Major Changes Expected in Single Skating in 2010-2011

[janetfan]

No, she doesn't. Mirai hasn't yet achieved the same SS level as Mao but Mirai's American fans were so ready to crown her as the next World Champion until their expecations crushed her to 11th at the Torino Worlds FS.

I still see a WC as a possibilty in Mirai's future. Sure I was disappointed in her Torino LP - let's not forget an even average skate from her would have easily beaten Laura, Miki, Cynthia or Caro for the Bronze medal - and saved us so much arguing over third place .

Let's see what next season with Frank and Lori produces and if Mirai can keep growing as a person and skater. I never thought or expected Mirai to win in Torino and her 1st place showing in the SP did not give me - and I suspect most of her fans any thoughts that she would win.

After such a dramtic growth spurt - the type of which Mao or Yuna never came close to experiencing - coupled with a new coaching situation I think Mirai had a wonderful season.

Sorry to Rachael fans - but I see no possibilty of her winning a WC unless a bunch of Ladies all retired next season. I mean like 8-10 of them.

Rachael is a nice skater and tough competitor. But I doubt that any panel of international judges will ever score as highly as the US judges did this season. All the talk about the bad calls on Racahel's jumps in Vancouver - don't know what to say - if they were UR'ed or not. More than a few of her jumps were not textbook, not deserving of GOE and that's the way it goes. Air position and landings still count - right?

[gmyers]

I think Nagasu's free program is too backloaded.

[silverlake22]

I still see a WC as a possibilty in Mirai's future. Sure I was disappointed in her Torino LP - let's not forget an even average skate from her would have easily beaten Laura, Miki, Cynthia or Caro for the Bronze medal - and saved us so much arguing over third place .

Let's see what next season with Frank and Lori produces and if Mirai can keep growing as a person and skater. I never thought or expected Mirai to win in Torino and her 1st place showing in the SP did not give me - and I suspect most of her fans any thoughts that she would win.

After such a dramtic growth spurt - the type of which Mao or Yuna never came close to experiencing - coupled with a new coaching situation I think Mirai had a wonderful season.

Sorry to Rachael fans - but I see no possibilty of her winning a WC unless a bunch of Ladies all retired next season. I mean like 8-10 of them.

Rachael is a nice skater and tough competitor. But I doubt that any panel of international judges will ever score as highly as the US judges did this season. All the talk about the bad calls on Racahel's jumps in Vancouver - don't know what to say - if they were UR'ed or not. More than a few of her jumps were not textbook, not deserving of GOE and that's the way it goes. Air position and landings still count - right?

I like your post. I agree about Mirai, I tend to think she is still going through a bit of a transition phase. I mean, she grew 4 or 5 inches and gained 32 pounds over the course of a year or two, that is a BIG growthspurt. Mao and Yuna never dealt with anything like that because they grew up gradually over the course of many years, Mirai went through puberty all at once and that makes it much harder obviously as we saw with her results from the 08-09 season.

Mirai appears to be mostly done growing now and has worked a lot on her jumps and it shows. The other thing is that with the exception of Mao, and Miki and Carolina in the FS, no lady really did very well at Worlds. There were so many mistakes in the ladies event at that competition that I think post Olympic fatigue really played a factor. The other thing is that I think Mirai peaked at Nationals /the Olympics, which was the best time for her to peak, and then at Worlds, she had enough left in her to muster out a good SP but was too tired to do the same in the FS, and then coupled with the nerves it turned out to be even worse. I didn't think Mirai was going to win worlds after the SP realistically, I thought 3rd place behind Mao and Yuna or maybe 4th or 5th also behind Miki and Laura if those two performed well.

The results in ladies at Worlds was weird because the scoring was so tight. Mirai had a lead in the SP, but IMO Lepisto was a bit overscored in the SP considering her botched 2a and that's what allowed her to win bronze after her super simple FS. Miki Ando lost bronze by like a point and would have beaten Lepisto if she had simply added 2lo to her 3f in the SP after she fell on her lutz. Carolina was also a bit overscored in the SP and that's what allowed her to beat Mirai, in the FS I actually thought her score could have been a bit higher but I guess her total score was fair if you look at the two programs together. Cynthia ended up so high because she had two solid programs while a lot of the other ladies had one good and one bad (Miki, Mirai, Caro, and I guess Laura though her SP wasn't great despite the score). I actually thought Ksenia should have beaten Phanuef but of course she was held down in PCS. This event reminded me a lot of the 08 Worlds because the placements seemed a bit odd - Caro winning silver with her messy FS there is like Laura winning bronze with her FS full of doubles here, Yukari in 4th after delivering such a good LP in 08 is a lot like Miki missing the podium despite a clean LP, Yuna had big mistakes in the SP this year just like in 08 and it kept her from winning the title despite a winning (but not perfect) FS. In 08 the scoring was tight just like this year and in both cases - odd results...

Rachael, with 3-3 in both programs, is maybe looking at an outside shot at World Bronze at best. That is really how I see it, and that would probably only be likely if Joannie and/or Yuna retire. There are too many other ladies that when they are clean (or for some just marginally clean) will always beat Rachael, such as Laura, Miki, Carolina, and now Mirai and even Ksenia and Cynthia. Rachael just doesn't have much artistry or speed, has (sorry) really ugly spins, mediocre spirals and flexibility, bad posture, and fairly small jumps that don't garner much GOE. Rachael does so well because she can land 6-7 triple LPs consistently and that makes up for all of her weaknesses, but when she leaves out the 3-3 and has a couple mistakes or URs, has anyone noticed how she immediately moves to the middle of the pack? It's like the Caroline Zhang situation, Rachael can do well in competitions, but in order to get good results, she has to get more accomplished than most of the other skaters do.

[FlattFan]

Mirai will lose her lutz next season. Fixing the edge take off caused her to miss both lutzes in the LP. I don't see her on the podium at all. Plus the rule change to disallow 3 2A will reduce her BV by a few points.
Rachael is taking one year off to focus on skating. I expect a lot from her. She's smart enough to know what to work on. I see Rachael and possibly Ashley going to Worlds next year.

[mskater93]

FlattFan, I see you have your crystal ball that again gives all postive possibililties to Rachael and all negatives to any of her rivals, again Mirai in this case. Nagasu had a 3S in the program at GW in place of one of the 2A's early in the season (and has landed it successfully throughout her short career). That will adjust her BV back up. Also, she seemed to have gotten the edge fixed throughout the season and she just looked off/tired in the LP at Torino (as did a lot of other ladies). Wait and see what summer "sightings" bring before you prognosticate all awesomeness for one and all crap for all others. Will Mao lose all her jumps too? Will Yuna quit competing? Will Joannie return next season? Will Gao, Baaga, Zawadzki all end up with career ending injuries? Will Wagner quit due to her several "oh so closes"?

[janetfan]

FlattFan, I see you have your crystal ball that again gives all postive possibililties to Rachael and all negatives to any of her rivals, again Mirai in this case. Nagasu had a 3S in the program at GW in place of one of the 2A's early in the season (and has landed it successfully throughout her short career). That will adjust her BV back up. Also, she seemed to have gotten the edge fixed throughout the season and she just looked off/tired in the LP at Torino (as did a lot of other ladies). Wait and see what summer "sightings" bring before you prognosticate all awesomeness for one and all crap for all others. Will Mao lose all her jumps too? Will Yuna quit competing? Will Joannie return next season? Will Gao, Baaga, Zawadzki all end up with career ending injuries? Will Wagner quit due to her several "oh so closes"?

ITA with you. I also agree with Flattfan that Ashley should not be counted out. If she could eliminate the mistakes in her SP she can place ahead of Rachael or Mirai on a given night.

Let's wish the best for all of the skaters. Hope Rachael bounces back and gets her jumps a bit sharper like they were in the past and improves her speed/positions a bit.

I never count out Rachael and hope she has her best year ever next season. Same for Ashley, Caroline, Christina and of course Mirai.

[FlattFan]

FlattFan, I see you have your crystal ball that again gives all postive possibililties to Rachael and all negatives to any of her rivals, again Mirai in this case. Nagasu had a 3S in the program at GW in place of one of the 2A's early in the season (and has landed it successfully throughout her short career). That will adjust her BV back up. Also, she seemed to have gotten the edge fixed throughout the season and she just looked off/tired in the LP at Torino (as did a lot of other ladies). Wait and see what summer "sightings" bring before you prognosticate all awesomeness for one and all crap for all others. Will Mao lose all her jumps too? Will Yuna quit competing? Will Joannie return next season? Will Gao, Baaga, Zawadzki all end up with career ending injuries? Will Wagner quit due to her several "oh so closes"?

No. Yes. Hell no. 2 out of 3, yes. No.

[rtureck]

Mao did not say that she had 80% chance of winning OGM. There was a thread titled so and was closed by the mod because the mod thought that none of the translation attempts by various posters, including the original poster, suggests that Mao said so.

Bennett, don;t even try to reason it out. I think some fans of OGM has a need to claim bragging rights, even in a neutral thread like this one. So let them brag on.

originally posted by janetfan

I still see a WC as a possibilty in Mirai's future. Sure I was disappointed in her Torino LP - let's not forget an even average skate from her would have easily beaten Laura, Miki, Cynthia or Caro for the Bronze medal - and saved us so much arguing over third place .

Let's see what next season with Frank and Lori produces and if Mirai can keep growing as a person and skater. I never thought or expected Mirai to win in Torino and her 1st place showing in the SP did not give me - and I suspect most of her fans any thoughts that she would win.

She is only 16, I definitely see a bright future sky is the limit WC or even OGM for her. How Nagasu and her team approach this is vital. She is one of the best spinners in the world. I hope she will improve on her jumps.

[FlattFan]

I believe bekalc meant that doing a 4T+3T and then a 2A will get you the same points as 4T and then 2A+3T.

I am still digesting the new rules but, in principle I agree with the combination bonus and allowing the 3A in the SP. Enforcing the 2A did not prevent mao from putting a 3A in her SP, and in combinatio no less, despite her low success rate with it.

this person has no concept of context at all.
I remember talking about the difference between a 3F-3T and 4T-3T and said something about 4 points difference and he went on and on about how I didn't know that 4T is worth so and so and not 4 points. It's funny it's happening AGAIN. Good grief.

[seniorita]

I m all for the new 2axel rule, and have they said anything about counting the combos differently? I cant follow much these days, economic crisis in Greece needs two jobs Because counting the combo as the sum of two individual jumps cancels the nature of the effort. A triple after a triple or quad must not count the same as a triple alone. Shouldn't they apply something as a geometric progression for the marks in combo? I never got it, they face combo as the sum of the two jumps but the Goe applies to the whole combo as a packet.

The this is figure skating , not figure jumping makes as much non sense as the non quad skaters should compete in icedance. Last time I remember, the quad guys as you label them dont do just a quad in their programs and thats it, they do the rest 7 jump passes and their spins and footwork and whatever program they have designed for 4.30 mins.

If they don't excel on some elements, it doesn't mean they are not adequate at least on them for the level they compete. The same for non quaders, they do all their triple jumps and plus many more. Not having a quad by the way doesn't make you more artistic, in my opinion. Because this is the new trend in the labeling. And throwing a quad once in a blue moon also doesn't make you a quad guy. So the artists and the quad guys category, doesn't make any sense for me.

It is as annoying to watch an empty program with a quad as much as to watch skaters with more complicated choreo and no quads to do their program clean as frequent as a volcano explodes. That if you watch a competition. If the quad guys are falsely rewarded in transitions or other components, i have many examples of this season where non quad skaters with unclean programs were rewarded Goes in jumps and components marks too high. The thing is once you are a top name you will be eventually over marked, quad or no quad.

So one excels in his area and is good enough on the rest of elements to compete in this level of competition. I dont accept the 'all they do is a quad" or "all they do is transitions".As a matter of fact, the system as it is doesn't need the skater to excel in anything, it needs hard training and work ethics, that is the resume of the season.

A bit unfair also as joubert has improved his spins a lot and has the same level now as many "artistic" skaters, it is not like everybody is far better and spins like stephane. Who has excellent spins now ? I can think of who hasn't. Just ok to gain the level 3 and 4.

As for 2002, system was not focusing on spins, and Plushenko didnt had the sit spin but he had the bielman, the donut, the catch foot spiral, and many more and the comparison with Goebel because he had 2 quads is irrelevant. Many people had a quad and were greater skaters than Goebel, Honda and Abt for example. Neither makes much sense comparing Goebel of 2002 with Plushenko of 2010.

Also I wouldn't compare Mirai with Mao, having seen Mao a lot this year live and having seen Mirai, I dont think Mao is slower or has inferior SS. Totally different skate they have, and Mirai had a great season, but it is too fast to compare her with Mao. By the way, have you seen Mao's new ex dress??A lot more happy

[Mathman]

Have they said anything about counting the combos differently? I cant follow much these days, economic crisis in Greece needs two jobs Because counting the combo as the sum of two individual jumps cancels the nature of the effort. A triple after a triple or quad must not count the same as a triple alone. Shouldn't they apply something as a geometric progression for the marks in combo? I never got it, they face combo as the sum of the two jumps but the Goe applies to the whole combo as a packet.

The proposed change is an automatic ten per cent bonus on all jumps performed in combination. So a 2A+2Lo+2Lo will now get 7.15 points instead of 6.5. (I think it would be better to give a higher bonus on the second jump and none on the first jump.)

There is no proposal so far about trying to evaluate the difficulty of each combination (like 4T+3T+3Lo) and no proposal to eliminate the penalty for sequences (like 3A/half loop/3F )

I believe that the reaosn the ISU is reluctant to reward combinations more is because a combo already carries a built-in bonus -- the skater can squeeze in an extra triple and use the extra jumping pass for something else. Plus, a combo allows you to repeat a jump and still stay ahead of the Zayak rules. So there are other benefits to combos than just the base values.

Still, I think it would be better to give full base value for sequences and a sizable bonus to the second (and third) jump in a combo.

About quads and PCSs, I do think that the judges tend to "give the best skaters the highest scores" without discriminating too finely among the criteria for each of the components. Skaters like Plushenko and Joubert -- also Takahashi -- give such attention-grabbing performances that this spills over into choreography, interpretation, etc. They have a way of making you feel like you are witnessing something spectacular. This was an area in which Tim Goebel, for instance, could not really compete no matter how many quads he did. (This is also why Mirai Nagasu gets more gushes than my girl, Rachael Flatt .) Just my opinion.

About Patrick Chan and the Transition boys: When Chan first appeared on the scene as a sixteen year old, I thought, here is the next Mr. IT. But...has he improved at all in the intervening two years?

[silverlake22]

Mirai will lose her lutz next season. Fixing the edge take off caused her to miss both lutzes in the LP. I don't see her on the podium at all. Plus the rule change to disallow 3 2A will reduce her BV by a few points.
Rachael is taking one year off to focus on skating. I expect a lot from her. She's smart enough to know what to work on. I see Rachael and possibly Ashley going to Worlds next year.

I think that's unfair to assume. Mirai's flutz has never been that bad (nowhere near the level of Mao or Kanako) and she has been working on it all season. Rachael's 3lutz isn't exactly great either, it looks like she's about to fall on it most every time she does it. People need to give Mirai a break, does anyone think Yuna is now suddenly terrible because she didn't have a great Worlds, or that Rachael is no longer consistent because of her mistakes at Worlds, or that Cynthia Phanuef is now likely to win all sorts of medals after her 5th place finish where she was so close to winning bronze - no. You shouldn't judge Mirai on her worst performance of the season, I mean, you saw how good she was at the Olympics and at nationals. And look how the judges have marked her - 70 points for a SP without getting the 3-3 ratified is pretty impressive, once she gets that 3lz-3t solid she'll be right up there with Yuna, and she already is right up with Mao and Joannie. Ashley hasn't cracked 60 for her SP internationally all season and Rachael got a 64 for her SP WITH the 3-3 ratified, without the 3-3, she gets 60 at best. I'm not saying Rachael is not good and that she won't be able to improve but come on people, Mirai is awesome and her results this season have shown that despite her losing to Rachael at nats, she is clearly the better skater of the two and more well received by the judges. Also, she used to always include 3sal in her LPs so I'm sure she can still do it, and earlier this season she was doing 3lo-2lo and only switched to 3lo-2a seq at nats after getting the 2lo downgraded at SC.

[seniorita]

Oh mathman i didnt know rachel was your girl, i suspect many more reasons why Mirai gets ahhhhss and ooooohs, she is just great in so many aspects and i am a new fan since worlds Rachel on the other hand...ah, i dont want to hurt your feelings!

I commented on 2002 because after the olympics depression i rewatched 2002 olys on youtube (i did a record, in two days all disciplines!!!) just to feel better (god bless 3Axel1996 by the way, is he any of the posters here??my forever gratitude), i have the competition fresh as i remember details. And while i m all for CoP, i found the programs even without the transitions and superman spins or the sequences that need half an hour to complete more amusing and less all the same, especially in ladies and pairs!And moves in the field for men were far more original than the checking the pcs boxes now every 5 seconds.

Thanx for the combo analysis resume, it was hard to read all the pages back, interesting about the goe on second or third jump, you base it to the fact that the first jump is anyhow easier to do?
Why dont you change jobs and write the new ISU rules now?

Mr chan, i was not a fan but I saw him live and i changed my mind, wonderful flow and his skills are far superior but he has small jumps and not so great spins to speak. I think Amodio and Kozuka can match his blade skill but Chan had better presentation. Although I think after the KOI touring Amodio will show brand new side of himself the next season, try on youtube his new michael jackson program and a tango he does, he is ten times better than joubert or plushenko in his age.

[Mathman]

Thanx for the combo analysis resume, it was hard to read all the pages back, interesting about the goe on second or third jump, you base it to the fact that the first jump is anyhow easier to do?

I am OK with GOE on the entire combo. My idea was that the bonus in base value should be all on the second jump. Say, 20% extra on the second jump and 0% extra on the first jump, instead of 10% extra on each.

For instance, if someone does a bad triple flip, barely holding on to the landing, but manages to recover in time to throw up a 2T afterward, I do not see any reason to give the flip a higher base value.

One reason I was rooting for Rachael Flatt to win U.S. Nationals this year was that she should have won in both 2008 and 2009. Rachael decisively beat Mirai (2008) and Alissa Czisny (2009) in the long program, but the vagaries of the scoring system allowed Mirai and Alissa to coast home with mistake-filled LPs because they scored big points in the short program.

Then at the Olympics they downgraded Rachael's jumps but let everyone else slide with equally questionable efforts.

Although I think after the KOI touring Amodio will show brand new side of himself the next season, try on youtube his new michael jackson program and a tango he does, he is ten times better than joubert or plushenko in his age.

Do you mean that Amodio's exhibitions are more entertaining (more entertaining than Sex Bomb? ), and that Florent is a better dancer? Because as a competitive skater there is no way Amodio compares to Plushenko at a comparable age. Amodio will be twenty next week (happy birthday, Florent! Plushenko was world junior champion at 14, world senior bronze medalist at 15, and by age 20 was world champion and Olympic silver medalist. (Thank you, Wikipedia. )

[Mathman]

People need to give Mirai a break...

? People LOVE Mirai. She is everybody's (except Flattfan's )favorite U.S. skater, she is the "future" of U.S. figure skating, her performances make women swoon and grown men cry.

There are lots of skaters who could use a break. But Mirai's stock has never been higher.