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Thread: Top Ladies LP math/element analysis & comparisons to their "Yu-Na beating" LPs

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    it's olympic season :D bethissoawesome's Avatar
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    Top Ladies LP math/element analysis & comparisons to their "Yu-Na beating" LPs

    Highest Breakdown of LP technical elements:

    Mao Asada, Yu-Na Kim, Miki Ando, Rachael Flatt, Akiko Suzuki, Joannie Rochette, Carolina Kostner, Mirai Nagasu

    (assuming all jumps are landed, no <. !. or e... and highest level achieved on the spins, spiral, and step sequences so far in competition on both national and *mostly* international level)

    Mao Asada

    3A 8.20
    3A+2T 9.50
    3F+2Lo 7.00
    FSSp4 3.00
    SpSq4 3.40
    3LO 5.50x
    3F+2Lo+2Lo 9.35x
    3T 4.40x
    2A 3.85x
    FCoSp4 3.00
    SlSt3 3.30
    CCoSp4 3.50

    TOTAL: 64.00

    The last Mao Asada Program to beat Yu-Na Kim also contained two 3A's and is quite similar to her Olympic program...the only changes are swapping the 3S for a 3Lo (gaining .55), and switching the places of the 3F sequences (and adding a 2Lo to the solo 3F. In every other way, the program elements are identical.

    3A+2T 9.50
    3A 8.20
    3F+2Lo+2Lo 8.50
    FSSp4 3.00
    SpSq4 3.40
    3S 4.95x
    3F 6.05x
    3T 4.40x
    2A 3.85x
    FCoSp4 3.00
    SlSt3 3.30
    CCoSp4 3.50

    TOTAL: 61.65



    Yu-Na Kim

    -highest SP score during GP season

    3Lz+3T 10.00
    3F 5.50
    2A+2T+2Lo 6.30
    FCoSp4 3.00
    SpSq4 3.40
    2A+3T 8.25x
    3S 4.95x
    3Lz 6.60x
    SlSt3 3.30
    2A 3.85x
    FSSp3 2.60
    CCoSp3 3.00

    TOTAL: 60.75


    Miki Ando

    -3rd highest SP during GP season (66.20 at GPF)

    3Lz+2Lo 7.50 OR 3Lz+3Lo 11.0
    3S+2A*SEQ 6.40 OR 2A+3T 7.50 OR 2A+2T 4.80
    CCoSp4 3.50
    3Lo 5.00
    SpSq4 3.40
    3S 4.95x
    3Lz 6.60x
    FSSp4 3.00
    3T+2Lo+2Lo 7.70x
    2A 3.85x
    SlSt3 3.30
    FCoSp4 3.00

    TOTAL: 58.2 (w/ 3S+2A*SEQ), 59.3 (w/ 2A+3T), 56.6 (w/ 2A+2T)
    with 3Lz+3Lo 61.7 (w/ 3S+2A*SEQ), 62.8 (w/ 2A+3T), 60.1 (w/ 2A+2T)


    Last Program Miki beat Yu-Na with (2007 Worlds.. modified to reflect loss of one element and change in value of 2A,SlSt3)

    3Lz+3Lo 11.0
    3S 4.50
    3F 5.50
    FSSp2 2.00
    SpSq4 3.40
    3Lz 6.60x
    3T+2Lo+2Lo 7.70x
    3F+2Lo 7.70x
    2A 3.85x
    CoSp4 3.00
    SlSt3 3.30
    CCoSp4 3.50

    TOTAL: 62.05


    Rachael Flatt

    (last LP to top Yu-Na was at this season's Skate America, so the program her best possible program for this year will equal her best possible program winning in competition against Yu-Na)

    2A 3.50
    3F+3T 9.50
    3Lz 6.00
    FCSp4 3.20
    CCSp4 3.20
    3Lo 5.50x
    3Lz+2T 8.03x
    SpSq2 2.30
    3F+2T+2Lo 9.13x
    3S 4.95x
    CiSt3 3.30
    CCoSp3 3.00

    TOTAL: 61.61


    Akiko Suzuki

    3Lz+2T+2Lo 8.30
    3T+2A*SEQ 6.00
    3Lo 5.00
    CCoSp4 3.50
    SpSq4 3.40
    3F 6.05x
    3Lz 6.60x
    3Lo+2A*SEQ 7.48x
    3S 4.95x
    FCSp4 3.20
    SlSt3 3.30
    FCCoSp4 3.50

    TOTAL: 61.28

    Carolina Kostner

    (did place before Yu-Na at 2008 Worlds, but only because of Yu-Na's 5th place finish in the SP, her 1st place LP took her to ronze. GP SP best of 61.12 at CoC)

    3F+3T 9.50
    3Lz 6.00
    2A+2T 4.80
    FCoSp3 2.50
    SpSq4 3.40
    3F 6.05X
    3Lo 5.50X
    2A 3.85X
    3S+2T 6.38X
    FSSp4 3.00
    SlSt3 3.30
    CCoSp4 3.50

    TOTAL: 57.78


    Joannie Rochette

    (topped Yu-Na's LP during 2009 4CC's)
    -2nd highest SP score during GP (70.00 at Skate Canada)


    3Lz+2T+2Lo 8.80
    3F 5.50
    3Lo 5.00
    FCSSp4 3.00
    SpSq3 3.10
    3Lz 6.60x
    3T+3S*SEQ 7.48x
    2A+2T 5.28x
    CCoSp4 3.50
    3S 4.95x
    CiSt3 3.30
    FSSp4 3.00

    TOTAL: 59.51


    Mirai Nagasu

    -4th highest SP score during GP season (62.20 at CoC)

    3Lz+2T+2Lo 8.80
    2A+3T 7.50
    3F 5.50
    FSSp4 3.00
    LSp4 2.70
    SpSq4 3.40
    3Lz 6.60x
    3Lo+2A*SEQ 7.48x
    2A 3.85x
    3T 4.40x
    SlSt3 3.30
    CCoSp4 3.50

    TOTAL: 60.03




    For me, the most interesting thing to come of this was seeing that the LP Mao is using this season is nearly identical to the last program she was able to beat Yu-Na with... the only difference in the technical elements are slight tweaking to add a bit more to the base score. It makes me wonder if this was done on purpose...

    All of the top contenders, skating a clean program, are fairly close in their technical elements... even with two 3A's, Mao has now definitely lost that one fall buffer she used to have over the rest of the skaters on the technical front. Even so, her LP seems to clearly put pressure on Yu-Na for her SP. This is essentially the last program that Yu-Na has lost to in her competitive history, and unless she seals the deal on the SP, history could repeat itself.

  2. #2
    Mashimaro on Ice
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    I think someone else did a analysis of the top contenders LP before. Yea, but the difference between this season Mao and last season Mao is in her do or die SP. If Mao doesn't skate a clean SP, she won't pose a threat to Yuna with her LP. This is what most worries me. If Mao falters in her SP, then I see Miki being the next one to rival Yuna if she does make mistakes in her LP. I just don't see Rochette as a big threat to overtake Yuna, because she has her own issues with pressure.
    But I think it's really interesting that we haven't yet seen the several of the top contenders skate clean at one competition. Usually if one or two skate well, the others will make mistakes. It will be interesting to see if a scenario like 1998 will repeat where the two top contenders skate two great LP's and it just comes down to who was a little better
    Last edited by miki88; 02-14-2010 at 02:01 AM.

  3. #3
    Dreaming and dancing Bennett's Avatar
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    It is GOE in which the other skaters cannot touch Yuna.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bennett View Post
    It is GOE in which the other skaters cannot touch Yuna.
    This is what I was about to say. Yuna gets huge GOE on a lot of her elements, while some of her competitors do not. Asada's triple axel is very hit or miss, and will not get the +2GOE Kim will with her 3-3.

    Nonetheless, this only confirms what we've believed: It's really anyone's game, these Olympics. No one is unbeatable and it will depend on who skates the best on their respective nights. Asada may well hit 2 triple axels and Kim might falter somewhere. You just never know.

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    it's olympic season :D bethissoawesome's Avatar
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    It really seems like the SP will be the deciding factor, if either Mao or Yu-Na skate clean and one falters, the gold will most likely be theirs... if both fail or both skate clean, it could be anyone's game. Yu-Na does seem more like the sure fire bet, but I think Mao could offer a surprise and skate clean because of her "strange" skating all season... she already has every gold medal in skating, she's just missing the Olympics. Every competition this season, it seems like Mao just skated as yet another practice run-through of her programs; she always seemed completely unphased as to how well she did. It seems like she either doesn't care, is more interested in putting her 3A's in the record books than getting gold, or she could repeat what she did in the '08 GPF and hit all the jumps we watched her mess up all season. She skates great under pressure (or when it seems like she really wants to), and has made fantastic comebacks from horrible SP's (which is the problem with her current SP, it's just one you can't make a huge comeback from).

    One thing I wonder is if Yu-Na doesn't nail her 3Lz+3T, if other skaters will opt out of 3-3's as well, banking on Mao missing at least missing one of her 3A's. Also, if both skaters pull off clean SP's, how will it affect the rest of the competition if they genuinely feel that the best they can hope for is bronze? Who will go out there and play it safe to try to secure bronze easily, and who will still give it everything they've got to try to sneak in for gold or silver if the LP's turn disastrous?

  6. #6
    Mashimaro on Ice
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    Quote Originally Posted by bethissoawesome View Post
    It really seems like the SP will be the deciding factor, if either Mao or Yu-Na skate clean and one falters, the gold will most likely be theirs... if both fail or both skate clean, it could be anyone's game. Yu-Na does seem more like the sure fire bet, but I think Mao could offer a surprise and skate clean because of her "strange" skating all season... she already has every gold medal in skating, she's just missing the Olympics. Every competition this season, it seems like Mao just skated as yet another practice run-through of her programs; she always seemed completely unphased as to how well she did. It seems like she either doesn't care, is more interested in putting her 3A's in the record books than getting gold, or she could repeat what she did in the '08 GPF and hit all the jumps we watched her mess up all season. She skates great under pressure (or when it seems like she really wants to), and has made fantastic comebacks from horrible SP's (which is the problem with her current SP, it's just one you can't make a huge comeback from).

    One thing I wonder is if Yu-Na doesn't nail her 3Lz+3T, if other skaters will opt out of 3-3's as well, banking on Mao missing at least missing one of her 3A's. Also, if both skaters pull off clean SP's, how will it affect the rest of the competition if they genuinely feel that the best they can hope for is bronze? Who will go out there and play it safe to try to secure bronze easily, and who will still give it everything they've got to try to sneak in for gold or silver if the LP's turn disastrous?
    I'm sure someone will try to go all out (maybe Miki since she's already planning 3-3), because it's the Olympics and things usually doesn't go as expected. Even if the favorite wins, I feel there's going to be some kind of battle.

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    Dreaming and dancing Bennett's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bethissoawesome View Post
    One thing I wonder is if Yu-Na doesn't nail her 3Lz+3T
    Isn't her success rate of 3-3 at comp like 90%? I think that one of the greatest advantages of Yuna is that her money jump is so consistent and reliable.
    Last edited by Bennett; 02-14-2010 at 08:55 AM.

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    Yes, I agree Miki Ando is the one that could go out...She is one of the most experienced (along with CaroK) and I don't think she will suffer too much pressure, since this is mostly on Yuna and Mao... She already show that in GP final and will try again here.
    Flatt is very consistent and I can see her coming out for the podium, but not for the gold..CaroK has come back at Euros, but I don't think she could still handle all that pressure, plus she always has some problems with levels and in this sort of competition could be really those little 0.--- that matter!

  9. #9
    Custom Title MikiAndoFan#1's Avatar
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    Miki may change her jump layout to this:

    3Lz+3Lo 11.00
    2A+3T 7.50
    3F 5.50
    3Lz x 6.60
    3S x 4.95
    3T x 4.40
    2A+2Lo+2Lo x 7.15

    Jump base value: 47.10 points

    So, it will be like this:

    3Lz+3Lo 11.00
    2A+3T 7.50
    CCoSp4 3.50
    3F 5.50
    SpSq4 3.40
    3Lz x 6.60
    3S x 4.95
    FSSp4 3.00
    3T x 4.40
    2A+2Lo+2Lo x 7.15
    SlSt3 3.30
    FCoSp4 3.00

    Base value: 63.30 points

    But I would like to see Miki replace the 3T for a 3Lo. And the base value would be 64.40 points.


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    Quote Originally Posted by bethissoawesome View Post
    Highest Breakdown of LP technical elements:



    Akiko Suzuki

    3Lz+2T+2Lo 8.30
    3T+2A*SEQ 6.00
    3Lo 5.00
    CCoSp4 3.50
    SpSq4 3.40
    3F 6.05x
    3Lz 6.60x
    3Lo+2A*SEQ 7.48x
    3S 4.95x
    FCSp4 3.20
    SlSt3 3.30
    FCCoSp4 3.50

    TOTAL: 61.28

    [.
    I know, nobody really likes the 3 2A idea on skaters but i wonder why akiko doest not have a solo 2a in her program, that would make her tec score even higher, now that she is pretty consistent

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    But since she already has seven jumping passes, how would it boost her TES? Unless you mean the GOE she'd get from it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by MikiAndoFan#1 View Post
    Miki may change her jump layout to this:

    3Lz+3Lo 11.00
    2A+3T 7.50
    3F 5.50
    3Lz x 6.60
    3S x 4.95
    3T x 4.40
    2A+2Lo+2Lo x 7.15

    Jump base value: 47.10 points

    So, it will be like this:

    3Lz+3Lo 11.00
    2A+3T 7.50
    CCoSp4 3.50
    3F 5.50
    SpSq4 3.40
    3Lz x 6.60
    3S x 4.95
    FSSp4 3.00
    3T x 4.40
    2A+2Lo+2Lo x 7.15
    SlSt3 3.30
    FCoSp4 3.00

    Base value: 63.30 points

    But I would like to see Miki replace the 3T for a 3Lo. And the base value would be 64.40 points.

    Miki's LP is money if she can hit those two combinations. They look great in all the practice videos i've seen.

    As for Yuna, she'll likely have a big lead coming into the LP and then her GOEs are huge. A clean Yuna SP here will be good for 75-77 points, whereas a clean JoRo, Miki, Mao, or Caro will probably only get 65-67. 10 points is a big cushion going into the LP so Yuna can probably afford to miss her 3s or 3f and still win.

  13. #13
    Mashimaro on Ice
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    Quote Originally Posted by silverlake22 View Post
    Miki's LP is money if she can hit those two combinations. They look great in all the practice videos i've seen.

    As for Yuna, she'll likely have a big lead coming into the LP and then her GOEs are huge. A clean Yuna SP here will be good for 75-77 points, whereas a clean JoRo, Miki, Mao, or Caro will probably only get 65-67. 10 points is a big cushion going into the LP so Yuna can probably afford to miss her 3s or 3f and still win.
    I'm not sure. The judges may want to keep those who skated clean at a closer range in scores, as they did in Pairs, so the competition can be decided by the LP. In 2006, the judges kept the top 3 in the SP fairly close to each other in points because they want it to be a real contest, so I think they will be doing the same thing here. I also think Rochette will get a boost in hometown scoring that may keep her closer to Yuna if she skates clean.
    Last edited by miki88; 02-15-2010 at 01:19 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ImaginaryPogue View Post
    But since she already has seven jumping passes, how would it boost her TES? Unless you mean the GOE she'd get from it.
    Exactly-Akiko is playing VERY smart with the layout she does. Since she does not have a 3/3 and her 2a/3t rarely is ratified. By doing 2 3-2a sequences, she maximizes her jumping passes. Should she do a 2ax instead of any planned jumping pass, she will lower her base value.

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    Quote Originally Posted by MKFSfan View Post
    Exactly-Akiko is playing VERY smart with the layout she does. Since she does not have a 3/3 and her 2a/3t rarely is ratified. By doing 2 3-2a sequences, she maximizes her jumping passes. Should she do a 2ax instead of any planned jumping pass, she will lower her base value.
    Exactly, she tweaked her layout after getting dinged for for her 2a-3t and flutz at SC. She manages to fit in 7 triples without a 3-3 and by doing a 3-2a sequence she garners more points than she would by just doing a 3-2, plus the 2a is a strong jump for her so she can gain GOE points with this. Recently a lot of the skaters seem to be utilizing the 3-2a sequence and usually with good results - Ashley Wagner, Akiko Suzuki, and Kanako Murakami all do two 3-2a sequences in their LP. Mirai also did a 3lo-2a seq at nationals and I wouldn't be surprised if she changes her 2a-3t to a 3t-2a seq at worlds if she gets a downgrade on the 3t again here.

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