
Originally Posted by
chuckm
The caller Poetzsch-Rauchenbach is known for her UR calls, and she sure gave lots of them in the SP. I bet there'll be lots more in the FS. That will benefit skaters like Lepisto and Kostner who aren't known for getting URs.
Mao won't be helped at all if P-Rauchenbach downgrades both of her 3As in the FS. Because Nagasu is in first place after the SP, she has an advantage over the other skaters in that one UR won't hurt her much if the other ladies are also getting dinged.
Ando hasn't been impressive this season. She's been skating on autopilot nearly all the time, and she hasn't been consistent with her jumps, either. Being 15 points behind Nagasu, 13 behind Asada and 5 behind Kim won't help her chances a bit.
It's hard to read Flatt at this competition. Did she know about the UR-happy caller, and is that why she left out her 3/3 in the SP? She isn't exactly out of it, since the SP has never been her strength, but she must deliver in the FS to have any shot at the podium and keep her top-6 placement. She will have to rely on iron nerves and consistency and just go for it in the FS.
Kim has to bring it on if she wants to defend her World Championship, and she is definitely NOT out of it. If she can deliver 95% of what she did in Vancouver, she could seal the deal.
Lepisto and Kostner have to land all their planned jumps to have any kind of edge, and neither one is known for consistency, especially Kostner, who is far more apt to meltdown than to skate clean. Also, Kostner has never skated well in her home country because her nerves get to her worse than usual.
Phaneuf is another headcase, and it doesn't help that the entire weight of saving two spots for 2011 rests on her shoulders alone (she MUST make top 10 overall).
Makarova doesn't have a reliable lutz, and she's about 50-60% on her flip. She was 10th in Vancouver after being 12th in the SP and 9th in the FS. She won the Russian championship, when the younger girls with the big jumps failed to deliver in the FS. At the JGPF, Makarova was 3rd after the SP, but faded to 4th in the FS.
Leonova hasn't looked like the cocksure lady of 2009-2010 this season. She seems to be hesitant and doesn't attack. Maybe it's the presence of Makarova (who was nipping at her heels in Vancouver) and maybe it's the knowledge that if she doesn't impress the Russian Fed at 2010 Worlds, there are younger and stronger skaters waiting in the wings.
Sebestyen, Helgesson and Gedevanishvili are not strong enough skaters to challenge for a top 6 placement. Akiko Suzuki could have been a challenger, but it's pretty tough to come back from an under-50 SP---especially from the first flight to skate.
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