2010 Olympic Preview to Ladies Figure Skating

[miki88]

yuna will win a medal ---> definetely.. the only question is what colour it will be..... i think it will be gold... she has learned her lesson the last two competitions where she struggled a bit and now she has had two months to prepare .. she's a strong competitor...

she only needs a strong short ( which should not be a big deal), going into the free with a 5-10 point lead and then rely on her pcs which will be at least 5 points higher than for the other ladies...

i really believe it's almost impossible for her not to take home the gold medal.... all the other ladies just don't have the consistency and stamina to battle her ( hit me if i'm wrong)... and those who have ( akiko, rachael) don't have the reputation to be really counted in ( reflected in rather low pcs)...

I'd say:



1st yuna
2nd mao, joannie, miki or whoever
3rd suprise finish ( like kostner finally landing 4-5 triple jumps cleanly or rachael maybe)

Um Miki and Yuna's PCS was almost the same at the GPF and Joannie's PCS is usually not that far behind, so it's not a given that Yuna will score at least 5 points higher than everyone. Also, from the GPF results, I feel the judges will not want to widen the gap too much based on the SP. And you saw that in the pairs even when Shen/Zhao were the obvious favorite.

[silverlake22]

The only way Yuna won't have a big margin after the SP is if Mao has her 3a-2t ratified and Miki does 3lz-3lo and has that ratified, and both those are big ifs. Yuna will be one of a handful of ladies to do a 3-3 in the SP and that boosts her TES by about 5 points (base value and GOE) and THAT is where she will build up the margin. Yuna's PCS are high but not so much above the other ladies, her huge scores come from her GOE mostly. A 3lz-3t by Yuna is good for about 12 points (10 points base value and +2 GOE), whereas the ladies doing 3lz-2t will get between 5 (if given and edge call) and say 9 (if given +1.7 GOE and great). Mao's SP is do or die because a 3a<-2t is worth 4.8 points and won't get good GOEs because it's downgraded. Carolina with a 3f-3t though could be close to Yuna's score though, and if Mirai tries a 3-3 and gets it ratified she could get a high score too (judging from what she got at CoC with a 3lz-2t). Rachael and Akiko will be kept down in the SP and will do better in the LP and pull up. If Mao has her 3a UR, Miki doesn't do the 3-3, Joannie makes typical SP mistakes, and Carolina has shaky jumps, Yuna has the gold medal in the bag.

[miki88]

The only way Yuna won't have a big margin after the SP is if Mao has her 3a-2t ratified and Miki does 3lz-3lo and has that ratified, and both those are big ifs. Yuna will be one of a handful of ladies to do a 3-3 in the SP and that boosts her TES by about 5 points (base value and GOE) and THAT is where she will build up the margin. Yuna's PCS are high but not so much above the other ladies, her huge scores come from her GOE mostly. A 3lz-3t by Yuna is good for about 12 points (10 points base value and +2 GOE), whereas the ladies doing 3lz-2t will get between 5 (if given and edge call) and say 9 (if given +1.7 GOE and great). Mao's SP is do or die because a 3a<-2t is worth 4.8 points and won't get good GOEs because it's downgraded. Carolina with a 3f-3t though could be close to Yuna's score though, and if Mirai tries a 3-3 and gets it ratified she could get a high score too (judging from what she got at CoC with a 3lz-2t). Rachael and Akiko will be kept down in the SP and will do better in the LP and pull up. If Mao has her 3a UR, Miki doesn't do the 3-3, Joannie makes typical SP mistakes, and Carolina has shaky jumps, Yuna has the gold medal in the bag.

How will Joannie measure up if she skates a clean SP with some hometown boost? I think Miki has to try the 3-3 or else she won't have a chance at the gold.

[silverlake22]

How will Joannie measure up if she skates a clean SP with some hometown boost? I think Miki has to try the 3-3 or else she won't have a chance at the gold.

If Joannie is CLEAN, she will be up there. 65-70 I'd guess. But she tends to make mistakes in the SP, so it will all depend. Miki got a 66+ at the GPF with a 3-2 and a level 1 layback so if Mao, Joannie, and Carolina have glitches in the SP she will still be in the medal hunt without the 3-3 i'd guess, she is a stronger LP skater as well.

[wonderlen3000]

IS the skating order for the ladies SP drawn yet??? I'm curious to know who will be in what group. Do they go by the world ranking or the ranking from the world championship last year???