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Thread: Podium Predictions

  1. #76
    Custom Title bekalc's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by FlattFan View Post
    But she did not have triple triple combo in either Short or Long program at Worlds. It was her first world, the PCS was crap. This time around, she's coming into the Olympics as the US champion. Her PCS will improve this year.
    I believe if she hit them both like she's been doing lately, the point difference is minimal.
    I think a repeat of Nationals and she could be on the podium.
    I was just pointing out that Lepisto, the Euro girls aren't likely to beat Flatt, like miki88 suggested.


    Wasn't her SP at Russia 50 or 51? A subpar SP like in Paris was 57 or 58, but that includes everything, including a very high PCS. Will she? Her LP at last year Worlds was pretty good, only one big mistake and she got 122. At 4CC, no big mistake, and she got 126. Flatt, if clean, will not be far behind and possibly beat Mao.
    Between the two, who's likely to bomb? Just answer that.
    Regarding Kostner, her potential is higher than Flatt. But we're talking about chance. Her chance is a lot lower. Stop conflating two very different ideas.
    Rachael does not skate with the same speed or power that Kim, Asada, Rochette, Kostner, and Ando have. They all have great flow accross the ice. Her PCS are going up but I have a hard time thinking they will be as high as the people I mentioned. Unless there's some serious politiking going on. Also in terms of quality, her jumps aren't going to get that high of GOE, in comparision to the GOE those five I mentioned are going to get on their great jumps.

    As for who can beat Flatt if clean besides some of the people mentioned. I think that if lets say several of the Japanese girls could, and Suzuki skated right after Flatt, Suzuki could. Yes Flatt may have a higher TES base, but Suzuki is a better performer who could bring the house down. It could be Nagasu vs Flatt all over again, except this time Suzuki actually rotates her jumps. If we are talking about splat fest anyways, the judges might just decide to reward the reigning GPF bronze medalist and the reigning Four Continents silver medalist. Then there's Lepisto, if she had the skate of her life, and started landing her stuff, she'd beat Rachael too because she gets way higher PCS do to quality of her skating. There is also Leonova who could perhaps get higher scores. Her PCS went up at GPF.

    But you mention the way they've been skating. The way Yu-na has been skating has still lead to her getting higher scores than Rachael has gotten this season. And I'd hardly call Rachael's skate a Cup of China as an example of great skating herself.

    Rachael's PCS have gone up, but they aren't going to go up that much further unless she makes some changes to her skating.
    Last edited by bekalc; 02-06-2010 at 04:00 PM.

  2. #77
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    What Flatt DOES have over many of the other top competitors, though, is mental toughness- and that can be invaluable in an Olympic year.

    But could she possibly take the Meissner 2006 Expressway is the real question- not place at Olympics but pull a shocker at Worlds with most of the top competitors gone...hmm.

  3. #78
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    Quote Originally Posted by R.D. View Post
    What Flatt DOES have over many of the other top competitors, though, is mental toughness- and that can be invaluable in an Olympic year.

    But could she possibly take the Meissner 2006 Expressway is the real question- not place at Olympics but pull a shocker at Worlds with most of the top competitors gone...hmm.
    As for mental toughness, it's kinda depends on the situation, because Flatt has never had that much pressure on her shoulders as the other top contenders. No one really expects her to medal not even the US press. In a way, that is her greatest advantage. Very little pressure. How far will that take her on Olympic night? We'll have to see. But to me her making the podium is still a bit of a stretch for now.

  4. #79
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    Suzuki pcs is about 2-3 points lower
    Suzuki tes is also lower.
    This is not the Case where the whole is larger than the sum of it's parts. This is the whole is exactly the sum of its part.
    They are not going to magically give it to Suzuki.
    Btw, since when is performance = pcs?

    Lepisto pcs is about 3 points higher
    Rachael tes is a lot higher than lepisto even with all of her triples. How can a clean lepisto win over a clean flatt?

  5. #80
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    Quote Originally Posted by miki88 View Post
    As for mental toughness, it's kinda depends on the situation, because Flatt has never had that much pressure on her shoulders as the other top contenders. No one really expects her to medal not even the US press. In a way, that is her greatest advantage. Very little pressure. How far will that take her on Olympic night? We'll have to see. But to me her making the podium is still a bit of a stretch for now.
    That's a good point.

  6. #81
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    I can imagine Suzuki having a skate of her life more readily than Flatt. And it's worth mentioning that Suzuki and Flatt have faced off once this season, and Suzuki won. Flatt's steadiness will help her performances, no doubt.

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    I think it's also worth mentioning, Mao, like Miki, is also a big events person. She always seemed to get higher scores at major events season than at lesser GP events. Even at worlds, where she was fourth, she got a pretty good score. So I think Mao is less likely to bomb than some people have thought.

  8. #83
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    Quote Originally Posted by ImaginaryPogue View Post
    I can imagine Suzuki having a skate of her life more readily than Flatt. And it's worth mentioning that Suzuki and Flatt have faced off once this season, and Suzuki won. Flatt's steadiness will help her performances, no doubt.
    Akikio and Joannie have faced off twice this season and Akiko outskated Joannie both times. Does that give Akiko an advantage over Joannie in Vancouver?

  9. #84
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    Quote Originally Posted by miki88 View Post
    As for mental toughness, it's kinda depends on the situation, because Flatt has never had that much pressure on her shoulders as the other top contenders. No one really expects her to medal not even the US press. In a way, that is her greatest advantage. Very little pressure. How far will that take her on Olympic night? We'll have to see. But to me her making the podium is still a bit of a stretch for now.
    She has little pressure but I suspect that if she were to find herself in the final group at the Olympics, the pressure would come on her very own. The reason I say this is because a World/Olympic medal is something you've been working for, for your entire career. And to find yourself in that position for the first time is really daunting. This is where Kim, Asada, Ando, Rochette, and Kostner have a big advantage because they've dealt with that kind of pressure before and they know what to expect or have a much better idea of what to expect in that situation. I think Rachael would get the handle on it quickly because she's a good competitor, but I'm not 100% that she'd hit it out of the park completely the first time she was in that situation. Thats why I find it so unfair for people to say Rachael is this better mental competitor than Kim, Asada, Ando etc. Because all of those girls were very good jumping beans themselves, when they were able to just go out there and skate without their countries expecting huge things out of them.. Kim was consistently landing 6/7 triple programs her last Junior year. Ando was a good jumping bean herself. And who could forget Mao as a Junior or at the GPF debut. Look at how carefree Mao was in 2006, incomparision to now. Its a completely different scenario when your expected to be the best in the world and deliver. And your country expects that from you too. Rachael just doesn't have that kind of pressure or expectations. I could point out Michelle Kwan in 1997 for another example of how difficult it is when your on top and expected to deliver.

    I don't see Mao as necessarily a big show skater myself. Her highest score total ever came at a GP event. And i don't think her 2008 world championship win was her best skate ever, nor was her world championships last year. A lot of time scores are inflated at worlds.
    Last edited by bekalc; 02-06-2010 at 05:33 PM.

  10. #85
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    Quote Originally Posted by bekalc View Post
    She has little pressure but I suspect that if she were to find herself in the final group at the Olympics, the pressure would come on her very own. The reason I say this is because a World/Olympic medal is something you've been working for, for your entire career. And to find yourself in that position for the first time is really daunting. This is where Kim, Asada, Ando, Rochette, and Kostner have a big advantage because they've dealt with that kind of pressure before and they know what to expect or have a much better idea of what to expect in that situation. I think Rachael would get the handle on it quickly because she's a good competitor, but I'm not 100% that she'd hit it out of the park completely the first time she was in that situation. Thats why I find it so unfair for people to say Rachael is this better mental competitor than Kim, Asada, Ando etc. Because all of those girls were very good jumping beans themselves, when they were able to just go out there and skate without their countries expecting huge things out of them.. Kim was consistently landing 6/7 triple programs her last Junior year. Ando was a good jumping bean herself. And who could forget Mao as a Junior or at the GPF debut. Look at how carefree Mao was in 2006, incomparision to now. Its a completely different scenario when your expected to be the best in the world and deliver. And your country expects that from you too. Rachael just doesn't have that kind of pressure or expectations. I could point out Michelle Kwan in 1997 for another example of how difficult it is when your on top and expected to deliver.

    I don't see Mao as necessarily a big show skater myself. Her highest score total ever came at a GP event. And i don't think her 2008 world championship win was her best skate ever, nor was her world championships last year. A lot of time scores are inflated at worlds.

    True, they weren't her best skates. I guess I just don't think Mao will bomb both programs at the Olympics. At 4CC, we have seen that she didn't let the disappointing short affect her nerves in the LP. So I think this is a good sign that some of her competitive nerve has come back, and I just think she will end on a good note. She may not win but I think she will deliver good performances.

  11. #86
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    Quote Originally Posted by janetfan View Post
    Akikio and Joannie have faced off twice this season and Akiko outskated Joannie both times. Does that give Akiko an advantage over Joannie in Vancouver?
    By twice, I'm sure you meant three times. And of course Joannie only beat Suzuki once. And no, it doesn't mean that. It's simply one fact among many that leads me to a conclusion. Flattfan is quite right to suggest that by virtue of a triple triple and level fours on her spins and spirals, Flatt has an advantage over Suzuki, even if I think a 2-3 point difference in PCS isn't particularly noteworthy.

  12. #87
    Custom Title bekalc's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by miki88 View Post
    True, they weren't her best skates. I guess I just don't think Mao will bomb both programs at the Olympics. At 4CC, we have seen that she didn't let the disappointing short affect her nerves in the LP. So I think this is a good sign that some of her competitive nerve has come back, and I just think she will end on a good note. She may not win but I think she will deliver good performances.
    But Mao wasn't 18 points back after the short program at 4CC. IF she were to find herself 18 points behind Yu-na after the short and even 10 points behind Miki, Mao just might have a different reaction. See the thing is I'm not even sure I would consider Mao messing up her triple axels as bombing. Because Mao has never been all that consistent with her 3 axels in competition. If she were to hit her 3axels at the Olympics, and I have a feeling she just might, although I also think they may be lenient on downgrades. Then, I'll consider Miss Mao to be one of the greatest big competition skaters. But if she doesn't hit these things, I'm hardly going to consider it this big surprise, because throughout her career she's been 50/50 at best with her 3axels in competition. So I would consider it instead foolishness on the part of team Asada to put their eggs in a basket of a jump that she's not consistent with. After all the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over again and expecting different results. I mean would it be bombing if Yu-na missed her 3loop a jump she's not consistent with. Or Ando getting her 3lutz/3loop downgraded. Nope.
    Last edited by bekalc; 02-06-2010 at 07:17 PM.

  13. #88
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    Quote Originally Posted by ImaginaryPogue View Post
    even if I think a 2-3 point difference in PCS isn't particularly noteworthy.
    It's not noteworthy by itself, but very much so in the context I presented.
    Flatt has PCS advantage over Suzuki, regardless of the amount.
    Flatt TES is also stronger than Suzuki. So I was just wondering how some people think Suzuki can beat a clean Flatt? It's not like there's a third component decided by online posters and bekalc aproved = + 3 GOE.

    I think if Flatt delivered, she can just sit back and watch the other headcases explode. There will be quite a few, especially if she put pressure on them by skating first of the final group.
    It's all about strategy and mind game on top of what you can actually do under pressure. If the other girls can't deliver when it counts then the nightmare is their own making and they get to live it for the rest of their life.

  14. #89
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    I'm not sure past scores have so much to do with an upcoming competition. All these Ladies save Mao have the same arsenal of tricks in their programs. Mao has a 3A, but like the Quad, it is not the only scoring element.

    There are always the possibilities of consistency, the dreaded pressure, and the skater's health to be considered on that day/night. And flukes can happen.

    It is quite possible that the set of judges chosen may score differently than a set of judges not chosen. I'm not talking collusion, or even favoritism. Just the human touch of a GoE button. Similarly, differnt Tech Panels do not see the same elements the same way for errors and a somewhat specious given Level.

    Regardless of our predictions which should be based on what we have seen of the skater in recent comps and even in galas, predictions are not easy if one is a serious sportsfan. We kind of know what they can do without risk, but will they? and what if they take a risk? We'll soon see.

    I happen to be looking for skaters - not winners, but those who make a statement for the future. Go Michal!

  15. #90
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    Quote Originally Posted by bekalc View Post
    But Mao wasn't 18 points back after the short program at 4CC. IF she were to find herself 18 points behind Yu-na after the short and even 10 points behind Miki, Mao just might have a different reaction. See the thing is I'm not even sure I would consider Mao messing up her triple axels as bombing. Because Mao has never been all that consistent with her 3 axels in competition. If she were to hit her 3axels at the Olympics, and I have a feeling she just might, although I also think they may be lenient on downgrades. Then, I'll consider Miss Mao to be one of the greatest big competition skaters. But if she doesn't hit these things, I'm hardly going to consider it this big surprise, because throughout her career she's been 50/50 at best with her 3axels in competition. So I would consider it instead foolishness on the part of team Asada to put their eggs in a basket of a jump that she's not consistent with. After all the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over again and expecting different results. I mean would it be bombing if Yu-na missed her 3loop a jump she's not consistent with. Or Ando getting her 3lutz/3loop downgraded. Nope.
    Oh. I didn't mean bombing if Mao only messed up her 3 Axels. Flattfan was talking about her programs at GP events where she messed up her other elements as well and also fell. I think Mao will not repeat her disastrous performances at GP. She may get downgrade on her 3A though, since as you said, it was not unusual for her in the past.

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