Ladies' LP

[Marrymeyunakim]

I have calculated the potential total element score for Mao and Yu-Na... so if they skate clean these are the sorts of technical scores they could get (but really, we're just trying to see the potential to score more than anything else). So yeah, please note that the ladies, in all probability, won't score as highly as this but I thought it would be fun to see how much potential they've got to score - and how close this potential is, technically speaking (and probably in the PCS too).

I'm assuming both will get level fours on their spiral sequence and spins, and level 3 on their step sequences. This is because at these Olympics, it's been quite easy to get the highest levels. I'm also assuming that both of them will get similar GOE to what they got here at the Olympics (or if they haven't performed it yet here in Vancouver, previous competitions).

Feel free to correct me.

Mao
3A

8.20 0.6 8.80

3A+2T

9.5 0.6 10.10

3F

5.5 0.2 5.7

FSSp4

3.0 0.5 3.5

SpSq4

3.40 2.00 5.40

3Lo

5.5x 1.00 6.50

3F+2Lo+2Lo

9.35 0.4 9.75

3T

4.4x 1.00 5.40

2A

3.85x 1.6 5.45

FCoSp4

3.00 0.6 3.6

SlSt3

3.30 1.0 4.30

CCoSp4

3.50 0.5 4.00

Base values: 62.50
Total: 72.50-74.0

[Marrymeyunakim]

Yu-Na
3Lz-3T

10.0 2.0 12.00

3F

5.5 1.2 6.70

2A+2T+2Lo

6.30 1.2 7.50

FCoSp4

3.0 0.5 3.5

SpSq4

3.40 2.00 5.40

2A+3T

8.25x 1.80 10.05

3S

4.95x 0.80 5.75

3Lz

6.60x 1.80 8.40

SlSt3

3.30 0.70 4.00

2A

3.85x 1.6 5.45

FSSp4

3.50 0.50 4.00

CCoSp4

3.50 1.00 4.50

Base values: 62.15, slightly lower than Mao.
Total: 76.35-77.25

[Nadia01]

My predications, ( I was off on all the other events so far maybe i will redeem myslef here).

Yu-na: skates well (the 2 Axel-3 toe is downgraded and 2 footed) maybe one other minor mistake. Wins easily.

Mao: one of her axles is downgraded as well as another jump. Holds onto second but is nowhere near Kim.

Joannie: is unable to skate clean, doubles her second lutz, steps out of a few things. Drops to 4th.

Miki: lands the 3/3 and the 2 Axel/ 3 toe. Moves up to get the bronze.

Result: the all-Asian podium I predicted months ago.

I don't see Yuna messing up her 2A-3T. I think she may possibly mess up or skip her 3F tho. But that's about it. Even w/ a skipped 3F, she set world rec score in LP, so I don't know how vulnerable she's really going to be. Also if she gets a super high score right before Mao, I wonder how Mao's gonna do.

[Marrymeyunakim]

By far the most obvious thing as I was calculating these scores was that if both skate perfectly (and neither will, I think), then the race will be extremely close, since their PCS are quite similar too. Another telling thing was that although Mao has a higher base value than Kim, it's quite clear that Kim's program was tailor made to maximise her points as much as possible, and to have an advantage over Mao. Mao does two triple axels and in order to counter this, Kim leaves a 3Lz until the second half of her program (kind of similar to the way Evan left some hard triples to counter Plushenko who did a quad in the first half of his program), and because of this Kim can score up to 8.40 points (as she did at TEB), somewhat "negating" the effect of Mao's other triple axel.

[mishieru07]

Kim goes before Mao so the order of the SP for them is reversed. Mao laid down the challenge today and Kim responded magnificently. If Kim lays down the challenge, and Mao responds accordingly, we could be in for a real treat. In some ways, both a privilege to witness two great talents who, had they been from separate times, could have been two individual OGM winners.

And what about Joannie... she is such a lovely girl. I want her to get bronze, or if Kim runs away with it, battle Mao for the silver. I feel bad that there are only three spots on the podium. My other favourite Miki maybe can't make it!

ITA. If I could, I'd give Davis/ White an OGM too. They delivered OGM worthy skates.

Interesting draw; Miki, Yu Na and Mao back-to-back! Woah.

I want a podium with four spots too (I'd also have Rochette, Mao, Yu Na and Miki on the podium). Bummer.

Here's to a day of great skating! GOOD LUCK TO ALL!!

[ehdtkqorl123]

It would be interesting to see the sudden change of atmosphere of the musics after Yu-Na skates lol

[mylastduchess]

Why doesn't Mao try a 3F 3L seq instead of 3F/2L? Atleast a 3F 2A seq.

[dlgpffps]

http://news.naver.com/main/read.nhn?...aid=0002019642
According to this Korean Newspaper article, a Korean judge Rhee will judge long program and there is no Japanese judge. Rhee says she will try her best to help Kim Yuna not lose. Shame. Shame. Shame.

Bad translation. She said she will try her best to ensure Yu-na doesn't suffer from poor discretion on the judge's side. Stop spreading conspiracy theories. She said: No matter how "scientific" the new scoring system's supposed to be, judges' personal opinions do influence the judging... If a skater has a judge from the same country, she will at least not suffer from wrong/unfair judging. I will try to ensure Yu-na does not suffer from uncalled for unfairness.

And this is in response to Korean conspiracy theories about the tech-caller, who DGed Yu-na's 3-3 at GPF.

[screech]

And don't forget, it's just one judge. There are 6 others whose marks count. And for all we know, she may be one of the judges whose score doesn't count for Kim and/or Mao.

[Artistry]

There's a Korean judge but no Japanese? Only a really naive person will still argue that won't matter under the 'new' system.

[ehdtkqorl123]

Now someone got excuses?

[dlgpffps]

There's a Korean judge but no Japanese? Only a really naive person will still argue that won't matter under the 'new' system.

Well, the SP round started with both. It just so happened that the Japanese judge didn't make it to the LP round. In some other competition, someone made a point that a particular Korean judge wasn't a LP judge, although she had judged the SP, and asked if the judge was disqualified for some reason. She wasn't. Some SP judges don't judge the LPs, and this is determined by chance. The Japanese judge by chance didn't make it to the second round. The imbalance is not a particular issue, but I do believe anonymity is.

[Itcaip]

Yuna will almost definitely score higher than Mao in terms of transitions and other PCS. Some people believe that Mao's PCS should have been higher than Kim's in the SP but the judges had something else to say about that, awarding Kim the advantage by around 1.5 points. I think the gap -may- increase if both skate perfectly because Mao lacks some choreography in her LP, especially because she's doing nothing in between her triple axels.

sorry, but what should mao do in between her axels?? split jumps and spread eagles??? she is the only woman who can do a triple axel.. even the men usually have a long preparation. all her other combinations and jumps by the way are proceeded by footwork or other moves...

[Marrymeyunakim]

sorry, but what should mao do in between her axels?? split jumps and spread eagles??? she is the only woman who can do a triple axel.. even the men usually have a long preparation. all her other combinations and jumps by the way are proceeded by footwork or other moves...

You're asking me what Mao should do? That should have been a point of discussion when Mao decided to put two triple-axels in her program.

[Itcaip]

You're asking me what Mao should do? That should have been a point of discussion when Mao decided to put two triple-axels in her program.

blahblah

honestly, how can you be so mean ? she tries to achieve something that no lady has ever done in one competition ( 3 triple axels) and gets dissed for it... appreciate it!

i really hope non of the skaters reads these boards.... let's just hope the best one wins and wish luck to everybody! amen!