The "Future" of Figure Skating: 2014 Olympic Podium Threats (Ladies)

[bekalc]

So far Russian girls have won exactly "0" (zero) OGM's.
I once mentioned at a cafe that Oksana was Russian and a Ukranian dude told me to take it back or he would kick my butt.

Fortunately for me he was like Plushy - not very big - but I made a note to NEVER forget that Oksana and her biggest fans are not Russian but Ukranian.

All of these little Russian girls are nothing new - and historically they never grow up to be champions. Not sure why but just check out the record and we will see Irina is the only Russian trained girl that ever got close to an OGM.

I have my doubts about this new crop of Russian 12 year olds because they still have to grow - and history is NOT on their side. At the moment an American trained girl of Russian heritage is the champion of Russia. I think that says it all.

Until Petrenko, Soviet Union/Russia had 0 male OGM's. I wonder if people were saying in 1988 that history wasn't on his side.. But four years later he was OGM, and Russia began a period of dominance of men that I don't think we will ever see from a country again. In 1997-1998, they had what was by far the deepest men's field from a country that we will EVER see with Urmanov, Kulik, Yagudin, and Plushenko fighting for spots.

For a long time in their history, they put their focus on pairs/dance, not singles. They've had a few world champions in ladies, and I think that people forget that the reason the Russian juniors probably in the late 1990s didn't last so long was they came up in a period where Irina/Maria were doing well on the Senior scene so it was difficult for them to even make it into Senior competition.

And as for their issues now, I think it has more to do with their entire figure skating system collapsed and they are rebuilding. However, the fact is right now, Russia has a lot of young talent in ladies. They probably have the deepest junior field right now and that bodes well for them. Its not like they have just one or two names that they are pining their hopes upon. If Korea can manage to have an OGM, I'm frankly not sure why Russia can't.

And there were a lot of US girls who didn't make it either, so it happens. But they have enough junior talent where at least one will break through. Whether they will be OGM is questionable, but whether they are going to have some senior success, I have really no doubt. There's just way to much talent there.

[silverlake22]

Amanda Dobbs (if she decides to do singles)

Yeah, she is a beautiful skater too, but she needs to get more technical content if she wants to be competitive with the top guns.

And I think the last poster was right about Russia, there are about two dozen (no joke) young Russian girls who are exceptionally talented right now. Chances are all of them won't go down the tubes and I bet a few of them could really be competitive on the senior level with the right coaching and packaging. Polina Shelepen and Elizaveta are such talented jumpers and Anna Ovcharova has a real gift with her musicality and attack - she has the "it" factor. I think Russian skating just might be on the rise

[janetfan]

Until Petrenko, Soviet Union/Russia had 0 male OGM's. I wonder if people were saying in 1988 that history wasn't on his side.. But four years later he was OGM, and Russia began a period of dominance of men that I don't think we will ever see from a country again. In 1997-1998, they had what was by far the deepest men's field from a country that we will EVER see with Urmanov, Kulik, Yagudin, and Plushenko fighting for spots.

For a long time in their history, they put their focus on pairs/dance, not singles. They've had a few world champions in ladies, and I think that people forget that the reason the Russian juniors probably in the late 1990s didn't last so long was they came up in a period where Irina/Maria were doing well on the Senior scene so it was difficult for them to even make it into Senior competition.

And as for their issues now, I think it has more to do with their entire figure skating system collapsed and they are rebuilding. However, the fact is right now, Russia has a lot of young talent in ladies. They probably have the deepest junior field right now and that bodes well for them. Its not like they have just one or two names that they are pining their hopes upon. If Korea can manage to have an OGM, I'm frankly not sure why Russia can't.

And there were a lot of US girls who didn't make it either, so it happens. But they have enough junior talent where at least one will break through. Whether they will be OGM is questionable, but whether they are going to have some senior success, I have really no doubt. There's just way to much talent there.

For gosh sakes - keep away from the cafe I go to. If you dare call Victor a Russian you will get an earful. He is Ukranian.

Russian and Ukranian are about the same as USA and French Candian. Yes - we are neighbors and have cultural similarities but don't ever tell a Canadian they are American. And don't go watch skating or World Cup football and pull the same silliness - or you will find yourself in trouble.

Ukranian is Ukranian and Russian is Russiian. Their language is different and most I meet in my city aka Little Russia don't like each other and feel great resentment towards each other.

Kurt Browning is as Ameircan as Oksana iand Victor are Russian,. Not the same. Period.

Give the Ukranians a break. After the horrors of Stalin and communism they have more than earned it.

[bekalc]

For gosh sakes - keep away from the cafe I go to. If you dare call Victor a Russian you will get an earful. He is Ukranian.

Russian and Ukranian are about the same as USA and French Candian. Yes - we are neighbors and have cultural similarities but don't ever tell a Canadian they are American. And don't go watch skating or World Cup football and pull the same silliness - or you will find yourself in trouble.

Ukranian is Ukranian and Russian is Russiian. Their language is different and most I meet in my city aka Little Russia don't like each other and feel great resentment towards each other.

Kurt Browning is as Ameircan as Oksana iand Victor are Russian,. Not the same. Period.

Give the Ukranians a break. After the horrors of Stalin and communism they have more than earned it.

I didn't call Victor a Russian. I said the Soviet Union/Russia. He competed in 88 for the Soviet Union and won in 1992 for the Unified Team. And before him no guy from that system had won OGM.
And besides are you sure that Victor isn't Russian or at least part Russian, because while there are portions of Ukraine that are very Ukranian and (yes hate Russia). There is a sizable Russian and (mixed) minority in Ukraine. In fact there are parts of Ukraine especially Crimea which want nothing more than to leave Ukraine and rejoin Russia. So it literally depends on what area of Urkaine you are in/from. In fact Oksana has even referred to herself as Russian. Odessa where Victor and Oskana are from, is a very cosmopolitan city with lots of different heritages, where the primary language is still Russian.

And according to this http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_Petrenko Victor doesn't even speak Ukranian fluently. The language he spoke growing up was Russian. Not that it really matters but I actually DID use Soviet in there for a reason. I'm not saying he's not Ukrainian, but it wasn't my point. I was just saying until Victor nobody from that system won, and Victor was produced by the Soviet sports machine.

[pista04]

Here is basically what is going through my mind about Sochi...

The Vets Today's stars, who, if they do not retire, will attempt a 2nd (or 3rd) go at the olympics. If healthy and in shape, they could be a darkhorse and land on the podium. We didn't have many in Vancouver. (10's Cohen, Suguri, 06's Arakawa, Kwan, Slutskaya)
Yu-Na Kim
Mao Asada
Miki Ando
Joannie Rochette
Alissa Czisny
Carolina Kostner

The Powers The girls I see who will nearly dominate the next olympic cycle. They showed in the past years and in the olympics they have the goods, but are growing into consistency and maturity. If all goes as planned, they will have the pressure on them in Sochi (10's Kim, Asada, Ando, Rochette)
Mirai Nagasu
Rachael Flatt
Ashley Wagner
Alena Leonova
Ksenia Makarova
Caroline Zhang*

The Youth The girls who will take medals and a major win here or there, but will be oversadowed for the 2nd group. They will have what it takes to steal medals and potentially gold if others faulty, and could act as a darkhorse (10's Nagasu, Flatt, Leonova)
Christina Gao
Angela Maxwell
Kiri Baga
Agnes Zawadski
Kim Haejin
Park So-Yeon
Elizaveta Tuktamisheva
Adelina Sotnikova
Polina Agafona
Polina Shelepin

All this, of course, keeping in mind that ice is slippery. In 2006, no one expected Meissner to not be at the olympics, let alone to not be in the minds of any many figure skating competitions. Some, like Zhang, are placed by what they could do if they fix some of their current issues.

Im excited for the next 4 years. =]

[bekalc]

I don't see Ksenia Marakova doing that well unless she ups her technical difficulty (like a triple lutz).

[silverlake22]

^^ I kinda doubt Czisny will stick around to try and make the Olympic team at age 26. She just doesn't have the competition nerves or the jumps to get her to the top. Rochette and Kostner will also likely be done before Sochi, and likely Miki Ando if the youngsters start beating her. I think you should add Lepisto to the vets list though, I bet she'll be at Sochi.

Caroline could have a comeback, but she needs to regroup completely and change coaches and really work at her weak points like Mirai did to do that. Flatt I think will go to college and skating will become her 2nd priority and what happened to Emily Hughes will happen to her, I don't think she will likely be at Sochi. Ashley is still a question mark, but I guess if she does college online she can continue to skate as she does now and have a good shot at Sochi - what happened to Alissa could happen to her though if the younger girls are simply better when 2014 rolls around.

As for the youngsters, why aren't Kanako Murakami, Yukiko Fujisawa, and Haruka Imai on the list? I also am unsure if Zawadski and Baga will be able to make the team just where the competition in the US will be so stiff, Mirai and Christina I think will be the next big US stars, and they'll likely be joined by another American though who that will be is less clear at this point. Also Anna Ovcharova of Russia might fare better than some of her current teammates - not everyone has the ability to be as expressive and musical as her! She does not do 3-3 in competition now but she does it in practice, which is more convincing of future success than some of the others considering many of them are still super short and she is not. Also baby Yuna! Orser wants to coach Min-Jung Kwak and if he does I bet she can go places.

[silverlake22]

I see the situation more as:

The Vets:
Yu-Na Kim
Mao Asada
Laura Lepisto
Akiko Suzuki

The Powers
super-powers (ala Kim, Asada)
Mirai Nagasu
Christina Gao
Kanako Murakami
lesser-powers (ala Ando, Kostner, Rochette)
Ashley Wagner
Alena Leonova
Min-Jung Kwak


The Youth
Elizaveta Tuktumysheva
Anna Ovcharova
Kim Haejin
Yukiko Fujisawa

[miki88]

Interesting. But I think there is also likely the chance that the Vets maintain their dominance of the sport in the same way Michelle and Irina dominated it despite the rise of other teenage talents. But then again, Sarah Hughes will always remind me that I cannot count out the advantage a teenager has over the Vets no matter how dominant the latter ones are.

[bekalc]

Interesting. But I think there is also likely the chance that the Vets maintain their dominance of the sport in the same way Michelle and Irina dominated it despite the rise of other teenage talents. But then again, Sarah Hughes will always remind me that I cannot count out the advantage a teenager has over the Vets no matter how dominant the latter ones are.

I think considering that the Olympics will be in Russia, the Russian teens (and I'm not thinking Ksensia Marakova unless she improves technically) are going to have a big advantage. Reports are Mishin is already politiking for Elizaveta. So if they can maintain their jumps and 3/3s, I think they can vault to the top very quickly.

[Moxie]

So far Russian girls have won exactly "0" (zero) OGM's.

Mishin said something really funny in an interview once. Something like Russian girls are not built to be dainty skaters. They are better suited for working on the railroad. I'm paraphrasing and might have mucked up the translation but I thought it was hilarious.

Anyway, Elizaveta looks to be an experiment right now. Although if she's successful people can start calling her Queen Tukt.

[Moxie]

I think considering that the Olympics will be in Russia, the Russian teens (and I'm not thinking Ksensia Marakova unless she improves technically) are going to have a big advantage. Reports are Mishin is already politiking for Elizaveta. So if they can maintain their jumps and 3/3s, I think they can vault to the top very quickly.

Curiously, what does that mean anyway?

[Lilith11]

I see the situation more as:

The Vets:
Yu-Na Kim
Mao Asada
Laura Lepisto
Akiko Suzuki

The Powers
super-powers (ala Kim, Asada)
Mirai Nagasu
Christina Gao
Kanako Murakami
lesser-powers (ala Ando, Kostner, Rochette)
Ashley Wagner
Alena Leonova
Min-Jung Kwak


The Youth
Elizaveta Tuktumysheva
Anna Ovcharova
Kim Haejin
Yukiko Fujisawa

I agree with this list whole-heartedly. Yes, there's a lot of fast-rising stars around the world who will have learned, if anything, from this Olympics that it's not necessariliy just the big tricks that get you the points; it's how well you do them and all the details; transitions, spins, spirals, etc. Mirai, I feel, will be a major medal threat by 2014 if her LP at the Olys this year was anything to go by. Buuuuttt, I see the vets, if they hold on, will be VERY strong contenders, especially Mao. After these Olys... well, I read in an article that she makes sure to keep the silver medal in sight as a way to motivate her to work harder for the gold. And if Yu-na stays on... that's only going to fuel the rivalry and we all know Yu-na and Mao push and make each other better. As long as these two girls stay on top of their game and are pushing each other on and on... the gold/silver is a tossup between the two of them. The super-powers will probably duke it out for bronze OR as a darkhorse medalist (that is, if the pressure gets to Yu-na and Mao and they crumble).

But, this is all purely speculation. A lot can happen in four years.... oooh, I'm already psyched up for the Sochi Olys lols. I can tell it's going to be epic somehow; Russia's going to want to retake its poistion in the figure skating world, Mao, unless she suffers a major injury or something, is going to be back for that gold, Yu-na, if she hangs on for another four years, is going to have to face off w/Mao again (w/Korea and Japan going crazy of course... >.<) and then Mirai and Christina and all the other ladies are going to be fighting for that gold too. 2010 really upped the ante on Ladies figure skate; 2014, I think, is going to raise the bar even more.

[Fabrichnova]

Moxie- I'd like to know that as well. That's a rather loaded statement, bekalc. How much politiking could Mishin possibly do? Sochi is four years away, anyway.

Let's see Elizaveta make it to puberty first before we start forming theories about backdoor deals her coach "already" has in the works for her.

[bekalc]

Moxie- I'd like to know that as well. That's a rather loaded statement, bekalc. How much politiking could Mishin possibly do? Sochi is four years away, anyway.

Let's see Elizaveta make it to puberty first before we start forming theories about backdoor deals her coach "already" has in the works for her.

All of the federations politik for their skaters, every single one of them. I'm highly doubting at this point there's any kind of back room deal. But if you think that if the Russian federation has talented skaters by the time of Sochi, and they aren't going to really push them. Well... Look at how much Chan and Rochette got pushed.