan · Dec 12, 2009

taylorfax said:
Agreed. Imo, if the USFSA has any brains at all they will send Evan, Johnny and Jeremy. And that's regardless of what happens at Nationals. They are the only ones who are capable of making a dent internationally at this point. If one messes up, the other two could still potentially medal, if two mess up, there's still hope for the third.

I think only Adam Rippon has an outside chance of knocking either Jeremy or Johnny of the Olympic team. He did win a GP medal earlier this season and if he has a great skate at Natls and either Jeremy or Johnny skate poorly it might be interesting.

But I think if the guys skate close to their potential the Natl team will be Evan, Jeremy and Johnny.

The other US men will get to compete at 4CC and possibly at Worlds if Evan and Johnny retire. All things considered that does give Ryan, Adam, Brandon and the others a chance to compete at some major international events this season.

dorispulaski · Dec 12, 2009

For anyone other than Evan, Johnny, and Jeremy to sure of making the team (assuming all of those 3 are healthy), they have to win the Men's event.

The question of course, is that possible, and it is.

Both Mroz and Bradley have quads. Bradley has landed two quads in a single LP, BTW, at Skate America, where he placed 2nd in the LP, 3rd overall . And in the jump competition at the Broadmoor, he won by landing a 4/3/3 If Bradley hits all his jump content while the big 3 falter, he could find himself winning, as Abbott did last year. In which case, he gets to go without any arguments in the US. If Mroz suddenly lands everything (which he has yet to do this year), he too could win if the others all falter. There is a point where you can't downgrade Mroz's and Bradley's PCS far enough to cover the difference (as happened to Johnny last year, when he finished 5th overall behind both of them.)

Under no condition is Evan staying home from the Olympics, other than dire injury. At that, I wouldn't be surprised if he was on the team, contingent on a test skate.

However, the USFS has shown itself more than willing to dump Johnny, who was the bronze medallist at both Worlds and GPF in 2008 off the world team for Brandon Mroz, who would have still been able to skate at JW instead of Worlds.
Johnny better place in the top 3.

Likewise Jeremy cannot afford to finish 5th. He hasn't medalled at Worlds nor in the GPF this year. Question is, would the USFS bump Johnny from 3rd if Jeremy is 5th?

And what happens to either Mroz or Bradley if they finish 2nd? Typically, USFS has only played games with the 3rd place finisher at Nationals, and they don't do it very often, even then.

Tonichelle · Dec 12, 2009

If Bradley hits all his jump content while the big 3 falter, he could find himself winning, as Abbott did last year.

could you imagine being on teh boards were that to happen???? :eek:

I'd be over the moon, though. Spokane proved to be his break out a couple seasons ago, and I am so hoping he can keep it up!

I think at this point Johnny's safe from Jeremey if Jeremy places lower than he does...

Hsuhs · Dec 12, 2009

Jeremy really needs to make the team. His skating is too beautiful to miss.

ImaginaryPogue · Dec 12, 2009

I think doris nailed it. But if the top five looks like....

1. Lysacek
2. Rippon/Bradley/Mroz
3. Wier
4. Rippon/Bradley/Mroz
5. Abbott

I think they'll just go with the straight top three. I do think Weir and Abbott both need to reaffirm their cases at Nationals though. I'm rooting for Rippon and Abbott.

U.S. Men: Who is on the Olympic Team?

Tinymavy15

Sinnerman for the win

silverlake22

evangeline

Tonichelle

Idita-Rock-n-Roll

jennylovskt

Tonichelle

Idita-Rock-n-Roll

dorispulaski

Wicked Yankee Girl

psycho

Trewyn

museksk8r

yelyoh

museksk8r

champs

Wicked

taylorfax

janetfan

Match Penalty

dorispulaski

Wicked Yankee Girl

Tonichelle

Idita-Rock-n-Roll

Hsuhs

ImaginaryPogue

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