What happened to Shelepen and Gao?

[bekalc]

The thing is with the whole Russian ladies have a hard time with success I could also ask this question
What happened to from the USA: Lisa Ervin, Jessica Mills, Sydney Vogel, Jennifer Kirk, Deanna Stellato, Anne Patrice McDononough, Katy Taylor, Emily Hughes, Christine Zukowski. Honorable mention can go to Bebe.

For Japan: Jungo Yaginuma, Yukiko Kashihira, Kumiko Koiwai, Yukina Ota.

And in some of the Russians case, a couple of them didn't exactly win as 14 year olds. So I think there were other factors to their disapperance. Plus the late 90s were a time when the Russians had a strong Senior team and so it was difficult to even make the teams then for Russia...One Russian girl of the names I mentioned one at 16. And was 11 at Juniors the next year. So I suspect she may have been a "skate of her life case."

Soldatova

If we ask what happened to Soldatova we have to ask what happened to Meissner, because Julia did medal at Senior worlds. According to wikopedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Julia_Soldatova She placed 4th at Russian Nationals in 2000, didn't make the world team and so she switched over to compete for Belarus. She came back briefly in 2004 for Russia. Her results did go downhill when she finally started competiting for Belarus. It seemed like some of the Russians switched to other countries. I think this could easily happen again too.

[silverlake22]

As for Kanako, she won because of two things, consistency and high PCS,
and also she has the speed & polished expressiveness(as a junior), which are something most of Junior ladies do not own.
She is actually not much older than Russian girls as this is only the second year of Junior eligibilty for her.

I actually agree about Kanako, she is good but I'm not convinced she is anything too special. I mean if you look at the protocol, if Anna had landed all her jumps and just received 0 GOEs for the ones she missed, and her spins scores and PCS were held constant, she would have gotten a 103.20, so with her SP lead of 0.80 she would have lost to Kanako by 2.47 points, and realistically if she had been clean her PCS probably would have been that much higher and she could have won. So essentially, if Anna had kept it together better in the LP, Kanako could have lost her title to a 13 year old who needs a lot of polish (though I still think she is awesome ). Also, when Mirai was on the JGP and at Jr Worlds she got SP scores of like 65 (when she was only 14) and Rachael Flatt got FS scores of over 110. I also think Kanako has the advantage of not looking as awkward on the ice as some of her competitors like Gao and Shelepen who are a bit gangly, and that probably contributes to her high PCS.

So to me, Kanako is the best now, but I think Christina has better jump technique, Anna has better attack and extension, Kiri has better spins, and Polina S has better lines but while they have been not quite consistent this year because of growth spurts and being new on the JGP, Kanako can take advantage of her experience and being a bit older and that's why she wins. I think some of the other girls have potential to go farther than Kanako in the future.

[oleada]

Kanako had the best flow of all the ladies in the competition, IMO.

Kanako could've lost if Ovcharova skated clean, or if Zawadzki didn't fall in the short, etc....IF, IF, IF....

[coconutpunch]

Clearly some of us forgot that Kanako had a 5 triple program in her LP (she doubled the sal) and still scored over 100 and winning that segment of the competition. Like oleada said, IF, IF, IF.

[bekalc]

Kanako had the best flow of all the ladies in the competition, IMO.

Kanako could've lost if Ovcharova skated clean, or if Zawadzki didn't fall in the short, etc....IF, IF, IF....

:lol: Yeah and I think the Agnes and Ovcharova comparisions are silly because NEITHER girl is doing more difficulty than Kanako right now. And its not to be certain that they will ever do more difficulty than Kanako.

I actually think that Murakami is quite special in terms of her presentation, edges and flow accross the ice. As for her future, thats going to depend on whose there and what the technical level is like in ladies...

[silverlake22]

Clearly some of us forgot that Kanako had a 5 triple program in her LP (she doubled the sal) and still scored over 100 and winning that segment of the competition. Like oleada said, IF, IF, IF.

true. I was impressed by Agnes' and Anna's PCS though, they were pretty high considering Agnes has no international resume and Anna is one of the babies of the competition, guess it means the judges must really like them . I also thought the scores were a bit high across the board here, not that Kanako's 106 was bogus but for 5 triples at a junior event I was surprised, and Anna got 88 points for a FS with 2 falls, a step out, a very shaky solo jump and a shaky jump sequence, and an under-rotated 3loop, leaving her 2a-2a sequence as the only strong jump sequence in the program, though she does have a lot of other good qualities. And then Kiri and Kate got pretty high scores for program with their jump content, though they also have a lot of other good qualities.

For now, Kanako has the edge on the other junior ladies, but we will see what happens to all of them in coming years, some could pass her potentially or Kanako may continue to get better and better like Yuna did. I was surprised to see how tall Agnes is, she is actually a foot taller than Polina and half a foot taller than Kanako, it's impressive she can jump so well at 5'6". She might even grow more and be even taller than Carolina will great jumps!

[miki88]

I actually agree about Kanako, she is good but I'm not convinced she is anything too special. I mean if you look at the protocol, if Anna had landed all her jumps and just received 0 GOEs for the ones she missed, and her spins scores and PCS were held constant, she would have gotten a 103.20, so with her SP lead of 0.80 she would have lost to Kanako by 2.47 points, and realistically if she had been clean her PCS probably would have been that much higher and she could have won. So essentially, if Anna had kept it together better in the LP, Kanako could have lost her title to a 13 year old who needs a lot of polish (though I still think she is awesome ). Also, when Mirai was on the JGP and at Jr Worlds she got SP scores of like 65 (when she was only 14) and Rachael Flatt got FS scores of over 110. I also think Kanako has the advantage of not looking as awkward on the ice as some of her competitors like Gao and Shelepen who are a bit gangly, and that probably contributes to her high PCS.

So to me, Kanako is the best now, but I think Christina has better jump technique, Anna has better attack and extension, Kiri has better spins, and Polina S has better lines but while they have been not quite consistent this year because of growth spurts and being new on the JGP, Kanako can take advantage of her experience and being a bit older and that's why she wins. I think some of the other girls have potential to go farther than Kanako in the future.

Under CoP, having clean jump techniques is essential, and that is what I think will hurt Kanako if she doesn't fix things such as the flutz. Seeing what happened to Mao, Yamada should really pay more attention to these things. If she doesn't fix it asap, Kanako will have problems later on.

[wonderlen3000]

:lol: Yeah and I think the Agnes and Ovcharova comparisions are silly because NEITHER girl is doing more difficulty than Kanako right now. And its not to be certain that they will ever do more difficulty than Kanako.

I actually think that Murakami is quite special in terms of her presentation, edges and flow accross the ice. As for her future, thats going to depend on whose there and what the technical level is like in ladies...

Yeap. Who knows!!! Remember the rule for FS has beening keep changing since it debuted in 2005 for World event. And look at how many ladies are doing a solid triple+triple or complete set of triple jumps. Even the great Yuna doesn't have a consistent 3Loop in her arsenol. Kanako doesn't have a 3Loop either but the loop jump is an egde jump hard on the hip so, she may get it under her once she gets older and stronger. Joannie doesn't have 3+3 but have a full sets of triple jumps and took her over 2 years to get the 3Lz correctly done.

But having special quality in term of presentation, flow and edge is always a plus and most of the time, its much harder to learn than the technical jumps. But if Kanako wants to break into senior circuit, she better start fixing her 3Lz and get the 3Loop and she should be in a good start for Sochi.

[silverlake22]

Yeap. Who knows!!! Remember the rule for FS has beening keep changing since it debuted in 2005 for World event. And look at how many ladies are doing a solid triple+triple or complete set of triple jumps. Even the great Yuna doesn't have a consistent 3Loop in her arsenol. Kanako doesn't have a 3Loop either but the loop jump is an egde jump hard on the hip so, she may get it under her once she gets older and stronger. Joannie doesn't have 3+3 but have a full sets of triple jumps and took her over 2 years to get the 3Lz correctly done.

But having special quality in term of presentation, flow and edge is always a plus and most of the time, its much harder to learn than the technical jumps. But if Kanako wants to break into senior circuit, she better start fixing her 3Lz and get the 3Loop and she should be in a good start for Sochi.

Kanako said she doesn't know if she wants to compete on the junior or senior GP next year. I guess where the senior ladies in Japan are such a deep field and the junior ladies are not, I understand why she would maybe want to stay on the junior circuit. However, she has won almost everything on the junior level so she might as well move up to seniors. Also, next year she would be old enough to go to senior worlds, though making the team in Japan would be very tough. I don't really see why a flutz is such a big deal though, most senior ladies have either a flutz or a lip or just avoid those jumps entirely. I mean, her flutz is really bad, but I feel like a slight flutz or lip isn't the end of the world and senior ladies can still be competitive internationally with them.

[chuckm]

I did notice there were an unusual number of edge calls in the Ladies event (18 in the SP and 14 in the FS), and the penalties were pretty severe (-2 or more GOE). Usually, a flutz gets higher -GOE than a lip, because it's easier to take off on an inside edge, but not in this competition.

I also think it's ridiculous to chide Zawadzki for not having a 3/3. This was her first international competition ever. She well may need 3/3 if she wants to make the World team next year.

I think also that the young Russian ladies with their 3/3s may find as their bodies grow and they mature, that it will be harder to fully rotate the second triple. Ando and Asada have both received URs for 3/3s they used to do so easily.

[bekalc]

I also think it's ridiculous to chide Zawadzki for not having a 3/3. This was her first international competition ever. She well may need 3/3 if she wants to make the World team next year.

I wasn't chiding her in the sense that I was saying she was horrible for not having it. I was more saying how do we know Agnes is more 'special" than Murakami. We don't know that. She's not doing more difficulty than Murakami right now...etc...

[chuckm]

I wasn't chiding her in the sense that I was saying she was horrible for not having it. I was more saying how do we know Agnes is more 'special" than Murakami. We don't know that. She's not doing more difficulty than Murakami right now...etc...

I don't know that Agnes is "more special" than Murakami, but Murakami has had a LOT more international competition experience than Agnes. Murakami's first JGP event was in 2008; she finished 3rd, scoring 80.29, and landing 1z(e), 3f+25, 3s, 1f, 2a, 3s+2lo+2lo, 3t<+2t<. Murakami also had previously competed at two internationals (Challenge Cup and Triglav), so that JGP event was actually her third international appearance. Sure Murakami has improved over the years.

But why assume that Agnes is as good as she's ever going to be? Compare what Kanako did in her first big competition to what Agnes did in HER first international event ever. Of course Murakami has improved, but why not assume that Zawadzki will improve, too?

[bekalc]

I don't know that Agnes is "more special" than Murakami, but Murakami has had a LOT more international competition experience than Agnes. Murakami's first JGP event was in 2008; she finished 3rd, scoring 80.29, and landing 1z(e), 3f+25, 3s, 1f, 2a, 3s+2lo+2lo, 3t<+2t<. Murakami also had previously competed at two internationals (Challenge Cup and Triglav), so that JGP event was actually her third international appearance. Sure Murakami has improved over the years.

But why assume that Agnes is as good as she's ever going to be? Compare what Kanako did in her first big competition to what Agnes did in HER first international event ever. Of course Murakami has improved, but why not assume that Zawadzki will improve, too?

I never said that Agnes was as good as she'll ever be. What I was commenting was the comment Murakami "is nothing special" and the idea that she's only better than the current girls now. And the person brought up Anna and Agnes, and so I said its not like Anna or Agnes is doing more difficulty than Murakami right now and we never know if they will so to imply that those two have more of a future is silly.

I wasn't saying that Agnes won't develop 3/3s and be at the top of the world (I actually like her) but I was saying "we dont' know that" there's a difference.

And as for this is Agnes first international competition-there's a reason for that. Just like there's a reason this is Murakami's first Junior worlds. Agnes and Murakami are both the same age, and both could improve.

[silverlake22]

I never said that Agnes was as good as she'll ever be. What I was commenting was the comment Murakami "is nothing special" and the idea that she's only better than the current girls now. And the person brought up Anna and Agnes, and so I said its not like Anna or Agnes is doing more difficulty than Murakami right now and we never know if they will so to imply that those two have more of a future is silly.

I wasn't saying that Agnes won't develop 3/3s and be at the top of the world (I actually like her) but I was saying "we dont' know that" there's a difference.

And as for this is Agnes first international competition-there's a reason for that. Just like there's a reason Murakami this is Murakami's first Junior worlds. Agnes and Murakami are both the same age, and both could improve.

The age actually is something to take into consideration. Last year Kanako was 14 and made the JGPF and finished 4th, but her score was 141.63, which this year would have put her in 6th place at the JGPF. The three Russian girls are younger than Kanako and are better than she was last year, I mean Polina A and Anna aren't even 14 yet, so if they are still on the JGP the season after next, they'll likely be a lot stronger at 15 than Kanako is now if they continue to progress like they are now.

Also at this point Agnes and Anna not having a 3-3 isn't really more telling then the girls who do have a 3-3 because Kanako only has 3t-3t and most of the time the second jump is downgraded, Shelepen and Agafonova have 3lz-3t but again they both often get downgrades on the 2nd jump, and Shelepen has a 3s-3t which normally she doesn't even do or steps out of, but Shelepen is stick thin and Agafonova is teeny tiny so if they are already getting lots of downgrades now, you wonder how those combinations will hold up once they grow up.

Of all the top girls at Junior Worlds, Agnes is physically the most grown up out of all of them. Most of these girls have yet to go through puberty or are just starting puberty so their future success is a question mark, though some seem to have the right body type for skating and shouldn't have issues with growing it's hard to tell because Mirai has always been thin but struggled a lot with puberty last year regardless. Agnes most likely won't change that much physically just considering her age, height, and build so if she develops a 3-3 in the future she's likely to hold onto it whereas by the time some of the other girls are Agnes' age/height they might not have a 3-3 either or may have a rock solid one.

Junior skaters are hard to compare because most of them are different ages ages anyway, and then in terms of physical maturity there is an even broader spectrum.

[chuckm]

The reason why this is Agnes's first international competition is that she just missed (5th) making it out of Junior Sectionals (she was in the midst of a growth spurt). Since she didn't make it to 2009 Nationals, she didn't get any JGP assignments this past season. She was on the JGP substitute list, based on Summer competitions where she was scoring upper 50s in the SP and over 100 in the FS. But she never got the chance to compete internationally until she won the 2010 US Junior Championship.