Will Mao stick to the three-3A programs and do 3A-3T in SP?

Nadia01 · Dec 27, 2009

Iscariot said:
yeah quite sad to see that even last season she had all the triples, i dont know why she didnt keep the jump layout of 2007-2008 she got 73 still the highest tech score, even with the flutz, but i guess this 3A is way important to her, and i dont think she will change something before the olympics, even if she have a meltdown at 4cc

Unless I totally misunderstood the nuance, etc. it sounded as though Mao is putting a lot of emphasis on 3A because:

1. It's the most difficult jump.
2. It's the jump that gets the most pts.
3. No other ladies in the world at her level can land it in competition.

(I got the impression from the interviews she did w/ JP media, etc.)

Although she's right about 1 & 2, I'm afraid that 3 applies to her somewhat as well because she doesn't land 3A consistently anymore and even when she lands it, there's no guarantee that she's not going to get DG. It's just puzzling that she's this focused on 3A. Doing 3A is ALL she and everyone else ever talked about leading up to Nat.

Even some of my Japanese friends said if Mao can't do 3A, she shouldn't go to Vancouver because they don't think Mao can win without 3As. Just crazy that Mao's entire legacy depends on whether or not she can do 3A rather than whether or not she can do a good program (with or without 3A).

silverlake22 · Dec 27, 2009

Nadia01 said:
Even some of my Japanese friends said if Mao can't do 3A, she shouldn't go to Vancouver because they don't think Mao can win without 3As. Just crazy that Mao's entire legacy depends on whether or not she can do 3A rather than whether or not she can do a good program (with or without 3A).

Well that's pretty much the truth. Even with her triple axels, Yuna will probably win anyways. Without the 3a, she's looking at like 4th place at best. It's not because the rest of her skating isn't goo because it is, but because she can't do a 3sal or a 3lz, if she abandons the 3a, the most triples she can do in the program is 5, and they are the less difficult triples, meaning she's technically quite a bit below the top contenders, many of who attempt 7 triples in the FS and do a 3-3 which it appears Mao can not do consistently anymore so yeah it doesn't look good but anything can happen at the Olympics. If it's a splatfest and Mao goes clean without the 3a she might end up winning..

I-witness · Dec 28, 2009

Despite negativity it has been receiving from a certain corner, I am optimistic about Mao's 3A. My reasons for being optimistic are:

(1) Her record on 3As from GPS the last year is not that bad. Here, all of her first 3As were ratified (3 out of 3 attempts). The only problem was the second 3A (one out of two attempts).
(2) She was clearly not at her best at 4CC and World. What we know is that she had an injury before 4CC and also had an issue with motivation. She said it was something she never had ever since she started skating. It seems to me she has not recovered from until WTT.
(3) She is usually a slow starter but her problems with 3A early this season turned out to be blessing in disguise. Since October, she said she has been focusing on entry into 3A and doing lot more run-throughs. This new approach seems to have been paid off. Her 3A in SP at Nationals was slightly underroated but could have been ratified by other callers. She must have also been under an immense pressure there. When she ovecame it, 3A visibly improved both in practice and LP.
(4) From competitions last year, I think even if she gets one of two 3As in LP downgraded, her score can easily be 125+ with all other clean jumps. Now that all other rivals have their own problems, this should be enough to make her a serious contender for OP podium to say the least.

I think she can change jump layout without much reduction on base value, but this would mean her LP program needs some reworking.

silverlake22 · Dec 28, 2009

I-witness said:
(4) From competitions last year, I think even if she gets one of two 3As in LP downgraded, her score can easily be 125+ with all other clean jumps. Now that all other rivals have their own problems, this should be enough to make her a serious contender for OP podium to say the least.

Last year though I think she did 3lz and 3-3s so that is different from this year where she has neither.

schiele · Dec 28, 2009

silverlake22 said:
Last year though I think she did 3lz and 3-3s so that is different from this year where she has neither.

She did at the beginning of the season, but then after getting URs and edge calls she seem to have lost the confidence in those jumps. I still think it's a mental issue more than a technical one, to lose significant amount of technical content in such a short period of time does not make sense.

Nadia01 · Dec 28, 2009

schiele said:
She did at the beginning of the season, but then after getting URs and edge calls she seem to have lost the confidence in those jumps. I still think it's a mental issue more than a technical one, to lose significant amount of technical content in such a short period of time does not make sense.

Growth spurt can cause a skater to lose jumps very fast, and I think Mao got taller last year...no?

schiele · Dec 28, 2009

Nadia01 said:
Growth spurt can cause a skater to lose jumps very fast, and I think Mao got taller last year...no?

We're still waiting clarification on this issue.

This has been previously discussed as I recall but with no definitive answer whether or not she experienced a growth spurt since late 2008.

Tinymavy15 · Dec 28, 2009

Nadia01 said:
Growth spurt can cause a skater to lose jumps very fast, and I think Mao got taller last year...no?

I think Mao is at the same height that she was when she won worlds. She did have some growing pains at some point, but not for a while I think. I guess Tat/ Mao thought it would be better to stop "wasting" her training time chaning her lutz technique and working on the 3/3 which even when clean was still not as good as Yu-na's. Now to me this is a bad attitude to take because Mao has all her eggs in one very fragile basket and faced with some very unsupportive tech callers. She also has seen that Yu-na us not without weakness and even failed to do her glorious 3/3 at the GPF. In u situation likevthe GPF Mak could win if she had the 3 Axel AND the 3/3, but not either or.

I-witness · Dec 28, 2009

silverlake22 said:
Last year though I think she did 3lz and 3-3s so that is different from this year where she has neither.

She never did 3lz in LP last year. She did 3-3 only at Nationals...

I think Mao's real problem now is 3F combo.
Especially 3F+2Lo+2Lo. She got the second and third jumps downgraded in TEB and the same here at Nationals.

Comparison between her 3F in SP and her 3F+2Lo and 3F+2Lo+2Lox in LP at Nationals is really interesting.
(SP)
3F: 5.50 + 1.00 =6.50
(3F in the scond half with the same GOE is 6.05x +1.00 =7.05)
(LP)
3F+2Lo: 7.00 + 0.40 = 7.40.
3F+2Lo<+2Lo<: 7.15x - 0.20 = 6.95
Believe it or not, she scores better with one 2Lo or even without it than with +2Lo+2Lo. This is really nonsense.:no:

It may be easy to fix this problem but the fact that she has already done this twice this season worries me. I think 3F/ 2A+2Lo+2Lo would earn higher score than 3F+2Lo+2Lo/2A. She used to do beatiful 2A+2Lo+2Lo (2007-8 LP) and now that she has ditched a very difficult entry into 2A, it would not be a very big problem to add +2Lo+2Lo there. Or even 3Lo+2Lo+2Lo might do.

silverlake22 · Dec 28, 2009

I-witness said:
She never did 3lz in LP last year. She did 3-3 only at Nationals...

I thought she did 3lz-3lo in her Clare De Lune SP all of last season? Maybe it was 3f-3lo, her flips look like lutzes to me because of the takeoff.

Mao does not look taller to me, but she does look like she's lost some weight since the 2006/2007 season, and I think this has hurt rather than help her jumps. I think she's the same height (163cm - what she was in 2006) because her sister Mai is the same height, and looking at all the pictures that come out over the years they always seem to be the same height.

April 2007: http://cache.daylife.com/imageserve/08eZfhd1EJ013/610x.jpg

2009: http://18.media.tumblr.com/oAHKGjfZPq7kqc53lho9h0d1o1_400.jpg
http://6.media.tumblr.com/oAHKGjfZPq7kqc53lho9h0d1o2_250.jpg
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3524/3902674097_683f86b7b5.jpg

So unless Mai has grown, I don't think Mao has, or if she has it's likely been only 1 or 2 cm. Not a big growth spurt.

I think Mao's biggest problem is her preference of the loop to the toe. If she could do a 3lf2t-2lo it's less likely to get downgraded than the 3f-2lo-2lo. Similarly, if she wants to go for a 3-3, it should be 3f-3t not 3f-3lo because as we've seen with Miki and Mao last season, 3lo on the end of a combination is VERY hard to get ratified.

I-witness · Dec 28, 2009

silverlake22 said:
I thought she did 3lz-3lo in her Clare De Lune SP all of last season?

I was talking about her LP jump layout last season which is eventually the same this season. I thought I made myself clear again in reply. I am not sure how you can be confused:scratch:

silverlake22 · Dec 28, 2009

I-witness said:
I was talking about her LP jump layout last season which is eventually the same this season. I thought I made myself clear again in reply. I am not sure how you can be confused:scratch:

I am just confused because if she could do a 3lutz in her SP last year, why couldn't she do it in the LP as well? Doesn't really seem to make sense. It might be worth getting an "e" call if it would allow her to attempt 7 triples in the FS

DesertRoad · Dec 28, 2009

If she can, Mao may want to consider substituting one of her combos with a 2axel sequence instead. Like instead of going for a 2axel/2toe, she can go for a 2a~2a sequence. The latter has a higher base value, a lower chance of being downgraded if she succeeds, and likely higher GOEs. As it is, she's only doing two 2a's in her LP, when she could be doing three. The double axel is probably an easy jump for her, and worth more in points than a 2loop or 2toe, even with the sequence penalty.

Tinymavy15 · Dec 28, 2009

silverlake22 said:
I am just confused because if she could do a 3lutz in her SP last year, why couldn't she do it in the LP as well? Doesn't really seem to make sense. It might be worth getting an "e" call if it would allow her to attempt 7 triples in the FS

I know right? Even a lutz with a ! or a e call would still be worth 5 points minimum. That is 5 points she doesn't have now.

silverlake22 · Dec 28, 2009

Tinymavy15 said:
I know right? Even a lutz with a ! or a e call would still be worth 5 points minimum. That is 5 points she doesn't have now.

Yeah I don't know. Silly Mao. But it's okay, I want Yuna to win anyways. I would just like to see a great battle with great programs from great skaters at the Olympics rather than everyone playing safe or a splatfest. It's just exciting when a skater lands 7 triples, even if they do get edge calls or are UR, it's just like wow, that's a LOT of triple jumps.

Marrymeyunakim · Dec 28, 2009

Mao isn't stupid, so there must be a reason as to why she's not adding a lutz into her programs. I think this is because she's become so intent on practising her 3-A, and to a lesser extent, fixing her 3-F, that she's completely ignored the sal and the Lz. Attempting to do them in her programs when she isn't entirely sure of her technique would be silly and might cause a fall...

I-witness · Dec 28, 2009

Marrymeyunakim said:
Mao isn't stupid, so there must be a reason as to why she's not adding a lutz into her programs.

Even skater who has really fixed flutz or lip, the problem with these jumps can continue to haunt later on. Miki's case comes into my mind.
Miki has fixed her Lip and her SP is with flip but does without 3F in her LP recently. I think this is because her 3F is not completely stable. Doing it both in SP and LP can put too much pressure. Miki has an excellent repatoire of jumps so she can compete without 3F in LP.
Of course, nobody is silly enough to call Miki and Morozov 'silly'....

silverlake22 · Dec 29, 2009

I-witness said:
Even skater who has really fixed flutz or lip, the problem with these jumps can continue to haunt later on. Miki's case comes into my mind.
Miki has fixed her Lip and her SP is with flip but does without 3F in her LP recently. I think this is because her 3F is not completely stable. Doing it both in SP and LP can put too much pressure. Miki has an excellent repatoire of jumps so she can compete without 3F in LP.
Of course, nobody is silly enough to call Miki and Morozov 'silly'....

Good point. Miki is not silly, sometimes I wonder about Morozov though :laugh:

. Anyways, it is different because Miki only skips one type of triple and it's just in the long. Mao skips two types of triples in the short and the long.

wonderlen3000 · Dec 29, 2009

Miki case, she can afford to skip the 3F in the LP, because she already got the 2 triple lutz and she has a lutz in the SP too. Miki also have more jumps repitroe and she can usually get good GOE on her 3S too and her 2Lo+2Lo got rarely downgraded. Even without the 3Lz+3Lo, if Miki nailed 6 triples including the 2A+3T, her TES value is almost as much as any other 7 triples jump program.

Back to Mao, with only 3A as her highest value jump, she cannot afford to skip the second 3A, if she wants to stay on the podium period. Better and smarter jump layout might be doing sequence like Akiko and Ashley.

3A, 3F, 3Lo, 3F+2T+2Lo, 3Lo-2A, 3T, 3T-2A (43.80 TES) vs. her current layout

3A, 3A+2T, 3F+2Lo, 3Lo, 3F+2Lo+2Lo, 3T, 2A (45.90 TES), with only 2 point more in base value but with 35% chances of getting < on the 3As and 2Lo, so it's not good. Mao usually have a good 2A that get +GOE so she should maximize it in jump sequences. And with her spins and PCS, it should be good enough to get on the podium.

miki88 · Dec 29, 2009

I think the order of the skaters on Olympic night plays a role on whether Mao will skip her jump or not. If she is one of the last to go, and the others made major mistakes, then maybe she will skip in order to skate clean. But if everyone else has minor mistakes or skates clean, then she won't skip any of her planned jumps. Mao seems like the type to risk it all for the gold or a medal. Also I read somewhere that she said her jump layout at Nationals is an easier version than the one she will use at Olympics, so maybe she will make some changes.

Will Mao stick to the three-3A programs and do 3A-3T in SP?

Nadia01

silverlake22

I-witness

silverlake22

schiele

Nadia01

schiele

Tinymavy15

Sinnerman for the win

I-witness

silverlake22

I-witness

silverlake22

DesertRoad

Tinymavy15

Sinnerman for the win

silverlake22

Marrymeyunakim

I-witness

silverlake22

wonderlen3000

miki88

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