Comparison of pre Olympic points predictions for a clean Yuna and Mao programs

Comparison of pre Olympic points predictions for a clean Yuna and Mao programs

Not to pat myself on the back but let me quote myself from the Japanese nationals ladies FS thread:

For SP: Mao --> TES 40.90 PCS 32.40 total 73.30
Yuna --> TES 44.90 PCS 32.28 total 77.18

For LP: Mao --> TES 70.65 PCS 66.56 total 137.21, SP+LP = 210.51
Yuna --> TES 75.85 PCS 66.40 total 142.25, SP+LP = 219.43

So if they both executed both every element clean and got historically reasonable (but on the higher side) GOE's for all the elements, Yuna would have an edge in both SP and LP. However, if Mao changed the 2A+2T in the LP that she skated at Japan nationals to 3A+2T and executed and got good GOE for it, she would get 141.91 for the LP and her total would be 215.21. The SP would give Yuna the edge.

Click to expand...

I had thought it would almost impossible for both of them to skate both SP and FS clean but it almost came true. I was closer in the SP and that's easier to compare since they were both clean there.

Predicted clean SP score:

Mao --> TES 40.90 PCS 32.40 total 73.30
Yuna --> TES 44.90 PCS 32.28 total 77.18

Olympic SP result:

Mao --> TES 41.50 PCS 32.28 total 73.78
Yuna --> TES 44.70 PCS 33.80 total 78.50

So the differential is (Oly - pred) :

Mao --> TES +0.60 PCS -0.12 total +0.48
Yuna --> TES -0.20 PCS +1.52 total +1.32

My PCS for Yuna was a bit more off because I was assuming historical trending and she did better than historically in PCS at Vancouver. But as you can see she was a bit lower on TES than I thought she could do. She has room for improvement.

I have to say that my FS score prediction for a clean program was much more off.

Predicted clean LP score (with 3A+2T in FS for Mao instead of 2A+2T):

Mao --> TES 75.35 PCS 66.56 total 141.91, SP+LP = 215.21
Yuna --> TES 75.85 PCS 66.40 total 142.25, SP+LP = 219.43

Actual Oly FS score :

Mao --> TES 64.68 PCS 67.04 total 131.72, SP+LP = 205.50
Yuna --> TES 78.30 PCS 71.76 total 150.06, SP+LP = 228.56

If Mao hadn't UR the 3F in the combo and did not singled the 3T (estimated for good execution):

Mao --> TES 75.25 (+5.81 (for clean 3F+2Lo+2Lo combo) + 4.76(clean 3T)) PCS 67.54 (+0.5 for better execution score) total 142.79, SP+LP = 216.57

Difference:

Mao --> TES -0.20 PCS +0.48 total +0.88, SP+LP = +1.36
Yuna --> TES +2.45 PCS +5.36 total +7.81, SP+LP = +9.13

So basically my prediction for a clean Mao was pretty close and my prediction for a clean SP for Yuna was pretty close. It was just in Yuna's LP that I was off by quite a bit. I think it was because I did not take account the rise in the PCS from a complete and clean Yuna LP and 66.40 that I gave in the predicted value was on the low side anyway when you compare to her 2009 world PCS for a LP with a singled 3S and a uncounted final spin. So I should have predicted a PCS closer to 70 for Yuna's LP. One thing this does show is that Mao would have gotten about 11-12 more points had she gone clean instead of making those two mistakes in the LP.

All in all, I have to congratulate Mao and Yuna on their excellent performances at Vancouver. I also want to commend Rochette for her unbelievable courage and strength to pull off two very good programs. That is an astonishing feat considering the circumstances. What a competition!

But you are patting yourself on the back!

Wow. You almost got the SP scores exactly right. :thumbsup: One thing I noticed is the PCS score is seriously inflated here. Mao's 4CC performance was clean and much better but her PCS was quite low. So I would guess her PCS would probably have gone up a couple of points if she went clean and performed better here. She was a bit nervous and I felt it affected her performance.

Addi tonally, here is a comparison of predicted clean Rochette SP score to the actual Olympics score:

Predicted:

http://img42.imageshack.us/img42/294/rochette.png

TES = 39.80
PCS = 32.00 total = 71.80

Actual Olympic SP score:

TES = 39.20
PCS = 32.16 total = 71.36

Joannie got lower TES than predicted (-0.60) because she only got level 2 on her lay back spin but did get slightly higher PCS (+0.16). Total difference was -0.44 so I did pretty well.

As for the LP, she had a few errors in the actual free skate making the comparison more difficult.