13 points mean nothing at Olys, but will count at 2010 Worlds. Much depends on who will leave after Olys. Who among US Ladies can manage a 4th place and a 9th place, or a 5th and 8th, or a 6th and 7th at 2010 Worlds?
This too, will be a big contest for the US Ladies - maybe bigger if the US Ladies are to get in the medal range for 2011.
Keeping in mind the field at the World Championships could very well be MINUS several top skaters who may take time off, turn pro or retire following the Olympics, earning three spots for the 2011 Worlds for the U.S. ladies probably won't be an impossible feat. I believe Cohen, Flatt, Czisny, Wagner and even Nagasu (Zhang not so much) could all easily finish in the top section of skaters, especially with many of the big names out. Is 5th and 8th place really THAT hard to do?Originally Posted by Joesitz
Given that only one nation did it for 2010....
I think it will be a difficult task for ANY two US ladies to place high enough to get the magic number and 3 spots for 2011. I'd be pretty confident Rachael could pull off a 5th-8th place (she's done it before, after all!) but as for the rest of the pack....maybe a completely 2-program clean and on-fire Alyssa, but when have we last seen that happen? Ashley might be able to do it but only with skates free of edge calls, downgrades, and other mistakes.
To a large extent, placement of US ladies is going to depend on whether certain more erratic portions of the field (ahem, Kostner, Lepisto for example) bring their A game or their evil twins. Put another way, high placements of US ladies, even if relatively great skates, are going to depend on some others screwing up.
Zhang came in 4th at 4CC last year beating both Flatt and Czisny so even she could probably pull it off barring a SC repeat. But I assume all the ladies will be at worlds? I mean, Yukari will be there instead of Akiko, which makes it easier b/c IMO Akiko is a much better skater. I guess Rochette could retire and skip worlds. Beyond that....I don't see Mao, Miki, or Yuna retiring this year and certainly not before worlds, unless maybe if one of them wins the OGM.Keeping in mind the field at the World Championships could very well be MINUS several top skaters who may take time off, turn pro or retire following the Olympics, earning three spots for the 2011 Worlds for the U.S. ladies probably won't be an impossible feat. I believe Cohen, Flatt, Czisny, Wagner and even Nagasu (Zhang not so much) could all easily finish in the top section of skaters, especially with many of the big names out. Is 5th and 8th place really THAT hard to do?
It really does depend on what happens though. I mean, Meissner won in 06 and everyone thought she was a longshot for any color medal, let alone the Gold. If Carolina and Laura skate as usual the US ladies should be able to beat them or finish comparably. If one of the top guns is missing, I could see Rachael being 4th, then someone would just have to be 8th or 9th, which I think Wagner definitely and probably even Czisny, Nagasu, or Zhang could manage so long as they don't splat it up.
In the wake of the Olympic ladies competition, I'm having to rethink my position. Things are definitely looking brighter now than back in January, for the US to make that magic "13" from Flatt and Nagasu. But still not a shoo-in.
should be no problem for the us --it will be easier than before, not unexpected-but expected.
going back from start of olympics if the women finished within allotted number 14-13 and the women were young enought during the next 4 years they got 3 girls.
2006 --they total was 15-sasha pulled out, that left kimmie and emily at the olympics theycombined 13 at the olympics- so their so-so skate in 2007 allowed 13--when kimmie skated worse in 2008 and ashley didn't perform correct they dropped.
yes-it isn't a guarantte but 4 and 7 is 11 and now for the 4 years -we can assume the rachel and mirai will be up intop group at naitonals and more likely going to worlds. with 5th last year and now miria-yes they can make it-despite,laura, kostner-is she going or is valentina marchie going instead because she won italian nationals.even if alena, ksenia, miki etc.goes the us should be expected to get 3,
no-rachel and miria can't bomb-but skating decent they still can get 13 for 3
No, not a shoo-in...
My view is Rachael and Mirai should be able to pull it off but my big concern is that they lose steam. It'll be their third major competition in a row... and they did so well in both. Can they do YET again? Probably being teenagers helps.
Which of the ladies won't be there? I'm expecting nearly all the Olympic contenders to be there, with replacements otherwise (Yukari for Akiko, for example). But yeah, I'm thinking it's very likely.
if Mirai and Rachel get the same placements as last time then they're in
I don't expect Joannie to go to Worlds, it's time for her to truly grieve and she may be emotionally spent come worlds... so there's a spot open...
They are both pretty strong competitors. My hope is that one of the Olympic Medalists won't show up and Mirai will continue to get deserved scores and not get dinged for URs. Getting 3 spots shouldn't be an issue, but Europe is a big factor. I heard Marchei might go instead of Kostner, and both Flatt and Nagasu should be able to beat her, and Joannie may not be there either. The only way I think they wouldn't get 3 spots back would be if: 1.) Mirai gets underscored in PCS and gets dinged for URs (potentially Rachael too now) or 2.) Lepisto, Gedevanishvilli, Leonova, Kostner if she shows are all clean and Mirai and/or Rachael don't have their best performances. I still feel like they should both be able to beat a clean Leonova and Gedevanishvilli as long as they skate decently, but you never know with the European ladies.
Well, it's hard to be worried about Kostner at this point, which is very sad. We'll see what happens there. I really feel that Mirai and Rachael are stronger than Elene and Leonova, but I'm no judge. With Lepisto it's tougher but Laura does need to be perfect. She's no Mao or Yuna who can afford to make very visible mistakes and still finish way ahead of the Americans... I think it's sort of an even match there with Mirai when they are both clean ... but not sure the judges would see it that way given Lepisto's skating pedigree...
Bottom line, if Rachael and Mirai are clean I really am not too worried about a 13 finish... So I really wish them the very best of luck!
However, I will certainly not crucify either of them if them miss... It won't take away from their solid Olympic performances.
I agree, but sometimes judging is funky and I feel Europeans are sometimes rewarded for not having meltdowns. But who knows, Rachael and Mirai are more consistent than the Euro ladies anyways. It shouldn't be an issue but if they don't do manage to get three spots back it's not a huge deal.
I give it a 40% chance. Mirai was pretty darn inspired at the Olympics. If she can pull off two more clean skates that would be quite an accomplishment and come back from a tough start to her competitive season
I'd say the likelyhood is much higher than 40%. I have a feeling one or more of the medal favorites will falter, and apart from those four skaters (Yuna, Mao, Joannie, Miki) only a stellar Carolina or Laura should place above Mirai and Rachael if they perform as well as they have been recently. I tend to think Korpi, Gedevanishvilli, and Leonova will not be clean and even if they are, Rachael and Mirai are stronger skaters (Korpi and Gedevanishvilli only attempt 5 triples in their FS and Leonova's skating is a bit unpolished). Akiko could potentially be ahead of the US girls but given her less difficult jump layout in the SP (flip and loop instead of lutz and flip, and no 3-3, which both Rachael and Mirai plan to do), low PCS, and tendency to make little mistakes in the SP, I tend to think the US girls will beat her too.
So basically, even if Yuna, Mao, Joannie, Miki and either Carolina or Laura (but not both, but honestly I doubt they'll both be stellar at the same compeition) finish ahead of Mirai and Rachael, that means 6th and 7th and the US still gets 3 spots. It's also very possible for Mirai and/or Rachael to finish ahead of Joannie and/or Miki just because those two are more prone to mistakes and meltdowns than the US ladies, and if Mao skates like she did during the GP they could potentially beat her too. I wouldn't be surprised to see Mirai on the podium at worlds, though a lot depends on if she gets dinged for URs which now is a concern for Rachael too. I'd say they have a 75% chance of getting 3 spots back, they are tough competitors and I think they want to show the world they can compete with the top.
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