The USA Needs 13 Points in 3 Disciplines | Golden Skate

The USA Needs 13 Points in 3 Disciplines

Joined
Jul 11, 2003
The events have to be breathtaking:

The Men. I am hoping for a 6+7

The Ladies. I am hoping for a 5+ 8 but I'll settle for a 6+7

The Pairs. I am hoping for a 6+7 maybe even better.

The Ice Dance. Should not be a problem.
 

museksk8r

Record Breaker
Joined
Oct 31, 2006
Country
United-States
I think Pairs is the least likely discipline to arrive at 13. I totally expect the usual 2 spots. Best case scenario I foresee is 8 + 9.

I think Mirai and Rachael, Jeremy and Adam, and D/W and S/B should be able to arrive at 13 together.

I think Jeremy needs to take a page out of Lysacek's handbook and skate a more conservative program without the quad. If he plays it safe and skates both programs clean, he could potentially win the World title.

If I were him, I would make this my layout for the LP:

3Lutz
3flip
3Axel
2Axel
x3Axel+2toe
x3Lutz+3toe+2loop
x3loop
x3Salchow+2toe
 
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ImaginaryPogue

Record Breaker
Joined
Jun 3, 2009
Ladies: Quite plausible. Japan is guaranteed three, unless there's an injury to Ando/Asada AND Suzuki bombs. I cannot think of a configuration of the top ten that prevents it from happening, truth be told. I think Canada needs to be more concerned about keeping two spots, frankly here.

Men: No idea. I think it'll be up to Abbott, though. Rippon and Bradley are both potential top ten candidates, but just barely, so Abbott needs to podium. Fingers crossed.

Pairs: Doubtful, if everyone but S/Z and V/M shows up.

Ice Dance: Yeah, no problem. Who's gonna be the third US team? Is it NavBom or Chock/Zurlein?
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
The events have to be breathtaking:

The Men. I am hoping for a 6+7

The Ladies. I am hoping for a 5+ 8 but I'll settle for a 6+7

The Pairs. I am hoping for a 6+7 maybe even better.

The Ice Dance. Should not be a problem.

Why are you hoping for a 5+8 when the US ladies just were 4+7 at the Olympics? Mirai could be 4th again and Rachael 5th. The European ladies aren't dependable, and apart from a very on Lepisto or Kostner (who might not even be there), Mirai and Rachael are stronger than all of them, even when they are on. I really don't see Kiira, Elene, Alena, or Ksenia beating Mirai and Rachael. Unless Miki goes all out and does the 3-3 I tend to think the US ladies can beat her too, and Akiko will likely be farther down in the SP and then won't get high enough PCS to surpass them in the FS. If they both get dinged for URs it will be a different story but unless Miki, Carolina, or Laura have the SOHL, Mirai and Rachael will likely be 4th and 5th, in whatever order.
 

Layfan

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 5, 2009
Why are you hoping for a 5+8 when the US ladies just were 4+7 at the Olympics? Mirai could be 4th again and Rachael 5th. The European ladies aren't dependable, and apart from a very on Lepisto or Kostner (who might not even be there), Mirai and Rachael are stronger than all of them, even when they are on. I really don't see Kiira, Elene, Alena, or Ksenia beating Mirai and Rachael. Unless Miki goes all out and does the 3-3 I tend to think the US ladies can beat her too, and Akiko will likely be farther down in the SP and then won't get high enough PCS to surpass them in the FS. If they both get dinged for URs it will be a different story but unless Miki, Carolina, or Laura have the SOHL, Mirai and Rachael will likely be 4th and 5th, in whatever order.

I agree and I thought even before the Olympics that the US ladies were stronger competitors than the Euro girls, although Lepisto and others are formidable competition when they hit everything.
I think 4-5 is very possible and 13 points definitely within grasp. I say all Mirai and Rachael have to do is be clean to get the three spots back. We'll just have to see if they can be as good as they have been in their third major competition in a row. But they are not to be underestimated.
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
I agree and I thought even before the Olympics that the US ladies were stronger competitors than the Euro girls, although Lepisto and others are formidable competition when they hit everything.
I think 4-5 is very possible and 13 points definitely within grasp. I say all Mirai and Rachael have to do is be clean to get the three spots back. We'll just have to see if they can be as good as they have been in their third major competition in a row. But they are not to be underestimated.

I tend to think Mirai and Rachael won't let us down, and I also wouldn't be surprised if some of the medal favorites faltered. The Olympics was an awesome event for the ladies in that so many people gave great performances. Worlds could be the same thing or more of a scenario like 2008 where no one was spectacular. Most likely Mirai won't have to skate last in the LP again at Worlds so that will probably be a nice treat for her, but if by some odd chance she does get pimp spot for the 3rd time in a row, I think she can handle it.
 

fairly4

Medalist
Joined
Oct 28, 2007
joesitz-
i somewhat agree with you

however i think girls should go a 4-7 like at olympics or 5 or 8. but will settle for 6 &7
men might be a problem, i am hoping for a 6 & 7 --jeremy might medal but holding out top 6, hoping either adam or ryan can get to 7th
pairs will get two- lucky if get 3 with a 6 & 7 (i am hoping)
dance-more than likely get 3 ,but can see a 3& 10 or 2 & 11 or see a 3 & 12.
 

Tinymavy15

Sinnerman for the win
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 28, 2006
Actually the dance is not THAT tied up with Tanith and Ben not going. If Davis and White get another Silver as we expect, Samuelson and Bates have to place no lower than 11th. I expect them to be around 8th. Dance is not that surprsing, but they have had weird falls in the past.

I'm not really worried about the ladies at all. Amazing that with only two young girls we have a great chance of getting three spots when last year we failed to do so with three condendors at worlds in our home country. Both Mirai and Racheal have been skating right on the whole second half of the season and both have something to prove from the Olympics, Mirai that she has arrived for good, Racheal to get some vengence for those downgrades.

The pairs....sorry. Not going to happen. Love them both though.

The Men are iffy. Jeremey could either win or be down in 14th.
 

Layfan

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 5, 2009
I tend to think Mirai and Rachael won't let us down, and I also wouldn't be surprised if some of the medal favorites faltered. The Olympics was an awesome event for the ladies in that so many people gave great performances. Worlds could be the same thing or more of a scenario like 2008 where no one was spectacular. Most likely Mirai won't have to skate last in the LP again at Worlds so that will probably be a nice treat for her, but if by some odd chance she does get pimp spot for the 3rd time in a row, I think she can handle it.

She seems to do well in the pimp spot (is that really what it's called? what a bad name). She gets worse scores when she skates earlier, like the judges just can't believe she might be better than the other skaters coming up. I know COP isn't supposed to "save scores" but somehow I think it still happens on PCS.
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
She seems to do well in the pimp spot (is that really what it's called? what a bad name). She gets worse scores when she skates earlier, like the judges just can't believe she might be better than the other skaters coming up. I know COP isn't supposed to "save scores" but somehow I think it still happens on PCS.

No you are right though. I found it almost funny that in the SP Leonova and Flatt got higher PCS scores than Mirai. I mean if they had been the same, I could maybe understand it, but if any one of those three girls deserves higher PCS than the others, it's Mirai. Where she did so well at the Olympics though might it mean that Mirai will have a later draw for the SP and will skate in one of the final two groups instead of one of the earlier groups?
 

Layfan

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 5, 2009
No you are right though. I found it almost funny that in the SP Leonova and Flatt got higher PCS scores than Mirai. I mean if they had been the same, I could maybe understand it, but if any one of those three girls deserves higher PCS than the others, it's Mirai. Where she did so well at the Olympics though might it mean that Mirai will have a later draw for the SP and will skate in one of the final two groups instead of one of the earlier groups?


Well, I do have to say that Rachael has a very punchy SP and she performed the hell out of it at the Olympics. Even though I don't really like Rachael's skating, my immediate reaction after she performed her SP was "wow, Rachael had the most free performance of the night!"
My immediate reaction to Mirai was "well, that was very very good for her first major int'l competition but she was reserved and didn't perform it quite like at nationals." I think she got slightly flustered when she didn't pull off the 3-3 and her performance suffered just a little - but not the rest of her elements, so kudos!!

Objectively speaking, Rachael did interpret and perform her choreography better than Mirai during the SP. She also beat Mirai in skating skills. Probably other posters are better qualified than me to comment on that one. I dunno, you often post about edging and basic skating, maybe you can tell me whether you agree with the judges. I understand that Mirai skates way faster than Rachael. But maybe Rachael had more multi-directional skating and the like?

The problem is PCS doesn't seem to take into account positions, lines and grace, which is where Mirai is excellent and Rachael .... isn't. I suppose those go into the GOEs of the spins and spirals and Rachael does get dinged for that ... Something I didn't really quite get about COP until recently ... Despite the lack of 3-3-, Mirai beat Rachael in TES in the SP!! So Rachael's flaws seem to hurt her technical score more than her PCS score. Totally bizarre, but I sort of "get it" just from an intellectual perspective.

Even so, I think reputation still counts and Mirai might have gotten higher PCS if she wasn't so new on the scene, reserved or not. It'll be so interesting to watch those two at worlds.
 
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carriecmu0503

On the Ice
Joined
Jun 16, 2008
Actually the dance is not THAT tied up with Tanith and Ben not going. If Davis and White get another Silver as we expect, Samuelson and Bates have to place no lower than 11th. I expect them to be around 8th. Dance is not that surprsing, but they have had weird falls in the past.

I'm not really worried about the ladies at all. Amazing that with only two young girls we have a great chance of getting three spots when last year we failed to do so with three condendors at worlds in our home country. Both Mirai and Racheal have been skating right on the whole second half of the season and both have something to prove from the Olympics, Mirai that she has arrived for good, Racheal to get some vengence for those downgrades.

The pairs....sorry. Not going to happen. Love them both though.

The Men are iffy. Jeremey could either win or be down in 14th.

We didn't have three ladies last year in LA- we only had two: Rachael and Alissa. The last time we had three was in 2008, when Ashely, Bebe, and Kimmie competed.
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
We didn't have three ladies last year in LA- we only had two: Rachael and Alissa. The last time we had three was in 2008, when Ashely, Bebe, and Kimmie competed.

Yeah and that was when we lost our 3 spots. Kimmie and Bebe were imploding that year but because Mirai, Rachael, and Caroline were all too young to go to Worlds, they got to go and none of them did well, the little youngsters I have no doubt would have done better. I'm really glad that our top two ladies now are more reliable competitors than Alissa, Bebe, and Kimmie (post 2006 worlds) - they broke my heart too many times when they kept failing to deliver!:cry:
 
Joined
Aug 16, 2009
Oh, I'm very anxious about the men. When I heard that neither Evan nor Johnny was going to Worlds, I wondered whether we might be so unlucky as to net an Olympic Gold Medal and still end up with just two places for next year. I gather Plushenko is attending Worlds (otherwise known as his coronation), and so are the Japanese men? There's not much room at the top, I fear.

On the other hand, I'm much more sanguine about the Ladies' chances. Mirai seems to be on fire this year, and Rachael remains steady and accomplished. Ice dance will be chancy without Tanith and Ben (can't someone beg them to stay for the good of their country?). Pairs I have no expectations for, though Evora and Ladwig especially are wonderful to watch.
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
Oh, I'm very anxious about the men. When I heard that neither Evan nor Johnny was going to Worlds, I wondered whether we might be so unlucky as to net an Olympic Gold Medal and still end up with just two places for next year. I gather Plushenko is attending Worlds (otherwise known as his coronation), and so are the Japanese men? There's not much room at the top, I fear.

Apart from Plushenko, most of the top men are inconsistent though. The youngsters like Kozuka, Brezina, Borodulin, etc are more consistent but will be kept down in PCS while Joubert, Dai, and even Oda and Chan (though he gets monster scores anyways) are not really any more consistent than the US men. Also, I think most of us have all but written out Contesti and Verner as contenders for even the top 10 after their abysmal showings at the Olympics, meaning they probably won't be a factor here. Further, if Bradley or Abbott decides to bomb I feel like Adam will put out two good performances, meaning as long as BOTH Bradley and Abbott don't bomb, we should be able to get 3 spots. I mean a clean Jeremy can easily be on the podium, meaning Rippon or Bradley could be like 10th and it would be fine, and if Abbott is off, I think Ryan and Adam finishing 6th and 7th or 5th and 8th is very doable.
 
Joined
Jul 11, 2003
WOW. Very interesting comments about the 3 places.

I think Davis/White can win in which case that satisfies the 3 placement requirement. (I do prefer V/M, so if they win, the US as 2nd, could make it anywhere from 3-11th places. Not difficult.)

The Pairs are possible, but very iffy when one thinks about S/S, P/T, Z/Z, K/S, D/D, D/B, L/H, filling up 7 places. Can Denny/Barrett and Evora/Ladwiq squeeze in that well experienced Group of 7?

For the Ladies, there is Kim. And the 3 Japanese ladies. and maybe 1 Finn. At least one of the two US ladies will have to squeeze in the big 5, while the other compliments her to reach 13. (It doesn't look like Carolina will be a factor, but hey, yanevrno.

For the Men, It looks to me like Plush is a Shoe-in or is it Shu-in. followed by Dai (in Europe?), Joubert (for redemption?), Chan (ditto), Kozuka, Oda, Ten, Brezina, Two of theThree of the US skaters will have to squeeze in the big 7, and they will have to garner 13 between them. Can they?
 

mskater93

Record Breaker
Joined
Oct 22, 2005
For Dance, SamBates were 11th at the Olympics and at least three teams are not going to the Olympics. Even if D/W finish 2nd, SamBates will likely be around 8th.

For Ladies, if Nagasu and Flatt go clean or near clean, between 3rd and 7th are likely places. Rochette will not get homer scores here which means if Nagasu skates well and gets a similar score to the Olympics in her LP and a little higher in the SP, she could get 3rd. Flatt is least likely to bomb and will be 5-7th likely. Lepisto had her good skate for the year and is inconsistent, no one else other than Kim, Ando, Rochette, and Asada are likely top 5 finishers but one is likely to bomb badly (my bet is on Rochette or Ando).

For Men, if Abbott can skate a program that's even 90% of what he put out at Nationals, Plushy's coronation could be put on hold as he's the man with the most. He has to hold it all together, which is always a big if. Abbott medaling is a distinct possibility if he doesn't bomb his SP and then Rippon or Bradley only need to make the top 10 which is doable, especially with the inconsistencies of Joubert (headcase right now), Chan's 3A (don't tell me he's got it because he can't land 3 in a competition in programs). Kozuka needs more seasoning, Oda needs to get past his happy to be here attitude, Ten needs a lot more speed, especially on the flow out of his jumps since they looked like they came to a dead stop on the landing, Brezina needs more seasoning...Take out the guys that aren't going to Worlds who were at the Olympics and Jeremy with all the issues goes into Worlds 6th after having messy skates (9th overall at the Olympics, 1, 4, 6 not going to Worlds)...
 

janetfan

Match Penalty
Joined
May 15, 2009
For Men, if Abbott can skate a program that's even 90% of what he put out at Nationals, Plushy's coronation could be put on hold as he's the man with the most. He has to hold it all together, which is always a big if. Abbott medaling is a distinct possibility if he doesn't bomb his SP and then Rippon or Bradley only need to make the top 10 which is doable, especially with the inconsistencies of Joubert (headcase right now), Chan's 3A (don't tell me he's got it because he can't land 3 in a competition in programs). Kozuka needs more seasoning, Oda needs to get past his happy to be here attitude, Ten needs a lot more speed, especially on the flow out of his jumps since they looked like they came to a dead stop on the landing, Brezina needs more seasoning...Take out the guys that aren't going to Worlds who were at the Olympics and Jeremy with all the issues goes into Worlds 6th after having messy skates (9th overall at the Olympics, 1, 4, 6 not going to Worlds)...

I agree that Jeremy seems to be the key right now for the USA men.
I have no idea how he will skate but if he is close to his best he should medal.
Ryan and Adam not so sure of either - but Adam's confidence should be good after 4CC.

I hope Ryan has a good showing and enjoys himself. It would make me happy for him to land three quads just to keep a certain skater and coach from a repeat of their behavior in Vancouver. :)
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
For Dance, SamBates were 11th at the Olympics and at least three teams are not going to the Olympics. Even if D/W finish 2nd, SamBates will likely be around 8th.

For Ladies, if Nagasu and Flatt go clean or near clean, between 3rd and 7th are likely places. Rochette will not get homer scores here which means if Nagasu skates well and gets a similar score to the Olympics in her LP and a little higher in the SP, she could get 3rd. Flatt is least likely to bomb and will be 5-7th likely. Lepisto had her good skate for the year and is inconsistent, no one else other than Kim, Ando, Rochette, and Asada are likely top 5 finishers but one is likely to bomb badly (my bet is on Rochette or Ando).

For Men, if Abbott can skate a program that's even 90% of what he put out at Nationals, Plushy's coronation could be put on hold as he's the man with the most. He has to hold it all together, which is always a big if. Abbott medaling is a distinct possibility if he doesn't bomb his SP and then Rippon or Bradley only need to make the top 10 which is doable, especially with the inconsistencies of Joubert (headcase right now), Chan's 3A (don't tell me he's got it because he can't land 3 in a competition in programs). Kozuka needs more seasoning, Oda needs to get past his happy to be here attitude, Ten needs a lot more speed, especially on the flow out of his jumps since they looked like they came to a dead stop on the landing, Brezina needs more seasoning...Take out the guys that aren't going to Worlds who were at the Olympics and Jeremy with all the issues goes into Worlds 6th after having messy skates (9th overall at the Olympics, 1, 4, 6 not going to Worlds)...

I agree with you, especially about the ladies. If Mirai does 3lz-3t in the SP and gets credit for it, her scores should be closer to or higher than that of a clean Joannie and above Flatt, Ando and the Euro ladies, especially if she skates in one of the later groups.

I also tend to think at least one of Kim, Asada, and Rochette will have an off night meaning Mirai or Miki could sneak into that 3rd position. I don't see Flatt being any lower than 7th, and likely she will be higher than that just because I doubt Lepisto will deliver like she did at the Olympics again, realistically I think Rachael will be 4th, 5th, or 6th and Mirai as high as 3rd and at the lowest 8th if she gets dinged for URs. If Rachael and Mirai are clean or near clean, the only ladies that realistically can be ahead of them are Yuna, Mao, Joannie, Miki and a perfect Caro or Laura, and I highly doubt BOTH Caro and Laura will be totally clean so even if one is, then that would mean 6th and 7th for the US ladies which gets us three spots.

The US girls could easily finish higher than that though, as Miki and Joannie with mistakes and potentially even Mao if she performs like she did on the GP can easily be surpassed by both Rachael and Mirai, and there is a high chance that Caro and Laura with both have off-nights.

I guess Suzuki can be added to the mix of people that could potentially beat both Mirai and Rachael, but her PCS have been low all season and normally she makes silly mistakes in the SP which will hold her down. Korpi and Gedevanishvilli each only attempt 5 triples in the FS so I tend to think even if they do have the SOHL that our girls should end up higher. Leonova has a 7 triple FS planned but isn't as polished as the Americans so unless both girls get dinged for URs I think they should be ahead of her too.
 
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