The USA Needs 13 Points in 3 Disciplines

[silverlake22]

Oh, I'm very anxious about the men. When I heard that neither Evan nor Johnny was going to Worlds, I wondered whether we might be so unlucky as to net an Olympic Gold Medal and still end up with just two places for next year. I gather Plushenko is attending Worlds (otherwise known as his coronation), and so are the Japanese men? There's not much room at the top, I fear.

Apart from Plushenko, most of the top men are inconsistent though. The youngsters like Kozuka, Brezina, Borodulin, etc are more consistent but will be kept down in PCS while Joubert, Dai, and even Oda and Chan (though he gets monster scores anyways) are not really any more consistent than the US men. Also, I think most of us have all but written out Contesti and Verner as contenders for even the top 10 after their abysmal showings at the Olympics, meaning they probably won't be a factor here. Further, if Bradley or Abbott decides to bomb I feel like Adam will put out two good performances, meaning as long as BOTH Bradley and Abbott don't bomb, we should be able to get 3 spots. I mean a clean Jeremy can easily be on the podium, meaning Rippon or Bradley could be like 10th and it would be fine, and if Abbott is off, I think Ryan and Adam finishing 6th and 7th or 5th and 8th is very doable.

[Joesitz]

WOW. Very interesting comments about the 3 places.

I think Davis/White can win in which case that satisfies the 3 placement requirement. (I do prefer V/M, so if they win, the US as 2nd, could make it anywhere from 3-11th places. Not difficult.)

The Pairs are possible, but very iffy when one thinks about S/S, P/T, Z/Z, K/S, D/D, D/B, L/H, filling up 7 places. Can Denny/Barrett and Evora/Ladwiq squeeze in that well experienced Group of 7?

For the Ladies, there is Kim. And the 3 Japanese ladies. and maybe 1 Finn. At least one of the two US ladies will have to squeeze in the big 5, while the other compliments her to reach 13. (It doesn't look like Carolina will be a factor, but hey, yanevrno.

For the Men, It looks to me like Plush is a Shoe-in or is it Shu-in. followed by Dai (in Europe?), Joubert (for redemption?), Chan (ditto), Kozuka, Oda, Ten, Brezina, Two of theThree of the US skaters will have to squeeze in the big 7, and they will have to garner 13 between them. Can they?

[mskater93]

For Dance, SamBates were 11th at the Olympics and at least three teams are not going to the Olympics. Even if D/W finish 2nd, SamBates will likely be around 8th.

For Ladies, if Nagasu and Flatt go clean or near clean, between 3rd and 7th are likely places. Rochette will not get homer scores here which means if Nagasu skates well and gets a similar score to the Olympics in her LP and a little higher in the SP, she could get 3rd. Flatt is least likely to bomb and will be 5-7th likely. Lepisto had her good skate for the year and is inconsistent, no one else other than Kim, Ando, Rochette, and Asada are likely top 5 finishers but one is likely to bomb badly (my bet is on Rochette or Ando).

For Men, if Abbott can skate a program that's even 90% of what he put out at Nationals, Plushy's coronation could be put on hold as he's the man with the most. He has to hold it all together, which is always a big if. Abbott medaling is a distinct possibility if he doesn't bomb his SP and then Rippon or Bradley only need to make the top 10 which is doable, especially with the inconsistencies of Joubert (headcase right now), Chan's 3A (don't tell me he's got it because he can't land 3 in a competition in programs). Kozuka needs more seasoning, Oda needs to get past his happy to be here attitude, Ten needs a lot more speed, especially on the flow out of his jumps since they looked like they came to a dead stop on the landing, Brezina needs more seasoning...Take out the guys that aren't going to Worlds who were at the Olympics and Jeremy with all the issues goes into Worlds 6th after having messy skates (9th overall at the Olympics, 1, 4, 6 not going to Worlds)...

[janetfan]

For Men, if Abbott can skate a program that's even 90% of what he put out at Nationals, Plushy's coronation could be put on hold as he's the man with the most. He has to hold it all together, which is always a big if. Abbott medaling is a distinct possibility if he doesn't bomb his SP and then Rippon or Bradley only need to make the top 10 which is doable, especially with the inconsistencies of Joubert (headcase right now), Chan's 3A (don't tell me he's got it because he can't land 3 in a competition in programs). Kozuka needs more seasoning, Oda needs to get past his happy to be here attitude, Ten needs a lot more speed, especially on the flow out of his jumps since they looked like they came to a dead stop on the landing, Brezina needs more seasoning...Take out the guys that aren't going to Worlds who were at the Olympics and Jeremy with all the issues goes into Worlds 6th after having messy skates (9th overall at the Olympics, 1, 4, 6 not going to Worlds)...

I agree that Jeremy seems to be the key right now for the USA men.
I have no idea how he will skate but if he is close to his best he should medal.
Ryan and Adam not so sure of either - but Adam's confidence should be good after 4CC.

I hope Ryan has a good showing and enjoys himself. It would make me happy for him to land three quads just to keep a certain skater and coach from a repeat of their behavior in Vancouver.

[silverlake22]

For Dance, SamBates were 11th at the Olympics and at least three teams are not going to the Olympics. Even if D/W finish 2nd, SamBates will likely be around 8th.

For Ladies, if Nagasu and Flatt go clean or near clean, between 3rd and 7th are likely places. Rochette will not get homer scores here which means if Nagasu skates well and gets a similar score to the Olympics in her LP and a little higher in the SP, she could get 3rd. Flatt is least likely to bomb and will be 5-7th likely. Lepisto had her good skate for the year and is inconsistent, no one else other than Kim, Ando, Rochette, and Asada are likely top 5 finishers but one is likely to bomb badly (my bet is on Rochette or Ando).

For Men, if Abbott can skate a program that's even 90% of what he put out at Nationals, Plushy's coronation could be put on hold as he's the man with the most. He has to hold it all together, which is always a big if. Abbott medaling is a distinct possibility if he doesn't bomb his SP and then Rippon or Bradley only need to make the top 10 which is doable, especially with the inconsistencies of Joubert (headcase right now), Chan's 3A (don't tell me he's got it because he can't land 3 in a competition in programs). Kozuka needs more seasoning, Oda needs to get past his happy to be here attitude, Ten needs a lot more speed, especially on the flow out of his jumps since they looked like they came to a dead stop on the landing, Brezina needs more seasoning...Take out the guys that aren't going to Worlds who were at the Olympics and Jeremy with all the issues goes into Worlds 6th after having messy skates (9th overall at the Olympics, 1, 4, 6 not going to Worlds)...

I agree with you, especially about the ladies. If Mirai does 3lz-3t in the SP and gets credit for it, her scores should be closer to or higher than that of a clean Joannie and above Flatt, Ando and the Euro ladies, especially if she skates in one of the later groups.

I also tend to think at least one of Kim, Asada, and Rochette will have an off night meaning Mirai or Miki could sneak into that 3rd position. I don't see Flatt being any lower than 7th, and likely she will be higher than that just because I doubt Lepisto will deliver like she did at the Olympics again, realistically I think Rachael will be 4th, 5th, or 6th and Mirai as high as 3rd and at the lowest 8th if she gets dinged for URs. If Rachael and Mirai are clean or near clean, the only ladies that realistically can be ahead of them are Yuna, Mao, Joannie, Miki and a perfect Caro or Laura, and I highly doubt BOTH Caro and Laura will be totally clean so even if one is, then that would mean 6th and 7th for the US ladies which gets us three spots.

The US girls could easily finish higher than that though, as Miki and Joannie with mistakes and potentially even Mao if she performs like she did on the GP can easily be surpassed by both Rachael and Mirai, and there is a high chance that Caro and Laura with both have off-nights.

I guess Suzuki can be added to the mix of people that could potentially beat both Mirai and Rachael, but her PCS have been low all season and normally she makes silly mistakes in the SP which will hold her down. Korpi and Gedevanishvilli each only attempt 5 triples in the FS so I tend to think even if they do have the SOHL that our girls should end up higher. Leonova has a 7 triple FS planned but isn't as polished as the Americans so unless both girls get dinged for URs I think they should be ahead of her too.

[Jaana]

I think Jeremy needs to take a page out of Lysacek's handbook and skate a more conservative program without the quad. If he plays it safe and skates both programs clean, he could potentially win the World title.

If Jeremy is uninjured, I sure hope that he will jump all his jumps. For some time Evan has not tried to jump quad (except in 2010 US Nationals), because he has had an injury, which quad practicing has caused. That injury was first mentioned already in 2009 Worlds. I have understood that he had a cast in his foot after the skating season ended for him. That same injury came back as he tried to practice the quad.

[blue_idealist]

I think the US has a good shot in dance, with D&W almost guaranteed the podium and S&B LIKELY to place in the top 10. I'm not sure how Navarro and Bommentre will fare - I'm guessing prob. a couple spots below S&B?

For ladies, there's a realistic shot too, Rachael is likely not to place lower than the middle of the top 10, with her consistency. Mirai will probably do the same or even better.

In pairs I don't think they have any hope, looking at the Olympics placements. E&L and D&B would need a lot of implosions from other teams to get into the middle of the top 10.

Men.. this one is hard to call. I'm not familiar enough with Adam Rippon and he is young. Jeremy could be 2nd, 3rd, 9th, or 15th lol - depends on which Jeremy shows up. Ryan hasn't gone to Worlds much, and he's injured but if he lands all those quads he could be on the podium.

[jennylovskt]

Originally Posted by museksk8r
I think Jeremy needs to take a page out of Lysacek's handbook and skate a more conservative program without the quad. If he plays it safe and skates both programs clean, he could potentially win the World title.

This is the reason that CoP has to be changed. Must everybody skate a play-safe program in order to win?

If Jeremy is uninjured, I sure hope that he will jump all his jumps. For some time Evan has not tried to jump quad (except in 2010 US Nationals), because he has had an injury, which quad practicing has caused. That injury was first mentioned already in 2009 Worlds. I have understood that he had a cast in his foot after the skating season ended for him. That same injury came back as he tried to practice the quad.

If Lysacek had landed that quad at the Nationals, the story would probably be different.

[silverlake22]

This is the reason that CoP has to be changed. Must everybody skate a play-safe program in order to win?

No, it just seems that the men that regularly attempt quads are the men that are prone to making mistakes in their programs. I mean think about it, who regularly attempts quads? Joubert, Verner, Abbott, Bradley. They also mess up a lot. Plushenko wins so many competitions because he does quads and is consistent and usually clean. I tend to think the mental focus on the quad makes it hard for the skater to skate the rest of the program in a good mindset - if you fall on the quad, then you are POed and wished you didn't try it, and if you do land it, you get excited and lose focus in the rest of the program, not to mention the quad uses up a lot of energy. Who knows though.

[Mrs. P]

I would agree that pairs is the most iffy, but not totally impossible. I think D/B have a fire in their belly for that less-than-great Olympics short program. I see top 10 finishes for the both of them. But it will take some extra effort to get into the top 7.

I agree with many of you that Men is a big question mark because all three could finish anywhere in the standings.

Ice Dance shouldn't be a problem.

I think Mirai and Rachael gave their notice at the Olympics with 4th and 7th place finishes, so I think it's totally doable.

[mskater93]

No, it just seems that the men that regularly attempt quads are the men that are prone to making mistakes in their programs. I mean think about it, who regularly attempts quads? Joubert, Verner, Abbott, Bradley. They also mess up a lot. Plushenko wins so many competitions because he does quads and is consistent and usually clean. I tend to think the mental focus on the quad makes it hard for the skater to skate the rest of the program in a good mindset - if you fall on the quad, then you are POed and wished you didn't try it, and if you do land it, you get excited and lose focus in the rest of the program, not to mention the quad uses up a lot of energy. Who knows though.

If you cannot stay focused in a program, you need to work with a sports psychologist. These guys (Joubert, Verner, Abbott and Bradley) have been landing quads for a long time, so it shouldn't cause excitement if they do. If you get that excited, obviously it's not consistent and shouldn't be in your program. We have these debates all the time at our rink about program content. We (my coaches and I) have removed my most difficult jump for competition because it's just too inconsistent and I am too focused on it to the detriment of the rest of the program. If these guys are in the same boat, they need to dumb it down or work harder on the consistency.

[ImaginaryPogue]

This is the reason that CoP has to be changed. Must everybody skate a play-safe program in order to win?

It does help to be clean and consistent all the elements you do choose to skate to. It happens to be that most of the quad skaters aren't consistent.

[silverlake22]

If you cannot stay focused in a program, you need to work with a sports psychologist. These guys (Joubert, Verner, Abbott and Bradley) have been landing quads for a long time, so it shouldn't cause excitement if they do. If you get that excited, obviously it's not consistent and shouldn't be in your program. We have these debates all the time at our rink about program content. We (my coaches and I) have removed my most difficult jump for competition because it's just too inconsistent and I am too focused on it to the detriment of the rest of the program. If these guys are in the same boat, they need to dumb it down or work harder on the consistency.

They all seem to get pretty nervous, a sports shrink might not be a bad idea for all these guys. They are soo talented it's a shame they can't always perform up to their potential.

[silverlake22]

Joannie is out, meaning the ladies should be more than capable of getting placements adding up to 13 or less, barring any uncharacteristic meltdowns from Mirai and/or Rachael. They actually have a pretty decent shot at a medal now, Mirai already beat Miki at the Olympics and I'm not convinced Mao won't have a partial meltdown and Rachael has all her technical difficulty to back her up.

[ImaginaryPogue]

The only way USA doesn't get three next year is if several skaters have SOHL AND both Nagasu and Flatt get dinged with UR calls.