2. Takahashi (All he has to do is earn it)
As for the ladies, do you really think Ando after her super boring Olympics performances will beat Nagasu, Flatt, Lepisto, and Suzuki? Do you really think Lepisto the queen of double jumps will have the SOHL again to finish 5th? Why do you put Suzuki ahead of Flatt given her technically weak SP? Did you see Meier's FS at the Olympics, it was awful, how come she's on the list and Carolina isn't?
Easy answers first.
1. I have no idea if Kostner's competing. I read somewhere (here, probably) that she's giving up her spot to Marchei. That, and I geniunely don't see her being a contender anymore.
2. Chan's in fifth because I don't think he has enough mileage on his program. The triple axel buggaboo reared it's head again after his injury and the program is so difficult that I don't anticipate him improving it enough. My hope is that he keeps his long program for next season, actually, and work on improving the jumps (including that mythical quad)
3. Joubert gave his best performance ever after his poor Turin performance. And while he's obviously not the skater he once was (COP gerrymandering/injuries), I wouldn't be surprised to see him dig deep and pull something off. Despite the fact that he's my least favourite medal winner this quad, I'm rather rooting for him now.
4. I wanted to put Contesti on the list, but couldn't figure out who to drop. The most obvious candidate would be Amodio, but I think Amodio has a leg-up in that (a) he's a good performer/competitor (winning Nationals and the French Masters event this year; his Skate America long program, where he so clearly shrugs off a mistake and continues skating. A rare skill) and (b) he won't be as tired - he's the only major European skater who skipped Euros. For some skaters, it's been a very long season (Denis Ten). In general, I don't have a good read on Contesti as a competitor.
5. Jeremy... Well, 7th would be his best placement at worlds. That alone should give you the reason I'm not predicting him much higher. But again, I think he peaked too early with Nationals and the pressure to maintain three spots will get to him.
6. Ando... her, I don't get. Every time I think I start to like her, she goes and bores me. But I think she'll be more savvy regarding COP (aka, no silly 3-3s that are so obviously underrotated) and make up some points.
7. I have a little crush on Meier.
8. Lepisto.... something about her ferocity at the Olympic error (the music one) got to me - I can see that moment and skate unlocking her as a skater - that attack. She also gets good GOES (her 3t+3t got 1.8!) when she does well. That and her huge PCS
9. Suzuki.... I just want her to continue this dream season, and I think she can. Vs Flatt? Well, they both got UR calls at the Olympics, but despite Flatt's technical advantage, she still lost the LP to Suzuki.
^^ I enjoyed reading that . As for Contesti, I thought he was a pretty consistent performer but he majorly bombed at the Olympics and did not attempt even 1 combination in his FS and had axel trouble, and his score in the LP was lower than Verner's even though Tomas popped like 3 jumps and fell on his footwork so idk. Contesti's PCS aren't that great but he was 5th at Euros and 5th at Worlds last year so I think he has a good shot at the top 10. Speaking of Tomas I have no idea what he will do here - he is more than capable of making the top 10 but he's almost as unpredictable as Kostner. He seems to do well at Worlds though, 4th last year and 4th in 2007, so hopefully he delivers and gets the monkey off his back and if he does he should get better PCS than he has been recently. Again though he's a question mark, I really hope he makes the top 10 but I'm not expecting anything. As for Jeremy, it seems like he either has the SOHL or bombs and doesn't really do anything in between, so I tend to think he will either be on the podium or out of/barely in the top 10.
As for Miki, her jumps have gotten way smaller because she is a toothpick now so I actually think now that she's skinny and pretty her PCS are high (how ironic). But yeah her 3-3 was far from rotated at the Olympics but last year at Worlds she did a really good LP so if she delivers here she could be ahead of Mirai and the others, especially if Mirai gets dinged for flutzy and URs. Rachael is boring but she always lands her jumps and Akiko doesn't so we shall see. I really hope Laura delivers but she and Meier really love those double jumps .
Yeah - essentially many of my picks are hopedictions (predictions influenced by hope), and realistically, even if I was able to remove "I hope this happens" from my thoughts, it's not like I'm gonna get a lot of these right. Ice is slippery! So as a result, if I can rationalize my hopes, than I'll predict it. For the most part. I just have a feeling that Chan won't medal. He'll come back strong this upcoming quad, though.