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Thread: Podium Predictions

  1. #106
    Dreaming and dancing Bennett's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by aurora100 View Post
    Miki definitely doesn't have more artistry and presentation than Flatt. Miki's artistry has improved but she is still awkward. Her strength is her technical elements. I watched Flatt's programs from Nationals. I don't see why people are picking on her so much. I don't see her artistry any less than Kostner or even Rochette. Mao's programs this year doesn't add that much either. It's not like Cohen is going to the Olympics.
    Miki's artistry is growing on me this season. Her posture still bugs me (she used to have a good posture when she was younger. What happened to that? back pain??). But her SP is mature, expressive, and powerful. Very Morozovian program; very strong presentation that matches her style. Her LP gets boring towards the end. The music is too slow and too mellow for her. But I hope that she skates with greater speed at the Games.

    I really like some of Rachael's programs and her expressiveness. But in this season, I feel that her LP music does not fit her well and her team is not doing well hiding her weaknesses (e.g., why include spin positions that don't look pretty when they could have chosen something else?). Neither her posture nor her stretch is good. She is also a bit disadvantaged than other girls with longer, skinnier limbs. Yet, she could be still a likable performer like Emily. Rachael has her own beauty in her presentation and it would mature in a few years to go.

    That said, I find Rochette miles away in terms of artistry, so do I find Caro.

  2. #107
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    Quote Originally Posted by bekalc View Post
    The difference is that Miki is kind of like Irina in that while Miki is not that graceful (although she's more refined than Rachael). She is still a very powerful fast skater who gets great coverage accross the ice, and her jumps are huge with great flow. So Miki inspite of not being the most graceful skater has still some rather impressive live.
    Miki is only fast recently. She was rather slow. A lot of commentators commentated on her speed, which they said was rather slow across the ice, dating back to even her winning performance at world.
    Miki got a few years to improve and she just fixed all of her jumps & speed this year. Let's not call her the powerful fast skater for a girl who just got it together after so many years of improving herself.
    Rachael is only 17, got a full set of triples.
    Miki got a full set of triples at the age of 22. If you want to compare, Rachael is more impressive compare to Miki at 17.

  3. #108
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    Quote Originally Posted by FlattFan View Post
    Miki is only fast recently. She was rather slow. A lot of commentators commentated on her speed, which they said was rather slow across the ice, dating back to even her winning performance at world.
    Miki got a few years to improve and she just fixed all of her jumps & speed this year. Let's not call her the powerful fast skater for a girl who just got it together after so many years of improving herself.
    Rachael is only 17, got a full set of triples.
    Miki got a full set of triples at the age of 22. If you want to compare, Rachael is more impressive compare to Miki at 17.
    I think that Miki has been an incredible natural talent since her young ages. She has also been injured very often and has had psychological ups and downs. Without that outstanding talent and practices, she wouldn't have had this career.

  4. #109
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    Quote Originally Posted by FlattFan View Post
    Miki is only fast recently. She was rather slow. A lot of commentators commentated on her speed, which they said was rather slow across the ice, dating back to even her winning performance at world.
    Miki got a few years to improve and she just fixed all of her jumps & speed this year. Let's not call her the powerful fast skater for a girl who just got it together after so many years of improving herself.
    Rachael is only 17, got a full set of triples.
    Miki got a full set of triples at the age of 22. If you want to compare, Rachael is more impressive compare to Miki at 17.
    Oh, honey. If your trying to say Miki didn't have a full set if triples because of her Lip, don't worry because she's corrected it two seasons ago. Miki is one of the few female skaters that have a full set of triples. And she was always a fast skater. I do agree that she skated rather slow in the LP at Worlds 2007, but she was injured.



    Rachael is the one having these "!" on her Flips this season. See LP protocol of COC.

    Last edited by MikiAndoFan#1; 02-07-2010 at 07:19 AM.

  5. #110
    "Hold an edge and look sexy!" museksk8r's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by aurora100 View Post
    I watched Flatt's programs from Nationals. I don't see her artistry any less than Kostner or even Rochette.
    Now I have truly seen it all! Rachael's speed and edges don't hold a candle to Carolina's and Joannie's . . . they are leaps and bounds ahead of her. Her command, power, choreography, posture, flow, and sophistication is nowhere near theirs either. When they are clean, they receive much better GOE marks than a clean Flatt too. There is just no comparison in a scenario when the 3 of them go clean . . . Carolina and Joannie will always come out ahead and deservedly so at this stage of Rachael's development . . . she's not to their level yet.
    Last edited by museksk8r; 02-07-2010 at 10:23 AM.

  6. #111
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    Some random thoughts....

    1. Dance is interesting. If you believe it'll be fair, than you tend to pick either V/M or D/W for gold. If you think politics will rear it's ugly head, then it's DomShabs on the top step (or maybe DelSchoes).

    2. If Davis/White do win, we can definitely say the old World Order is gone. Never before has a team won the OGM without winning a worlds medal. In fact, only two teams have won Olympic medals without a preceding world medal: Anissina/Piezarat in 1998 (at the expense of Bourne/Kraatz) and Klimova/Ponamarenko in 1984 (at the expense of Blumberg/Siebert).

    3. Davis/White almost seem to be following Bourne/Kraatz pre-SLC. 4th at the previous words, winners of the GPF (remember, B/K beat A/P here). I'd be surprised, though, if D/W didn't medal. I can see two of other the top five teams beating them, but three? Delolbel/Schoenfelder, who will be debuting their program internationally? Belbin/Agosto, who've been consistently outpointed even when Davis/White make mistakes? The big issue here is politics, of course. People keep commenting on Linichuk's political abilities, but why didn't said abilities help B/A win Nationals (over D/W who did get the one deduction). Why wasn't it enough to help them secure a more considerable victory at Europeans (over F/S, who were terrific, admittedly, but the rest of the field? The midrange Kerrs, the still-playing catch-up K/N, the newly dumped and flawed P/B). Watching some of the older FDs from DomShabs makes me sad at how deeply his knee(s) have affected them, but they have. I just don't know to what extent politics favours these two teams, and how much that'll help.

    4. The men's field is so ridiculously broad that a podium with three of: Abbott, Chan, Joubert, Lambiel, Lysacek, Oda, Plushenko, Takahashi would be completely unsurprising (Verner on the podium in this field would be surprising. Ditto Weir, Contesti and Kozuka). So predicting it is a bit of a gong show for me.
    a) If triple axel problems emerge for Chan and Lambiel (as we know they will), will they be too far back after the short the do real medal damage? Especially Lambiel - he's a skater fighting injuries off (apparently he's not training his spins at all, which explains why they weren't the best in the history of the sport right now), but his PCS are always high and I suspect they'll be so at the Olympics.
    b) Conversely, will those short program skaters (Joubert, Takahashi) have a strong enough lead to hold on to a medal?
    c) How do the next generation do? I'm thinking Ten, Amodio, Fernandez, Brezina (Rippon's obviously part of this group as well, but doesn't count for obvious reasons)
    d) I don't view Plushenko as a mortal lock on the OGM, but he's the one the most likely to skate to his potential and his potential is certainly OGM level. But I think his PCS at Euros were telling - they're not gonna prop him up (which he doesn't need, admittedly).
    e) Has Oda peaked too early? How about Abbott?
    f) No one has won an OGM without winning a Worlds medal first here either. Of course, here that means nothing given how mixed the medalists have been (Joubert being the one constant).

    5. No idea about the ladies. People point out Rochette's had a poor season and isn't great with expectations. Kim has been winning but not perfectly (and not minor errors, but falls, stumbles, leaving out jumps). Asada had a horrible beginning, but winning Nationals and 4CC should be a boost. Or maybe not - her 4CC wasn't amazing, and she did lose the short. Suzuki's been living in pretty much a fairy tale - winning her first GP event, winning bronze at the GPF with a seven triple program, throwing down another seven triple program at Nationals and earning an Olympic berth, second at 4CC. More so than any other skater, she so easily conveys the sheer joy of skating - her steps sequence in her "West Side Story" free is one of my favourite skating moments of the season. I'm rooting for her to do well - a top five finish, maybe a medal? But as for predictions? Well, Kim's the favourite for a reason. We're gonna have three world champions here. We're gonna have two silver medalists (three technically, but you know what I mean). People have been wagering on Flatt's competitive steadiness, but lets be fair, it's the Olympics. She's never been tested like this before. And she'll have her own expectations - her own comments suggests it would be doubtful to see her in Sochi. So if this is her one chance, she'll want to own it. And what of Kostner? It's so tempting to go for the tried and true and predict a repeat of the 2009 Worlds, but how often does that happen (short answer? 1967/1968: Fleming, Seyfert and Maskova were the medalists in 1967, and repeated in the same order in 1968)? We say that the favourites haven't won, but to be fair, that means they haven't won in the last two Olympics. I don't know how Lipinski, Baiul or Yamaguchi wouldn't have been at least co-favourites.

    6. Pairs? Boring. But Shen/Zhao winning will probably be the most satisfying moment of the games. And them not winning would rip my heart out and stomp on it. I do think we're underestimating D/D - bronze is a longshot, but I think top five is reasonable).

  7. #112
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    Quote Originally Posted by ImaginaryPogue View Post
    Some random thoughts....
    5. No idea about the ladies. People point out Rochette's had a poor season and isn't great with expectations. Kim has been winning but not perfectly (and not minor errors, but falls, stumbles, leaving out jumps). Asada had a horrible beginning, but winning Nationals and 4CC should be a boost. Or maybe not - her 4CC wasn't amazing, and she did lose the short. Suzuki's been living in pretty much a fairy tale - winning her first GP event, winning bronze at the GPF with a seven triple program, throwing down another seven triple program at Nationals and earning an Olympic berth, second at 4CC. More so than any other skater, she so easily conveys the sheer joy of skating - her steps sequence in her "West Side Story" free is one of my favourite skating moments of the season. I'm rooting for her to do well - a top five finish, maybe a medal? But as for predictions? Well, Kim's the favourite for a reason. We're gonna have three world champions here. We're gonna have two silver medalists (three technically, but you know what I mean). People have been wagering on Flatt's competitive steadiness, but lets be fair, it's the Olympics. She's never been tested like this before. And she'll have her own expectations - her own comments suggests it would be doubtful to see her in Sochi. So if this is her one chance, she'll want to own it. And what of Kostner? It's so tempting to go for the tried and true and predict a repeat of the 2009 Worlds, but how often does that happen (short answer? 1967/1968: Fleming, Seyfert and Maskova were the medalists in 1967, and repeated in the same order in 1968)? We say that the favourites haven't won, but to be fair, that means they haven't won in the last two Olympics. I don't know how Lipinski, Baiul or Yamaguchi wouldn't have been at least co-favourites.
    Interesting. Yamaguchi, I think, was definitely a favorite going in. Baiul was a favorite internationally, while US predicted Kerrigan. Lipinski should have been a co-favorite but I felt she was more of a big threat, because everyone seemed to be saying it was Michelle's to lose. I think the favorite started not winning because people kept on saying they were mortal lock for the gold; it puts too much pressure on them. It's better to go in as co-favorite, because you share the pressure I wonder if Costner will pull a Lu Chen and make a great comeback.

  8. #113
    Off the ice Buttercup's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ImaginaryPogue View Post
    1. Dance is interesting. If you believe it'll be fair, than you tend to pick either V/M or D/W for gold. If you think politics will rear it's ugly head, then it's DomShabs on the top step (or maybe DelSchoes).
    I don't buy that. We have yet to see DelSchoes in competition so it's impossible to say whether or notthey are in shape to be medal-worthy, but to dismiss them in this situation and suggest they can only win through politiks is frankly insulting. They're a good team, they were in great shape for the first half of last season, and they have better CDs than V/M and D/W (the latter I find extremely overrated, but that's besides the point) and they haven't been handed anything in their career - they had to earn it. For DomShabs to win, based on what we have seen for them, would indeed require a lot of work by Linichuk and Piseev.

    4. The men's field is so ridiculously broad that a podium with three of: Abbott, Chan, Joubert, Lambiel, Lysacek, Oda, Plushenko, Takahashi would be completely unsurprising (Verner on the podium in this field would be surprising. Ditto Weir, Contesti and Kozuka). So predicting it is a bit of a gong show for me.
    Indeed. At this point nothing would surprise me! The guys know it too, you get long lists of contenders whenever they are interviewed.

    6. Pairs? Boring. But Shen/Zhao winning will probably be the most satisfying moment of the games. And them not winning would rip my heart out and stomp on it. I do think we're underestimating D/D - bronze is a longshot, but I think top five is reasonable).
    Up until a few months ago I'd have said the same; I'm a fan going back to 1999. But then I saw their LP, and it's so blah, I can't support their winning over a superior program like S/S's Out of Africa. The latter may lack Shen and Zhao' emotional connection, but they are more innovative and I'd like to see that rewarded. That having been said, a third bronze would be too cruel. Silver for S/Z, gold for S/S, and bronze for whoever has a good week, and I'd be pleased. I actually find the pairs event quite interesting - lots of good teams in the field.

  9. #114
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    It is insulting, you're right. But my thought is we haven't seen them in over a year. They have debuted their program yet. When V/M debuted their programs internationally, they had two deductions for extended lifts. D/W had their lowest marks this season at Nebelhorn. The likelihood that they're gonna have two polished programs that can compete technically with the two young teams isn't strong. While they have stronger compulsories, it's not gonna be a six or seven point difference (which is what I think they'd need). The fact is while we don't know what state they're in, the sheer fact that they haven't competed, are coming back from injury and pregnancy means that it's not likely they're at the top of their game. Secondly, I didn't say they'd need politics to medal. I said they'd need politics to WIN. Slight difference, for me. Thirdly, they haven't been handed anything in their career. So what? That's not germane here, nor is it evidence that politics won't intrude in this instance.

    How are S/S more innovative this season (or in general?)? They're good skaters, but they haven't been great this season at all. They have a lovely long program, true, but why ignore the short in this discussion? Their short program is one of the season's best programs. It's also interesting that you're talking programs and not skating. I suspect that'll be the biggest meme of these Olympics.
    Last edited by ImaginaryPogue; 02-07-2010 at 11:46 AM.

  10. #115
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    Men
    Gold - Plushenko
    Silver - Chan
    Bronze - Lysacek

    Ladies
    Gold - Kim
    Silver - Asada
    Bronze - Rochette

    I predict that Yu-na will skate two clean programs for the first time in her career.

    And...
    after winning the Worlds at Torino, she will retire from competitive skating for a couple of years.
    Then she will come back and rejoin the Grand Prix circuit in the 2012-2013 season.

    Her final competition will be at Sochi Olympic Games in 2014, and the podium will look like this:

    Gold - Kim
    Silver - Murakami
    Bronze - Nagasu

  11. #116
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    Men:

    it's a numbers game, so here it comes:

    1. Plushenko
    2. Lysacek
    3. Oda

    Ladies:
    1. Kim
    2. Asada
    3. Rochette

    Pairs:
    1. Shen / Zhao
    2. Savchenko / Szolkowy
    2. Kavaguti / Smirnov

    Ice Dance:
    1. Virtue / Moir
    2. Davis / White
    3. Khoklova/Novitski

  12. #117
    Off the ice Buttercup's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ImaginaryPogue View Post
    It is insulting, you're right. But my thought is we haven't seen them in over a year. They have debuted their program yet. When V/M debuted their programs internationally, they had two deductions for extended lifts. D/W had their lowest marks this season at Nebelhorn. The likelihood that they're gonna have two polished programs that can compete technically with the two young teams isn't strong. While they have stronger compulsories, it's not gonna be a six or seven point difference (which is what I think they'd need). The fact is while we don't know what state they're in, the sheer fact that they haven't competed, are coming back from injury and pregnancy means that it's not likely they're at the top of their game. Secondly, I didn't say they'd need politics to medal. I said they'd need politics to WIN. Slight difference, for me. Thirdly, they haven't been handed anything in their career. So what? That's not germane here, nor is it evidence that politics won't intrude in this instance.
    In that case, I think you'd have been better off simply writing that DelSchoes are an unknown factor, not that they would need political maneuvering to win. That they haven't been helped by politics in the past is very relevant - because it indicates that their federation is unwilling or unable to support them to the extent they deserve, and if people think they'll win, they're likely basing it on their belief that DelSchoes will have to earn it once again. I think they can win it because they're that good when they're on. I also think they can blow it completely because we don't know if they're on. And while they may not be able to match V/M and D/W technically, they can certainly beat them on the second mark.

    How are S/S more innovative this season (or in general?)? They're good skaters, but they haven't been great this season at all. They have a lovely long program, true, but why ignore the short in this discussion? Their short program is one of the season's best programs. It's also interesting that you're talking programs and not skating. I suspect that'll be the biggest meme of these Olympics.
    Ingo Steuer is a better pairs choreographer than Lori Nichol. IMO, of course - this is my evaluation . I think both S/S and S/Z have different strengths and both have strong SPs, so for me it comes down to which free skate I prefer. The same goes for other disciplines, too - when the top skaters/teams are all good but are good in different ways, I look to the programs to make up my mind.
    Last edited by Buttercup; 02-07-2010 at 11:59 AM.

  13. #118
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    Quote Originally Posted by Buttercup View Post
    In that case, I think you'd have been better off simply writing that DelSchoes are an unknown factor, not that they would need political maneuvering to win. That they haven't been helped by politics in the past is very relevant - because it indicates that their federation is unwilling or unable to support them to the extent they deserve, and if people think they'll win, they're likely basing it on their belief that DelSchoes will have to earn it once again. I think they can win it because they're that good when they're on. I also think they can blow it completely because we don't know if they're on. And while they may not be able to match V/M and D/W technically, they can certainly beat them on the second mark.
    Fair enough. I do think the political situation has changed enough to make past difficulties in said arena less germane to the discussion, though.

  14. #119
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    Quote Originally Posted by ImaginaryPogue View Post
    6. Pairs? Boring. But Shen/Zhao winning will probably be the most satisfying moment of the games. And them not winning would rip my heart out and stomp on it. I do think we're underestimating D/D - bronze is a longshot, but I think top five is reasonable).
    I think Pairs is one of the most exciting disciplines! I agree that almost everyone is underestimating Jess and Bryce. They have the same base value as the other top teams and routinely get level 4s on their elements while other teams have a couple level 3s or 2s. They also have a higher base value on their throws. With the improvements they have made on their triple twist and with high execution marks, they could very well sneak in for a medal. If they skate their long program like they did at Nationals - with a clean landing on the triple lutz of course - I think they will be on the podium.

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    My issue with pairs is that I don't really care for many of them. I like Shen/Zhao a great deal, of course. I enjoy Savchenko/Szolkowy, but not enough to root for them. And as for the Russians and the remaining Chinese duos, I can take or leave them. It's a broad field, but not a particularly deep one. Essentially, the only podium that would give me pleasure if S/Z, S/S and D/D, and that's only a slight possibility. And essentially, that requires: K/S to be wholly inconsistent in the long (falls on the throw quad, mistake on the SBS triples), M/T to have their usually weak long, and P/T to get hammered by underrotations, and I don't want that either.

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