Good analysis, and yes those are HUGE scores! Mao usually gets good GOEs on her axel jumps, but when something is UR normally the judges will give a skater negative GOEs for the jump/combination, also I don't think Mao will be getting very good GOEs for her flip and loop jumps, which is reflected in the marks she gets from the judges internationally. Is there any way you could figure out what the score would be for a perfect Miki (with 3lz-3lo and 2a-3t) and Joannie too? I'm interested to see how they would stack up against these scores.
Im sure that Mao would be able to equal her 75+ score she got from World Team Trophey with international judges if she goes clean; I don't if she got higher levels or goe or pcs but 73 just seems off.
WTT is considered a bit of a cheesefest and it is generally accepted that the scores were a bit inflated. For example, Mao was awarded level 4 for her step sequence. This almost never happens in the ladies competition and it's rare even in the men's. Not only that but she got 1.80 GOE for the step sequence and her flying sit spin... which she never has before and never has again. Let's just say that her SP score there was a bit inflated.
I did an analysis of Ando's scoring possibilities. I gave her best positive GOE + a bit more from the past couple of season and gave her non-jump elements all level 4 except for layback spin which she never seem to do very well so I gave her a level 3 just to be realistic. Here's the layout:
As you can see, her scoring potential is not quite as good as Mao's. Also, she hasn't done a clean 3Lz+3Lo since the 2007 World championship and there she only got 0.8 GOE for it. I was quite generous with the GOE's and even gave her a bit extra PCS than she usually gets.
I'll do Rochette later.
Edit: Although the max points potentials for all these ladies seem very high, remember that Yuna actually score over 210 points at 2009 TEB even with a 3F skipped and couple of level 3 elements.
Last edited by Phoenix347; 12-30-2009 at 10:12 PM. Reason: Added comments
Here's Rochette's scoring potential if she goes super clean and get lots of GOE and get all level 4's except for step sequence:
Interesting, isn't it?
Well, Rochette has never landed a 3Lz+3T in competition. Miki at least has landed the 3Lz+3Lo and had it ratified, albeit not recently.
I enjoy your analysis though.
Thanks for that, Phoenix. Very interesting.
Even though I think Kim will be good in Vancouver, I just have a sneaking suspicion that Mao Asada is gaining momentum at the right time. Kim has faltered in pressure cookers before, and she might do so at Vancouver... she is definitely not unbeatable.
I read through this at dead of night, so I might have been dreaming. Are you telling me that Mao won? Awesome! And that Suzuki is on the Olympic team? Wow. I linked to the Olympic team presentation one of you supplied, and it certainly seems that in the individual disciplines, Japan has THE killer team. Imagine--Oda and Takahashi on one team, not to mention two former ladies' world champions, plus one of the most appealing skaters of the year, Suzuki. Dare I hope that Asada will be at her peak in Vancouver? It would be great if the finalists in the ladies' competition skated to the level of the two Brians in 1988, or Kwan and Lipinski in 1998, or Kerrigan and Baiul in 1994--or, to cross sports, Sampras and Agassi in their last U.S. Open a few years ago. I want the outcome to be a narrow judgment call that people are still arguing over ten years from now, not the result of a splatfest where the winner is the only one left standing because she took fewer chances than everyone else.
Thank you, Phoenix347! Can you do a scoring potencial for Carolina Kostner? With 3F+3T in both SP and LP and a 2A+3T?
Last edited by MikiAndoFan#1; 12-31-2009 at 11:44 AM.
Thanks so much Phoenix347! Although it's hypothetical, I enjoy your analysis so much. It's interesting that even after giving GOE and PCS boosts, Joannie and Miki can score the same or even better than Mao. I somehow hope that Mao's coaching staff could see this. Yes, triple axels make history, but is it as good as an OGM which can define your whole career...
But I bet many teams do this sort of thing already though. I wish I were as knowledgeable about the system as you are!