Podium Predictions

[beep_beep]

I predict that, regardless of who will end up on the podium, there will be whining.

[aurora100]

If flatt medals I'll stop watching womens skating

Oh dear, Flatt is not that bad. She could podium with two good performances, or near perfect programs, but she will need two programs. She has the strongest mental game in the Ladies.

[DesertRoad]

Ice dancing is the only discipline I can hazard an educated guess, because the judges seem to have made their minds up long before the competition. So:

Gold: Davis/White
Silver: Domnina Shabalin (Boo! Boooooo!)
Bronze: Virtue/Moir

I'm a lot iffier on pairs, but based on this season so far and the mood of the judges:

Pairs:

Gold: Shen/Zhao
Silver: Kavaguti/Smirnov
Bronze: Savchenko/Szolkowy

The only thing I know in men's is that Plushenko will win. So:

Gold: Plushenko
Silver: ?????
Bronze: ?????

And ladies, is, by far, the most unpredictable. We've had a surprise winner the last 3 times, and it's only going to be more chaotic this time. The two frontrunners, Yu Na and Mao, are having and will have some of the most intense media scrutiny ever trained on them. They are under an unimaginable amount of pressure. It will get to them. So:

Gold: ?????
Silver: ?????
Bronze: ?????

[mel66]

For ladies..
one thing for sure is that Yuna Kim will medal. She might not win the gold (although I believe she is the most favorite) but will still medal even if she makes some mistakes. But as for other ladies..I'm not sure. Mao, Joannie, and Miki..they are very likely to medal at this Olympics but if the mess something up? then it is possible for them to not medal.

[Eszterbeszti]

Well, for me ladies are the biggest question.
OK, the gold is for Kim, but who will earn the silver and the bronz. I think Kostner is good, but maybe she will be too nervous to earn the bronze, and I reallly hope that Asada will be able to fight for the podium. I don't think the american girl will get medal, the are good, but they need more time to practice maybe in Sochi, but I'd like to watch there Caroline. Joannie has a big chance to be on the podium: she'll skate at home. So I think:
1. Kim
2. Joannie
3. Asada

[Bennett]

You predict Rochette to be that low?

I don't want Rochette to be that low (7th). If she pulls out two clean programs, she'd get the Gold. If she only makes a couple of mistakes, she would medal.

At the same time, I predict a big bombing potential in Rochette. Unlike Yuna, Miki, and Mao, she's not very much used to pressures. She's already affected so much by the media. Yet, she will be under even stronger pressures at the Games. So I put her under these three ladies.

If she does okay, Rochette would comfortably outskate Suzuki, Rachael, and Leonova. But Suzuki and Rachael have been far more consistent than Rochette this season and are likely to be nearly clean whereas Rochette seems likely to show vulnerability. Their base values are not that different. So I put them above her. She could be far above Leonova if she pulls it together. But if she bombs, a strong jumper like Leonova can go above her.

But if she gets as boosted PCS as that at SC with any mistake-filled program (don't necessarily think it undeserving; her programs and presentation are fab), she would perhaps go ahead of Leonova and would place 6th instead of 7th. However, I cannot see a clean Rachael and a clean Akiko not going above a bombed Rochette.

I hope that her success at Nationals can give her confidence. But I still see her in the process of getting out of the slump. Not having succeeded at an international comp this season would make her vulnerable to bombing.

[museksk8r]

I predict it's the Olympics and anything can happen, and like beep_beep said, there will for sure be a lot of whining going on.

[R.D.]

Oh dear, Flatt is not that bad. She could podium with two good performances, or near perfect programs, but she will need two programs. She has the strongest mental game in the Ladies.

I don't feel the same way about Flatt but I can understand why some do. After all, I feel the exact same way about another skater.

[i love to skate]

I don't want Rochette to be that low (7th). If she pulls out two clean programs, she'd get the Gold. If she only makes a couple of mistakes, she would medal.

At the same time, I predict a big bombing potential in Rochette. Unlike Yuna, Miki, and Mao, she's not very much used to pressures. She's already affected so much by the media. Yet, she will be under even stronger pressures at the Games. So I put her under these three ladies.

If she does okay, Rochette would comfortably outskate Suzuki, Rachael, and Leonova. But Suzuki and Rachael have been far more consistent than Rochette this season and are likely to be nearly clean whereas Rochette seems likely to show vulnerability. Their base values are not that different. So I put them above her. She could be far above Leonova if she pulls it together. But if she bombs, a strong jumper like Leonova can go above her.

But if she gets as boosted PCS as that at SC with any mistake-filled program (don't necessarily think it undeserving; her programs and presentation are fab), she would perhaps go ahead of Leonova and would place 6th instead of 7th. However, I cannot see a clean Rachael and a clean Akiko not going above a bombed Rochette.

I hope that her success at Nationals can give her confidence. But I still see her in the process of getting out of the slump. Not having succeeded at an international comp this season would make her vulnerable to bombing.

All of the other ladies had dismal Grand Prix showings as well and have been just as inconsistent as Joannie. Joannie is going into the Olympics with a clean 7 triple performance under her belt - which is more than can be said for some of her competitors.

[Joesitz]

I predict that, regardless of who will end up on the podium, there will be whining.

Exactly. A few will claim to have seen URs on their Television which the judges and Tech Panel missed.

[R.D.]

For those iPhone users out there, the official NBCOlympics app is now out. It's cool...you can choose favorite sports and athletes to follow. I chose Lindsey Vonn, Figure Skating, Rachel Flatt and Mirai Nagasu

[bekalc]

Originally Posted by aurora100
Oh dear, Flatt is not that bad. She could podium with two good performances, or near perfect programs, but she will need two programs. She has the strongest mental game in the Ladies.

Huh? Rachael has never had to deal with the kind of pressure Kim, Asada, Ando, Rochette or Kostner have had to deal with. She wasn't in the final group at worlds last year, and she's never even made the GPF. And not making the GPF this season was due to her own poor showing at Cup of China. Even at worlds while she had a good skate she wasn't completely clean in the short or the long program, and didn't deliver one 3/3.

We have no idea how Rachael would react if she suddenly found herself in the final group at the Olympics, in the hunt for the medal. Yes she could skate great, but she could also deliver a long program like she did at Four Continents last year or Cup of China this year. She's never found herself in that kind of experience before.

Kim/Asada/Ando were all extremely good jumpers when they were young and were consistent. But they have all had to face a huge amount of expectations and pressure from their media, since they were a young age. Kim/Asada didn't even get to be underdogs as Seniors. Not even for one year. Considering the pressure and expectations those girls have had on their shoulders for so long, I think its safe to say that all of them have a pretty great mental games. And until Rachael is placed in their situation and skates well enough to win world medals/world championships. Heck Ando did a short with a 3/3 and a 7 triple program with a 3/3 to win her world title. Until Rachael has managed that one, lets not say she has a stronger mental game than the others. I do think Rachael is a very good competitor and all of that but it is ridiculously unfair to compare her to the other girls when the other girls have way more pressure on themselves.

[R.D.]

This talk is a bit pointless IMO

Rachel can CLEARLY handle pressure. We've seen it time and time again where she rises to the occasion.

The question then becomes, will she be put under Olympic-level pressure? That can break just about anyone it seems. The key for Flatt is to put herself within striking range of a medal at least. The ones leading, near the top, and hometown faves are usually the ones that feel it the most.

Nagasu apparently does not being counted out, either. We shall see

[FlattFan]

Huh? Rachael has never had to deal with the kind of pressure Kim, Asada, Ando, Rochette or Kostner have had to deal with. She wasn't in the final group at worlds last year, and she's never even made the GPF. And not making the GPF this season was due to her own poor showing at Cup of China. Even at worlds while she had a good skate she wasn't completely clean in the short or the long program, and didn't deliver one 3/3.

What kind of pressure Rochette or Kostner dealt with that Rachael did not?
Kim, Asada, and Ando 2006 had the most pressure.
Ando 2010 has about the same pressure as Flatt.

We have no idea how Rachael would react if she suddenly found herself in the final group at the Olympics, in the hunt for the medal. Yes she could skate great, but she could also deliver a long program like she did at Four Continents last year or Cup of China this year. She's never found herself in that kind of experience before.

3 times at nationals, the Junior World Championship (Miki, Mao, Kim were Junior Champs once, and it took them a few years to be senior champ)
But it could be true that when she's suddenly in the hunt, she could potentially repeat CoC.

Kim/Asada didn't even get to be underdogs as Seniors. Not even for one year. Considering the pressure and expectations those girls have had on their shoulders for so long, I think its safe to say that all of them have a pretty great mental games.

They were lucky because all the top dogs were gone by the time they competed at senior level. Miki were pretty good, did triple lutz triple loop, quad Sal, and at the time, they were very forgiving for UR jumps and yet, she couldn't beat aging Kwan, couldn't beat Slutskaya, Shizuka, Sasha, etc...
I'd say had they competed in 2002 or something, there would be absolutely no pressure and expectations.

And until Rachael is placed in their situation and skates well enough to win world medals/world championships. Heck Ando did a short with a 3/3 and a 7 triple program with a 3/3 to win her world title. Until Rachael has managed that one, lets not say she has a stronger mental game than the others. I do think Rachael is a very good competitor and all of that but it is ridiculously unfair to compare her to the other girls when the other girls have way more pressure on themselves.

I agree with this point. She's very stable, but that's not to say she has any less pressure coming from her own federation when time after time, put prettier but technically challenged girls in front of her.
Rachael knew she had to hit everything in order for her own federation to back her, if that's not pressure cooking, what is?

[Bennett]

Men
1. Plushy
2. Evan/Nobu/Abott/Joubert/Dai
3. Evan/Nobu/Abott/Joubert/Dai/Chan/Kozu/Johnny
4. Evan/Nobu/Abott/Joubert/Dai/Chan/Kozu/Johnny/Lambiel

Too many good skaters. But too many injuries, too.