Here is the link: [url]http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/showthread.php?30866-Top-Ladies-LP-math-element-analysis-amp-comparisons-to-their-quot-Yu-Na-beating-quot-LPs&highlight=[/url] . It's an analysis of the skaters' current programs, and, for some, the programs they last skated that beat Yu-Na (Miki's 2007 World LP, etc.)
For PCS scores, what Mao does have going for her with the 3A's is that they are at the beginning of the program as well, which means the best transitions into other jumps (as well as her step sequence, etc.) are towards the end of the program and will be more fresh in the judges' minds. I'd have to agree with Mao being more naturally talented... if you go back and look at the programs Yu-Na and Mao did as Juniors, you can definitely see a difference. Things like jumps and extension seem to have come more naturally to Mao than to Yu-Na, who got their with steady practice and coaching... which also has a lot to say about the steady improvement seen in Yu-Na's skating over the years as opposed to Mao's rollercoaster ride over the past few seasons.
LOL When I read your comment about Yu-Na being better shaped for the current system, I immediately thought of Brian Orser (her coach). I just finished watching the first episode of "Be Good Johnny Weir," and while everyone makes all these comments praising Johnny's unique attitutde, they ask Orser about a quote Johnny made regarding required elements in spins (something along the lines of there are so many spins required and changes of edge and position that we get to tired to do the jumps) and Orser responds by saying "You know what, the rules are the rules, and you need to play by them and know exactly how to get points and putting together points. It's all about putting together points. It's math." So if anyone could make Yu-Na a well-oiled machine to fit the system, it's definitely him! hehehe.
For the 3F-3Lo, If Mao had been planning it for 4CC's (assuming the commentators were right), then it wouldn't be too late to put it into her program. Sometimes skaters change jumps at the last minute mid-program if they miss a jump on a combination, they tack it on later, etc., and this is a combination Mao has competed with before (and in the second half of her program! I believe it also was a program that beat Yu-Na), so it isn't completely unrealistic that she could decide to go for it. And it could be the case where she could go into it and NEED it to win Gold, but also be in the position that she will get Silver regardless of missing the pass or a downgrade, etc. (it's likely that Joannie and Miki might not get the scores to challenge her for silver and Mao would have to be terrible to wind up in 3rd); she's also stated she will be "going all out". There's definitely no way she will give up on the 2 3A's, and since she never considered ditching them at any point in the season, "going all out" could be adding that 3-3. Who knows, she could just "feel it" while skating and go for it. Either way, we'll know soon enough
Interesting article... it shows the top 10 Ladies SP scores on a graph combining it with their best and worst LP scores (and everything in between).
BTW, it would have been more exciting if the scores among the top three were closer to the rest. This is similar to the situation in the men's event. The rest of the skaters are so close to each other fighting for the top 4 or 5 finish (I forgot, is it the top 5 or top 4 that makes the gala?), but it just does not excite me as much as the fight for the podium.
Wow this is so interesting. I didnt know that Mirai hasnt scored that high yet.
Last edited by Bennett; 02-25-2010 at 07:55 AM.
Marrymeyunakim, I hope your feeling is right . Although, I still don't like Mao skating after Yuna and with "Bells". Too much contrast and perhaps not a good one for Mao.
BTW, I am wondering when the funeral of Joannie's mother is going to take place.
It happens in almost every major competitions, though I don't enjoy seeing it.
Here are my predictions.
1. Ando Miki
She looked totally lost in the SP and did not have usual height in her jumps. Chances are she will forward-land some jumps.
She appeared way too skinny and made me wonder if she has overdone trying to loose weight. It doesn't help that Morozov was jinxing her by trash talking about coaches adequately conditioning their athletes shortly before the games.
2. Alena Leonova
Though I like her engaging personality on ice, I have seen her falter when she fails to get into her party mood.
During FS of 09 GPF, she botched her first jump and ended up messing up the whole program.
I wouldn't be surprised to see this happen today.
3. Mao Asada
Yu Na jitters might haunt her again. It did her in 06 World Juniors, 06 GPF, and 08 Worlds when she had to follow a strong FS performance by Kim.
If Kim fails to deliver a decent performance, Asada has a good chance for the OGM. (07 Worlds and 08 GPF)
Carolina Kostner might be an obvious pick, but I don't think she will meltdown completely.
She seems to have taken a safer path with easier jumps, and mastered the art of 2 footing as a contingency plan.
Lastly, God bless Joannie Rochette's soul and let her have a FS just as fabulous as her SP.
Agreed about Mao and the possibility of sneaking the gold medal right under Yu-Na's nose.
I think that if Yu-Na doesn't have a good skate, it will be due to things besides jitters. The way she handled the situation after Mao skated was, well, exhilirating and you could tell she put herself into warrior mode.
And I want Joannie to get a medal. Lord oh Lord does she deserve it!
She lost the FS, but eventually won the competition with lead she had from SP and questionable PCS marking, IMO.
A lackluster FS by Kim i.e. two falls maybe? could give a boost to Mao having a SOHL.
It happened before and could happen again.
I think Yu Na will win, barring a mini-meltdown like she had at Skate America. But it is worth noting that Yu Na rarely skates a perfect long program. She usually doubles (or even singles) a jump. She even fell at Skate America. She typically wins with only 5 triples. I don't think any of these mistakes alone will cost her the gold. But the ice is slippery. You never know for sure what's going to happen.