Hersh: Nagasu not on par with Flatt? HUH?

[janetfan]

My emphasis on skating order as a factor in how well contestants skate is felt by intimidation. The first person to skate hasn't a clue whether to take risks or not (think Kwan/Lipinsky) If a skater is the next competitor to skate, and hears the "bravos" from the audience while in the waiting room could aslo give a bit of shaky nerves. And, of course, if a Favorite has a melt down, and there is just pleasant applause. it could give the next skater to skate his best.

There are a lot of psychological reasons for a skater to be at his best or worst on the day of reckoning.

In the case of Mirai, I agree with Janetfan that, it is possible she may be less sure of herself skating early in the event. We will see more of this in the coming season.

Thanks for the explanation.
Here is an interesting interview with Frank Carroll where gets into this and other topics too.
He does talk about '98 and his comments about Michelle are very interesting.........

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/22/sp...22longman.html

[Olympia]

What an interesting article about Carroll, especially the section about Kwan. It does sting that Kwan's fall in 2002 might not have happened if Carroll was keeping his eagle eye on her jumps in the time leading up to Salt Lake City. Nonetheless, I'm so pleased that the two remain friends (I love that they meet for their birthdays), and that they both seem to have a mature view of their relationship. What a fruitful association they had together, from the early 1990s to 2001! Add Lori Nichol to the mix, and it led to some of the most magical skating in history.

[janetfan]

What an interesting article about Carroll, especially the section about Kwan. It does sting that Kwan's fall in 2002 might not have happened if Carroll was keeping his eagle eye on her jumps in the time leading up to Salt Lake City. Nonetheless, I'm so pleased that the two remain friends (I love that they meet for their birthdays), and that they both seem to have a mature view of their relationship. What a fruitful association they had together, from the early 1990s to 2001! Add Lori Nichol to the mix, and it led to some of the most magical skating in history.

I think it stings more that Michelle skated first at Nagano - had Tara skated first Michelle might have skated less cautiously.

This is a prime example of the point Joesitz makes about skating order. It can definitely be a factor in the way a skater performs - for better or for worse.

[KKonas]

I think it stings more that Michelle skated first at Nagano - had Tara skated first Michelle might have skated less cautiously.

This is a prime example of the point Joesitz makes about skating order. It can definitely be a factor in the way a skater performs - for better or for worse.

I was there. Kwan certainly had more pressure on her to win gold, but in my opinion, sequestering herself away from everything during the Olympics only added to the pressure, while Tara was very visible, clearly enjoying herself - even sitting in the media room next to the practice rink between practices - knitting! Not sure if skating order would have made a difference at that point. Guess we will never know for sure.

[janetfan]

I was there. Kwan certainly had more pressure on her to win gold, but in my opinion, sequestering herself away from everything during the Olympics only added to the pressure, while Tara was very visible, clearly enjoying herself - even sitting in the media room next to the practice rink between practices - knitting! Not sure if skating order would have made a difference at that point. Guess we will never know for sure.

Yes, these are "what if" type of questions. Interesting that Michelle did take an active part in the SLC games much like Tara did in Nagano.

Reading Carroll's comments he doesn't have an issue that Michelle stayed outside of the village. He clearly states his skater was advised on how to skate by others who had a different opinion than he did.

I find it hard to believe that if Tara had skated as well as she did - but before Michelle - that she would have just conceded the Gold and gone out to skate hoping to win the Silver.

Who knows how well she would have skated after Tara - but she certainly would have been aware that a cautious type of "stay on your feet" performance would not have been good enough to win.

Atleast Frank would have told her that. Not sure what her other advisors would have said to her.

What if....what if ....still winds up like .....who knows....who knows....what might have happened.

[PolymerBob]

What if....what if ....still winds up like .....who knows....who knows....what might have happened.

Please, enough of this what-if. If Michelle had won, she would now be an icon of the sport, recognized and admired the world over. Let's move on.

[janetfan]

Please, enough of this what-if. If Michelle had won, she would now be an icon of the sport, recognized and admired the world over. Let's move on.

Yes enough - and let's only discuss Caroline - and how you state over and over for two years now that she wuzrobbed

[PolymerBob]

Yes enough - and let's only discuss Caroline - and how you state over and over for two years now that she wuzrobbed

Actually, I want to discuss Tonya Harding, and how she was unfairly accused of involvement in the attack on Nancy.

[janetfan]

Actually, I want to discuss Tonya Harding, and how she was unfairly accused of involvement in the attack on Nancy.

So do I - but that would be off-topic

Speaking of the lovely Tonya, here is my favorite quote of hers:

"One thing I like about boxing is that I will not have to deal with the same kind of politics that I had to in skating. In boxing, it is not about your appearance, or how your costume looks, what color it is, or how much it costs."

Poor girl missed her true calling

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HsoN-dk-Nvw

I think Johnny shoud be her next opponent :o

[Joesitz]

Thanks for the explanation.
Here is an interesting interview with Frank Carroll where gets into this and other topics too.
He does talk about '98 and his comments about Michelle are very interesting.........

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/22/sp...22longman.html

quote: His first great one, Fratianne, took silver at the 1980 Winter Olympics in Lake Placid, N.Y. Carroll complained at the time, and remains convinced, that she was a victim of East-West connivance during the Cold War. He insists the results were rigged, with five German-speaking judges conspiring to hand the women’s gold medal to Anett Pφtzsch of East Germany and the men’s gold to Robin Cousins of England.
unquote.

We all have our conspiracy theories which are not easily proven. But they do leave a question mark in one's mind. Thinking about the Fall of the Soviet Union and it's Allies, the scoring in Figure Skating has changed with the last Russian to skate from that era. Most of the Soviet skaters in that era were excellent skaters, but the question remains, Did they deserve to win? It is difficult to put Potzsch in that grouping, at least for me. Nowadays, would those Soviet skaters do as well with the CoP? Russia and former Soviet Federations do have the talent to win without question.

I do praise the CoP for taking the possible cheating out of figure skating, but who knows if the cheaters from wherever today can find a way to blast the CoP?

As for Kwan, I believe Carroll when he disses Danny which came to be believable in the 2002 Olys.

[janetfan]

quote: [I]
As for Kwan, I believe Carroll when he disses Danny which came to be believable in the 2002 Olys.

I haven't seen it for a while - but upon Frank Carroll's induction into the skating Hall of Fame, Michelle wrote a letter to him that expressed such nice feelings and acknowledged a debt of gratitude to Frank.

I think Frank expressed it well too when he notes in the article that after so many years a skater or any athlete may not react to instruction from the same voice as they did in the past. Isn't this a prime reason given when we see NFL and NBA coaches fired?

[silverlake22]

Poor girl missed her true calling

As far as I can tell, Caroline missed her true calling.....rhythmic gymastics
http://outofthebubble.files.wordpres...cs_300x400.jpg
http://www.drjump.com/images/rhythmic%20gymnastics.jpg
http://i.telegraph.co.uk/telegraph/m...t_1476371i.jpg

Speed and technique are irrelevant, flexibility and grace are the only things that matter. It's not too late to switch Caroline!

[kappa_1]

^^^

I would have loved to see what Caroline and Fleur Maxwell could have done on the Rhythmic Gym mat. Unfortunately, the politricks of Rhythmic Gymnastics makes the ISU look like the Quakers.

ETA: politricks= Rastafarian for politics. Sort of.

[skfan]

Thanks for the explanation.
Here is an interesting interview with Frank Carroll where gets into this and other topics too.
He does talk about '98 and his comments about Michelle are very interesting.........

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/22/sp...22longman.html

the dress MK is wearing in that article pix, i've never seen her skate in it before. which events did she compete in that dress, can someone with better memory tell me? TIA.

[PolymerBob]

On the average, there seems to be about a 6% "grade inflation" across the board, comparing national championships to international results. The judges have the most leeway in two categories, GOEs for non-jump elements and program components. It is interersting to break down the numbers for different skaters.

I decided to continue the analysis of Nationals inflation for the top ladies, though I did it in a slightly different way. I took each lady individually, and compared each National score with the nearest ISU score, whichever event that happened to be. The results were interesting.

Alissa Czisny

year …. Nat score …. ISU score …. inflation …. percent
2006 ……. 149.51 ……. 140.90 ……. 8.61 …...…. 5.76 %
2007 ……. 177.74 ……. 154.03 ……. 23.71 ……. 13.34%
2008 ……. 146.38 ……. 144.32 ……. 2.06 …...…. 1.41 %
2009 ……. 178.06 ……. 159.81 ……. 18.25 ……. 10.25%
2010 ……. 140.37 ……. 163.53 ……. -23.16 ……. -16.50%

average ….. average %
5.89 ………….. 2.85 %

Rachael Flatt

year …. Nat score …. ISU score …. inflation …. percent
2008 ……. 188.73 ……. 172.19 ……. 16.54 ……. 8.76 %
2009 ……. 173.78 ……. 162.83 ……. 10.95 ……. 6.30 %
2010 ……. 200.11 ……. 182.49 ……. 17.62 ……. 8.81 %

average ….. average
15.04 ………….. 7.96 %

Bebe Liang

year …. Nat score …. ISU score …. inflation …. percent
2006 ……. 151.41 ……. 159.91 ……. -8.50 ……. -5.61 %
2007 ……. 167.15 ……. 129.32 ……. 37.83 ……. 22.63 %
2008 ……. 164.87 ……. 144.25 ……. 20.62 ……. 12.51 %
2009 ……. 135.15 ……. 134.29 ……. 0.86 …..…. 0.64 %
2010 ……. 147.71 ……. 131.39 ……. 16.32 ……. 11.05 %

average ….. avarage
13.43 ………….. 8.24 %

Mirai Nagasu

year …. Nat score …. ISU score …. inflation …. percent
2007 ……. 155.46 ……. 163.84 ……. -8.38 ……. -5.39 %
2008 ……. 190.41 ……. 162.89 ……. 27.52 ……. 14.45 %
2009 ……. 159.99 ……. 124.22 ……. 35.77 ……. 22.36 %
2010 ……. 188.78 ……. 190.15 ……. -1.37 ……. -0.73 %

average ….. average
13.39 ………….. 7.67 %

Ashley Wagner

year …. Nat score …. ISU score …. inflation …. percent
2007 ……. 145.86 ……. 157.15 ……. -11.29 ……. -7.74 %
2008 ……. 188.56 ……. 152.46 ……. 36.10 ……. 19.15 %
2009 ……. 165.33 ……. 153.57 ……. 11.76 ……. 7.11 %
2010 ……. 184.70 ……. 162.07 ……. 22.63 ……. 12.25 %

average ….. average
14.80 ………….. 7.69 %

So there seems to be a 6 to 15 point inflation factor among our ladies. And I think I took a big enough sampling to prove that the inflation is really there. This is not just a quirk of one or two events, or one or two years. This is a definite pattern.

Well, I guess you know what's coming next.

Caroline Zhang

year …. Nat score …. ISU score …. inflation …. percent
2007 ……. 151.88 ……. 169.25 ……. -17.37 ……. -11.44 %
2008 ……. 173.16 ……. 171.84 ……. 1.32 ….....…. 0.76 %
2009 ……. 171.08 ……. 171.22 ……. -0.14 …..…. -0.08 %
2010 ……. 138.27 ……. 160.78 ……. -22.51 ……. -16.28 %

average ….. average
-9.68 ………….. -6.76 %

Once again, the pattern is there. :sheesh: