Page 1 of 5 1 2 3 4 5 LastLast
Results 1 to 15 of 61

Thread: Hypothetically, how would past great skaters like Michelle fare in today's system?

  1. #1
    Custom Title
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Posts
    301

    Hypothetically, how would past great skaters like Michelle fare in today's system?

    Today I was just thinking about how skaters like Michelle, Irina, Midori and Kristi would have fared under today's system, and what their program layout would have looked like.

    For example, I think Michelle's SP layout would have been something like:
    3Lz-2T 7.2
    3F 5.5
    2A 3.5
    Total base value of jumps: 15.2
    (Point of comparison: Yu-Na's 2010 SP is at 18; Mao at 17.2; Rochette 15.2).

    Michelle's LP would perhaps look something like this:
    3T-3T 8.0 (Michelle could pull this off but never seemed to do so throughout her career; but I'm assuming that given her talents and shift to CoP scoring under our hypothetical circumstances, she would at least have a 3T-3T.)
    3Lo 5.0
    3F 5.5
    3L-2T 7.2
    3Sal 4.5
    3L 6.0
    2A 3.5
    Total base value of jumps (without added past-halfway bonus): 39.7.
    (Points of comparison: Yu-Na's 2010 LP: 42.2; Mao: 45.6).

    Of course we're just talking about hypotheticals here, but I really do think that a Michelle in her prime and under CoP would have been able to do just as well, though I suspect we would have lost some of her amazing artistry under CoP. She would get consistent +1 GOE's on her jumps, even more for her spiral and her PCS would be great too.

    What do you think? Am I living in ga-ga land?

  2. #2
    Custom Title
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    1,090
    It's hard to say how skaters who haven't skated under COP would fare, but I believe someone like Michelle would've adapted and milked the system. But I think that adjustment has to happen early in a career, not later on. Even at 2005 Worlds, with rather non-COP friendly programs, she showed she was capable of competing, was 3rd in the SP and LP with decent scores. Her biggest mistake was sacrificing quantity for quality, thinking a better done low level spin should receive better GOE's to make it at least worth a poorly done upper level spin. Michelle at her prime at very intricate programs, but had less speed. Even so, she was still faster than average, and we've seen many skaters slow down thanks to COP. I think footwork and spirals were always a strong point, so she would've be successful in these two elements. With a few tweakings, I can picture "Song of the Black Swan" or "The Red Violin" being COP friendly. Rumors had it her 2006 programs were up to COP standards and she was gearing towards level 3-4 on all her elements.

    All in all, I think if 15 year old Michelle emerged in 2005 rather than 10 years earlier, she would've been talked about as a contender for 2010.

    Other skaters I can think of...

    Sarah had many pieces to be a COP skater, difficult transitions, good spins, spirals, lots of connecting moves, BUT she had serious UR issues which would've been her shortcoming.

    I doubt Tara's 3lp/3lp would've been ratified, and that was her big weapon in winning. She did have speed which the judges love, and super consistency. But her flawed flutz, axle technique, and her mule kick may have hurt her. She was a roller skater before, so I'm sure COE in spins would've been her thing. I don't think 1998 Tara would have done well, but if she had stuck around and cleaned up her technique as well as developed ore as an artist, she probably would've been really successful.

    Midori probably could've milked the jump points by putting 3ax in both the SP and LP, plus she had a 3/3.

    I'm sure there are plenty others...but my point is the top skaters in recent history most likely would've been successful if they were brought up under COP. I think some of the veterans had a tougher time adjusting. We see so many younger skaters with iffy technique competing, throwing out 3/3's or doing spread eagles into 2ax's because that is how they learned. Same for the spirals-Michelle's "simple" COE is still more beautiful to me, with her speed and smooth, effortless change than some of these jerky, grab the blade and slow down COE we see as point getters under COP.

  3. #3
    Custom Title Mathman's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2003
    Location
    Detroit, Michigan
    Posts
    28,635
    Quote Originally Posted by Marrymeyunakim View Post
    .Michelle's LP would perhaps look something like this:

    3T-3T 8.0
    3Lo 5.0
    3F 5.5
    3L-2T 7.2
    3Sal 4.5
    3L 6.0
    2A 3.5

    Total base value of jumps (without added past-halfway bonus): 39.7.

    (Points of comparison: Yu-Na's 2010 LP: 42.2; Mao: 45.6).
    Hmm. I think this can be read as quite a strong criticism of the direction skating has gone under the new scoring system.

    First of all, the program you gave Michelle is not hypothetical. This was Michelle's standard jump layout, as for instance in the Red Violin at 2000 Worlds and the Song of the Black Swan at 2001 Worlds.)

    Note that Michelle's program presents all six jumps from double Axel through triple Lutz in a seven triple program.

    Kim's higher scoring program had only six triples, with no triple loop, eked out by three double Axels.

    Asada's higher scoring program had six triples in all, no Salchow, no Lutz.

    Points, points, points. A balanced program exhibiting mastery of the "full vocabulary of figure skating?" Are we going forward or backward?

  4. #4
    Banned janetfan's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2009
    Location
    Philadelphia, PA
    Posts
    6,889
    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman View Post
    Points, points, points. A balanced program exhibiting mastery of the "full vocabulary of figure skating?" Are we going forward or backward?
    Let's consider a younger Michelle, still being trained by Frank and with Lori doing her choreo.

    First let's get back to the jump layouts/values. Does Patrick Chan have the highest point potential from his jump layouts?
    Does he score points like crazy skating to Lori's choreo?

    Is Patrick as consistent a jumper as Michelle?
    Let's consider what Lori does fore Joannie. Does Joannie have a 3A or 3x3? More importanlty is Joannie as consistent as Michelle?

    My thoughts are that in this era we would see Michelle skating much like Patrick. Under Frank's watchful eye and with Lori's masterful CoP choreo what would Michelle's scoring potential be?

    Also consider how much reputation counts in CoP. I am sure judges would still love Michelle's skating, Lori would have her racking up points the way Patrick does and Frank would keep her well trained.

    Michelle landing so many jumps and skating with so much artistry would get monster pcs.
    Her TES would also be very high and she would get GOE the way Laura does - but probably more. Judges respect the full set of standard triples, they respect consistentency and if Michelle had started on CoP when she was young enough she would have been a terror

    I also suspect if Michelle had started in this era Frank would have had her with a 3x3, maybe a 2A+3T, or whatever it took to make her competitive.

    We have to remember Evan won the OGM in part due to good coaching and choreo.
    Patrick just won Silver again at Worlds without the hardest jumps.

    Surely Michelle could do as good as Evan and Patrick do in this system?

  5. #5
    Wicked Yankee Girl dorispulaski's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2003
    Location
    Staring at the ocean and smiling.
    Posts
    16,746
    Michelle landed a lot of nice 3t3t combos, which is all you need. Again, look at Laura.

    Since she had the whole group of triples, she could easily have gotten her 7 triple program.

    3t3t
    3lz2lp
    3Lp
    3lz
    3f2t
    2A
    3S2t2lp (she had a 2/2/2 when young-I see her having no trouble getting a 3/2/2/ or 2a/2/2)

    She also had a reversing camel spin, which now actually gets a feature rather than no credit at all.

    She would have had to upgrade f/w & spins, but a young Michelle without a sore hip could have done it.
    Last edited by dorispulaski; 04-02-2010 at 07:09 PM.

  6. #6
    Custom Title
    Join Date
    Jun 2007
    Location
    New York
    Posts
    1,713
    I can only assume MK's strong skating skill and edges would've earned her very high pcs, and Tara would've never won the worlds title in '97 with that 4-min-long diaper commercial.

  7. #7
    Banned janetfan's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2009
    Location
    Philadelphia, PA
    Posts
    6,889
    Quote Originally Posted by Wrlmy View Post
    I can only assume MK's strong skating skill and edges would've earned her very high pcs, and Tara would've never won the worlds title in '97 with that 4-min-long diaper commercial.
    Yea - that was part of my point. Patrick gets rewarded for his skating skills and CH. Michelle would too and would have better IN and PE than Patrick. And better consistency.........

    But I was doing a hypothetical - and part of it was that Michelle would be training under CoP from an early age and not trying to change over in her mid- 20's. And especially not with her Dad and sister as part of her team but strictly with Frank and Lori.

  8. #8
    Custom Title Mathman's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2003
    Location
    Detroit, Michigan
    Posts
    28,635
    Quote Originally Posted by dorispulaski View Post

    3t3t
    3lz2lp or 2T
    3Lp
    3lz
    3f2t
    2A
    3S/2t/2lpi
    Note again that this program is not merely hypothetical. This is exactly the program that Michelle in fact skated, over and over, during her competitive career, with the addition of that extra CoP idiosyncracy, the gratuitous 2T+2Lo tacked on somewhere.

    This program outscores Yu-na Kim's supposedly CoP-friendly jump layout 42.5 tp 42.2.

    And now for the bomb. Here is Kristi's 1992 jump layout:

    3Lz+3T 10.0
    2A 3.5
    3F 5.5
    3T 4.0
    3 Lo 5.0
    3 S 4.5
    3 Lz 6.0

    (She also did an extra double Axel for an 8th pass.)

    Total: 38.5.

    Seven planned triples, a 3Lz+3T combo, all jumps from 2A ro 3Lz represented.

    Comparing this to Kim’s program, again all Kristi needs to do is throw in an extra +2T+2Lo and an extra +2T somewhere, leaving out the last 2A.

    As for matching the program to the music, judge for yourself (setting aside the two mistakes at the end):

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dozwFZ5NoNs

  9. #9
    Custom Title
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Posts
    301
    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman View Post
    Note again that this program is not merely hypothetical. This is exactly the program that Michelle in fact skated, over and over, during her competitive career, with the addition of that extra CoP idiosyncracy, the gratuitous 2T+2Lo tacked on somewhere.

    This program outscores Yu-na Kim's supposedly CoP-friendly jump layout 42.5 tp 42.2.

    And now for the bomb. Here is Kristi's 1992 jump layout:

    3Lz+3T 10.0
    2A 3.5
    3F 5.5
    3T 4.0
    3 Lo 5.0
    3 S 4.5
    3 Lz 6.0

    (She also did an extra double Axel for an 8th pass.)

    Total: 38.5.

    Seven planned triples, a 3Lz+3T combo, all jumps from 2A ro 3Lz represented.

    Comparing this to Kim’s program, again all Kristi needs to do is throw in an extra +2T+2Lo and an extra +2T somewhere, leaving out the last 2A.

    As for matching the program to the music, judge for yourself (setting aside the two mistakes at the end):

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dozwFZ5NoNs
    I doubt Kristi would have consistently done 3S for her LP though. She was always shaky with that jump. She would have put in a 2A after halfway or something.

  10. #10
    Custom Title
    Join Date
    Aug 2009
    Posts
    9,495
    Gotta love math!

    I'm glad to see Michelle vindicated like that. Surely the team of Frank, Lori, and Michelle would have prevailed even in this era, because as you all have pointed out, Lori and Frank are very CoP-savvy, as their success with Evan and others have shown.

    I'm also glad you mentioned Kristi. When this thread started, I wondered about her, because she was always in such command of her technique (except the salchow, as I recall) and in fact retained her triples well into her long professional career. And didn't she have a triple-triple in the 1992 Olympics? That's pretty impressive.

    Even if those two ladies hadn't measured up in our hypothetical comparison, I'd still love and admire them. But they do. Isn't it cool?

  11. #11
    Custom Title Mathman's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2003
    Location
    Detroit, Michigan
    Posts
    28,635
    Quote Originally Posted by Marrymeyunakim View Post
    I doubt Kristi would have consistently done 3S for her LP though. She was always shaky with that jump. She would have put in a 2A after halfway or something.
    I guess she could have done what Kim did, substitute 2A+2T+2Lo for her nemesis jump (Salchow for Kristi, loop for Yu-na).

    However, Kristi always gamely tried to put the Salchow into every important performance, even though it was a problem for her. Pride, I suppose.

    Quote Originally Posted by Olympia View Post
    And didn't she have a triple-triple in the 1992 Olympics? That's pretty impressive.
    And not just a triple-triple, a triple Lutz-triple toe.

    Even if those two ladies hadn't measured up in our hypothetical comparison, I'd still love and admire them. But they do. Isn't it cool?

  12. #12
    Custom Title Mathman's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2003
    Location
    Detroit, Michigan
    Posts
    28,635
    PS. By the numbers.

    Just to keep things in perspective, here is Midori Ito's 3A+3T combination. 13.8 points, under the CoP.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3e9g_5e52mk&NR=1

  13. #13
    Custom Title
    Join Date
    Aug 2009
    Posts
    9,495
    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman View Post
    PS. By the numbers.

    Just to keep things in perspective, here is Midori Ito's 3A+3T combination. 13.8 points, under the CoP.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3e9g_5e52mk&NR=1

    The way that lady climbs up the air...magnifique! Her axel is almost as tall as she is.

  14. #14
    Custom Title prettykeys's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Posts
    1,803
    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman View Post
    Hmm. I think this can be read as quite a strong criticism of the direction skating has gone under the new scoring system.

    First of all, the program you gave Michelle is not hypothetical. This was Michelle's standard jump layout, as for instance in the Red Violin at 2000 Worlds and the Song of the Black Swan at 2001 Worlds.)

    Note that Michelle's program presents all six jumps from double Axel through triple Lutz in a seven triple program.

    Kim's higher scoring program had only six triples, with no triple loop, eked out by three double Axels.

    Asada's higher scoring program had six triples in all, no Salchow, no Lutz.

    Points, points, points. A balanced program exhibiting mastery of the "full vocabulary of figure skating?" Are we going forward or backward?
    It's my personal opinion that technically, ladies' figure skating hit a peak in the era of Midori Ito and Kristi Yamaguchi and went backwards during Michelle Kwan's time. Michelle had a lot of other goodies to offer, but she didn't push herself in that respect. 3T-3T was her standard 3-3 and then she dropped that when it turned out she didn't "need" it. So, why criticize the IJS with the examples of YuNa and Mao when they don't do technical elements they don't need to do, either, and offer other things? I consider this era to be on about the same level, technically, as Michelle's time (not equivalent, but about the same.) I guess "balance" can be debated when it comes to omitting certain types of triples rather than doing the same in a combination, or putting in a 3Axel, but the effect on viewing a program seems minimal. I don't do a checklist in my mind of what jumps were completed and what weren't. Visually, a 3-3 is far more noticeable to a casual viewer than an assortment of different jumps which I've only been able to identify this past year or so. Artistically, it is qualitatively different. Sure, criticize that, I guess. YuNa has the capability of landing a clean 3Loop in competition (it's not as consistent as her other jumps, though), and Mao has the capability of doing 3Lutzes and 3Salchows (dropped in favour of practicing that 3Axel?) Well, they set their priorities.

    How many different types of triples did Katarina Witt do under 6.0 at her 1988 Olympics? OMG, shame you, 6.0! That's like Laura Lepisto winning in our time!

    And while we are stacking up skaters' scoring potentials via base values, might as well throw in GoE, too. Mao's programs generally have higher BV than YuNa's but that doesn't mean she necessarily outscores her in the TES when they are both clean (Rachael Flatt and Joannie Rochette may have also had higher BV programs, as well, and also had 7-triple LPs somewhere.)

    All in all, I am convinced that Midori Ito would have been the ultimate CoP lady skater.

  15. #15
    Mashimaro on Ice
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Posts
    1,419
    Quote Originally Posted by prettykeys View Post
    All in all, I am convinced that Midori Ito would have been the ultimate CoP lady skater.
    Probably, but will she get marked down in the artistic components? But I can imagine her having a big lead in the TES. Imagine combining Michelle's artistic abilities and Ito's athletic prowess, wow that could be the ultimate ladies skater.

Page 1 of 5 1 2 3 4 5 LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •