Just HOW will the U.S. teams be picked?

PolymerBob · Dec 29, 2009

I have been trying to summarize the various possible ways the U.S. Olympic teams will be picked. After reading hundreds of notes on a few message boards, and taking part in a few argu...., I mean debates, I believe I have come up with every possible combination and permutation of ways the teams could be picked. Though I am sure someone will correct me if I left anything out.

OK, here goes. Possible ways the U.S. teams might be picked.

1) The USFSA will take results from the 5 international events which they listed in last year’s bulletin. The National championship will then be fairly judged, and the 6 results will be factored together to pick the teams. ( This is what the USFSA claims they will do, so I just thought I would put it first. )

2) The USFSA will take results from the 5 international events which they listed in last year’s bulletin, pick the teams, then jury-rig the results at Nationals to reflect this decision. The top 2 or 3 skaters / teams from the jury-rigged Nationals go to Vancouver.

3) The USFSA will include the 6 Grand Prix events, which were not listed in their bulletin, thereby using 11 international events. The National championship will then be fairly judged, and the 12 results will be factored together to pick the teams.

4) The USFSA will include the 6 Grand Prix events, which were not listed in their bulletin, thereby using 11 international events, and reach a decision. They will then jury-rig the results at Nationals to reflect this decision. The top 2 or 3 skaters / teams from the jury-rigged Nationals go to Vancouver.

5) The USFSA will ignore all international events and use the results from a fairly judged Nationals to pick the teams.

Have I left anything out? :scratch:

Mathman · Dec 29, 2009

I think they will do #5.

The trouble with holding them to #1 is that they never said exactly how the different international events would be factored in, only that they were all of less weight than nationals.

As for fair judging, I expect the USFSA judges to do their best. It is possible that they will be more generous than usual to skaters that they "know are good," even if those skaters make mistakes.

R.D. · Dec 29, 2009

I think they will simply use results from the upcoming Nats (for ladies in particular, but probably all 4 disciplines).

The real concern is fair judging at these Nats. I don't want any holding up, which will likely be even more evident should You-Know-Who pop in.

demarinis5 · Dec 29, 2009

#5 for the Ladies.

#1 for the Men. The men's field is deeper than the ladies and I think they will invoke #1 if certain skaters come in fourth.

#5 for Ice Dance D/W and B/A are going to go 1-2 either way and who ever takes Bronze will make the team too.

#5 for Pairs.

krenseby · Dec 29, 2009

R.D. said:
I think they will simply use results from the upcoming Nats (for ladies in particular, but probably all 4 disciplines).

The real concern is fair judging at these Nats. I don't want any holding up, which will likely be even more evident should You-Know-Who pop in.

Ahem, so now we do not dare mention the name of this potential intruder? This person is just hinted at, oh so subtly.

PolymerBob · Dec 29, 2009

demarinis5 said:
#5 for the Ladies.

#1 for the Men. The men's field is deeper than the ladies and I think they will invoke #1 if certain skaters come in fourth.

#5 for Ice Dance D/W and B/A are going to go 1-2 either way and who ever takes Bronze will make the team too.

#5 for Pairs.

I think Evan will be given some leeway if he comes in 4th or 5th in a tight contest. Probably Tanith and Ben will be OK if they come in 4th, again in a tight contest, but I don't think that will happen.

What is critical for the ladies is whether the 6 Grand Prix events will be considered. If only the original 5 ISU events are considered, Caroline has an advantage as top U.S. lady in 2 of those 5 events. Rachael, Ashley and Christina also win points. If we throw in the 6 GP events, the situation changes.

Tinymavy15 · Dec 29, 2009

Probably Tanith and Ben will be OK if they come in 4th

Tanith and Ben may not be able to beat Meryl and Charlie but they will score at least 10 points over the rest of the field barring disaster (like a fall or two). The are assured a trip to Vancouver, their only problem is getting the National title.

for the Men USFSA will send Evan no matter what and use the next top two men at nationals.

For the ladies who knows. I really have no idea at this point what will happen at nats and what USFSA will do.

Pairs...I think Nationals will be the only factor. None of our pairs have been significant the past year (surprise), I can see Keauna and Rockne making the team even if they place third, but more likely the judges will give them second by a point to make it easier.

silverlake22 · Dec 29, 2009

I just really want the ladies event to be judged fairly. There are so many ladies at essentially the same level competing at nats so the judges can pretty much decide who wins. I really do not want a repeat of last year though- there were so many girls that landed more than 3 triples in the FS that I thought it was kind of beat Alissa won by such a huge margin. The results could have gone either way, but they could have at least made her win by just a point and not eight.

Anyways, I think all the other disciplines will be judged fairly and I have hope that the ladies event will be too. The USFSA knows what's up, they know who did well at worlds and who melted under the pressure, who is consistent and who is hot and cold, who can completely bomb and who can stay on her feet even when things go wrong. I don't think a stupid decision will be made for some reason, especially if diva doesn't show...

Tonichelle · Dec 30, 2009

R.D. said:
I don't want any holding up, which will likely be even more evident should You-Know-Who pop in.

If Michelle Kwan joins in the fight and wins I will eat my hat.

DesertRoad · Dec 30, 2009

Out of some bureaucrat's ***. The stick stays in, though.

R.D. · Dec 30, 2009

Tonichelle said:
If Michelle Kwan joins in the fight and wins I will eat my hat.

Same here

...especially since she said she'd definitely not compete... :eek:

Out of some bureaucrat's ***. The stick stays in, though.

jovani2293 · Dec 30, 2009

So, this years,2010, national champions automatically go to the olympics. Am I correct. Or will the jury overturn that and send the best skaters.

Hsuhs · Dec 30, 2009

PolymerBob said:
5) The USFSA will ignore all international events and use the results from a fairly judged Nationals to pick the teams.

I think they'll go for this option in mens, unless the podium ends up to be completely unexpected, that is if all 3 top US men at the moment, Evan, Jeremy and Johnny don't medal.
If that happens, USFS will switch to a more creative interpretation of its own criteria, IMO. But the chances of that happening are very slim, IMO.

bigsisjiejie · Dec 30, 2009

jovani2293 said:
So, this years,2010, national champions automatically go to the olympics. Am I correct. Or will the jury overturn that and send the best skaters.

No, as of this year, the USFS gave themselves wiggle room to not send the national champion if they are so moved. The skaters themselves won't have any grounds for recourse on whatever decision happens. However, IMHO for the ladies, if the champion turns out to be:
Rachael or Ashley--she will definitely go to the Olympics
Alyssa or Mirai--she will possibly go to the Olympics but could get passed over in favor of either of the above.
All others including Zhang and Diva--doubtful they'd get sent to Olympics.

Whatever happens in the other disciplines, the result is likely to produce a winner completely deserving of going, therefore unlikely to be deviations from past practices on sending natl champ.

Trewyn · Dec 30, 2009

I think that who-ever wins the title, can be relatively certain of the trip to Vancouver. In Ladies Caroline, Mirai, or any of the more unexperienced girls (like Alexe) placing second could see their olympic spot given to Ashley or Rachael should the latter two place third and the standings are very tight. But then again, the judging might be twisted so that this scenario doesn't occur.

I agree that whatever Evan's placement, he will be send to the Olympics. Jeremy and Johnny will have to fight harder for their ticket; both should make the top three to be certain. But what if say Rippon wins with Johnny and Jeremy second and third and Evan fourth? Will Jeremy be left off of the team? Scary thought.

bigsisjiejie · Dec 30, 2009

Those PCS numbers are going to speak volumes.

PolymerBob · Dec 30, 2009

bigsisjiejie said:
All others including Zhang and Diva--doubtful they'd get sent to Olympics.

Caroline was top U.S. lady at 2 of the 5 critical ISU events. She might be bumped up, but not down.

I would say if any of the 6 contenders, Alissa, Ashley, Caroline, Mirai, Rachael and She-Who-May-Not-Be-Named, come in 1st or 2nd, she is on the team. If someone else slips in, I have no idea.

The top American lady in one of the critical events, the Junior GP Final, was Christina Gao. I don't know if that will make her a contender.

Joesitz (RIP) · Dec 30, 2009

us

From what I understand, the winners of the respective Nationals will automatically qualify for the Olympic team. Has anyone heard differently?

Depending on the remaining skaters, it will be the USFS decision on their body-of-work which includes the results of the Nationals.

Who will win the US Nationals is a wait and see.

Skaters/Teams who have a good chance of qualifying by USFS decision, imo will be, in no particular order:

Evan, Jeremy, Johnny
(Rippon, Bradley, Carriere must win Nationals and delete one of the 3 decisions.)

Rachael, Ashley
(Caroline, Alyssa, Mirai,Kimmie must win Nationals and delete one of the 2 decisions)

McLaughlin/Brubaker, Inoue/Baldwin
(Denney/Barrett or Evora/Ladwiq must win Nationals and delete one of of the 2 decisions)

Belbin/Agosto, Davis/White, Navarro/Bommentre
(Samuelson/Bates, Chock/Zurlein must win Nationals and delete one of the 3 decisions)

The above is Just My Opinion.

mskater93 · Dec 30, 2009

Joesitz said:
From what I understand, the winners of the respective Nationals will automatically qualify for the Olympic team. Has anyone heard differently?

Depending on the remaining skaters, it will be the USFS decision on their body-of-work which includes the results of the Nationals.

Who will win the US Nationals is a wait and see.

Skaters/Teams who have a good chance of qualifying by USFS decision, imo will be, in no particular order:

Evan, Jeremy, Johnny
(Rippon, Bradley, Carriere must win Nationals and delete one of the 3 decisions.)

Rachael, Ashley
(Caroline, Alyssa, Mirai,Kimmie must win Nationals and delete one of the 2 decisions)

McLaughlin/Brubaker, Inoue/Baldwin
(Denney/Barrett or Evora/Ladwiq must win Nationals and delete one of of the 2 decisions)

Belbin/Agosto, Davis/White, Navarro/Bommentre
(Samuelson/Bates, Chock/Zurlein must win Nationals and delete one of the 3 decisions)

The above is Just My Opinion.

Winning Nationals does not GUARANTEE an Olympic berth per the criteria USFS posted earlier this year (this takes the "Olympic Qualifier" out of the National Championships and leaves the money in the coffers of USFS versus USOC, although winning Nationals punches your ticket to Worlds.

Kimmie's season is done. When she didn't skate her Internationals, it ended her season. She WILL NOT (CAN NOT) be at Nationals.

While I agree with your probable top 2 ladies and top 3 men, Dance and Pairs isn't most likely for your second/third spots as I/B are not USFS "favorites" nor do they have a great body of international work to point at - D/B have better scoring potential. Same for N/B in dance - they aren't well connected politcally and S/B had a pretty good showing in theit first senior Worlds last year and their edge and flow is a lot more seemless than N/B. Pairs will likely be top 2 teams and whoever is 3rd in dance will get the spot.
My suspicion for pairs is M/B winning and D/B second with these teams going to Vancouver.
My suspicion for dance is B/A winning in a tight contest with D/W (less than a point will separate these two teams), S/B third after a 10 point + gap with the top 2 (don't forget they are an "Igor Team" with some Senior experience and are well received internationally for a country's 3rd team), C/Z fourth and N/B 5th.

Mathman · Dec 30, 2009

I am surprised that we keep going around and around about this, trying to guess what the USFSA's International Committee and Governing Council might or might not be thinking. We have been told over and over by a 10-year member of the USFSA Governing Council exactly what they are going to do.

Here is one post among several on the Sasha thread.

http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/showthread.php?p=441062#post441062

Just HOW will the U.S. teams be picked?

PolymerBob

Mathman

R.D.

demarinis5

Gold for the Winter Prince!

krenseby

PolymerBob

Tinymavy15

Sinnerman for the win

silverlake22

Tonichelle

Idita-Rock-n-Roll

DesertRoad

R.D.

jovani2293

Hsuhs

bigsisjiejie

Trewyn

bigsisjiejie

PolymerBob

Joesitz (RIP)

mskater93

Mathman

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