Championship Ladies SP

**Layfan** · 01-22-2010, 02:21 AM

Originally Posted by Nadine

Okay, looks like it's between the Top 4:

Mirai & Sasha virtually tied for 1st place after the short.

And Rachael only a few points behind, easy to catch up & overtake as the FS is her specialty.

It's Ashley Wagner I worry about. She's like 7 pts. behind Rach? No too good, this is the thing I was worried about all year, she doesn't have the mindset to win it all. Bombs when the pressure is on (e.g. last year at Nationals bombed the SP, but pulled up in the FS to place 4th, then bombed at Jr. Worlds, which she should have won). These important competitions tell the true story. I don't want anybody on the team that cannot bring it when it counts (aka Alisssa Czisny, which is why I didn't want her on the team).

My predictions from last year still stand: Rach & Sasha.

BUT, Mirai has surprised me a bit, she could win it all on Saturday again with all UR jumps. And then go to the Olympics & be dinged, and finished far behind Rachael.

ALSO, so can Sasha, as her jumps looked wobbly out there, and this was only the SP. I don't know, kinda have a bad feeling about this, judges won't be giving her any gifts (as evidenced here, especially with Mirai in the mix). I just don't know, fellow Sasha Fans. :(

That said, keep up the eternal hope, and may they ALL skate their very very best on Saturday!!!!!!!!!!

Re Ashley, I dunno. It's like I said: the fact that she didn't give up and attacked the rest of her program showed her mental toughness has improved. It's just that with two spots there's no room for error ... but that will be true for the top three in the FS. It ain't over til it's over.
Mirai didn't surprise me. She's been skating her SP well all season. She lived up to my expectations. Rachael surprised me. I thought her SP was the best it's been all season.

**cornell08** · 01-22-2010, 02:23 AM

Originally Posted by R.D.

Nagasu, Cohen and Flatt in a virtual tie at the top. Wagner about 7 pts behind. I dunno...can Wagner catch them up to snag a spot on the Oly team?

Does everyone agree that the race for the two spots has been reduced to these Four, and the rest of the competitors are just fighting for 3rd place at this point?

Yes. If there's going to be a dark horse at this point, I'd say its Gao. Her long program is money.

Poor Caroline....my heart ached for her and yet, it had to happen.

**formersk8ter** · 01-22-2010, 02:23 AM

Originally Posted by R.D.

Does everyone agree that the race for the two spots has been reduced to these Four, and the rest of the competitors are just fighting for 3rd place at this point?

I absolutely agree with you.

**bigsisjiejie** · 01-22-2010, 02:24 AM

Originally Posted by R.D.

Nagasu, Cohen and Flatt in a virtual tie at the top. Wagner about 7 pts behind. I dunno...can Wagner catch them up to snag a spot on the Oly team?

Does everyone agree that the race for the two spots has been reduced to these Four, and the rest of the competitors are just fighting for 3rd place at this point?

I think so--it's unlikely all 4 of the top skaters will have meltdowns big enough to allow another skater or two to pass them by. But 4CC and Jr. Worlds (for the age eligible) are definitely still in play.

Two ladies I missed and would have loved to have seen: Meissner and Maxwell. I think a healthy Kimmie might have pleasantly surprised us, and Angela ended up #8 last year, which ain't too shabby.

Edit: Add a 3rd skater to my Missing in Action list: Kristine Musademba.

**Layfan** · 01-22-2010, 02:25 AM

Originally Posted by R.D.

Nagasu, Cohen and Flatt in a virtual tie at the top. Wagner about 7 pts behind. I dunno...can Wagner catch them up to snag a spot on the Oly team?

Does everyone agree that the race for the two spots has been reduced to these Four, and the rest of the competitors are just fighting for 3rd place at this point?

Yes, it's hard not to see it any other way. Oh, Alissa....
I think Wagner is still in the running but she's a bit at the mercy of what the others do.

**HCOSurfer** · 01-22-2010, 02:30 AM

Here's a good question, can we see anybody breaking the 200 point barrier tomorrow?

**Phoenix347** · 01-22-2010, 02:30 AM

That was very interesting... the free skate is going to be real interesting. I think Ashley went for it a bit too much... she even admit it to Joyce. Joyce actually gave her most restrained performance this time... I give her 55.34 (Joyce, that is.) Ashley is not behind enough to be out of the running and we know she's a better LP skater.

Wonder if Mirai is going to be like at SC. Great SP but poor FS, It would be nice to see her keep it together but she is a precocious teenager.

Cohen really fought to keep it together in the SP and did a very commendable program, especially considering long layoff but the FS is the real test. If she can stay on her feet, she'll be on the team to NBC's delight.

Flatt is going to be solid. I just have a feeling. She will be on the team I feel. Such a consistent competitor.

Ah, we have the little Gao in fifth place. Too far behind but she's definitely the future. I wonder how soon she can upgrade her 3/3 and she still does need to work on her presentation a bit.

Dobbs... what a surprise. A pairs skater.

Alissa... oh man... you really dug a big hole for yourself... forget about making the team but show us a great skate in the FS, okay?

**GiuliaPlum** · 01-22-2010, 02:30 AM

Originally Posted by Layfan

I think Wagner is still in the running but she's a bit at the mercy of what the others do.

I'm feeling good for Saturday..now she's so motivated to fight...she needs to rest her mind after that crazy wait, poor Ash! I've faith.

**Nadine** · 01-22-2010, 02:36 AM

11:30PM here in Seattle, Washington, and I am reflecting on the competition. Overall I have a sour taste in my mouth, wasn't a good competition, not really. Now the Men at Euros, that's a competition!

I'm glad now that I didn't reserve seats on Alaska Airlines to Spokane on Saturday (will save that $700+ for something far more gratifying).

I really don't care who wins on Saturday, just don't let it be another mediocre competition.

The only real highlight for me was when Rachael Flatt set the bar so high at the very beginning ~ only woman to do a 3/3 combo. ~ and she did have spark! Reminiscent of a 1940's Flapper Girl; it's just her poor spins & spirals lose points all the time & rightfully so. Still, if she skates like she did at SA, she'll easily be on the team. She's the only one out of the Top 4 with the mental toughness of Michelle Kwan & whom doesn't usually UR her jumps.

The other spot, meh, I have a bad feeling for Sasha, unfortunately. It will most likely go to Mirai Nagasu (Ashley's way too far behind).

That's how I call it. Goodnight everyone!

ps: I do have a temper & it showed earlier this evening, but as I've said numerous times before in real life I have the option to ignore, not here. Thus, my temper got the better of me, no PC excuse. And I still stand by ALL my comments.

**FlattFan** · 01-22-2010, 02:36 AM

Originally Posted by Phoenix347

The tech caller must have let her slide on the 3T... 69+ good job Flatt..

And go Alissa!!!!!!!!!!!!

No way! I saw that 3F+3T in slow mo. It was absolutely fully rotated.

**R.D.** · 01-22-2010, 02:39 AM

Originally Posted by Layfan

I think Wagner is still in the running but she's a bit at the mercy of what the others do.

Agreed. She has to nail it AND depend on mistakes from at least two of the others. As for the top three, well, they control their own fate. Nail the FS and you're on the team. I do think Rachel is in the best position now.

**Mrs. P** · 01-22-2010, 02:40 AM

I think we're in for a real treat/fight on Saturday.
I don't agree with some of the folks on here that Ashley is out of it. You can sense that she's already moved on and ready to mentally prepare herself for the LP.
And a virtual tie at the top with Sasha, Mirai and Rachel. I think people really think Mirai will screw up in the LP with the downgrades, but I have this feeling that she might surprise everyone. She was fierce! And I think that will help her.

Gao is unlikely going to get on the Olympic team, I think, but she could be a potential contender for bronze if we see some meltdowns at the top. I'm also impressed with Dobbs' performance, looks like that despite her content not being as difficult, her GOE really helped her here. Don't know what her LP is like, so will refrain from speculating about it.