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Thread: Will Mao stick to the three-3A programs and do 3A-3T in SP?

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    Dreaming and dancing Bennett's Avatar
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    Will Mao stick to the three-3A programs and do 3A-3T in SP?

    Today Mao did only one 3A at her LP. I think that this is a great strategy! Hope she sticks to it!
    But I also heard that she planned to do 3A-3T in SP. That makes me worry.

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    Custom Title Nadia01's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bennett View Post
    Today Mao did only one 3A at her LP. I think that this is a great strategy! Hope she sticks to it!
    But I also heard that she planned to do 3A-3T in SP. That makes me worry.
    Why?

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    Dreaming and dancing Bennett's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nadia01 View Post
    Why?
    Because it's so risky.

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    Custom Title Nadia01's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bennett View Post
    Because it's so risky.
    Are you saying it's risky b/c her 3A isn't consistent or risky b/c she shouldn't try 3T?

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    Meanwhile in a parallel universe .... theresa's Avatar
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    A 3A-3T (completely rotated) will really skyrocket Mao and give her a definite edge over Yu-Na....Now the chances of Mao landing this with no DG is very very very slim ( alot of emphasis upon the slim part). I dont think Mao has even tried to attempt this jump in competition yet.....As it is, Mao is already taking a risk with the 3A-2t in the sp.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Nadia01 View Post
    Are you saying it's risky b/c her 3A isn't consistent or risky b/c she shouldn't try 3T?
    Both. Her 3a has gotten more consistent but even if she lands it, it is very possible it will get at UR call. Same goes with the 3t. Tech callers are so strict now that skaters are better off doing the safer combination unless their 3-3s are super solid (Yuna and Rachael most of the time). A good 3-2 is worth more than a UR 3-3 because of GOE. I know at nationals Mao got +GOE for her 3a<+2t but that won't happen internationally.

    I don't think Mao should only do one 3a in the LP at the Olympics because if she does, her chances of winning are slim to none. If she only does one 3a, she should switch the 3f+2lo to a 3f-3lo/3f-3t because it will get her back to 6 triples and up the difficulty. If she does 2a-2t her LP will be as follows:

    2a-2t
    3a
    3f+2lo
    3lo
    3f-2lo-2lo
    3t
    2a

    That's only 5 triples, and she doesn't include a 3lutz, the most valuable triple, and doesn't have a 3-3 either. The solo 3a is her only hard jump, and it has a high possibility of being UR. This is a pretty easy jump layout so even if it is perfect she is likely to be passed by Yuna (obviously), Miki, Joannie, Akiko, and maybe even others. Yuna attempts 6 triples but two of them are 3lz and she also has two tough combinations (3lz-3t and 2a-3t) if Miki goes for the 3lz-3lo and 2a-3t then she will have 7 triples, and two of them are 3lz, even if she leaves out both combos she still has 5 triples and two are 3lz and that will be more technical difficulty than Mao has. Joannie attempts 7 triples in her long, two are 3lz, Rachael attempts 7 triples in the long, two are 3lz and she has a 3-3, and Akiko attempts 7 triples in the long.

    Mao can't attempt 7 triples in the long because she does not do 3lz or 3sal. Unless it is a splatfest and Mao is the last one standing Mao has to make a decision to do one of three things:

    - 3a-2t (keep everything else the same)
    - 3f-3lo (if she does the 2a-2t, up the first flip combo)
    - 3f-3t (if she does the 2a-2t, up the first flip combo differently)

    Mao needs to decide which one of the above combinations she has the best chance at landing and being ratified and then put it in her program. The most logical is probably to do the 3f-3t but I don't know if Mao can do that combination any more. With any of the above combinations, she will have a program technically difficult enough to be on top.

    Also if she went for 3a-3t, she would use up all her triples. She'd do two 3a and two 3t and wouldn't be able to do the two 3f. She would either have to drop the second 3t or one of the 3f. And then she wouldn't have enough jumping passes so she'd have to do a 2a and then it's worth less and I don't think she'll get a 3a-3t ratified anyways so that would be a stupid move.
    Last edited by silverlake22; 12-27-2009 at 02:26 PM.

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    Custom Title ks777's Avatar
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    Sorry but this is a dumb question. She won't go for 3a-3t in sp. She can't even land a 2a-3t without getting downgraded, why would she want to go for a harder combo? I have seen her practicing 3t-3t recently and it was very underrotated. She had a really good tech coach when she got her 3f-3t ratified. Now that she doesn't really have a coach, I highly doubt that she can even land a clean 2a-3t.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ks777 View Post
    Sorry but this is a dumb question. She won't go for 3a-3t in sp. She can't even land a 2a-3t without getting downgraded, why would she want to go for a harder combo? I have seen her practicing 3t-3t recently and it was very underrotated. She had a really good tech coach when she got her 3f-3t ratified. Now that she doesn't really have a coach, I highly doubt that she can even land a clean 2a-3t.
    That 3t3t clip is from summer. The TV station replays what they recorded in summer before national.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ks777 View Post
    Sorry but this is a dumb question. She won't go for 3a-3t in sp. She can't even land a 2a-3t without getting downgraded, why would she want to go for a harder combo? I have seen her practicing 3t-3t recently and it was very underrotated. She had a really good tech coach when she got her 3f-3t ratified. Now that she doesn't really have a coach, I highly doubt that she can even land a clean 2a-3t.
    Well at least she is challenging herself.
    Mao won the nationals for the fourth time in a row ♥♥!

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    Quote Originally Posted by ks777 View Post
    Sorry but this is a dumb question. She won't go for 3a-3t in sp. She can't even land a 2a-3t without getting downgraded, why would she want to go for a harder combo? I have seen her practicing 3t-3t recently and it was very underrotated. She had a really good tech coach when she got her 3f-3t ratified. Now that she doesn't really have a coach, I highly doubt that she can even land a clean 2a-3t.
    Guess that answers why question then. If she can't do a clean 3-3, she should go for the 3a-2t unless she wants to end up 4th or below at the Olympics.

    I know Mao's PCS are probably the second highest of all the ladies, highest being Yuna, but if she does only 5 triples, the ladies that do seven will have a point cushion that should be higher than Mao's PCS can make up for, especially for a skater like Joannie who gets high GOEs and high PCS as well. If Mao did a repeat of her Japanese nationals performances at the Olympics, she will do well, but she very well could end off the podium. On the other hand, she could also end up winning the OGM, it all depends on how everyone else skates. At this point though, I think there is only one lady skater who has an edge to win in Vancouver, and that is Yuna. Even she has been showing vulnerability recently though. Mao, Miki, Joannie - in terms of potential to score - are pretty much even, and Mao probably the least of the three just due to the nature and limitations of her program. If only she could get her 3lz and 3sal back!

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    Quote Originally Posted by silverlake22 View Post
    Guess that answers why question then. If she can't do a clean 3-3, she should go for the 3a-2t unless she wants to end up 4th or below at the Olympics.

    I know Mao's PCS are probably the second highest of all the ladies, highest being Yuna, but if she does only 5 triples, the ladies that do seven will have a point cushion that should be higher than Mao's PCS can make up for, especially for a skater like Joannie who gets high GOEs and high PCS as well. If Mao did a repeat of her Japanese nationals performances at the Olympics, she will do well, but she very well could end off the podium. On the other hand, she could also end up winning the OGM, it all depends on how everyone else skates. At this point though, I think there is only one lady skater who has an edge to win in Vancouver, and that is Yuna. Even she has been showing vulnerability recently though. Mao, Miki, Joannie - in terms of potential to score - are pretty much even, and Mao probably the least of the three just due to the nature and limitations of her program. If only she could get her 3lz and 3sal back!
    i highly doubt that most skaters get high pcs scores even if they land 7 triples
    Akiko having 7 triples have even worst program components than a junior 52 is juts nasty

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    Quote Originally Posted by Iscariot View Post
    i highly doubt that most skaters get high pcs scores even if they land 7 triples
    Akiko having 7 triples have even worst program components than a junior 52 is juts nasty
    Akiko does not, you are right, but Joannie gets very high PCS, even Rachael Flatt gets good PCS. I'm just saying that though Mao's PCS are huge, if Joannie has a program that has about 5 or more points in base value than Mao's (which she does if Mao leaves out the 3a-2t), then once GOEs are factored it, it Mao will be at a deficit of up to 10 points and I don't think her PCS will be 10 points higher than Joannie's, last year at worlds Mao, Miki, Joannie had very similar PCS and Miki and Joannie still beat her even though she attempted the two 3a.

    I really just don't get why she doesn't do a 3sal or 3lutz. I'm sure she CAN do them if she can do a 3a. If she can get just get a "!" instead of an "e" on her lutz and attempt 7 triples she will be a shoo-in for silver and could even edge out Yuna for the gold.

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    Quote Originally Posted by silverlake22 View Post
    Akiko does not, you are right, but Joannie gets very high PCS, even Rachael Flatt gets good PCS. I'm just saying that though Mao's PCS are huge, if Joannie has a program that has about 5 or more points in base value than Mao's (which she does if Mao leaves out the 3a-2t), then once GOEs are factored it, it Mao will be at a deficit of up to 10 points and I don't think her PCS will be 10 points higher than Joannie's, last year at worlds Mao, Miki, Joannie had very similar PCS and Miki and Joannie still beat her even though she attempted the two 3a.

    I really just don't get why she doesn't do a 3sal or 3lutz. I'm sure she CAN do them if she can do a 3a. If she can get just get a "!" instead of an "e" on her lutz and attempt 7 triples she will be a shoo-in for silver and could even edge out Yuna for the gold.
    yeah quite sad to see that even last season she had all the triples, i dont know why she didnt keep the jump layout of 2007-2008 she got 73 still the highest tech score, even with the flutz, but i guess this 3A is way important to her, and i dont think she will change something before the olympics, even if she have a meltdown at 4cc

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    Quote Originally Posted by Iscariot View Post
    yeah quite sad to see that even last season she had all the triples, i dont know why she didnt keep the jump layout of 2007-2008 she got 73 still the highest tech score, even with the flutz, but i guess this 3A is way important to her, and i dont think she will change something before the olympics, even if she have a meltdown at 4cc
    Yeah, I guess she just thinks the edge calls aren't worth it. Her entrance to the 3f almost looks like a 3lz though. I don't think she will meltdown at 4CC, she knows the placement there doesn't matter so I bet she will just play it safe, Yuna will not be there so she doesn't have to worry about that.

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    Quote Originally Posted by silverlake22 View Post
    Yeah, I guess she just thinks the edge calls aren't worth it. Her entrance to the 3f almost looks like a 3lz though. I don't think she will meltdown at 4CC, she knows the placement there doesn't matter so I bet she will just play it safe, Yuna will not be there so she doesn't have to worry about that.
    I highly doubt she will play safe in 4CC. She usually is not that kind of person. She even didn't consider waterdown her routine to get a spot on podium in Russia. But we will see one month later^^

    As to salcow, I think it is not wise for her to do it if she doesn't do 3F3L. Her solo 3Loop is much consistent than 3Salcow. And 3loop has a higher base value than 3 salcow. And even her 3toe is much consistent than her 3salcow, so technical-wise,she doesn't need to do 3salcow. However, if she considers doing 3F3L,that's another story.

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