2010 Grand Prix Assignments

Didn't the top six skaters used to get 3 events?

The ISU did away with the 3-event rule years ago. For a season or two, they did allow the seeded Pairs to have an extra event, but there was controversy around that, so now no one gets 3 events.

chuckm said:

Makarova and Leonova are each guaranteed two GP assignments because they both finished top 12 at Worlds. Shelepen is guaranteed one GP event because she is top 24 on the Seasons Best list; she also won silver at the JGPF, but it is unclear whether all JGPF medalists will get GP guarantees, or just the gold medalist. Agafonova might be guaranteed one GP assignment for her 3rd place at JW (if that rule, like the JGPF medalist rule, is retained). Ovcharova has no guarantees. Gozeva is #50 on the SB list and 50th on the ISU Ranking list, so she is guaranteed no GP assignments. She was 9th in her two GP events, 13 at Euros---way behind Makarova and Leonova, and 11th at Nationals. IMO, she'd be very lucky to get a host assignment at CoR. If the Russian federation wants to send Agafonova and/or Ovcharova to CoR, Gozeva is probably toast.

As for the JGP, the countries who get two ladies in all 7 events are JPN, USA and RUS.

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Leonova was 13th at Worlds just FYI. She'll still get 2 assignments though.

I agree that Gozeva is toast if even one of Agafonova or Ovcharova chooses to move up as they are both higher up on the season's best score list and both girls beat her at Russian Nationals. I tend to think if only one of Agafonova or Ovcharova moves up and the other stays on the JGP, then the one who moves up might even get 2 assignments.

There is also Birukova to consider, she turns 16 this summer so will likely move to senior in order to have a shot at making the World and European teams. She won silver at JGP Istanbul this season but I don't know why she didn't get another assignment. Agafonova and Ovcharova have gotten better scores internationally though, and Ovcharova beat her at both Russian Nationals and Russian Junior Nationals, while Agafonova beat her only at Russian Junior Nationals but she won that event and medaled at JW so I tend to think the Federation would give those girls GP assignments ahead of Birukova, should they chose to move up.

Anyways so 2 ladies at 7 events means 7 ladies can be sent to 2 events each, more if some only go to one event? That is a lot, so even if none of the 3 girls at Jr Worlds moved up (I assume Shelepen will, no clue about Agafonova and Ovcharova though) all these girls could still get 2 JGP assignments:

Shelepen
Agafonova
Ovcharova
Sotnikova
Tuktamsheva
Birukova
Another lady (most likely Shevevela)

So I guess it's not a big deal. I still hope at least one of them moves up the SGP, but they are all so young I could understand if none of them wanted to.

Tony Wheeler (who is Tony_Wheeler on GS) has posted his Grand Prix guesses for the men and the women. Pretty interesting stuff.
The men: http://tony-wheeler.blogspot.com/2010/04/2011-grand-prix-series-who-gets-spots_21.html
The women: http://tony-wheeler.blogspot.com/2010/04/2011-grand-prix-series-who-gets-spots.html

Mrs. P said:

Tony Wheeler (who is Tony_Wheeler on GS) has posted his Grand Prix guesses for the men and the women. Pretty interesting stuff.
The men: http://tony-wheeler.blogspot.com/2010/04/2011-grand-prix-series-who-gets-spots_21.html
The women: http://tony-wheeler.blogspot.com/2010/04/2011-grand-prix-series-who-gets-spots.html

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I like Tony's guesses especially for the Ladies, but for the Men, it seems he has chosen only two Americans plus Evan if he continues skating. Surely Mroz and Messing could be added since US is a host country.

I actually have the following:

Jeremy Abbott - 2 events
Adam Rippon - 2 events
Evan Lysacek - 2 events
Brandon Mroz - 2 events
Ross Miner - 2 events
Richard Dornbush - 2 events
Grant Hochstein - 2 events
Stephen Carriere - 1 event
Armin Mahbanoozadeh - 1 event

And Ryan Bradley said he'd retire at the end of the year, but if he chooses to continue, he will probably get 2 events as well. That means there would be the maximum three men at every event. I don't think Johnny Weir is going to compete anymore, and I would be surprised if Evan Lysacek does the Grand Prix next year, so that frees up more spots, although not necessarily to US men. I have a feeling Keegan Messing will stay on the JGP.

Again, these are only my guesses. In no ways is it anything official..

Summary of season stats for these 6 US guys "on the bubble" (only Miner is guaranteed 1 GP based on last season's selection rules -- the 2010-11 ISU Grand Prix Announcement with the selections rules has not yet been published):

Miner - 1st in JGP Lake Placid; 2nd in JGP Croatia; 3rd at JGP Final (#35 SB score of 196.09); WD from Nationals (would have been Sr. debut) & Jr. Worlds due to injury; #39 in World Standings.

Hochstein - 2nd in JGP Hungary; 4th in JGP Germany; 5th at JGP Final; 7th at Nationals (Sr. debut); 5th at Jr. Worlds (#38 SB score of 194.30); #33 in World Standings.

Mahbanoozadeh - 11th at Cup of China; 9th at Skate Canada (#42 SB Sr. score of 186.48); 8th at Nationals (Sr. debut); 10th at Jr. Worlds; #45 in World Standings.

Messing - 6th in JGP Poland (skated with an injury); 9th at Nationals (Sr. debut); 4th at Jr. Worlds (#34 SB score of 197.03); #38 in World Standings; one more year of ISU junior eligibility in 2010-11.

Dornbush - 1st in JGP Hungary; 5th in JGP Germany; 4th at JGP Final (#39 SB score of 191.80); 11th at Nationals (Sr. debut); #31 in World Standings; one more year of ISU junior eligibility in 2010-11.

Carriere - 3rd at Finlandia Trophy; 6th at Cup of China (#37 SB Sr. score of 195.08); 8th at Skate Canada; WD from Nationals after SP; #35 in World Standings.

I believe Fumie will get 2 assignments ......

No more chance for Nana or Aki ?

Mrs. P said:

Tony Wheeler (who is Tony_Wheeler on GS) has posted his Grand Prix guesses for the men and the women. Pretty interesting stuff.
The men: http://tony-wheeler.blogspot.com/2010/04/2011-grand-prix-series-who-gets-spots_21.html
The women: http://tony-wheeler.blogspot.com/2010/04/2011-grand-prix-series-who-gets-spots.html

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Interesting. I agree with most of it, but in the ladies I'm not sure Gilles will get 2 events, I'd guess only 1, Maxwell might not get any where she didn't compete at nationals and if she does it will likely be SA. Is Akiko retiring? That was another thing I thought of. Imai may just get one event, NHK, where there are so many good Japanese ladies. Also for Russia, Ovcharova and Birukova should also be considered. If either moves up they are likely to at least get a host spot at COR, and potentially another event, especially Anna, she's done well on the JGP all season and at Jr Worlds and is ranked 33rd in the world.

sorcerer said:

No more chance for Nana or Aki ?

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Only as a host pick for NHK Trophy, as neither have an ISU 2009-10 Season Best score from 2009 Finlandia Trophy (because Senior B scores are not counted by the ISU). Nana Takeda was 13th at Finlandia and 9th at Nationals, while Aki Sawada was 11th at Finlandia and 19th at Nationals.

Sylvia said:

Only as a host pick for NHK Trophy, as neither have an ISU 2009-10 Season Best score from 2009 Finlandia Trophy (because Senior B scores are not counted by the ISU). ...

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Thank you, you're right.
The only Japanese skaters who can get assignments (let aside host picks) are :
Mao (2), Miki (2), Akiko (2), Kanako (1), Haruka Imai, Fumie, Yuki Nishino.

The numbers in brackets are the guaranteed assignments.
Only 7 Japanese ladies, plus yes maybe host picks at NHK.

Japan usually gets 12 to 13 slots so most likely two of them (probably Haruka and Yuki?) will get only one assignment if the host pick at NHK will be 1 adding to the seven above.
If there are no additional picks to the 7 ladies at NHK, then Haruka might get 2 assignments.

What about the US ladies? Can they keep the usual 16 to 18 spots this year?
I thought 18 last year was awfully a lot in proportion to those ladies' previous results.

sorcerer said:

Thank you, you're right.
The only Japanese skaters who can get assignments (let aside host picks) are :
Mao (2), Miki (2), Akiko (2), Kanako (1), Haruka Imai, Fumie, Yuki Nishino.

The numbers in brackets are the guaranteed assignments.
Only 7 Japanese ladies, plus yes maybe host picks at NHK.

Japan usually gets 12 to 13 slots so most likely two of them (probably Haruka and Yuki?) will get only one assignment if the host pick at NHK will be 1 adding to the seven above.
If there are no additional picks to the 7 ladies at NHK, then Haruka might get 2 assignments.

What about the US ladies? Can they keep the usual 16 to 18 spots this year?
I thought 18 last year was awfully a lot in proportion to those ladies' previous results.

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Not really. Maybe the U.S. Ladies did not have a great showing relative to the major world events, but I think they all show reasons to get their spots.

Let's look at the 2009 GP list
Alissa Czisny — While not the best showing in 2009 Words, she did place in the top 12, automatically qualifying her for 2 spots. (COR/SC)
Rachael Flatt — She finished in the Top 5, qualifying her for 2 spots. She was also a host pick. (COC/SA)
Ashley Wagner — She was ranked in the top 24 in the ISU World Standings as of April 2009. She was also a Jr. Worlds medalist. She also finished fourth in both her GP events last year. She got two spots (COR/NHK)
Mirai Nagasu — Despite a bad season, Mirai still was ranked in the top 24 in the ISU World standings. 2 events (COC/SC)
Caroline Zhang — Top 10 ISU World Standing, strong 4CC finish (4th just behind Yuna, Joannie and Mao). Also a medal during the 2008 GP circuit 2 events (TEB/SC)
Alexe Giles — Ranked 30th, which made it harder for automatic picks. But she was a host pick for Skate America and was likely rewarded for being a JGPF medalist in 2008. (TEB/SA)
Sasha Cohen — Despite not competitng she got two spots for the obvious reason — she was the reigning Olympic silver medalist. * And she was a host pick until she withdrew. (TEB/SA)
Kimmie Meissner — Despite being practically non-existent in the 2008-2009 season, she still was ranked #23. * (COR/NHK)
Total = 16 spots

Remainder of the spots went to:
Bebe Liang — Ranked 31st in ISU standings. OK GP appearances last year (top half for both of her 2008 GP events).
Emily Hughes — host pick as a replacement for Sasha Cohen's withdrawal*. (SA)
Becky Berswell — Ranked 39th in ISU standings. She was 2008 JGPF winner but was not sent to Junior Worlds due to a poor showing in Nationals. But her past JGP success earned her an event. (NHK)
Total 3

Event reps
SA=3
SC=3
COC=3
COR=2 (3)
NHK=2 (3)
TEB=2 (3)
Total =15 (18)*

*Technically the U.S. had a total of 18 spots. But since there was no replacement for TEB and ,as Sylvia said, Kimmie Meissner also got two spots, but withdrew due to injury. That docked number of Americans in GP events down to 15.

ETA: to add Sylvia's point to the mix.

Also, Kimmie Meissner was originally invited to Cup of Russia and NHK Trophy but withdrew from both due to injury.

Mrs. P said:

Not really. Maybe the U.S. Ladies did not have a great showing relative to the major world events, but I think they all show reasons to get their spots.
...
Ashley Wagner — She was ranked in the top 24 in the ISU World Standings as of April 2009. She was also a Jr. Worlds medalist. She also finished fourth in both her GP events last year. She got two spots (COR/NHK)
Mirai Nagasu — Despite a bad season, Mirai still was ranked in the top 24 in the ISU World standings. 2 events (COC/SC)
Caroline Zhang — Top 10 ISU World Standing, strong 4CC finish (4th just behind Yuna, Joannie and Mao). Also a medal during the 2008 GP circuit 2 events (TEB/SC)
Alexe Giles — Ranked 30th, which made it harder for automatic picks. But she was a host pick for Skate America and was likely rewarded for being a JGPF medalist in 2008. (TEB/SA)
Sasha Cohen — Despite not competitng she got two spots for the obvious reason — she was the reigning Olympic silver medalist. * And she was a host pick until she withdrew. (TEB/SA)
Kimmie Meissner — Despite being practically non-existent in the 2008-2009 season, she still was ranked #23. * (COR/NHK)
Total = 16 spots.
....

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Thank you Mrs. P for the details.

However, IIUnderstandC, "top 24" only means 1 guarantee. (Sasha 0)
4 of these 6 ladies above were guaranteed 1 spot each, and Alexe and Sasha had 1 host pick each so all of these 6 were invited as to their second assignment.
Plus Bebe was invited to CoC, and Becky to NHK, so 8 invited spots.

Where as Japan added 2 host picks but could only add 1 invited spot and ended up with 11 spots.

USA didin't get 18 spots mechanically, perhaps some "national frame" exists ?
And my main question was :
Can they keep the usual 16 to 18 spots this year?

ETA: Please note that the number of invited spots results in next season's "invitability" so to say .... To be able to perform in GPs means to the skaters better possibility of raising their seasonal bests.

sorcerer said:

Thank you Mrs. P for the details.

However, IIUnderstandC, "top 24" only means 1 guarantee. (Sasha 0)
5 of these 6 ladies above were guaranteed 1 spot each, and Alexe was a host pick and 4 were invited as to their second assignment.
Plus Sasha was invited to TEB, Bebe to CoC, and Becky to NHK, so 7 invited spots.

Where as Japan added 2 host picks but could only add 1 invited spot and ended up with 11 spots.

USA didin't get 18 spots mechanically, perhaps some "national frame" exists ?
And my main question was :
Can they keep the usual 16 to 18 spots this year?

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Clearly was part of it is political. USFSA has a lot of pull obviously. All I did was provide some context to what factors may have resulted in an invite.

To answer your original question. I say yes. See this:

Mirai — Top 12 at Worlds (7th), #4 on season's best score list. — 2 events automatic
Rachael — Top 12 at Worlds (9th), #7 on seaoson's best socre list — 2 events automatic
Ashley — Made GPF this year (4th), #16 on season's best list and #17 ranking — likely 2 events
Caroline Z — 4CC Medalist (3rd) , #20 on season's best list and #12 ranking — 2 events likely
Alissa C. — SC medalist, #18 season's best score and #16 ranking — 1, maybe 2 events
Amanda D — Strong 4CC placement (4th), #23 on season's best list. #30 ranking — 1 event
Agnes Z — Junior world silver medalist, #25 on season's best list and #53 ranking — 1 event
Christina — Medaled at JGPF, #32 on season's best list and #36 on ranking — at least 1 event,
Angela Maxwell — strong JGP season, (2 medals) made JGPF. — 1 event likely
Alexe G. — decent finish at TEB, #31 season best — 1 event likely

Yes, 10 automatic spots plus whatever number USFSA can make other federations invite US ladies.

So other countries better polish their political tactics.

BTW I made a mistake in my last post so I edited it.
What Mrs. P quoted as my post has an error in it.

sorcerer said:

Yes, 11 automatic spots plus whatever number USFSA can make other federations invite US ladies.

So other countries better polish their political tactics.

BTW I made a mistake in my last post so I edited it.
What Mrs. P quoted as my post has an error in it.

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Well you're curious about Japan right?
So let's take a look.

Mao — 2 spots (top 12 Worlds ranking)
Miki — 2 spots (top 12 Worlds ranking)
Akiko — 2 spots (top 12 Worlds ranking)
Kankano — 2 spots likely (jr. world and jgpf champ; top 10 world ranking; #14 season's best score)
Haruka — two likely ( strong 4CC finish #24 world ranking #27 world ranking)
Fumie S — one spot, maybe two (#25 world ranking; #35 season's best)
Yuki N — one spot, (JGPF finalist; # 66 world ranking; #44 season's best)

= 12-13 spots

I again made a mistake in my post "#76", I corrected it to 10 (from 11 which is error).

Well, the tactics for JSF to make the most spots would be to "host pick" Nana and Aki, and promote the "guaranteed 1" Kanako get invited to her second assignment, and to promote Haruka, Fumie, and Yuki to get as much invitations as possible. Theoretically 16 at the very very most.
But probably NHK will want Mao and she will want NHK to spend as much time in Japan as possible. And NHK might pick Kanako too, f'rinstance. So 11 to 14 is the realistic zone.

This is blowing my mind. (not unusual). From what I am reading, the ISU issues 2 spots guaranteed to certain skaters based on their calculations. Then to fill the gaps, the ISU continues its list of eligibles for a total of 12 in each venue.

1. Can those who fill the gaps get more than one GP? and why?
2. re: sorcerer's post #76. I presume the ISU announces eligibles but does not assign a skater to a gap, and a Fed has to "sell" its eligible skater to another Host's venue. Does not the receiver have the choice based on a draw?

(I will admit last year's TEB turned out to be a mini worlds for ladies)

If a skater/team is in the top 24 of the ISU World Standings or the Season Best scores list, then they will usually end up with 2 GP events even though they are guaranteed only one.

We have to wait to see if any changes are made to the 2010-11 GP selection process (publication of the Announcement), which skaters will retire or choose not to compete on the GP this fall, and which of the GP-eligible singles skaters/dance teams choose to compete on the JGP instead. All of these factors will likely impact the number of skaters chosen from/slots available for the countries with the larger number of eligible skaters.