I didnt know weir wouldnt go to the worlds.
anyway, for the ladies discipline, its sure that american get 3 spots.
but for the mens, its hard for americans.
in order for american men to get 13 points,
abott; do the best and land a quad!
adam; dont make any mistakes.
at least, adam needs to beat tomas or brezina.
In pairs I think Denney/Barrett will have a stronger showing that at the Olympics. They kept the fact that Barrett was injured quiet but he was really struggling.
The 13 points/3 teams breakdown
Probable: Japan (ice is slippery, otherwise they'd be a lock. Frankly, they need someone to withdraw and another to utterly bomb, and even then I wouldn't bet on it).
Good Chance Indeed: USA (Abbott needs to medal. If he doesn't, I wouldn't count on it - I can't imagine Rippon or Bradley cracking the single digits)
Darkhorse: France/Czech/Russia (Doubtful, but I wouldn't completely ignore them)
Probable: Japan, USA
Darkhorse: Finland (requiring to SOHLs and unfortunate skates from Suzuki, Kostner, Meier, Leonova, Makarova), South Korea (wouldn't that be something? But technically, if you remove Rochette, their Olympic performance would do it)
Probable: Russia, China
Possible: Canada (Not requiring much, but both teams need to skate well. If they do, they can get the spots, regardless of how the other teams skate).
Probable: USA, Canada (Canada less so, but I don't want to demote it to the next level)
Possible: Italy (weird, but think about it - F/S are likely bronze medal candidates, so all that means is that C/L need top ten, which is plausible. )
Darkhorse: Russia (I doubt it, though. KhoNo were kept so far back at the Olympics that for them to leapfrog over three teams would be startling. And then for Bobrova/Soloviev to do the same. Not impossible, but I do wonder if Russia will back either team to the extent necessary to get the three spots when they've got I/K graduating to seniors next season.
How exciting would that be if Korea got 3 spots ?! Plus considering the consistency of Europe, I wouldn't say it's all that unlikely. Kwak had a couple of mistakes in Vancouver so if she's clean I think she could be 10th-12th.
Again, the men's field is so deep. Bradley - he's not making the top ten - I'd wager on it. Rippon... maybe. He's seeing people he beat in juniors do well this season (Brezina, Ten, Amodio). But Abbott is so inconsistent, and he tends to peak early. He followed up his GPF win and first National championship with a mediocre 4CC and very disappointing worlds. I think he'll either medal or bomb, and if he bombs, he's out of the top ten.
The men's field may be deep, but except for Plushenko, everyone is inconsistent as hell, so anything can happen.
Denis Ten competes too much. Period. He's gone from Senior Grand Prix Events to 4CC to the Olympics to junior and now senior worlds. I don't expect him to do well.
As people point out, men's is deep and inconsistent. I'm just going with what my survey says. If I'm wrong... well, I've been wrong before and the world still turns.... :D
Be ware, just when almost everybody tends to write him down or even write him off, Jeremy Abbott may rise up unexpectedly like this year's Nationals.
The critical thing is his mind set. Jeremy's been on Nationals pewter's place for two years in a roll. Then he decided that was enough. It was time to stand up. The third year, he won the Nationals. This year was his only chance to be an Olympian - his dream since he was four years old. He got it by focusing his every possible effort into it. Then I assume that he relaxed a little bit. So he didn't get to focus enough at the Olympics.
He's been on the biggest world stage for three years. In the last two times Worlds, he both got 11th place. This year at the Olympics, he got the 9th place. If he himself decides that enough is enough. He might be able to rise up this time.
Last edited by jennylovskt; 03-16-2010 at 11:24 PM.
Mirai -- Olympics were among the few events in which she did not get DG. Judges were relatively generous about DGs in general (except for Rachael in LP, but she got the benefit of doubt twice in SP so that it won't make much difference). But I wonder if her jumps continue to be ratified by different panels.
I certainly hope so - he's too good not to get a worlds medal before his career is over. I don't know when that'll be, of course. re Abbott.