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Thread: The USA Needs 13 Points in 3 Disciplines

  1. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by ImaginaryPogue View Post
    The only way USA doesn't get three next year is if several skaters have SOHL AND both Nagasu and Flatt get dinged with UR calls.
    I agree. It all depends on Europe, as usual.

  2. #32
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    I didnt know weir wouldnt go to the worlds.

    anyway, for the ladies discipline, its sure that american get 3 spots.

    but for the mens, its hard for americans.

    in order for american men to get 13 points,

    abott; do the best and land a quad!

    adam; dont make any mistakes.

    at least, adam needs to beat tomas or brezina.

  3. #33
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    In pairs I think Denney/Barrett will have a stronger showing that at the Olympics. They kept the fact that Barrett was injured quiet but he was really struggling.

  4. #34
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    The 13 points/3 teams breakdown

    Men

    Probable: Japan (ice is slippery, otherwise they'd be a lock. Frankly, they need someone to withdraw and another to utterly bomb, and even then I wouldn't bet on it).

    Good Chance Indeed: USA (Abbott needs to medal. If he doesn't, I wouldn't count on it - I can't imagine Rippon or Bradley cracking the single digits)

    Darkhorse: France/Czech/Russia (Doubtful, but I wouldn't completely ignore them)

    Ladies

    Probable: Japan, USA

    Darkhorse: Finland (requiring to SOHLs and unfortunate skates from Suzuki, Kostner, Meier, Leonova, Makarova), South Korea (wouldn't that be something? But technically, if you remove Rochette, their Olympic performance would do it)

    Pairs

    Probable: Russia, China

    Possible: Canada (Not requiring much, but both teams need to skate well. If they do, they can get the spots, regardless of how the other teams skate).

    Dance

    Probable: USA, Canada (Canada less so, but I don't want to demote it to the next level)

    Possible: Italy (weird, but think about it - F/S are likely bronze medal candidates, so all that means is that C/L need top ten, which is plausible. )

    Darkhorse: Russia (I doubt it, though. KhoNo were kept so far back at the Olympics that for them to leapfrog over three teams would be startling. And then for Bobrova/Soloviev to do the same. Not impossible, but I do wonder if Russia will back either team to the extent necessary to get the three spots when they've got I/K graduating to seniors next season.

  5. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by ImaginaryPogue View Post
    The 13 points/3 teams breakdown

    Men

    Probable: Japan (ice is slippery, otherwise they'd be a lock. Frankly, they need someone to withdraw and another to utterly bomb, and even then I wouldn't bet on it).

    Good Chance Indeed: USA (Abbott needs to medal. If he doesn't, I wouldn't count on it - I can't imagine Rippon or Bradley cracking the single digits)

    Darkhorse: France/Czech/Russia (Doubtful, but I wouldn't completely ignore them)

    Ladies

    Probable: Japan, USA

    Darkhorse: Finland (requiring to SOHLs and unfortunate skates from Suzuki, Kostner, Meier, Leonova, Makarova), South Korea (wouldn't that be something? But technically, if you remove Rochette, their Olympic performance would do it)
    Abbott doesn't need to medal, where there are 3 men, only the top 2 placements have to add up to 13. I think it is possible that Bradley and/or Rippon could easily place in the single digits. Of course, it depends on Michal, Tomas, Samuel, Brian, the other French guys, but if Bradley and Adam skate well, they should make the top 10. Even if Jeremy is like 6th, I could see Adam or Ryan being like 7th. I also think Jeremy will do well here, looking for redemption after what happened at the Olympics.

    How exciting would that be if Korea got 3 spots ?! Plus considering the consistency of Europe, I wouldn't say it's all that unlikely. Kwak had a couple of mistakes in Vancouver so if she's clean I think she could be 10th-12th.

  6. #36
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    Again, the men's field is so deep. Bradley - he's not making the top ten - I'd wager on it. Rippon... maybe. He's seeing people he beat in juniors do well this season (Brezina, Ten, Amodio). But Abbott is so inconsistent, and he tends to peak early. He followed up his GPF win and first National championship with a mediocre 4CC and very disappointing worlds. I think he'll either medal or bomb, and if he bombs, he's out of the top ten.

  7. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by ImaginaryPogue View Post
    Again, the men's field is so deep. Bradley - he's not making the top ten - I'd wager on it. Rippon... maybe. He's seeing people he beat in juniors do well this season (Brezina, Ten, Amodio). But Abbott is so inconsistent, and he tends to peak early. He followed up his GPF win and first National championship with a mediocre 4CC and very disappointing worlds. I think he'll either medal or bomb, and if he bombs, he's out of the top ten.
    Why is Bradley definitely not going to make the top 10 ? I mean, Brezina could finish anywhere from around 5th to 15th, and Verner anywhere from like 2nd to 24th, Joubert if he goes anywhere from 1st to like 20th, Contesti anywhere from like 5th to 24th, so honestly I wouldn't say Bradley definitely will not make the top 10. If Dai has a repeat of his GPF LP, Bradley could potentially beat him and Dennis Ten just finished 9th at JUNIOR worlds, and all those other youngsters are unpredictable. Bradley beat Evan, Johnny, and Adam in the LP at nationals so if he skates well I'd be surprised if he didn't make the top 10.

  8. #38
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    The men's field may be deep, but except for Plushenko, everyone is inconsistent as hell, so anything can happen.

  9. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tesla View Post
    The men's field may be deep, but except for Plushenko, everyone is inconsistent as hell, so anything can happen.
    Couldn't agree more. Joubert, Verner, Abbott, Takahashi, Bradley, Contesti could finish on the podium or in the last qualifying group, I'm not even kidding. All the youngins like Ten, Brezina, Fernandez, Amodio have stamina issues in the LP too so are also question marks. I mean, why do people think Evan's won everything this past year? Because he's the only consistent competitor among the top men.

  10. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by silverlake22 View Post
    Why is Bradley definitely not going to make the top 10 ? I mean, Brezina could finish anywhere from around 5th to 15th, and Verner anywhere from like 2nd to 24th, Joubert if he goes anywhere from 1st to like 20th, Contesti anywhere from like 5th to 24th, so honestly I wouldn't say Bradley definitely will not make the top 10. If Dai has a repeat of his GPF LP, Bradley could potentially beat him and Dennis Ten just finished 9th at JUNIOR worlds, and all those other youngsters are unpredictable. Bradley beat Evan, Johnny, and Adam in the LP at nationals so if he skates well I'd be surprised if he didn't make the top 10.
    I don't think he'll get the PCS to do it. I know he's got the quads, but his lutz and axel are both iffy. The fact that he beat those three isn't all that noteworthy as I expect internationally he wouldn't have if they skated closer to their potential.

    Denis Ten competes too much. Period. He's gone from Senior Grand Prix Events to 4CC to the Olympics to junior and now senior worlds. I don't expect him to do well.

    As people point out, men's is deep and inconsistent. I'm just going with what my survey says. If I'm wrong... well, I've been wrong before and the world still turns.... :D

  11. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by ImaginaryPogue View Post
    I don't think he'll get the PCS to do it. I know he's got the quads, but his lutz and axel are both iffy. The fact that he beat those three isn't all that noteworthy as I expect internationally he wouldn't have if they skated closer to their potential.

    Denis Ten competes too much. Period. He's gone from Senior Grand Prix Events to 4CC to the Olympics to junior and now senior worlds. I don't expect him to do well.

    As people point out, men's is deep and inconsistent. I'm just going with what my survey says. If I'm wrong... well, I've been wrong before and the world still turns.... :D
    Bradley could potentially beat Abbott if Jeremy has his usual worlds meltdown. Realistically there are about 4 people guarunteed to beat Bradley - Plushenko, Oda, Kozuka, Chan. Beyond that it's anyone's game, I mean Abbott, Verner, and Takahashi are probably the best skaters at the event but no one knows if they will be 2nd or 5th or 20th, or 4th in the SP and then 20th in the FS or vice versa. Lysacek, Weir, Lambiel won't be there and I think Joubert's ego has been pretty badly bruised so I remain skeptical of his chances here. The little boys tend to do well but usually make a few mistakes and will likely get lower PCS than Bradley. Where it will be Bradley's last competition I have the feeling he might do well here.

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    Be ware, just when almost everybody tends to write him down or even write him off, Jeremy Abbott may rise up unexpectedly like this year's Nationals.

    The critical thing is his mind set. Jeremy's been on Nationals pewter's place for two years in a roll. Then he decided that was enough. It was time to stand up. The third year, he won the Nationals. This year was his only chance to be an Olympian - his dream since he was four years old. He got it by focusing his every possible effort into it. Then I assume that he relaxed a little bit. So he didn't get to focus enough at the Olympics.

    He's been on the biggest world stage for three years. In the last two times Worlds, he both got 11th place. This year at the Olympics, he got the 9th place. If he himself decides that enough is enough. He might be able to rise up this time.
    Last edited by jennylovskt; 03-16-2010 at 11:24 PM.

  13. #43
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    Mirai -- Olympics were among the few events in which she did not get DG. Judges were relatively generous about DGs in general (except for Rachael in LP, but she got the benefit of doubt twice in SP so that it won't make much difference). But I wonder if her jumps continue to be ratified by different panels.

  14. #44
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    I certainly hope so - he's too good not to get a worlds medal before his career is over. I don't know when that'll be, of course. re Abbott.

  15. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by ImaginaryPogue View Post
    I certainly hope so - he's too good not to get a worlds medal before his career is over. I don't know when that'll be, of course. re Abbott.
    Hopefully soon. I felt his 9th place at the Olympics was a bit generous, his score of 150 in the LP was not really deserved - he made a LOT of mistakes and was really just out of his element. It's such a shame too, because when he is on, he is a triumph, but at the Olympics despite his respectable 9th place finish, he was not a triumph in either program. He should take advantage of no Evan, Johnny, and Stephane being at Worlds and really put his best out there. If he does, I bet he will medal, and maybe even beat Plushenko!

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