Olympic Gold Dance Team

jcoates said:

I think part of the reason some have trouble seeing D/W or V/M as OGMs is b/c there is such a tight race this season for the top. In almost every past Olys in dance there has been a clear fave coming in or at least a prominent first team. Only in 94 was there really anything like this year and even then there were differences. T/D were uncertainties b/c of their time off. U/Z were probably the co-faves but had weaker material that year. G/P were talented and decorated skaters but had not won a big event yet. So to look at that event in hindsight, G/Ps stature is due in some part to what they did in later seasons to solidify their win.
Looking at that fact and the fact that the last two world champs had never medalled before. I think it's safe to say that the judges are open to rewarding whoever skates best despite our own biases toward our faves.

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Tying into your point, even Urmanov and Baiul that year were not the most decorated competitors in either field, respectively, but they won! It all comes down to who has "the skate" in the judges eyes when there are so many strong competitors in the hunt.

I think that's what makes this year so interesting and also so similar to 94. Back then, the shift in Olympic scheduling meant there was only one intervening year in which to hold a WC. That meant there really was no consensus skater or team coming into those Olys. Of all the supposed faves coming in, only one ended up winning (G/G). For this Olympics, there has been a different winner at Worlds every year in each discipline except pairs. That's why there is so much depth in the men's and dance fields in particular.

In addition, many great names whom we revere now, were merely contenders heading into their winning performances. Three of the best examples are Hamill, Witt and Curry. None of them had won a WC prior to winning gold (in Witt's case the first time). They had each medalled, but only Hamill had done it more than once. They each beat the last two world champions in route to winning gold. In fact, their triumphs ere also similar to this year in that their lead up cycles of WCs had a different champion each year. While they were each considered medal hopes, they were not overwhelming faves and in fact the aforementioned world champs they defeated would have been considered much better bets for various reasons. For Hamill, she was facing two women who did triple toes while she only did doubles. Curry was considered solid all around prior to Innsbruck but not outstanding. Witt was not considered strong enough in figures and a tad inconsistent. Still they each overcame expectations and won, often by showing the judges how much they had improved. They each went on to build the reputations we remember them for by winning gold and then after making their Olympic mark.

So to say that a team has the look of an OGM is a bit of an uncertainty at times when there are clearly very tight races and multiple contenders for the top.

1. It would be pretty incredible if D/W, who have never medalled at worlds, actually won at the Olympics. New World Order indeed.

2. What's terrifically exciting about both Davis/White and Virtue/Moir is that despite the high scores, they have things they can work on AND we know it's within their capabilities to do so. We know Davis/White can get the levels while maintaining their high standard of skating (weren't they the first team to get all level fours?). We know that Virtue/Moir can fiddle and fine tune their programs so that by the highest stage they're ready (see their amazingly quick improvement from Canadian Nationals to Four Continents to Worlds in 2009, especially in the FD).

3. The opposite is the worry for Domnina and Shabalin. From what I can tell, it was always a race against time once they announced his diagnosis, and if their Nationals performance is any indicator, he lost. DelSchos is in a trickier arena for me in that we haven't even seen them compete yet. It'll be over a year since their last competition (assuming they're at Euros - longer if not, of course). Just how well positioned are they.

4. So that leaves Belbin/Agosto. I genuinely think if they lose Nationals, it's over for them. They won't be able to regroup enough to win Olympic Gold. If they win Nationals but by only the Compulsories (a la V/M's bronze at Worlds), I'd be worried, but not entirely dismissive of their chances.

Right now, I think V/M for gold, B/A for silver, D/W for bronze, with DelSchos sneaking in for the bronze if they're healthy.

CD
1. D&S
2. B&A
3. V&M
4. D&W

OD
1. D&W
2. V&M
3. B&A
4. D&S

I know reverse order. Which means, I think everyone will be about tied up before the FD. I think this is good, whoever wins the FD takes it, hopefully.

FD
1. B&A
2. V&M
3. D&W
4. D&S

So, who wins, I don't know. It's up to the points, not the ordinal.

Because I haven't seen the French team at all this year, I'm not considering them yet, but of course, they could swoop in for a medal. They are like the Shen & Zhao team of the last Olympic.

Davis and White have emerged as the team to beat this season...they have been undefeated this year and are the reigning U.S. Champs. I strongly believe they will win a close race in Spokane and enter Vancouver as two-time national champs...a big PCS boost.
Domina and Shabalin will be over-scored, I am certain if they even hold out until February. Despite their poor showing at nationals I am sure they will not be out of the medal contention or even gold.
I am sorry to say that I think Tanith and Ben peaked in 2006 and were robbed of the gold then. They should have also won last year at worlds and then I would not be so sad to see go. I do like both their programs this year, but they seem slow to me most of the time and have not improved enough in the compulsories to beat the Russians. Their lifts seem hesitant compared to the younger teams.
Virtue and Moir I can really see walking away with this thing. I have yet to see them really shaken by nerves, so I think they can handle the home country crowd and their programs are winners. That plus the home country PCS boost make them my pics for Gold.

In short,

Gold: Virtue/Moir
Silver: Davis/White
Bronze: Domina/ Shablin

Tinymavy15 said:

plus the home country PCS boost make them my pics for Gold.

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really now?

Tinymavy15 said:

Domina and Shabalin will be over-scored, I am certain if they even hold out until February. Despite their poor showing at nationals I am sure they will not be out of the medal contention or even gold.
I am sorry to say that I think Tanith and Ben peaked in 2006 and were robbed of the gold then. They should have also won last year at worlds and then I would not be so sad to see go. I do like both their programs this year, but they seem slow to me most of the time and have not improved enough in the compulsories to beat the Russians.

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Really, I thought they were lucky to medal at the games. they were never an exceptional Compulsory dancers and are only improving now. So, their placement at CD are justified, this coupled with the fact that they made an on twizzles in the FD gave the Russians enough space to win the Gold.

I would have had B/A 4 or 5th.

Gold; Navka/ Kostamarov
Silver: Denkova/Staviski
Bronze elobel / Schoenfelder

Didn't Denkova/Staviski have a major error in their OD that season?

If we are talking about 2006, B/A did place fourth in the FD at both Olys and Worlds. Del/Sch actually were second in the FD at Olys and D/V were second in the FD at worlds. B/A's strongest segment by far was the OD that year, especially at Olys.

The OD in Torino was a hot mess an only about three of the top teams were close to clean in that segment. Worlds was a much closer fight even with N/K and G/G not competing. The placements at both events were all over the map except. Looking back at the scores and protocols, Vancouver could be similarly close, but hopefully far cleaner.

The real important thing for all of us to get a FAIR, Acceptable result, whatever is that, based on what happened on the ice.
Too much speculation lessens the chance to get it.
I don`t know how much chance we have for that, but that what WE, the ATHLETS , and the SPORT itself desperitely needs now. Let`s hope for that.

ImaginaryPogue said:

Didn't Denkova/Staviski have a major error in their OD that season?

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Yes, i think it was their spin in OD, but they more than made it up with their FD. but, was underscored their. remember they score mighty goof with the same FD at the worlds.

life684 said:

Yes, i think it was their spin in OD, but they more than made it up with their FD. but, was underscored their. remember they score mighty goof with the same FD at the worlds.

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They missed the spin he didn't get hold of her leg .Also their twizzles were off .
I never really liked the Adagio FD much the serpentine step sequence was slow but liked the end part.On the other hand Seven deadly sins was fantastic.
I think D/W remind me a little of Den/Stav .They're not polished skaters and are a little rough around the edges but they're exciting to watch.
I wish they would have been around to skate these olympics .
I keep changing my mind about winners.I really want Del/Shoenfelder to win but it's a big ask.I think one of the more mature skaters will win either D/S X2 orB/A.

nuge said:

I wish they would have been around to skate these olympics .
I keep changing my mind about winners.I really want Del/Shoenfelder to win but it's a big ask.I think one of the more mature skaters will win either D/S X2 orB/A.

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I agree both D/S and B/A looks more like a woman and a man skating together, but V/M and D/W are much more like girl and boy skating together. i hope they will mature in next olympics cycle .

Well judges don't always share that point of view. Otherwise many young skaters would not have been rewarded.

Plushenko-World Bronze age 15
Yagudin-World Gold age 18
Lipinski-World Gold age 14; Olympic Gold age 15
Kwan-World Gold age 15; Olympic Silver age 17
Klimova-Euro and Olympic Bronze age 17; Olympic Silver age 21; Olympic gold age 25
Linichuk-World Gold age 22; Olympic gold age 24
Yamaguchi-World Gold age 19; Olympic Gold age 20
Fleming-World Gold age 17; Olympic Gold age 19
Hamill-World and Olympic Gold age 19
Witt- World and Olympic Gold age 18
Belbin- World Silver age 20; Olympic Silver age 21

There are dozens of others. It is possible. There is a minimum age requirement to compete not to win or medal. You don't have to be 30 to be and OGM or win a medal of any other color.

life684 said:

I agree both D/S and B/A looks more like a woman and a man skating together, but V/M and D/W are much more like girl and boy skating together.

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So, which style is to be preferred, more mature or more youthful?

Mathman said:

So, which style is to be preferred, more mature or more youthful?

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I like more mature style of skating, but judges may disagree with me.

bigdeal said:

The real important thing for all of us to get a FAIR, Acceptable result, whatever is that, based on what happened on the ice.
Too much speculation lessens the chance to get it.
I don`t know how much chance we have for that, but that what WE, the ATHLETS , and the SPORT itself desperitely needs now. Let`s hope for that.

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Yep.

The unfortunate thing is FS, particularly dance is subjective. I'm prepared to bet that there will be screams of wuzrobbed regardless of what the podium looks like. But one can hope, aye?

ITA that D/W and V/M both have room to mature (they're matured for their age though, particularly V/M imo). Regardless of what happens in Vancouver, I hope both teams stay on for Sochi. I'm totally dying to see DelSchoes' programmes. DomShabs are a hot mess and I just don't think Max's knee is going to get any better. B/A have been somewhat flying under the radar all season. We'll see at US Nationals.

Truth be told, I really hope everyone skates well with no slip-ups and we don't see a repeat of the Torino OD. And that V/M bring the house down with a performance of Mahler's Adagietto that will be remembered as a classic in years to come.

Won't make any predictions for fear of jinxing my favourites. I would be very happy if the podium consists of DelSchoes, V/M and D/W in any order though.

Now, after US Championships and EuroChamps, it seems that the likely fight will be between Davis/White and Virtue/Moir. The judges already send all of their sign, they prefer D/W.
I have no problem with that, even if I find V/M slightly better. It all should depend on what happening on the ice.
I think, the predecided fact Dom/Shabalin HAS to win Gold seems to slip away, but still didn't fully given up by some judges and politicians.
The US Championships brought the possibility away from Belbin/Agosto to win, who is a clearly better team this year of the Linichuk team. So, all their politics will be behind Domnina/Shabalin from now. Their performance and form is just not enough to push tem to the top without a major scandal. They will pushed up to the podium (seems to be a gift, based on what we' had seen until now).

The real question is Delobel-Schoenfelder. It should be their competition with a full training session behind.... But now...
I don't think their PC scores are "built enough" without competing since almost 2 years ( ala Torvil-Dean 1994....). Even with that they should have a slight chance if they perform well ( don't forget the Russian-French axis behind the scenes).
So, their fair winning would make me happy (like all the fair results should).
Let's hope not to get the same judging than in Tallinn!!!!!!!!!!!