Ladies' LP

[Nadia01]

http://news.naver.com/main/read.nhn?...aid=0002019642
According to this Korean Newspaper article, a Korean judge Rhee will judge long program and there is no Japanese judge. Rhee says she will try her best to help Kim Yuna not lose. Shame. Shame. Shame.

If you do not fully understand text in foreign language, please don't pretend that you do and create drama / rumors.

The judge merely said she'll judge fairly so that Yuna doesn't get robbed due to any discrimination or corruption. She did NOT say, "I'll make sure she wins no matter what."

What you're saying here is defamation of character and a libel. Seriously. Do YOU yourself feel any shame?

[bethissoawesome]

Why doesn't Mao try a 3F 3L seq instead of 3F/2L? Atleast a 3F 2A seq.

I think she might. I was watching a Japanese talk show, and they were commenting on Mao's performance at 4CCs. When Mao did her first 3F, they were surprised that she didn't follow with the other planned "triple" (although they did not specify which... I assume it would be the 3Lo, since she has a solo 3T later in the program). Then they reviewed it in slow motion, and said "she didn't have enough speed coming out to attempt the triple jump". That is why I asked if anyone had seen her practicing the combination in the practice thread... they clearly thought Mao was planning a 3F+3T or 3Lo combination for 4CCs, but just didn't execute it. Given the time between her GP events and the Olympics, she could have easily changed the program around to possibly include it if needed, and obviously there must have been some hint that she might attempt it if that is what the commentators were expecting.

As for Ladies LP predictions...

I think the LP placements might be something like this

1st or 2nd Mao Asada
1st or 2nd Joannie Rochette
(I think those two are interchangeable... If Mao skates clean, I think she will win the LP hands down... I think she will be second if she gets a downgrade on one 3A. If she doesn't, I think it will go to Joannie Rochette, particularly if she has a good skate, but also because of the tragedy with her mother and home ice. Joannie should garner a lot of high GOEs and a great PCS score to keep her up there despite having a less difficult program)
3rd Yu-Na Kim (I have a feeling Yu-Na will miss or get a downgrade on two things... either the 3T in the 3Lz+3T combination, the solo 3F which folllows the combo (she could potentially pop this), or the 3T on the 2A+3T combo)

BUT, I think they will keep the scores close enough so that the medals will wind up being
1st: Yu-Na Kim
2nd: Mao Asada
3rd: Joannie Rochette

The only skater I can possibly see threatening to change this podium order is Miki Ando... and to do that, she would need to skate a LP that is as good, if not better, than the one she skated at 2007 Worlds.

[Marrymeyunakim]

blahblah

honestly, how can you be so mean ? she tries to achieve something that no lady has ever done in one competition ( 3 triple axels) and gets dissed for it... appreciate it!

i really hope non of the skaters reads these boards.... let's just hope the best one wins and wish luck to everybody! amen!

Don't be silly. I have been nothing but gracious towards Mao throughout her career. Go read my posts if you don't agree.

[Marrymeyunakim]

I think she might. I was watching a Japanese talk show, and they were commenting on Mao's performance at 4CCs. When Mao did her first 3F, they were surprised that she didn't follow with the other planned "triple" (although they did not specify which... I assume it would be the 3Lo, since she has a solo 3T later in the program). Then they reviewed it in slow motion, and said "she didn't have enough speed coming out to attempt the triple jump". That is why I asked if anyone had seen her practicing the combination in the practice thread... they clearly thought Mao was planning a 3F+3T or 3Lo combination for 4CCs, but just didn't execute it. Given the time between her GP events and the Olympics, she could have easily changed the program around to possibly include it if needed, and obviously there must have been some hint that she might attempt it if that is what the commentators were expecting.

As for Ladies LP predictions...

I think the LP placements might be something like this

1st or 2nd Mao Asada
1st or 2nd Joannie Rochette
(I think those two are interchangeable... If Mao skates clean, I think she will win the LP hands down... I think she will be second if she gets a downgrade on one 3A. If she doesn't, I think it will go to Joannie Rochette, particularly if she has a good skate, but also because of the tragedy with her mother and home ice. Joannie should garner a lot of high GOEs and a great PCS score to keep her up there despite having a less difficult program)
3rd Yu-Na Kim (I have a feeling Yu-Na will miss or get a downgrade on two things... either the 3T in the 3Lz+3T combination, the solo 3F which folllows the combo (she could potentially pop this), or the 3T on the 2A+3T combo)

BUT, I think they will keep the scores close enough so that the medals will wind up being
1st: Yu-Na Kim
2nd: Mao Asada
3rd: Joannie Rochette

The only skater I can possibly see threatening to change this podium order is Miki Ando... and to do that, she would need to skate a LP that is as good, if not better, than the one she skated at 2007 Worlds.

I too have been wondering what Mao would do if Kim skates lights out.

Scenario: Kim skates a clean LP. It receives 139 points (going by TEB scores and general inflation at these Olympics). What does Mao do?
a) Do 2 3-a's, a 3F-3Lo and lay it all out and see how it pans?
b) Keep the 2 3-a's, do not attempt a triple-triple and go for silver?
c) Keep one 3-a, do not attempt the triple-triple and stay clean?

I have a feeling that Mao will win OGM. I don't know if this is to save me from disappointment (everyone has favourites, right?) or something.

One thing I do feel is that underrotations will not heavily feature in the scoring. Miki's 3-F and Rachael's 3-Lz weren't UR'd. Nor were Mao's 3-F or Kim's 3-T. So I don't agree with your assessment that Kim will receive a downgrade or two. What I will agree with is that she has issues with her flip. It may be her undoing. I hope it's not.

[*Sniper*]

http://news.naver.com/main/read.nhn?...aid=0002019642
According to this Korean Newspaper article, a Korean judge Rhee will judge long program and there is no Japanese judge. Rhee says she will try her best to help Kim Yuna not lose. Shame. Shame. Shame.

There's a Korean judge but no Japanese? Only a really naive person will still argue that won't matter under the 'new' system.

LOL I guess I'm super naive.
Unless Judge Rhee turns out to be the mastermind behind all the judging panels that have given out high scores for Kim over the years, I find these "allegations" almost paranoic.

Kim's won plenty of competitions with or without her in the panel, I'm sure, so why would it all of a sudden be something that arouses suspicion now?

Also regarding that Korean article, I cannot imagine any sane judge hinting at his/her intention to mark up their favorites (or do whatever it is that makes you, knit, go "Shame Shame Shame") in an interview.
So before you jump to conclusions, please provide a more thorough translation.
(I see that it's already provided. Thanks, dlgpffps.)

[bethissoawesome]

blahblah

honestly, how can you be so mean ? she tries to achieve something that no lady has ever done in one competition ( 3 triple axels) and gets dissed for it... appreciate it!

i really hope non of the skaters reads these boards.... let's just hope the best one wins and wish luck to everybody! amen!

Marrymeyunakim has been very gracious and supportive of Mao throughout all of the posts. I have no idea where you are getting an idea contrary to that... perhaps you should read the boards a bit more thoroughly

Yuna will almost definitely score higher than Mao in terms of transitions and other PCS. Some people believe that Mao's PCS should have been higher than Kim's in the SP but the judges had something else to say about that, awarding Kim the advantage by around 1.5 points. I think the gap -may- increase if both skate perfectly because Mao lacks some choreography in her LP, especially because she's doing nothing in between her triple axels.

I actually think Mao has a better chance of scoring closer to Yu-Na (PCS wise) in the long as opposed to the short. The preparation for Mao's 3A+2T takes up a higher percentage of the program time than the 3A+2T and solo 3A does in the LP. She has more of a chance to make up for it in the LP. Although I think a lot of it will depend (for both Mao and Yu-Na) on how their first jump combinations go... the 3A+2T and solo 3A have the biggest risk factor for Mao, and the 3Lz+3T is so important to Yu-Na and her she does pop her first 3F periodically (there has also been trouble with downgrades on her 2A+3T this season). Hopefully both of them get their first two jumps off clean so we get to see great performances.... if they fall, I really hope it's towards the end so their programs don't turn out half-hearted hehe.

Also, I did a similar analysis with all the top ladies earlier (I took all their jumps and elements with the highest level they received all season)... do you want a link? It would be interesting to see what it could wind up being now that there is more of a basis for GOE's. ^_^

[raress]

Can you tell me a live stream for the first 2 groups because Eurosport will broadcast only the last two?

[Marrymeyunakim]

Marrymeyunakim has been very gracious and supportive of Mao throughout all of the posts. I have no idea where you are getting an idea contrary to that... perhaps you should read the boards a bit more thoroughly



I actually think Mao has a better chance of scoring closer to Yu-Na (PCS wise) in the long as opposed to the short. The preparation for Mao's 3A+2T takes up a higher percentage of the program time than the 3A+2T and solo 3A does in the LP. She has more of a chance to make up for it in the LP. Although I think a lot of it will depend (for both Mao and Yu-Na) on how their first jump combinations go... the 3A+2T and solo 3A have the biggest risk factor for Mao, and the 3Lz+3T is so important to Yu-Na and her she does pop her first 3F periodically (there has also been trouble with downgrades on her 2A+3T this season). Hopefully both of them get their first two jumps off clean so we get to see great performances.... if they fall, I really hope it's towards the end so their programs don't turn out half-hearted hehe.

Also, I did a similar analysis with all the top ladies earlier (I took all their jumps and elements with the highest level they received all season)... do you want a link? It would be interesting to see what it could wind up being now that there is more of a basis for GOE's. ^_^

Thanks Beth. I would love a link.

Actually you may be onto something there about Mao getting equal PCS as Kim, given that in the long there's more time to "make up" for the lost time setting up for her triple axels. I just wished that Mao-chan could have a better coach and choreo because she could honestly be doing so much better - costumes, jumps, everything. Guess it's a testament to how naturally talented she is that she is currently matching it with Kim. In fact, I think Mao is maybe a bit more talented than Yu-Na; it's just Yu-Na has been shaped better to suit this current system.

I'm really proud of the way Kim handled herself after she felt the crowd going crazy for Mao, and hearing that she'd scored a personal best in the SP. She didn't flop like I feared, especially not on her flip which has been her achilles heel this season. I want the long program to be awesome, with Joannie (especially her, God she deserves it), Miki, Mao and Yu-Na skating to their full potential.

I feel saddened that there are all these fans of the sport wishing for their favourite's nemesis will fall and splat and for all their hard work to come undone at the biggest moment of their careers. I for one can admit I have had some animosity towards Mao in the past because of her fans and their poor sportsmanship, but after seeing Mao so sad if she performs poorly usually does the trick and I'm back on the Mao-wagon. :lol:

[*Sniper*]

I too have been wondering what Mao would do if Kim skates lights out.

Scenario: Kim skates a clean LP. It receives 139 points (going by TEB scores and general inflation at these Olympics). What does Mao do?
a) Do 2 3-a's, a 3F-3Lo and lay it all out and see how it pans?
b) Keep the 2 3-a's, do not attempt a triple-triple and go for silver?
c) Keep one 3-a, do not attempt the triple-triple and stay clean?

Oh dear. Wouldn't it be too late to change a program at that point?
She skates right after Yuna.
That would seem just too much thinking going on in her head.
In my view, whatever Yuna's score is, Mao's got to stick to her plan and work with what she's got.
If she had a reliable 3-3, I'm sure it would already be in her program by now along with the 2 3As.

[Marrymeyunakim]

Oh dear. Wouldn't it be too late to change a program at that point?
She skates right after Yuna.
That would seem just too much thinking going on in her head.
In my view, whatever Yuna's score is, Mao's got to stick to her plan and work with what she's got.
If she had a reliable 3-3, I'm sure it would already be in her program by now along with the 2 3As.

Sniper, you have a point there.

I'm just not sure that Mao's program is enough to beat Yu-Na's by approximately 5 points by doing 2 3-A's as her main weapons. And that's what she's got to do in order to beat Kim. Of course, this is all under the assumption that Kim brings the roof down with her LP, which, at this point, I'm not so sure of.

That said, I am 100% certain that Mao has been discussing strategy with Tarasova and what to do as the situation calls. If Kim splats, go safe. It's when Kim does a good-but-not-great or a bring-the-stadium-down skate where I'm not sure what Mao's strategy will be.

[ehdtkqorl123]

Wow this thread is already so hot!

[*Sniper*]

Sniper, you have a point there.

I'm just not sure that Mao's program is enough to beat Yu-Na's by approximately 5 points by doing 2 3-A's as her main weapons. And that's what she's got to do in order to beat Kim. Of course, this is all under the assumption that Kim brings the roof down with her LP, which, at this point, I'm not so sure of.

If that were the case, I don't think there is anything any skater could do to dethrone her.

[Nadia01]

If that were the case, I don't think there is anything any skater could do to dethrone her.

Ditto.

I think if that happens, she's gonna end up with some monstrous score, and the rest will be fighting for OSM.

[dgel]

Wow this thread is already so hot!

Yes, and reading it you'd think that only two skaters qualified for the long programme...

[Marrymeyunakim]

Yes, and reading it you'd think that only two skaters qualified for the long programme...

Sorry dgel. :( I do get carried away at times.