Hypothetically, how would past great skaters like Michelle fare in today's system?
Today I was just thinking about how skaters like Michelle, Irina, Midori and Kristi would have fared under today's system, and what their program layout would have looked like.
For example, I think Michelle's SP layout would have been something like:
Total base value of jumps: 15.2
(Point of comparison: Yu-Na's 2010 SP is at 18; Mao at 17.2; Rochette 15.2).
Michelle's LP would perhaps look something like this:
3T-3T 8.0 (Michelle could pull this off but never seemed to do so throughout her career; but I'm assuming that given her talents and shift to CoP scoring under our hypothetical circumstances, she would at least have a 3T-3T.)
Total base value of jumps (without added past-halfway bonus): 39.7.
(Points of comparison: Yu-Na's 2010 LP: 42.2; Mao: 45.6).
Of course we're just talking about hypotheticals here, but I really do think that a Michelle in her prime and under CoP would have been able to do just as well, though I suspect we would have lost some of her amazing artistry under CoP. She would get consistent +1 GOE's on her jumps, even more for her spiral and her PCS would be great too.
What do you think? Am I living in ga-ga land?
It's hard to say how skaters who haven't skated under COP would fare, but I believe someone like Michelle would've adapted and milked the system. But I think that adjustment has to happen early in a career, not later on. Even at 2005 Worlds, with rather non-COP friendly programs, she showed she was capable of competing, was 3rd in the SP and LP with decent scores. Her biggest mistake was sacrificing quantity for quality, thinking a better done low level spin should receive better GOE's to make it at least worth a poorly done upper level spin. Michelle at her prime at very intricate programs, but had less speed. Even so, she was still faster than average, and we've seen many skaters slow down thanks to COP. I think footwork and spirals were always a strong point, so she would've be successful in these two elements. With a few tweakings, I can picture "Song of the Black Swan" or "The Red Violin" being COP friendly. Rumors had it her 2006 programs were up to COP standards and she was gearing towards level 3-4 on all her elements.
All in all, I think if 15 year old Michelle emerged in 2005 rather than 10 years earlier, she would've been talked about as a contender for 2010.
Other skaters I can think of...
Sarah had many pieces to be a COP skater, difficult transitions, good spins, spirals, lots of connecting moves, BUT she had serious UR issues which would've been her shortcoming.
I doubt Tara's 3lp/3lp would've been ratified, and that was her big weapon in winning. She did have speed which the judges love, and super consistency. But her flawed flutz, axle technique, and her mule kick may have hurt her. She was a roller skater before, so I'm sure COE in spins would've been her thing. I don't think 1998 Tara would have done well, but if she had stuck around and cleaned up her technique as well as developed ore as an artist, she probably would've been really successful.
Midori probably could've milked the jump points by putting 3ax in both the SP and LP, plus she had a 3/3.
I'm sure there are plenty others...but my point is the top skaters in recent history most likely would've been successful if they were brought up under COP. I think some of the veterans had a tougher time adjusting. We see so many younger skaters with iffy technique competing, throwing out 3/3's or doing spread eagles into 2ax's because that is how they learned. Same for the spirals-Michelle's "simple" COE is still more beautiful to me, with her speed and smooth, effortless change than some of these jerky, grab the blade and slow down COE we see as point getters under COP.
Hmm. I think this can be read as quite a strong criticism of the direction skating has gone under the new scoring system.
Originally Posted by Marrymeyunakim
First of all, the program you gave Michelle is not hypothetical. This was Michelle's standard jump layout, as for instance in the Red Violin at 2000 Worlds and the Song of the Black Swan at 2001 Worlds.)
Note that Michelle's program presents all six jumps from double Axel through triple Lutz in a seven triple program.
Kim's higher scoring program had only six triples, with no triple loop, eked out by three double Axels.
Asada's higher scoring program had six triples in all, no Salchow, no Lutz.
Points, points, points. A balanced program exhibiting mastery of the "full vocabulary of figure skating?" Are we going forward or backward?
Wicked Yankee Girl
Michelle landed a lot of nice 3t3t combos, which is all you need. Again, look at Laura.
Since she had the whole group of triples, she could easily have gotten her 7 triple program.
3S2t2lp (she had a 2/2/2 when young-I see her having no trouble getting a 3/2/2/ or 2a/2/2)
She also had a reversing camel spin, which now actually gets a feature rather than no credit at all.
She would have had to upgrade f/w & spins, but a young Michelle without a sore hip could have done it.
Last edited by dorispulaski; 04-02-2010 at 08:09 PM.
Note again that this program is not merely hypothetical. This is exactly the program that Michelle in fact skated, over and over, during her competitive career, with the addition of that extra CoP idiosyncracy, the gratuitous 2T+2Lo tacked on somewhere.
Originally Posted by dorispulaski
This program outscores Yu-na Kim's supposedly CoP-friendly jump layout 42.5 tp 42.2.
And now for the bomb. Here is Kristi's 1992 jump layout:
3 Lo 5.0
3 S 4.5
3 Lz 6.0
(She also did an extra double Axel for an 8th pass.)
Seven planned triples, a 3Lz+3T combo, all jumps from 2A ro 3Lz represented.
Comparing this to Kim’s program, again all Kristi needs to do is throw in an extra +2T+2Lo and an extra +2T somewhere, leaving out the last 2A.
As for matching the program to the music, judge for yourself (setting aside the two mistakes at the end):
I doubt Kristi would have consistently done 3S for her LP though. She was always shaky with that jump. She would have put in a 2A after halfway or something.
Originally Posted by Mathman
Gotta love math!
I'm glad to see Michelle vindicated like that. Surely the team of Frank, Lori, and Michelle would have prevailed even in this era, because as you all have pointed out, Lori and Frank are very CoP-savvy, as their success with Evan and others have shown.
I'm also glad you mentioned Kristi. When this thread started, I wondered about her, because she was always in such command of her technique (except the salchow, as I recall) and in fact retained her triples well into her long professional career. And didn't she have a triple-triple in the 1992 Olympics? That's pretty impressive.
Even if those two ladies hadn't measured up in our hypothetical comparison, I'd still love and admire them. But they do. Isn't it cool?
I can only assume MK's strong skating skill and edges would've earned her very high pcs, and Tara would've never won the worlds title in '97 with that 4-min-long diaper commercial.
Yea - that was part of my point. Patrick gets rewarded for his skating skills and CH. Michelle would too and would have better IN and PE than Patrick. And better consistency.........
Originally Posted by Wrlmy
But I was doing a hypothetical - and part of it was that Michelle would be training under CoP from an early age and not trying to change over in her mid- 20's. And especially not with her Dad and sister as part of her team but strictly with Frank and Lori.
Are you asking if she could beat Kim or Asada if either went clean? No way, and to a clean Kim a huge NO. Her base value as you show is lower than Kim and she would never match Kim's huge jump GOE, it would take someone like Ito or Harding in their prime to do that. Asada has a much higher base value as you showed and her jump GOE while nowhere near Kim's would atleast match Kwan's if not exceed as well. Kwan's spins are not better than either of these even if she could do all level 4 spins like both, and if she couldnt (and there is serious doubts if she could) then alot weaker in that case under COP scoring. You can only gain so many points on a spiral sequence and Kim and Asada both score high on that. As for PCS it is hard to see anyone getting higher PCS than Kim at the Olympics for example got.
Originally Posted by Marrymeyunakim
I hate someone comparing Yuna to some other athletes. Yuna is UNIQUE. She made history.
"Under this new way of evaluating skating and expecting so much from skaters, Yuna distanced herself from the field by the overall, endless quality of her excellence," Scott Hamilton, NBC.
Last edited by youtubo; 04-06-2010 at 12:03 AM.
LOL. Aren't you also contributing to the comparisons? Also, you should expect many responses whenever it concerns the Kween. In my opinion, every skater is unique. I can give you an endless list of quotes from Dick Button about how unique and great Michelle was during her prime, but they're just too many to choose from~~^^
Originally Posted by youtubo
Can you compare yourself with anyone?? I think you like to be compared with others.
Originally Posted by miki88
You're being arrogant. Many other skaters have made history, and don't you forget that.
Originally Posted by youtubo