LADIES- Japanese Nationals (Senior)

[miki88]

I took a look at the protocols from Japan nationals, Skate America and TEB and cooked up highest number possible if both Yuna and Mao executed everything clean and got good GOE for every element within reason in the currently planned elements. For Yuna, I used her GOE from the actual competitions (averagish) and for Mao somewhat less than the Japan nationals but way higher than what she was getting internationally and I gave Moa slightly higher PCS and here is the result:

(I gave them highest levels for all non-jump elements except for step sequence, which was 3 and gave Mao higher GOE for step sequence.)

For SP: Mao --> TES 40.90 PCS 32.40 total 73.30
Yuna --> TES 44.90 PCS 32.28 total 77.18

For LP: Mao --> TES 70.65 PCS 66.56 total 137.21, SP+LP = 210.51
Yuna --> TES 75.85 PCS 66.40 total 142.25, SP+LP = 219.43

So if they both executed both every element clean and got historically reasonable (but on the higher side) GOE's for all the elements, Yuna would have an edge in both SP and LP. However, if Mao changed the 2A+2T in the LP that she skated at Japan nationals to 3A+2T and executed and got good GOE for it, she would get 141.91 for the LP and her total would be 215.21. The SP would give Yuna the edge.

So even if she had two 3A's in her LP and executed them well, she would still probably lose to a clean and well executed Yuna. Both scores would be out-of-this world scores for the ladies and not very likely. No woman have ever landed 3 clean 3A's in a competition before. Remember, this is an idealized scenario which would never happen in real life.

Wow that would be out of this world I think everyone agrees that if Yuna skates her best she'll win because her potential score is just higher, which is smart strategy on her part. But what I don't hope will happen is a similar scenario from the Grand Prix Final and SA where she doesn't skate two clean programs but still wins because of her edge in the SP. This is a likely scenario under COP where it is all about the math. Sigh.. I wish they bring back the 6.0 system when it was more about clean skating.

[Phoenix347]

Wow that would be out of this world I think everyone agrees that if Yuna skates her best she'll win because her potential score is just higher, which is smart strategy on her part. But what I don't hope will happen is a similar scenario from the Grand Prix Final and SA where she doesn't skate two clean programs but still wins because of her edge in the SP. This is a likely scenario under COP where it is all about the math. Sigh.. I wish they bring back the 6.0 system when it was more about clean skating.

If you remember, Yuna was actually in 2nd in the SP at GPF and had to win the FS to win the competition so your scenario would only apply to SA. Also, in the 2009 worlds FS, Yuna had over 68 points for PCS even though she flubbed the 3S and had an invalid spin element at the end! However I don't think the Gershwin program will ever get that high of PCS because I just don't think it's as an exciting of a program as Scheherazade. Compare that to 2007 Cup of Russia where she got 72.9 points for TES and 60.80 points for PCS (which was probably too low in comparison.) That was on of her rare 7 triples program (it had a 3Lo.) Should be a very interesting Olympics. I would love to see lights out programs from both Yuna and Mao. Wouldn't that be something?

[herro]

I took a look at the protocols from Japan nationals, Skate America and TEB and cooked up highest number possible if both Yuna and Mao executed everything clean and got good GOE for every element within reason in the currently planned elements. For Yuna, I used her GOE from the actual competitions (averagish) and for Mao somewhat less than the Japan nationals but way higher than what she was getting internationally and I gave Moa slightly higher PCS and here is the result:

(I gave them highest levels for all non-jump elements except for step sequence, which was 3 and gave Mao higher GOE for step sequence.)

For SP: Mao --> TES 40.90 PCS 32.40 total 73.30
Yuna --> TES 44.90 PCS 32.28 total 77.18

For LP: Mao --> TES 70.65 PCS 66.56 total 137.21, SP+LP = 210.51
Yuna --> TES 75.85 PCS 66.40 total 142.25, SP+LP = 219.43

So if they both executed both every element clean and got historically reasonable (but on the higher side) GOE's for all the elements, Yuna would have an edge in both SP and LP. However, if Mao changed the 2A+2T in the LP that she skated at Japan nationals to 3A+2T and executed and got good GOE for it, she would get 141.91 for the LP and her total would be 215.21. The SP would give Yuna the edge.

So even if she had two 3A's in her LP and executed them well, she would still probably lose to a clean and well executed Yuna. Both scores would be out-of-this world scores for the ladies and not very likely. No woman have ever landed 3 clean 3A's in a competition before. Remember, this is an idealized scenario which would never happen in real life.

Wow, thanks so much for your analysis Phoenix347! Exactly what I was looking for when I originally brought up the question.

[silverlake22]

I took a look at the protocols from Japan nationals, Skate America and TEB and cooked up highest number possible if both Yuna and Mao executed everything clean and got good GOE for every element within reason in the currently planned elements. For Yuna, I used her GOE from the actual competitions (averagish) and for Mao somewhat less than the Japan nationals but way higher than what she was getting internationally and I gave Moa slightly higher PCS and here is the result:

(I gave them highest levels for all non-jump elements except for step sequence, which was 3 and gave Mao higher GOE for step sequence.)

For SP: Mao --> TES 40.90 PCS 32.40 total 73.30
Yuna --> TES 44.90 PCS 32.28 total 77.18

For LP: Mao --> TES 70.65 PCS 66.56 total 137.21, SP+LP = 210.51
Yuna --> TES 75.85 PCS 66.40 total 142.25, SP+LP = 219.43

So if they both executed both every element clean and got historically reasonable (but on the higher side) GOE's for all the elements, Yuna would have an edge in both SP and LP. However, if Mao changed the 2A+2T in the LP that she skated at Japan nationals to 3A+2T and executed and got good GOE for it, she would get 141.91 for the LP and her total would be 215.21. The SP would give Yuna the edge.

So even if she had two 3A's in her LP and executed them well, she would still probably lose to a clean and well executed Yuna. Both scores would be out-of-this world scores for the ladies and not very likely. No woman have ever landed 3 clean 3A's in a competition before. Remember, this is an idealized scenario which would never happen in real life.

Good analysis, and yes those are HUGE scores! Mao usually gets good GOEs on her axel jumps, but when something is UR normally the judges will give a skater negative GOEs for the jump/combination, also I don't think Mao will be getting very good GOEs for her flip and loop jumps, which is reflected in the marks she gets from the judges internationally. Is there any way you could figure out what the score would be for a perfect Miki (with 3lz-3lo and 2a-3t) and Joannie too? I'm interested to see how they would stack up against these scores.

[Nadia01]

i think yuna is a little at advantage but not big at advantage.it's no doubt that she was great at grand prix series,but we don't know how she is going to skate in feb. you know she is the only one skater that korean expect gold medal.so maybe she is to feel much pressure. her problem is how she controls it.though other skaters have this problem,too. what i'd love to say is every major skaters have a chance to get gold medal,who could control oneself. oh it is also important.of course who wants to take gold medal have to skate cleanly.

Uhh...Korea has tons of other skaters they expect the OGM from: their entire short track team for example.

[enlight78]

Im sure that Mao would be able to equal her 75+ score she got from World Team Trophey with international judges if she goes clean; I don't if she got higher levels or goe or pcs but 73 just seems off.

[Phoenix347]

WTT is considered a bit of a cheesefest and it is generally accepted that the scores were a bit inflated. For example, Mao was awarded level 4 for her step sequence. This almost never happens in the ladies competition and it's rare even in the men's. Not only that but she got 1.80 GOE for the step sequence and her flying sit spin... which she never has before and never has again. Let's just say that her SP score there was a bit inflated.

I did an analysis of Ando's scoring possibilities. I gave her best positive GOE + a bit more from the past couple of season and gave her non-jump elements all level 4 except for layback spin which she never seem to do very well so I gave her a level 3 just to be realistic. Here's the layout:

http://img697.imageshack.us/img697/8514/ando.png

As you can see, her scoring potential is not quite as good as Mao's. Also, she hasn't done a clean 3Lz+3Lo since the 2007 World championship and there she only got 0.8 GOE for it. I was quite generous with the GOE's and even gave her a bit extra PCS than she usually gets.

I'll do Rochette later.

Edit: Although the max points potentials for all these ladies seem very high, remember that Yuna actually score over 210 points at 2009 TEB even with a 3F skipped and couple of level 3 elements.

[Phoenix347]

Here's Rochette's scoring potential if she goes super clean and get lots of GOE and get all level 4's except for step sequence:

http://img42.imageshack.us/img42/294/rochette.png

Interesting, isn't it?

[oleada]

Well, Rochette has never landed a 3Lz+3T in competition. Miki at least has landed the 3Lz+3Lo and had it ratified, albeit not recently.
I enjoy your analysis though.

[Marrymeyunakim]

Thanks for that, Phoenix. Very interesting.

Even though I think Kim will be good in Vancouver, I just have a sneaking suspicion that Mao Asada is gaining momentum at the right time. Kim has faltered in pressure cookers before, and she might do so at Vancouver... she is definitely not unbeatable.

[artsciboy]

Here's Rochette's scoring potential if she goes super clean and get lots of GOE and get all level 4's except for step sequence:

http://img42.imageshack.us/img42/294/rochette.png

Interesting, isn't it?

Very interesting. However, for her FS analysis, you have her listed as doing three 3toes, which is not allowed. The 2axel-3toe should really be a 2a-2a sequence.

[Olympia]

I read through this at dead of night, so I might have been dreaming. Are you telling me that Mao won? Awesome! And that Suzuki is on the Olympic team? Wow. I linked to the Olympic team presentation one of you supplied, and it certainly seems that in the individual disciplines, Japan has THE killer team. Imagine--Oda and Takahashi on one team, not to mention two former ladies' world champions, plus one of the most appealing skaters of the year, Suzuki. Dare I hope that Asada will be at her peak in Vancouver? It would be great if the finalists in the ladies' competition skated to the level of the two Brians in 1988, or Kwan and Lipinski in 1998, or Kerrigan and Baiul in 1994--or, to cross sports, Sampras and Agassi in their last U.S. Open a few years ago. I want the outcome to be a narrow judgment call that people are still arguing over ten years from now, not the result of a splatfest where the winner is the only one left standing because she took fewer chances than everyone else.

[silverlake22]

Well, Rochette has never landed a 3Lz+3T in competition. Miki at least has landed the 3Lz+3Lo and had it ratified, albeit not recently.
I enjoy your analysis though.

Miki does gorgeous 3lz-3lo in practice all the time though, including at the GPF and Japanese Nats. We at least know she CAN do that combination whereas Joannie we have yet to see her try even 3lz-3t in practice. But wow, those scores are really high! And between the four of them, scoring potential is very close. I really hope everyone does great because if so the results will be very interesting and exciting!

[MikiAndoFan#1]

Thank you, Phoenix347! Can you do a scoring potencial for Carolina Kostner? With 3F+3T in both SP and LP and a 2A+3T?

Thanks!

[herro]

Thanks so much Phoenix347! Although it's hypothetical, I enjoy your analysis so much. It's interesting that even after giving GOE and PCS boosts, Joannie and Miki can score the same or even better than Mao. I somehow hope that Mao's coaching staff could see this. Yes, triple axels make history, but is it as good as an OGM which can define your whole career...

But I bet many teams do this sort of thing already though. I wish I were as knowledgeable about the system as you are!