Hypothetically, how would past great skaters like Michelle fare in today's system?
Today I was just thinking about how skaters like Michelle, Irina, Midori and Kristi would have fared under today's system, and what their program layout would have looked like.
For example, I think Michelle's SP layout would have been something like:
Total base value of jumps: 15.2
(Point of comparison: Yu-Na's 2010 SP is at 18; Mao at 17.2; Rochette 15.2).
Michelle's LP would perhaps look something like this:
3T-3T 8.0 (Michelle could pull this off but never seemed to do so throughout her career; but I'm assuming that given her talents and shift to CoP scoring under our hypothetical circumstances, she would at least have a 3T-3T.)
Total base value of jumps (without added past-halfway bonus): 39.7.
(Points of comparison: Yu-Na's 2010 LP: 42.2; Mao: 45.6).
Of course we're just talking about hypotheticals here, but I really do think that a Michelle in her prime and under CoP would have been able to do just as well, though I suspect we would have lost some of her amazing artistry under CoP. She would get consistent +1 GOE's on her jumps, even more for her spiral and her PCS would be great too.
What do you think? Am I living in ga-ga land?
It's hard to say how skaters who haven't skated under COP would fare, but I believe someone like Michelle would've adapted and milked the system. But I think that adjustment has to happen early in a career, not later on. Even at 2005 Worlds, with rather non-COP friendly programs, she showed she was capable of competing, was 3rd in the SP and LP with decent scores. Her biggest mistake was sacrificing quantity for quality, thinking a better done low level spin should receive better GOE's to make it at least worth a poorly done upper level spin. Michelle at her prime at very intricate programs, but had less speed. Even so, she was still faster than average, and we've seen many skaters slow down thanks to COP. I think footwork and spirals were always a strong point, so she would've be successful in these two elements. With a few tweakings, I can picture "Song of the Black Swan" or "The Red Violin" being COP friendly. Rumors had it her 2006 programs were up to COP standards and she was gearing towards level 3-4 on all her elements.
All in all, I think if 15 year old Michelle emerged in 2005 rather than 10 years earlier, she would've been talked about as a contender for 2010.
Other skaters I can think of...
Sarah had many pieces to be a COP skater, difficult transitions, good spins, spirals, lots of connecting moves, BUT she had serious UR issues which would've been her shortcoming.
I doubt Tara's 3lp/3lp would've been ratified, and that was her big weapon in winning. She did have speed which the judges love, and super consistency. But her flawed flutz, axle technique, and her mule kick may have hurt her. She was a roller skater before, so I'm sure COE in spins would've been her thing. I don't think 1998 Tara would have done well, but if she had stuck around and cleaned up her technique as well as developed ore as an artist, she probably would've been really successful.
Midori probably could've milked the jump points by putting 3ax in both the SP and LP, plus she had a 3/3.
I'm sure there are plenty others...but my point is the top skaters in recent history most likely would've been successful if they were brought up under COP. I think some of the veterans had a tougher time adjusting. We see so many younger skaters with iffy technique competing, throwing out 3/3's or doing spread eagles into 2ax's because that is how they learned. Same for the spirals-Michelle's "simple" COE is still more beautiful to me, with her speed and smooth, effortless change than some of these jerky, grab the blade and slow down COE we see as point getters under COP.
Bona Fide Member
Hmm. I think this can be read as quite a strong criticism of the direction skating has gone under the new scoring system.
Originally Posted by Marrymeyunakim
First of all, the program you gave Michelle is not hypothetical. This was Michelle's standard jump layout, as for instance in the Red Violin at 2000 Worlds and the Song of the Black Swan at 2001 Worlds.)
Note that Michelle's program presents all six jumps from double Axel through triple Lutz in a seven triple program.
Kim's higher scoring program had only six triples, with no triple loop, eked out by three double Axels.
Asada's higher scoring program had six triples in all, no Salchow, no Lutz.
Points, points, points. A balanced program exhibiting mastery of the "full vocabulary of figure skating?" Are we going forward or backward?
Wicked Yankee Girl