Ladies - LP

**silverlake22** · 03-26-2010, 06:25 PM

Originally Posted by Mrs. P

You do have a thing for the up-and-comers. But that's a good thing. It forces the rest us to be aware of things.

Yeah, I just think you never know what can happen to a skater. Like Mirai didn't make it out of regionals the year before she won the junior title and now she's skyrocketing, Agnes Zawadzki didn't make it to nationals last year and now she's junior national champion and world junior silver medalist, Anna Ovcharova was 16th at russian junior nationals last year and was 2nd at that event this year and won the SP at junior worlds and was 5th overall, Christina Gao was last in the novice division at nationals two years ago and was 13th at regionals the year before that and she beat Ksenia Makarova at the JGPF this year! You have to watch out for some of these kids, they can sneak up on you!

**aurora100** · 03-26-2010, 06:56 PM

Originally Posted by Mrs. P

You do have a thing for the up-and-comers. But that's a good thing. It forces the rest us to be aware of things.

By the way, just for fun, if everyone skated their season's best here's how everyone would rank..

1.) Yu-Na Kim, 210.36
2.) Mao Asada, 199.80
3.) Mirai Nagasu, 196.79
4.) Laura Lepisto, 190.51
5.) Rachael Flatt, 178.73
6.) Ksenia Markrova 174.75
7.) Carolina Kostner, 169.86

I did some more fooling around...and realize that it is possible for Yu-na to get the gold, it will be quite a feat if she medals if everyone else does a great program.
To beat a perfect, season's best FS Mao, she would need a 139.51, which would be her second highest score this season.
To beat a perfect, season's best FS Mirai, she would need a 136.50, which would still be her second highest score this season.
To beat a perfect, season's best FS Laura, she would need a 130.22, which is below her score at TEB earlier this year (which had a missed flip).

I have a feeling the judges are not so generous in giving the scores like they did in the Olympics, so I'm guessing that she will need something in the 130s if she expects to win or podium if the skaters above her do great.

Of course on the flip slide...
To beat a season's worst LP from Mao, she would need a 106.12, which is lower than her score at SA where she had a whopping THREE downgrades and a fall.
To beat a season's worst LP from Mirai, she would need a 103.28, again lower than her SA score.
To beat a season's worst LP from Laura, she would need a 102.55

Point is all the current medalists are super clean, then she will have to also, but if they are not, there is a little bit of flexibility. Basically, I think you could safely say a score of at least 125 would probably allow her to medal and a score of closer to 140 would give her a good shot of winning.

Thanks for such fantastic information. May all skaters skate their best in LP!!!

**jovani2293** · 03-26-2010, 10:13 PM

Originally Posted by Mrs. P

You do have a thing for the up-and-comers. But that's a good thing. It forces the rest us to be aware of things.

By the way, just for fun, if everyone skated their season's best here's how everyone would rank..

1.) Yu-Na Kim, 210.36
2.) Mao Asada, 199.80
3.) Mirai Nagasu, 196.79
4.) Laura Lepisto, 190.51
5.) Rachael Flatt, 178.73
6.) Ksenia Markrova 174.75
7.) Carolina Kostner, 169.86

I did some more fooling around...and realize that it is possible for Yu-na to get the gold, it will be quite a feat if she medals if everyone else does a great program.
To beat a perfect, season's best FS Mao, she would need a 139.51, which would be her second highest score this season.
To beat a perfect, season's best FS Mirai, she would need a 136.50, which would still be her second highest score this season.
To beat a perfect, season's best FS Laura, she would need a 130.22, which is below her score at TEB earlier this year (which had a missed flip).

I have a feeling the judges are not so generous in giving the scores like they did in the Olympics, so I'm guessing that she will need something in the 130s if she expects to win or podium if the skaters above her do great.

Of course on the flip slide...
To beat a season's worst LP from Mao, she would need a 106.12, which is lower than her score at SA where she had a whopping THREE downgrades and a fall.
To beat a season's worst LP from Mirai, she would need a 103.28, again lower than her SA score.
To beat a season's worst LP from Laura, she would need a 102.55

Point is all the current medalists are super clean, then she will have to also, but if they are not, there is a little bit of flexibility. Basically, I think you could safely say a score of at least 125 would probably allow her to medal and a score of closer to 140 would give her a good shot of winning.

If i'm not mistaken Miki Ando should rank about 5th if she hits her season best.

**aurora100** · 03-27-2010, 12:25 AM

Originally Posted by Mrs. P

You do have a thing for the up-and-comers. But that's a good thing. It forces the rest us to be aware of things.

By the way, just for fun, if everyone skated their season's best here's how everyone would rank..

1.) Yu-Na Kim, 210.36
2.) Mao Asada, 199.80
3.) Mirai Nagasu, 196.79
4.) Laura Lepisto, 190.51
5.) Rachael Flatt, 178.73
6.) Ksenia Markrova 174.75
7.) Carolina Kostner, 169.86

I did some more fooling around...and realize that it is possible for Yu-na to get the gold, it will be quite a feat if she medals if everyone else does a great program.
To beat a perfect, season's best FS Mao, she would need a 139.51, which would be her second highest score this season.
To beat a perfect, season's best FS Mirai, she would need a 136.50, which would still be her second highest score this season.
To beat a perfect, season's best FS Laura, she would need a 130.22, which is below her score at TEB earlier this year (which had a missed flip).

I have a feeling the judges are not so generous in giving the scores like they did in the Olympics, so I'm guessing that she will need something in the 130s if she expects to win or podium if the skaters above her do great.

Of course on the flip slide...
To beat a season's worst LP from Mao, she would need a 106.12, which is lower than her score at SA where she had a whopping THREE downgrades and a fall.
To beat a season's worst LP from Mirai, she would need a 103.28, again lower than her SA score.
To beat a season's worst LP from Laura, she would need a 102.55

Point is all the current medalists are super clean, then she will have to also, but if they are not, there is a little bit of flexibility. Basically, I think you could safely say a score of at least 125 would probably allow her to medal and a score of closer to 140 would give her a good shot of winning.

Didn't Yuna win by some 20 points at the olympics? Somewhere in the 150's? So it is theoretically possible to make up the 10 point margin.

**Nadia01** · 03-27-2010, 12:39 AM

Originally Posted by aurora100

Didn't Yuna win by some 20 points at the olympics? Somewhere in the 150's? So it is theoretically possible to make up the 10 point margin.

I agree. Though the judges are less generous here than in Vancouver, I think they're stingy across the board. Meaning the pt differentials we've witnessed throughout the season are most likely to stay in some form, provided there aren't some major screwups by skaters.

Also even tho Yuna's not in the final flight, if she goes clean a la Vancouver, I don't know if the judges are really going to hold her back in PCS, given her reputation and so on.

Also I wonder how others from the final flight will do if Yuna does go very clean in LP since that's going to put some pressure on them.

**Ren** · 03-27-2010, 03:16 AM

How many hours until the event starts? I'm bad at time zones...

**MikiAndoFan#1** · 03-27-2010, 05:53 AM

Originally Posted by jovani2293

If i'm not mistaken Miki Ando should rank about 5th if she hits her season best.

Yes, you're right. Her SB is 124.10, so if she were to score that, her overall score will be 179.88.

**MikiAndoFan#1** · 03-27-2010, 05:54 AM

Originally Posted by Ren

How many hours until the event starts? I'm bad at time zones...

About an hour and a half until the LP starts. Can't wait!

**Ren** · 03-27-2010, 05:59 AM

Originally Posted by MikiAndoFan#1

About an hour and a half until the LP starts. Can't wait!

Ok, thanks. I'll try to distract myself before then.

**snowflake** · 03-27-2010, 06:05 AM

Originally Posted by silverlake22

Anyone else excited that Dutch girl Manouk made the LP? I just watched her SP and I really like her! She's not phenomenal but she's only 16 and pretty with some nice jumps. She could be competitive on the European stage in coming years.

Yeah, it is always nice with an underdog doing well. Manouk must be thrilled right now, preparing herself for the FS. She and Cheltzie Lee(AUS) were the only ones from the first group to make the final.

Please do your best, all ladies in the last big competition

**MikiAndoFan#1** · 03-27-2010, 06:09 AM

Originally Posted by Ren

Ok, thanks. I'll try to distract myself before then.

You're welcome!

**MikiAndoFan#1** · 03-27-2010, 06:45 AM

Are there any photos and reports from today's practice?

**auser** · 03-27-2010, 07:24 AM

Any one know which elements the skaters have planned ... any program changes for Yu-Na, Mao, Miki, Mirai, Laura, etc ?

**figuristka** · 03-27-2010, 07:33 AM

Hope Cynthia Phaneuf stays in top 10 and get her personal best freeskating score. Would like Yuna to skate quite well, would be a disappointment if she does not at least medal. Actually would like Mao to win i think, after the emotion she showed at Olympics, it would be lovely for her. Mirai or Laura i would like to see medal too.