To Seniors we will go, To Seniors we will go...
high-ho the derr'io
to seniors we will go"
Who of the junior skaters do we expect to make the jump to seniors next season? Who should/shouldn't? For a refresher, here's the top ten at World Juniors. Bolded competitors are still age eligible for world juniors. Starred entrants are not eligible for seniors (so no debate). And for me, a rules refresher....
Juniors: singles/female partners - Must be over 13 by July 1, 2010. Must not have turned 19 by that date.
Juniors: male partners - Ditto, except must not have turned 21 by July 1, 2010.
Seniors: Must be over 15 by July 1, 2010
1 Elena ILINYKH / Nikita KATSALAPOV
2 Alexandra PAUL / Mitchell ISLAM (she turns 19 after July 1, 2010, which means she should be okay, as per wikipedia)
3 Ksenia MONKO / Kirill KHALIAVIN
4 Maia SHIBUTANI / Alex SHIBUTANI
5 Lorenza ALESSANDRINI / Simone VATURI
6 Ekaterina PUSHKASH / Jonathan GUERREIRO
7 Rachel TIBBETTS / Collin BRUBAKER
8 Anastasia GALYETA / Alexei SHUMSKI
9 Piper GILLES / Zachary DONOHUE
10 Geraldine BOTT / Neil BROWN
1 Wenjing SUI / Cong HAN*** (she turns fifteen July 18th, 17 days after the cutoff)
2 Narumi TAKAHASHI / Mervin TRAN
3 Ksenia STOLBOVA / Fedor KLIMOV
4 Tatiana NOVIK / Mikhail KUZNETSOV
5 Britney SIMPSON / Nathan MILLER*** (they're in that part where he's aged out of juniors, but she hasn't aged into seniors yet. They might do senior B and/or a GP comp though)
6 Yue ZHANG / Lei WANG
7 Brittany JONES / Kurtis GASKELL
8 Margaret PURDY / Michael MARINARO
9 Felicia ZHANG / Taylor TOTH
10 Kaleigh HOLE / Adam JOHNSON
Random question: the upper age limit is 21, but wikipedia states that's for men. What about a couple like Crone/Poirier, where she's the older member?
1 Kanako MURAKAMI
2 Agnes ZAWADZKI
3 Polina AGAFONOVA ***
4 Polina SHELEPEN***
5 Anna OVCHAROVA***
6 Kate CHARBONNEAU
7 Kiri BAGA
8 Christina GAO
9 Joshi HELGESSON
10 Julia PFRENGLE
1 Yuzuru HANYU
2 Nan SONG
3 Artur GACHINSKI
4 Keegan MESSING
5 Grant HOCHSTEIN
6 Andrei ROGOZINE
7 Artur DMITRIEV
8 Alexander MAJOROV
9 Denis TEN
10 Armin MAHBANOOZADEH
and some thoughts based on that....
1. Denis Ten: you've been to two senior worlds, two 4CC and an Olympics. You are no longer a junior. Repeat that to yourself. You're such a gifted skater (Skate Canada SP) and the constant traveling and competing takes it's toll. Stick to seniors.
2. On the one hand, I/K of Russia are getting scores that would place them in the top at seniors. For Virtue/Moir, that was their cue (and winning everything on the world junior circuit that season, and medalling at their first senior international competition, etc). I/K didn't, but they are so good that it probably doesn't matter. And if the Russian Fed is gearing them up to be the top contenders for dance in Sochi, the more time spent in seniors, the better.
3. How common is it for juniors to do really well one year then get pulled back a little? I'm curious about the Shibs. I was all ready for them to win world juniors, burst onto the senior scene and basically be the Virtue/Moir of this quadrennial. Admittedly, that's probably a little... unrealistic (moi?), but I'm still rather startled at this year's step back.
4. Islam and Mitchell need another year on juniors. They have really interesting programs and for less than a year together, they have chemistry and flair. They lack refinement, precision etc, though. And besides, with the top three Canadian teams blocking their way, and R/H also in the wings, I think they'd benefit a great deal from another year of juniors.
5. In general (though I don't know how much a role this plays), I'm more curious about nation. For example, with the Shibs and the USA, senior dancing won't suffer if they take an extra year on juniors. However, I do think that senior dancing in Russia will suffer a little if I/K don't make the leap to seniors next year. You see the same thing with Japan in singles. So I don't know how much prominence this has in decision making.
Hanyu will likely move, he already won everything in Juniors, but he could stay Jr. too, taking in consideration Japan top field is very crowded. Song goes to GP definetly and with 2 events. Gachinski might move up considering the fields is so empty for russian men. Messing and Hochstein will be praying for some invitations. For Messing the best would be to stay in Juniros one more year.. Majorov should stay, he'll be a factor for the JGP and Jr. Worlds. Ten will compete seniors everywhere but will return for Jr. Worlds, without the Olympics sandwiched in the middle of the season , it wont be as exhausting.
Im betting on Murakami, Shelpen and Gao to move up. Zawadski probably too but one more year in jurniors will suit her well. Helgesson is alredy competing in Senior Grand Prix since this season.
I/K, Shibutanis and M/K will move up for sure. I/K are on a rapid journey to become Russian top team for Sochi and they will start right now. PaulIslam will and should stay in Jrs. and same goes for Pushkash Guerreiro. Im hoping for 2 Senior events for the italiam team.
Pairs is kinda pointless every year since they can do both Senior and Junior Grand Prix.
Shelepen doesn't turn 15 until July 28, so doesn't that make her ineligible for seniors for another season?
No. For Senior Grand Prix girls will have to be 14 by July 1st of 2010. So she can and will easily gain 2 events in the GP if she moves up. Its the best move for her IMO. She wont be eligible for Euros and Worlds until 2011-2012 season though, but can come back to Jr. Worlds to win the title she missed this time.
Beliver in Sasha's Perfect Program
I am kinda surprised the Shibanutis are moving up to seniors considering thier dissapointing showing at junior worlds this year. Since they are inelligiable for senior worlds in 2011 (even if they make the team) they will likely go to junior worlds again anyway.
I, too, am surprised to hear the Shibs moving up to seniors. Is it a done deal, or just a speculation? Considering Maia to be only 16 year old for the next season, it seems to me that they would rather benefit from refining their skills on the junior circuit.
Originally Posted by Tinymavy15
FYI: I went to the Shib's web-site. No mention of moving up to seniors there. Of course it doen't mean that they don't.
Last edited by CARA; 04-02-2010 at 03:28 PM.
For the Shibutanis: To stay for the third year in the Junior Grand Prix circuit, when their scores and worlds standing are already Top Senior level (15th season best score + 14th at world ranking) would be a waste of time IMO, even with the step back they suffered this season. They can do the GP and compete as Seniors at Nationals gaining lots of experience and still make the team for Junior Worlds and maybe finally win that title.
All three are eligible for the senior GP this season, just not senior worlds. I think Shelepen will definitely skate on the senior GP in the coming season and I wouldn't be surprised if Ovcharova joined her, she was 2nd at the junior nationals and won the SP at junior worlds, I think she could handle seniors and I think Russia will need the JGP slots for all those younger girls. For senior ladies, they just have Makarova and Leonova, so I think the federation could give two GP spots to both Shelepen and Ovcharova if they wanted to compete seniors, where Gerboldt is in pairs and Gozeva likely won't get any GP assignments, or if she does will just get COR. Agafonova will likely stay on the JGP just where she has not gone to the JGPF yet and she is so young and tiny.
Originally Posted by ImaginaryPogue
Kiri I assume will do JGP again but I guess technically she could do SGP...I just don't think it's the best idea considering she was only 4th at junior nationals and only 7th at the JGPF. She'll probably skate senior at nationals though if I had to guess.
Agnes is a question mark but Tom's kids tend to stay in juniors until they are ready. I think doing JGP and maybe a couple of senior Bs could be the best route for her.
Yeah, I assumed the rules for the GP and senior worlds were the same, when that's not the case. My bad. Also, that is silly.
Yeah it is kind of weird but I hope so of those little Russian girls DO move up to seniors this season, I want to see how much damage they can do on the Senior GP circuit, maybe steal a few medals away from veteran skaters who are past their peak. I mean, if they can score 60 points in the SP at a junior event they could maybe score 65ish at a senior event, which would be quite competitive, especially if Yuna and Joannie retire.
Originally Posted by ImaginaryPogue
Elena ILINYKH, I hope she will be Russian No.1 dance team who ever her partner is, Not only she is a figure skater,but she also is an artist and great actress. Her expression on ice is just stunning.
When Murakami debuts the senior, the Japan Nationals will be interesting to watch.
Maya turned 15 in July 2009, so she is eligible for Worlds 2011 as well as 4CC.
Originally Posted by Tinymavy15
Yeah, and I also think a lot of skaters just want to get themselves out there so that they have time to build a reputation for themselves before Sochi.
Originally Posted by chuckm