Major Changes Expected in Single Skating in 2010-2011

Mathman said:

If they think that triple Axels and quads are undervalued, they could raise the values (as many skaters and observers are urging.)

But in any case, the point I was making was that I have no reason to doubt that the committee felt that making this change was in the interests of figure skating a whole. Rather than just cheating to help Mao win something next year and get more money from Japanese television.

Click to expand...

The 3A subs. 2A rule might have been a product of a compromise. JSF might have really wanted an increase in base value for the triple axel but ISU committee might have been reluctant to give them that. So a middle ground as reached. Nonetheless, the rule still has the same effect of increasing the score value of the jump and with added benefits since it comes with little risk to Mao. This rule which "coincidentally" is being brought together with the max 2a rule (which will cripple Yuna) really has JSF's fingerprints all over it.

tarotx said:

As for as Mao's carte blanche-all the ladies have the option of attempting the 3A if the new rule passes. Taking away some of the risk could make it a risk worth taking for many women. Especially those who have edge issues.

Click to expand...

It's not just the risk of whether they will lose many points in the short program if they run afoul of the short program repeat jump limits the way Asada did at Rostelcom.

The other question is whether any of these women even have a triple axel that they can rotate and stand up on at least, say, half the time they try.

If they did, don't you think they'd be trying them in their long programs already, where the risk is lower?

Allowing the solo 3A in the short program might also have benefitted Yukari Nakano if it had been introduced a couple years ago. But she's retired now, so that's not a consideration.

If this change passes this year, I don't expect to suddenly see any ladies besides Asada attempting 3A in the SP this fall.

What might be increased is the number of juniors or young seniors working on the jump in practice and maybe a few more attempting it in LPs in 2010-2011. Which would hasten the time when some of them might feel ready to take the greater risk of attempting it in SPs. While also likely increasing the number of 3A-related injuries, as others have suggested. Either way one would hope that these skaters will train smart and not take inappropriate risks in practice long before they're at the point of risking the jump in competition.

If it will be several years before skaters other than Asada will benefit from the option to do solo 3A in the SP, is there any up side now for anyone besides Asada to change the rule this year?

Hi Wallylutz I am just curious about your speculation that Mao will try 3f/3l as combo jump and 3z as the solo jump in her sp. Just citing her attempt of 3f/3l, in one competition and 3z in another and tht she is a :Japanese” does not exactly have me convinced.

BTW Wally, a while back you have suggested 2 jump layouts for Mao’s lp (considering her strength and weakness) i
1) Triple Flip + Triple Toe
2) Triple Lutz
3) Triple Loop + Double Loop + Double Loop
4) Triple Axel (Second Half)
5) Triple Flip (Second Half)
6) Double Axel + Double Axel (Second Half)
7) Triple Loop (Second Half)



The second layout
1)3F+3T
2)3Lz
3)FSSp4
4)3S
5)SpSq4
6)3A
7)3Lo+3Lo
8)FCoSp4
9)3F
10)2A+2A+2A+SEQ
11)SlSt4
12)CCoSp4

Keeping in mind that these are lp jump layouts (and skaters usually are more willing to take some risk in the lp) no where in your suggestion do I see 3f/3l. Do you seriously think Mao can pull off 3f/3l without the 3l downgrade? Do you seriously think she can fix her flutz and get a real lutz? If her chance of pulling off 3f/3l AND 3z in a sp (required elements) is not big, then the theoretical >6 points BV advantage you have calculated for Mao is not realistic. I actually think Mathman’s 3f/3t and 3l plan for Mao is much more realistic. That gives her less than 2 point BV advantage

About poor Yuna needs to retire, come on, are you underestimating Yuna’s potential? Didn’t Orser say 3a is in their plan?

For those who think ISU is sacrificing Yuna for Mao? WHY? I would think for the sake of TV ratings and the sports they want Yuna to stay 4 more yrs. OTOH Mao will stay for 4 yrs. None of you (who are advocating this ISU conspiracy) have answered that question yet.

Oh well, since this is off season and I love some conspiracy theories. Didn't the Korean article mentioned that the new proposed rules will solidify Yuna's record of winning olys with the largest margin? Maybe Yuna has already told ISU tht she will retire, and the tech guys are changing the rules for her, so that her record of winning by the large margin will stand in history and no one will ever exceed that. Now tht I think about it, I think the ISU change the age rule for Tara, yeah she will forever be the youngest OGM
Last but not least, and I am not accusing you of being racist, b/c I seriously don’t think you are, what is it about being “Japanese” in your opinion that makes Mao take a seemingly “unwise” path of going for the riskiest elements even though in most ppl’s opinion that risks OUTSWEIGHS the potential rewards.

BTW, Do you think in 2006 olys Arakawa took huge risks also?

Oh well, I am really ready to switch subject and talk about Patrick Chan and the quads

oh god, 18 pages and they havent decided yet? And I had just finished reading the notes of last season..

rtureck said:

Oh well, I am really ready to switch subject and talk about Patrick Chan and the quads

Click to expand...

Me, too. As I understand it, the new SP rule for quads will benefit only those skaters that have two different quads. Joubert has done both 4T and 4S in competition. Takahashi tried a 4F, but without success. I think Ryan Bradley can do both 4T and 4S.

Anyone else?

Kevin Reynods also.
and theoretically Amodio and Brezina have 4s, i dont know if they have 4toe.

GoPC2018 said:

Well, one interesting fact that might contradict your opinion.

In men's FS at Vancouver, there were actually one more 3A (including combo) landed and ratified than 3-3 (excluding 4T combo). So does this mean 3A-( ) is rather an easier jump compared to 3-3 combo?

I just want to say they are both difficult jumps, and you can't just argue which one is harder. It just depends on each skater.

Click to expand...

I was not talking about a single outed event. (Olympic is a very particular event.) I was talking about competitions in average. Apparently 3A is a very hard jump even for men, even for some champions , while many of them land 3-3 easily.

seniorita said:

oh god, 18 pages and they havent decided yet? And I had just finished reading the notes of last season..

Click to expand...

The ISU Congress isn't until next month. I'm sure Golden Skate can fill up a whole thread with speculation and hypotehticals before any of these proposals are decided on.

I never understood why Mao should have to do a double axel if she has already done a triple. All other ladies can still do a double if they want to.

I can’t remember where, but I remember a proposal to reduce the penalty on an underrotation. So an underrotated triple will be worth more than a good double. With all the complaints about Laura’s bronze at Worlds, you would think this would be a welcome change.

PolymerBob said:

I never understood why Mao should have to do a double axel if she has already done a triple. All other ladies can still do a double if they want to.

Click to expand...

:yes: Common sense.

PolymerBob said:

I never understood why Mao should have to do a double axel if she has already done a triple. All other ladies can still do a double if they want to.

I can’t remember where, but I remember a proposal to reduce the penalty on an underrotation. So an underrotated triple will be worth more than a good double. With all the complaints about Laura’s bronze at Worlds, you would think this would be a welcome change.

Click to expand...

I totally agree with you. The objection for the revised rule of 3A seems to come mostly from Yu-na fans. I do not understand why they have to worry so much about this. Yu-na already got the best 3-3 with tons of GOE and as rtereck quoated I am sure Yuna must have been working on 3A with Orser for a while now and it is a great challenge for her. Hearing from everyone's talk about Yu-na's personality, I am very sure she will welcome this new challenge. And with her enormous talent as fans describe, I am sure 3A must be a piece of cake!! She does not seem to be a type to escape from the challenge. Yuna may not like the fact that the fas are making so much fuss about it. Mao has another challenge to perfect her 3-3 and hopefully 3L's edge. And this rule will encourage many other young skaters to try 3A in the future. Mao has already motivated some russian upcoming stars. It is a great thing for this sports. I am looking forward to the new season.

PROKOFIEV said:

The objection for the revised rule of 3A seems to come mostly from Yu-na fans.

Click to expand...

For the record, I am not a Yu-Na fan or Korean, either in parts or whole. I am also pretty sure a lot of other people who expressed concerns re: the rule change here are neither as well. There is no point in turning this yet into another Mao vs. Yu-Na debacle.

wallylutz said:

For the record, I am not a Yu-Na fan or Korean, either in parts or whole. I am also pretty sure a lot of other people who expressed concerns re: the rule change here are neither as well. There is no point in turning this yet into another Mao vs. Yu-Na debacle.

Click to expand...

Oh course, it should not be.

rtureck said:

Hi Wallylutz I am just curious about your speculation that Mao will try 3f/3l as combo jump and 3z as the solo jump in her sp. Just citing her attempt of 3f/3l, in one competition and 3z in another and tht she is a :Japanese” does not exactly have me convinced.

Click to expand...

Actually, they are from the same competition, not two separate competitions. The 3F+3Lo and 3Lz SP layout was her standard layout in the 2008-2009 season which means she tried it on more than one occasion, including the 2009 Worlds. She consistently tries the 3F+3Lo combo, almost always managed to complete the rotations, at least on the surface of it. However, the Tech Panel had been less willing to credit the 3Lo as fully rotated except perhaps the 2009 Worlds for which she did credit for the combo.

rtureck said:

BTW Wally, a while back you have suggested 2 jump layouts for Mao’s lp (considering her strength and weakness) i
1) Triple Flip + Triple Toe
2) Triple Lutz
3) Triple Loop + Double Loop + Double Loop
4) Triple Axel (Second Half)
5) Triple Flip (Second Half)
6) Double Axel + Double Axel (Second Half)
7) Triple Loop (Second Half)



The second layout
1)3F+3T
2)3Lz
3)FSSp4
4)3S
5)SpSq4
6)3A
7)3Lo+3Lo
8)FCoSp4
9)3F
10)2A+2A+2A+SEQ
11)SlSt4
12)CCoSp4

Keeping in mind that these are lp jump layouts (and skaters usually are more willing to take some risk in the lp) no where in your suggestion do I see 3f/3l. Do you seriously think Mao can pull off 3f/3l without the 3l downgrade?

Click to expand...

Not going for the 3F+3Lo combo was a recommendation based on risk management, it doesn't mean she won't or can't try it. Don't mind my recommendation, I don't think Mao Asada listens to anyone except herself, she comes across as a very stubborn person and I also don't think she will try just one Triple Axel in her LP. She had completed 3F+3Lo without being downgraded, e.g. 2009 Worlds How consistent is it going to be? Nobody knows for sure. Despite that 3Lo combo only offers 1 point of BV more than the 3T combo, you see all these Japanese girls, like Ando and Asada all went for it even though most other people would think that the 1 point difference is not worth the risk. Don't try to understand the logic, there was no good explanation for Takahashi's 4F attempt at the 2010 Worlds either as he risked a disastrous fall and hand the Gold to a less-than-perfect Patrick Chan. Japanese skaters tend to have this obsession with the principle of "no pain = no gain" to an extreme. That's why Ando kept doing 3/3 even though she continues to UR them. In an interview, she was quoted saying if she doesn't do 3/3, people back home won't believe she stands a chance to win. On the other hand, if she tries 3/3, people back home would automatically assumes she could win. So regardless whether she will be able to get credit for it even 50% of the time, do expect her to try it no matter what. It would be uncharacteristic if she doesn't try to shoot the moon.

rtureck said:

Do you seriously think she can fix her flutz and get a real lutz? If her chance of pulling off 3f/3l AND 3z in a sp (required elements) is not big, then the theoretical >6 points BV advantage you have calculated for Mao is not realistic. I actually think Mathman’s 3f/3t and 3l plan for Mao is much more realistic. That gives her less than 2 point BV advantage

Click to expand...

Unfortunately, I do not have a crystal ball. I wouldn't be able to tell you how likely she will be able to land those jumps. What I can tell you is she will most likely try them no matter what. The theoretical BV differential is still there, it wouldn't be diminished by the higher risk - you are confusing two different concepts. Mathman's calc was based on 3F/2T, not 3F/3T. Using 3F/3T and 3Lo instead, the advantage drops from 6.5 to about 4.5, still significant. Mao Asada did not receive that many edge calls. Her problem with the Lutz seems to be getting enough lift on her outside edge take off and rotate the jump. When she does, she usually gets the edge right and all her rotations.

rtureck said:

Hi Wallylutz
About poor Yuna needs to retire, come on, are you underestimating Yuna’s potential? Didn’t Orser say 3a is in their plan?

Click to expand...

No, that was never part of their plan as far as I know. Orser believes there are other things that Yu Na can strive to achieve still when asked about what other goals he could set for his skater after winning the Gold in Vancouver. When Yu-Na was asked about it, from a confused reporter, she ignored and side-step the question completely.

For those who think ISU is sacrificing Yuna for Mao? WHY? I would think for the sake of TV ratings and the sports they want Yuna to stay 4 more yrs. OTOH Mao will stay for 4 yrs. None of you (who are advocating this ISU conspiracy) have answered that question yet.

Click to expand...

Because this question is potentially very explosive, I don't think many people are comfortable talking about this here on the record. Don't expect me to talk about this here or anywhere publicly, sorry, I just won't. I don't think you should assume the lack of discussion or silence on this question as a lack of ideas because that would be naive.

Last but not least, and I am not accusing you of being racist, b/c I seriously don’t think you are, what is it about being “Japanese” in your opinion that makes Mao take a seemingly “unwise” path of going for the riskiest elements even though in most ppl’s opinion that risks OUTSWEIGHS the potential rewards.

Click to expand...

I already explained it above. In short, you should ask yourself, why would Daisuke Takahashi go for the Quad Flip when he obviously didn't need it? Why is kamikaze such a shocking concept to Americans? You would understand if you are actually familiar with Japanese thinking. Was the 1 point difference to go for the 3Lz or 3F + 3Lo combo worth the high risk of the 3Lo combo? But why is that only those Japanese girls and only Japanese are doing it? Can you think of another girl doing 3Lz/3F + 3Lo combo in the SP in the last 20 years who is not Japanese? It certainly isn't because they need that extra 1 point over the 3T, so why? I think once you find the answer to that, you'll answer your own question.

An article to show that Wallylutz is not racist (nor Korean)

And we can thank Miki Ando for this!
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/olympics/2009-12-24-1125340892_x.htm

An argument with her coach was the last thing Miki Ando needed.

Yet there she was, hours before the free skate at last March's world figure skating championships in Los Angeles, in the midst of a volatile discussion with Nikolai Morozov. Ando was in position to medal, if not win outright at the worlds, an event she also won in 2007 in her first season under Morozov's guidance.

Between that championship and Los Angeles, Ando did not win another significant event. She didn't even get to defend her world crown in 2008.

And now, a potential meltdown.

"In the free program, I did not do a triple-triple," Ando said, referring to the combination jump that is becoming commonplace in women's skating. "In the morning skate practice I did it, but he said not to do the triple-triple (in the competition) because he knows it's difficult to get and they are going to downgrade it for sure if I miss.

"And I was just worried what the Japanese people would say. I did not feel comfortable with this. I was worried because I am Japanese."

Click to expand...

"Because in Japan, they kind of like jumping, and if I did a quad or a triple-triple, they will say, 'She is going to win, she is going to get a medal.' It is that culture because we don't have any history in Japan in figure skating.

Click to expand...

ETA This is the story that Wallylutz referred to in his earlier post. Also this post doesn't really prove he's not Korean. Sorry.

wallylutz said:

For the record, I am not a Yu-Na fan or Korean, either in parts or whole. I am also pretty sure a lot of other people who expressed concerns re: the rule change here are neither as well. There is no point in turning this yet into another Mao vs. Yu-Na debacle.

Click to expand...

It seems you are definitely anti-Japanese. By using a word such as Kamikaze or try to sterotype Japanese nationality, I think you need to stop. It is ugly.

PROKOFIEV said:

It seems you are definitely anti-Japanese. By using a word such as Kamikaze or try to sterotype Japanese nationality, I think you need to stop. It is ugly.

Click to expand...

YOU need to stop insulting Yuna fans too.

This is what you wrote in one of Yuna's thread,

"WHOOOOOO CAREEEEEEEEEES!!!!!!! They should put up all these commercial videos and other non skating related videos on the yuna fan forum. Yuna fans can talk about YUNA news and praise her as much as they want on Yunafan forum!! I am sick of it!!! And I can not ignore it"

GoPC2018 said:

YOU need to stop insulting Yuna fans too.

This is what you wrote in one of Yuna's thread,

"WHOOOOOO CAREEEEEEEEEES!!!!!!! They should put up all these commercial videos and other non skating related videos on the yuna fan forum. Yuna fans can talk about YUNA news and praise her as much as they want on Yunafan forum!! I am sick of it!!! And I can not ignore it"

Click to expand...

Yes. I DO have a problem with SOME of Yuna fans who just can not accept other skater's accomplishment and try to leave negativity against certain skater. I WILL NOT deny it at all. HOWEVER, I will not stereotype Korean people or any Korean skaters. I simply CAN NOT. There is a BIIIIIIIIIIG difference here.

For those who believe there's some conspiracy behind this , don't you find it really ridiculous for the "mastermind" JSF to announce it publicly right before the technical committee propose these change? A bit too obvious don't you think? Actually, a much better and more guaranteed way for Mao to gain major points is to loosen up on the downgrades for her jumps.

Mathman said:

If they think that triple Axels and quads are undervalued, they could raise the values (as many skaters and observers are urging.)

But in any case, the point I was making was that I have no reason to doubt that the committee felt that making this change was in the interests of figure skating a whole. Rather than just cheating to help Mao win something next year and get more money from Japanese television.

Click to expand...

I wonder if we would have witnessed this rule change if Yu-na were a Japanese and Mao were a Korean.