LAST MINUTE Thoughts on Ladies
So, with half of Nationals complete, the faves in Pairs did not win their respective competition and missed out on Olys. No big surprises in the Men's event. The judging has been surprisingly fair so far. Will this carry over into next weekend? That is yet to be seen.
With only 4 days until the ladies' SP, competitors are either in Spokane or are on their way. The big thing, though, is that Cohen has yet to WD. Nicks claims he's going back to get her, and FSO retweeted a Hersh tweet that said he texted Cohen to confirm her plans and she said everything's a go. So all indicators point to her being a show after all. As to whether she will compete, or WD before or after the SP is anyone's guess, but it's looking more like we have to start assuming that she's part of the equation. So with that said:
- The SP is critical. If everyone brings it, I say it's going to be close (within ~6 points) among the contenders. But realistically, some are going to bring it while others will likely fall short. The question, though, is whether this will be a competition decided in the SP or FS? I say the latter, unless someone skates a blinder while everyone else struggles.
So here's my sheet for the short program:
Cohen- This is her forte. This is where she needs to make her mark, make it known to the world that she is BACK. If she cannot deliver her SP, she may as well head on out of the arena, because she needs a buffer in case she falters in the FS, which is basically a given based on her competitive history. She cannot afford mistakes in both phases of the competition, particularly if the other ladies bring it in the SP.
Flatt- She just needs to stay upright here, although she might be able to get away with a stumble on that second triple like at SA- while that will keep her way behind the top international ladies, at Nationals it should be good enough to hang in there.
Wagner- Just avoid a repeat of last year...please. But she also must stop being tentative, something she admitted herself after the SP at the GPF. Just focus, go out and attack.
Czisny- I'd have her as the second strongest SP skater, behind Cohen. If she hits her SP she's in contention, no questions asked. She is that good. On the other hand, if she slips up, she will take herself OUT of contention because her FS simply is not strong enough to bump her up, particularly if everyone else brings it in the SP (or even two others- that will be enough to keep her off the Team)
Nagasu/Zhang- it's basically the same story for these two. Better watch those jumps.
There could be other ladies right in the mix after the SP. I would not be surprised to see some unfamiliar names sprinkled in there. The pressure is on The Big Six, and others could sneak right in and take advantage of that.
Last edited by R.D.; 01-18-2010 at 01:42 AM.
Reason: clear up the confusion; also, minor wording changes
I like pie.
um, Jeremy and Evan were equally favored to win...
Originally Posted by R.D.
I like pie.
see, you should really pay attention to the other disiplines (which are far more interesting than the ladies... no matter the competition). Jeremy was the reigning National champion, and was (obviously) just as capable to take it... he's a much cleaner skater, and his programs are more CoP friendly.
the men's even pretty much went on like it should have.
I like pie.
but that's how you opened your post... it's all in the first couple of lines...(journalism major coming out)
Fixed. Thus, all my OT posts have been removed.
Anyway, forgetting this, what are your last-minute thoughts on the ladies' competition? Do you agree with what I said above, or do you have different thoughts? Sound off here.
Last edited by R.D.; 01-18-2010 at 01:35 AM.
I like pie.
such a cheater
ETA - anyway
Yes, I think the judging will continue in this strain. Where I'd be worried most is Ice Dance, but then again... who knows. It could turn out very fair and my emotions will just be too tied into the event to see it.
I will agree that if Cohen lays down a solid SP she'll be rewarded for it. So long as the tech caller is fair (aka nails her as hard as they nail the other ladies) then I think the chips will fall where they will and I'll be fine with it.
Ashley Wagner has the right mentality when it comes to the event, and Sasha's return, but she has to nail everything perfectly. None of this UR crap she keeps fighting.
Caroline and Mirai still look like little girls trying to get teh bigger girls to play with them. Mirai needs to calm down and focus and not worry about what we're all thinking. Trust her body and muscle memory and find the joy she had in 2008. Caroline, like Wagner, needs to get past the URs... and speed it up a bit... she's skating against Sasha Cohen, her flexibility won't impress as much this time around...
Last edited by Tonichelle; 01-18-2010 at 01:30 AM.
Nice post! Couldn't have written it better myself. My thoughts:
Originally Posted by R.D.
We know that Nagasu can whip out an amazing SP (see COC), same with Alissa (see SC), same with Ashley (see NHK).
We also know that Flatt can whip out those triples during the LP (see SA). And we know that even with a mistake (especially with a 3-3) she can still stay in the mix.
Zhang has not shown a lot of power and confidence (she just seems really mad at herself all the time). But perhaps she's using that energy to train harder and we could be surprise on Thursday.
What we know from Cohen's came is that her coach has said that "we'll be surprised" and that she's had "good practices." Not sure how any of that will translate, and I agree RD, the SP will tell the tale.
all i am saying-i am reserving my jcomments.
i basically agree a little but disagree more.
Sasha - I would be shocked to see her show up - if she shows up, who knows what she will do - but it would be cool to see
My $ is on Flatt and Wagner - this is a game of nerves not fine lines - the best thing for us is to see everyone skate their guts out and let the chips fall where they may - if we see anything near Abbott and Denney and Barrett - we are in for a treat - from a Canadian fan
I wonder if Rachael feels more pressure than before now that she's Tom Z's last big hope for Vancouver. Especially given how he really talked this past summer about how his students could take anyone on.
Everyone is feeling pressure. Of course! It's the Oly Trials.
I trust Rachel to handle her nerves reasonably but only Cohen and Hughes have done this before so you never know. I think she will rise to the occasion, though.
First of all, I don't think any US lady will surpass Abbott in popularity going into the Olys. It just isn't a Lady's Year. Having said that,back to the US Nats:
Sasha and Rachael seem to be the top Faves for Nats' results, and will go quietly unto the Olys. But the bronze medalist, which is up for grabs,will also go to Worlds since I don't think Sasha will stretch her return that far.
We will be speaking of this later on another topic thread, but we need 13 points at Worlds to have 3 Ladies next season. I'm not sure the Selection Committe is aware of that from recent events.