Would Plush have won if the new rules had been applied?

[gsrossano]

I can't agree with the argument that CoP punishes quad jumpers because it is hard to be a consistent quad jumper and also have everything else. It IS hard to be a quad jumper and have everything else not because of CoP, but because is just is-- regardless of the scoring system

One could say that, 'well in 6.0 a skater could be nothing but a quad jumper and get away with it' and this is probably true. 6.0 was primarily a jumping contest and one purpose of CoP was to get away from that -- which it does to some extent. So the problem is not with CoP, but with 6.0.

In CoP the quad jumper with everything else will win over the well balanced skater without a quad and the quad skater who is not well balanced. In the absence of the quad jumper with everyting else, it is a close contest between the well balanced skater without a quad and the quad skater who is not well balanced, with the well balanced skater having a reasonable chance to win. At least under the rules until now.

With the rules for 2010/11, to beat a Plushenko type performance (one good quad in the short and long but some weaknesses in other things) the well balanced skater will now have to try at least one quad to still win. That quad does not have to perfect. In fact it can be highly flawed (a fall even), but it has to be attempted.

At least that is what comparing the scoring scenarios say to me.

[gmyers]

... See, the inherent premise in your argument just doesn't strike me as logically sound, or it might just be wording. Essentially, what you're saying is that the system punishes quads because it expects you to skate well after landing one to succeed.



Ah, fair enough. Realistically, my comments really should narrow on four competitions: Worlds 2008, 2009, 2010 and Olympics 2010. People have major issues with the WC/OGM not having a quad and feel that relates to COP dismissing it, but the quad skaters in those events had more issues then the non-quad skaters. But no, I don't feel that there's any non-quad skaters that have the whole package, even if I enjoy many of them.

My point is addressed in the second part of your post when you say "quad skaters had more issues than the non quad skaters" Don't you think one has something to do with the other. I hear this all the time from the commentators that say if you do a quad it takes up a lot of energy and you can be so happy you landed it it can affect some other things negatively or that you can be disappointed you didn't do it and it damages the program. And because COP demands you do all things equally well really well it makes sense to stop doing the quad if it is so mentally physically demanding -which is why the last three world champions and the current olympic champion landed a total of ZERO quads. You can skate well after landing a quad but can you do spins steps and transitions to a level of a skater without quads? Maybe not.

[janetfan]

Anybody care to address how "physically demanding" a quad is?

And how much more demanding might a Solo 4T be compared to Yuna's 3Lz+ 3T?

Button has said many times over the years that spinning is more demanding to a skater's endurance that jumping.

Is Button wrong?

Thinking of basketball, as a former player I can say jumping is about the easiest aspect of the sport. It is not tiring unless done in a drill with reps and compared to dribbling around another player with stop and go motion it is less demanding.

Just my personal experience/

[gmyers]

I can't agree with the argument that CoP punishes quad jumpers because it is hard to be a consistent quad jumper and also have everything else. It IS hard to be a quad jumper and have everything else not because of CoP, but because is just is-- regardless of the scoring system

One could say that, 'well in 6.0 a skater could be nothing but a quad jumper and get away with it' and this is probably true. 6.0 was primarily a jumping contest and one purpose of CoP was to get away from that -- which it does to some extent. So the problem is not with CoP, but with 6.0.

In CoP the quad jumper with everything else will win over the well balanced skater without a quad and the quad skater who is not well balanced. In the absence of the quad jumper with everyting else, it is a close contest between the well balanced skater without a quad and the quad skater who is not well balanced, with the well balanced skater having a reasonable chance to win. At least under the rules until now.

With the rules for 2010/11, to beat a Plushenko type performance (one good quad in the short and long but some weaknesses in other things) the well balanced skater will now have to try at least one quad to still win. That quad does not have to perfect. In fact it can be highly flawed (a fall even), but it has to be attempted.

At least that is what comparing the scoring scenarios say to me.

But even under this scenario there is the likely possibilty that because quads are really hard to do that there will be people who will win who don't attempt a quad and win because they landed all theire triple jumps and possibly made up points with bonus marks after the halfway point. People had thought COP would mean quads would always win but it turned out that quads are totally unnecessary and dumnb to do under COP. No one predicted that. If the ISU wants to make a quad a requirement int he short program that would make people think it was important again-because right now it is not. Also if you do to a quad I mean there is still the factor of how much energy you used to do that can't be used on spins and steps.

[gsrossano]

... there will be people who will win who don't attempt a quad and win because they landed all theire triple jumps and possibly made up points with bonus marks after the halfway point.

The point values say highly unlikely now. For a skater with no quads to beat a skater with two clean quads next season, the skater with two clean quads will have to be pretty pathetic in everything else. The quad skater will have to be two levels lower in spins and steps, or be nearly a full point lower in PCs. I expect that will be very unlikely -- not mathematiclly impossible but very unlikely.

People had thought COP would mean quads would always win but it turned out that quads are totally unnecessary and dumnb to do under COP. No one predicted that.

Knowing the people who thought up CoP, I can't agree. Only a few skaters and coaches thought a quad was a sure ticket to win (and of course the fans too). CoP was designed to make it less of a jumping competition and less of a one trick competition. Quads are not always dumb to do. They are dumb to do for certain skaters and in certain situations. Quads are one tool in a strategy to win. Use of the tool may be brilliiant or dumb depending on the situation.

[dorispulaski]

Anybody care to address how "physically demanding" a quad is?

And how much more demanding might a Solo 4T be compared to Yuna's 3Lz+ 3T?

Button has said many times over the years that spinning is more demanding to a skater's endurance that jumping.

Is Button wrong?

I think what Button said is right, but not pertinent. I don't think the issue is the endurance-it's easier to get timing right when you're least tired-at the front of the program. After that, what's easier, is what's easier for you personally. Another issue is whether you need to build up a huge head of speed to do your 4t-and thus have no transitions during that section of your program (cf. Plush)-probably easier at the beginning of the program than at the end.

Inserting YuNa into the discussion is She has one set of abilities, other skaters have others.

Chris Bowman could do 3lz+3t pretty much every time. He could only occasionally hit a 3A and never could get round a 4t. Some skaters have that nice rhythm that allows them to do 3/3's. Consider Kevin vdP who could do 3/3/3 but had a hard time learning 4t (he has it now) and had troubles with his 3A for quite a while. How about Ryan Bradley, who can do a 4t3t fairly often, but has a hard time with a 3A? Different people have different abilities. YuNa can do a gorgeous 3lz/3t and a gorgeous 3f/3t,but she can't point her toe at this point in time, resulting in one of the least appealing spirals I've seen in a top competitor, IMO. Everyone has strengths and weaknesses. They have to do with differences in flexibility, fast twitch muscles, and other basic, inborn abilities, as well as whether a skater trained hard on that particular skill, and whether or not they are a good competitor.

[janetfan]

I think what Button said is right, but not pertinent. I don't think the issue is the endurance-it's easier to get timing right when you're least tired-at the front of the program. After that, what's easier, is what's easier for you personally. Another issue is whether you need to build up a huge head of speed to do your 4t-and thus have no transitions during that section of your program (cf. Plush)-probably easier at the beginning of the program than at the end.

Inserting YuNa into the discussion is She has one set of abilities, other skaters have others.

Chris Bowman could do 3lz+3t pretty much every time. He could only occasionally hit a 3A and never could get round a 4t. Some skaters have that nice rhythm that allows them to do 3/3's. Consider Kevin vdP who could do 3/3/3 but had a hard time learning 4t (he has it now) and had troubles with his 3A for quite a while. How about Ryan Bradley, who can do a 4t3t fairly often, but has a hard time with a 3A? Different people have different abilities. YuNa can do a gorgeous 3lz/3t and a gorgeous 3f/3t,but she can't point her toe at this point in time, resulting in one of the least appealing spirals I've seen in a top competitor, IMO. Everyone has strengths and weaknesses. They have to do with differences in flexibility, fast twitch muscles, and other basic, inborn abilities, as well as whether a skater trained hard on that particular skill, and whether or not they are a good competitor.

I agree that skaters are different and what is easier for one may be more difficult for another.
As Button said many times, jumping is NOT what fatigues a skater and spinning requires more energy.

Some skaters put more into their spins, have more demanding positions and much more speed.
Some skaters are able to jump higher or spin faster in the air or both.

I mentioned Yuna's 3L +3T because I suspect she uses more energy on that combo that a guy might use on a solo 4T. And yet it does not seem to fatigue her. I don't think doing a solo 4T or 4S fatigues a skater that much. Many frontload because after skating and spinning for two minutes they might not have the stamina for the big tricks later in their programs.

I think the fact that Cop is a more demanding system with skaters trying to achieve the highest levels on as many elements as possible may be fatiguing to skaters. One jump, whether a 3A or 4T or a 3L+3T combo should not cause a stamina problem for a skater well trained and in good shape.

[Mathman]

Michael Chack -- the phrase "he was chacked," meaning "his performance was cut from the TV coverage," was coined after him -- once tried a one-foot single Axel / quad Salchow combo (two-footed landing) at U.S. Nationals.

[Layfan]

But even under this scenario there is the likely possibilty that because quads are really hard to do that there will be people who will win who don't attempt a quad and win because they landed all theire triple jumps and possibly made up points with bonus marks after the halfway point. People had thought COP would mean quads would always win but it turned out that quads are totally unnecessary and dumnb to do under COP. No one predicted that. If the ISU wants to make a quad a requirement int he short program that would make people think it was important again-because right now it is not. Also if you do to a quad I mean there is still the factor of how much energy you used to do that can't be used on spins and steps.

Do you think men's skating is that the point where a quad should be requirement? I wonder if making quad a requirement in the short would turn competitions into a splat-fest.
Simpler to give the quad more points. That way you can choose not to do it but you would be at a disadvantage.

[gmyers]

The point values say highly unlikely now. For a skater with no quads to beat a skater with two clean quads next season, the skater with two clean quads will have to be pretty pathetic in everything else. The quad skater will have to be two levels lower in spins and steps, or be nearly a full point lower in PCs. I expect that will be very unlikely -- not mathematiclly impossible but very unlikely.

Knowing the people who thought up CoP, I can't agree. Only a few skaters and coaches thought a quad was a sure ticket to win (and of course the fans too). CoP was designed to make it less of a jumping competition and less of a one trick competition. Quads are not always dumb to do. They are dumb to do for certain skaters and in certain situations. Quads are one tool in a strategy to win. Use of the tool may be brilliiant or dumb depending on the situation.

But when it comes to world championships and apparently the Olympics now a tool to win does not inculde a quad. the best skaters in the world are quadless. The quad is not a tool to win worldwide. When it comes to ISU events only some grand prix events and europeans have winners that have done quads. This was not true before COP. When world champions and olympics can throw the quad tool out of there mindset that is a problem to me because it means backwards.

Do you think men's skating is that the point where a quad should be requirement? I wonder if making quad a requirement in the short would turn competitions into a splat-fest.
Simpler to give the quad more points. That way you can choose not to do it but you would be at a disadvantage.

I just think the quad has gone from all mens olympic medalists doing it in 2002 to one doing it in 2010 and all world champions doing it from 1997 to 2007 to none doing it the past three years. Obviously something that could be done routinely in the past is not being done now and skaters should show that the quad is still a skill the top level of skaters needs because now a top level skater could never learn how to do a quad and jumping of course is still vital to success.

[Joesitz]

I'm one of those guys that believe in genetics. Some skaters have natural ability to leap high. This concept is accepted in Dance Class, btw. Miki Ando is a high jumper. I do not believe she worked her way up to being one of the high jumpers in figure skating. It is just natural.

Some skaters have natural air rotation. Kevin Reynolds is extremely adept at the number of rotations in the air. I believe at some point he will have all 4 Quad jumps depending on his technique. It is just natural.

There is only one skater that comes to mind that has natural height and air rotations. That, of course, is Evgeni Plushenko.

Only a judge can say he satisfies the CoP as a winner. Only a fan can ask, is there anything else?.
It all takes a lot of work for the above mentioned to maintain that natural ability under the stress of competition.

[gmyers]

I wonder if Kevin Reynolds can keep those jumps and raise his PCS-or does he have to give them up and go to triples to raise his PCS. He would have to be really great to keep those jumps and raise his PCS.

[Layfan]

But when it comes to world championships and apparently the Olympics now a tool to win does not inculde a quad. the best skaters in the world are quadless. The quad is not a tool to win worldwide. When it comes to ISU events only some grand prix events and europeans have winners that have done quads. This was not true before COP. When world champions and olympics can throw the quad tool out of there mindset that is a problem to me because it means backwards.



I just think the quad has gone from all mens olympic medalists doing it in 2002 to one doing it in 2010 and all world champions doing it from 1997 to 2007 to none doing it the past three years. Obviously something that could be done routinely in the past is not being done now and skaters should show that the quad is still a skill the top level of skaters needs because now a top level skater could never learn how to do a quad and jumping of course is still vital to success.

Yes, but that just means men used need the quad to WIN, not to enter at all. You can take care of that by giving it the points it deserves. Making it a requirement seems a bit much.


Anyway, I agree that nobody foresaw the quad losing importance under COP. Everyone thought the new system would turn figure skating into a "jumping competition."

It seems that is far from the case. I'm not opposed to giving the quad more points. Or the 3 axel for women. I don't want to see the sport go backwards either.

Just so long as one jump doesn't get SO many points that it's game over even it that skater slops their way through the rest of the program compared to another skater that doesn't.

And just so long as skaters are at least given the CHANCE to prove they are so good they don't need a certain element to win.

I mean, Kristi Yamaguchi was doing 3-3s in 1992, right? But if it had been a requirement we might have had no Michelle Kwan and who knows who else...

I suppose there are people who will always disagree, but I think Michelle Kwan proved she was just so darned good that she could often win with a perfect 7-triple program and great artistry against a lady who might have done a 3-3 but just wasn't as impressive the rest of the way through.

I would worry about a giving a quad so many points that Tim Goebel would have won over Yagudin in 2002 because he did more quads. To me, Yagudin was clearly superior.

People might not think that was the case with Evan. I get that plenty of people dislike Evan's skating so much that there is just no way they'll think he was better than Plushenko as long as Plushenko hit his 4-3 and stayed on his feet the rest of the time.

That's fine. But there are plenty of other examples to choose from in history where a skater defeated another skater who might have done the toughest trick on the competition but was lacking elsewhere.

There needs to be balance. I'm all for Tara Lipinski defeating Kwan in 98 - because Tara had a technically more difficult program AND her overall skating that night was pretty good AND she performed the heck out of that program. No, she wasn't the artist Michelle Kwan was. But that night, her own talents were good enough to defeat Kwan's superior artistry.

But I don't think the outcome should have been foretold: Oh, if Tara hits her 3-3 than she automatically beats Kwan and Kwan shouldn't bother...

I know nobody is arguing for that. But it's what I worry about if they go overboard with awarding certain tricks too many points.

We'll see how these new changes play out. They maybe just right.

I don't want either Elvis or Patrick Chan to get their way. With Elvis, I think his comments placed too much importance on the quad and was too dismissive of the other parts of skating.
But I didn't like the way Patrick kept implying all season that the quad guys were old-fashioned and that his way was the new dawn or whatever. I love Patrick's skating. But I'd like to see him work on a quad, too.

[gmyers]

I also do not think the quad should be worth so much that it would overwhelm everything else. There is something about how points are accumulated in COP that has led to its near eliminaiton from many peoples menu of jumps. Patrick Chan was all over the place saying things like -"Who cares if I don't have a quad -I have everthing else" Like the quad is some extra thing that doesn't mean anything to skating. Looks like his view was ratified by the Olympic results and world results. He has no motivation to learn the quad. The ISU can allow two quads to be done in the short program but the problem wasn't that skaters felt they couldn't do enough of them-it's that there is no motivation to even try one anymore. The entire way points are added up needs to be changed not just the value of a quad jump.

[ImaginaryPogue]

Can you explain, then, how the point totals are accumulated in such a way to render it's elimination? Because the quad was worth the same in the 2006/07 season as it was in the 07/08 season, and the top five men at worlds 2007 all landed fully rotated quads (Joubert, Takahashi, Lambiel, Verner, Lysacek). What change in the system happened that could conceivably be responsible for it's decline? Does anyone know?