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Thread: The USA Needs 13 Points in 3 Disciplines

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    Custom Title Joesitz's Avatar
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    The USA Needs 13 Points in 3 Disciplines

    The events have to be breathtaking:

    The Men. I am hoping for a 6+7

    The Ladies. I am hoping for a 5+ 8 but I'll settle for a 6+7

    The Pairs. I am hoping for a 6+7 maybe even better.

    The Ice Dance. Should not be a problem.

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    "Hold an edge and look sexy!" museksk8r's Avatar
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    I think Pairs is the least likely discipline to arrive at 13. I totally expect the usual 2 spots. Best case scenario I foresee is 8 + 9.

    I think Mirai and Rachael, Jeremy and Adam, and D/W and S/B should be able to arrive at 13 together.

    I think Jeremy needs to take a page out of Lysacek's handbook and skate a more conservative program without the quad. If he plays it safe and skates both programs clean, he could potentially win the World title.

    If I were him, I would make this my layout for the LP:

    3Lutz
    3flip
    3Axel
    2Axel
    x3Axel+2toe
    x3Lutz+3toe+2loop
    x3loop
    x3Salchow+2toe
    Last edited by museksk8r; 03-10-2010 at 09:38 AM.

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    Ladies: Quite plausible. Japan is guaranteed three, unless there's an injury to Ando/Asada AND Suzuki bombs. I cannot think of a configuration of the top ten that prevents it from happening, truth be told. I think Canada needs to be more concerned about keeping two spots, frankly here.

    Men: No idea. I think it'll be up to Abbott, though. Rippon and Bradley are both potential top ten candidates, but just barely, so Abbott needs to podium. Fingers crossed.

    Pairs: Doubtful, if everyone but S/Z and V/M shows up.

    Ice Dance: Yeah, no problem. Who's gonna be the third US team? Is it NavBom or Chock/Zurlein?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Joesitz View Post
    The events have to be breathtaking:

    The Men. I am hoping for a 6+7

    The Ladies. I am hoping for a 5+ 8 but I'll settle for a 6+7

    The Pairs. I am hoping for a 6+7 maybe even better.

    The Ice Dance. Should not be a problem.
    Why are you hoping for a 5+8 when the US ladies just were 4+7 at the Olympics? Mirai could be 4th again and Rachael 5th. The European ladies aren't dependable, and apart from a very on Lepisto or Kostner (who might not even be there), Mirai and Rachael are stronger than all of them, even when they are on. I really don't see Kiira, Elene, Alena, or Ksenia beating Mirai and Rachael. Unless Miki goes all out and does the 3-3 I tend to think the US ladies can beat her too, and Akiko will likely be farther down in the SP and then won't get high enough PCS to surpass them in the FS. If they both get dinged for URs it will be a different story but unless Miki, Carolina, or Laura have the SOHL, Mirai and Rachael will likely be 4th and 5th, in whatever order.

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    she takes the audience on her journey of emotions Layfan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by silverlake22 View Post
    Why are you hoping for a 5+8 when the US ladies just were 4+7 at the Olympics? Mirai could be 4th again and Rachael 5th. The European ladies aren't dependable, and apart from a very on Lepisto or Kostner (who might not even be there), Mirai and Rachael are stronger than all of them, even when they are on. I really don't see Kiira, Elene, Alena, or Ksenia beating Mirai and Rachael. Unless Miki goes all out and does the 3-3 I tend to think the US ladies can beat her too, and Akiko will likely be farther down in the SP and then won't get high enough PCS to surpass them in the FS. If they both get dinged for URs it will be a different story but unless Miki, Carolina, or Laura have the SOHL, Mirai and Rachael will likely be 4th and 5th, in whatever order.
    I agree and I thought even before the Olympics that the US ladies were stronger competitors than the Euro girls, although Lepisto and others are formidable competition when they hit everything.
    I think 4-5 is very possible and 13 points definitely within grasp. I say all Mirai and Rachael have to do is be clean to get the three spots back. We'll just have to see if they can be as good as they have been in their third major competition in a row. But they are not to be underestimated.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Layfan View Post
    I agree and I thought even before the Olympics that the US ladies were stronger competitors than the Euro girls, although Lepisto and others are formidable competition when they hit everything.
    I think 4-5 is very possible and 13 points definitely within grasp. I say all Mirai and Rachael have to do is be clean to get the three spots back. We'll just have to see if they can be as good as they have been in their third major competition in a row. But they are not to be underestimated.
    I tend to think Mirai and Rachael won't let us down, and I also wouldn't be surprised if some of the medal favorites faltered. The Olympics was an awesome event for the ladies in that so many people gave great performances. Worlds could be the same thing or more of a scenario like 2008 where no one was spectacular. Most likely Mirai won't have to skate last in the LP again at Worlds so that will probably be a nice treat for her, but if by some odd chance she does get pimp spot for the 3rd time in a row, I think she can handle it.

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    Dedicated follower of the black line Wicked's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ImaginaryPogue View Post
    Who's gonna be the third US team? Is it NavBom or Chock/Zurlein?
    NavBom. I think a clean, conservative Jeremy is on the podium, increasing the likelihood of the men getting to 13.

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    joesitz-
    i somewhat agree with you

    however i think girls should go a 4-7 like at olympics or 5 or 8. but will settle for 6 &7
    men might be a problem, i am hoping for a 6 & 7 --jeremy might medal but holding out top 6, hoping either adam or ryan can get to 7th
    pairs will get two- lucky if get 3 with a 6 & 7 (i am hoping)
    dance-more than likely get 3 ,but can see a 3& 10 or 2 & 11 or see a 3 & 12.

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    Beliver in Sasha's Perfect Program Tinymavy15's Avatar
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    Actually the dance is not THAT tied up with Tanith and Ben not going. If Davis and White get another Silver as we expect, Samuelson and Bates have to place no lower than 11th. I expect them to be around 8th. Dance is not that surprsing, but they have had weird falls in the past.

    I'm not really worried about the ladies at all. Amazing that with only two young girls we have a great chance of getting three spots when last year we failed to do so with three condendors at worlds in our home country. Both Mirai and Racheal have been skating right on the whole second half of the season and both have something to prove from the Olympics, Mirai that she has arrived for good, Racheal to get some vengence for those downgrades.

    The pairs....sorry. Not going to happen. Love them both though.

    The Men are iffy. Jeremey could either win or be down in 14th.

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    she takes the audience on her journey of emotions Layfan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by silverlake22 View Post
    I tend to think Mirai and Rachael won't let us down, and I also wouldn't be surprised if some of the medal favorites faltered. The Olympics was an awesome event for the ladies in that so many people gave great performances. Worlds could be the same thing or more of a scenario like 2008 where no one was spectacular. Most likely Mirai won't have to skate last in the LP again at Worlds so that will probably be a nice treat for her, but if by some odd chance she does get pimp spot for the 3rd time in a row, I think she can handle it.
    She seems to do well in the pimp spot (is that really what it's called? what a bad name). She gets worse scores when she skates earlier, like the judges just can't believe she might be better than the other skaters coming up. I know COP isn't supposed to "save scores" but somehow I think it still happens on PCS.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Layfan View Post
    She seems to do well in the pimp spot (is that really what it's called? what a bad name). She gets worse scores when she skates earlier, like the judges just can't believe she might be better than the other skaters coming up. I know COP isn't supposed to "save scores" but somehow I think it still happens on PCS.
    No you are right though. I found it almost funny that in the SP Leonova and Flatt got higher PCS scores than Mirai. I mean if they had been the same, I could maybe understand it, but if any one of those three girls deserves higher PCS than the others, it's Mirai. Where she did so well at the Olympics though might it mean that Mirai will have a later draw for the SP and will skate in one of the final two groups instead of one of the earlier groups?

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    she takes the audience on her journey of emotions Layfan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by silverlake22 View Post
    No you are right though. I found it almost funny that in the SP Leonova and Flatt got higher PCS scores than Mirai. I mean if they had been the same, I could maybe understand it, but if any one of those three girls deserves higher PCS than the others, it's Mirai. Where she did so well at the Olympics though might it mean that Mirai will have a later draw for the SP and will skate in one of the final two groups instead of one of the earlier groups?

    Well, I do have to say that Rachael has a very punchy SP and she performed the hell out of it at the Olympics. Even though I don't really like Rachael's skating, my immediate reaction after she performed her SP was "wow, Rachael had the most free performance of the night!"
    My immediate reaction to Mirai was "well, that was very very good for her first major int'l competition but she was reserved and didn't perform it quite like at nationals." I think she got slightly flustered when she didn't pull off the 3-3 and her performance suffered just a little - but not the rest of her elements, so kudos!!

    Objectively speaking, Rachael did interpret and perform her choreography better than Mirai during the SP. She also beat Mirai in skating skills. Probably other posters are better qualified than me to comment on that one. I dunno, you often post about edging and basic skating, maybe you can tell me whether you agree with the judges. I understand that Mirai skates way faster than Rachael. But maybe Rachael had more multi-directional skating and the like?

    The problem is PCS doesn't seem to take into account positions, lines and grace, which is where Mirai is excellent and Rachael .... isn't. I suppose those go into the GOEs of the spins and spirals and Rachael does get dinged for that ... Something I didn't really quite get about COP until recently ... Despite the lack of 3-3-, Mirai beat Rachael in TES in the SP!! So Rachael's flaws seem to hurt her technical score more than her PCS score. Totally bizarre, but I sort of "get it" just from an intellectual perspective.

    Even so, I think reputation still counts and Mirai might have gotten higher PCS if she wasn't so new on the scene, reserved or not. It'll be so interesting to watch those two at worlds.
    Last edited by Layfan; 03-10-2010 at 09:17 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tinymavy15 View Post
    Actually the dance is not THAT tied up with Tanith and Ben not going. If Davis and White get another Silver as we expect, Samuelson and Bates have to place no lower than 11th. I expect them to be around 8th. Dance is not that surprsing, but they have had weird falls in the past.

    I'm not really worried about the ladies at all. Amazing that with only two young girls we have a great chance of getting three spots when last year we failed to do so with three condendors at worlds in our home country. Both Mirai and Racheal have been skating right on the whole second half of the season and both have something to prove from the Olympics, Mirai that she has arrived for good, Racheal to get some vengence for those downgrades.

    The pairs....sorry. Not going to happen. Love them both though.

    The Men are iffy. Jeremey could either win or be down in 14th.
    We didn't have three ladies last year in LA- we only had two: Rachael and Alissa. The last time we had three was in 2008, when Ashely, Bebe, and Kimmie competed.

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    Quote Originally Posted by carriecmu0503 View Post
    We didn't have three ladies last year in LA- we only had two: Rachael and Alissa. The last time we had three was in 2008, when Ashely, Bebe, and Kimmie competed.
    Yeah and that was when we lost our 3 spots. Kimmie and Bebe were imploding that year but because Mirai, Rachael, and Caroline were all too young to go to Worlds, they got to go and none of them did well, the little youngsters I have no doubt would have done better. I'm really glad that our top two ladies now are more reliable competitors than Alissa, Bebe, and Kimmie (post 2006 worlds) - they broke my heart too many times when they kept failing to deliver!

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    Oh, I'm very anxious about the men. When I heard that neither Evan nor Johnny was going to Worlds, I wondered whether we might be so unlucky as to net an Olympic Gold Medal and still end up with just two places for next year. I gather Plushenko is attending Worlds (otherwise known as his coronation), and so are the Japanese men? There's not much room at the top, I fear.

    On the other hand, I'm much more sanguine about the Ladies' chances. Mirai seems to be on fire this year, and Rachael remains steady and accomplished. Ice dance will be chancy without Tanith and Ben (can't someone beg them to stay for the good of their country?). Pairs I have no expectations for, though Evora and Ladwig especially are wonderful to watch.

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