Would Plush have won if the new rules had been applied?

[Layfan]

Well, no one asked this question but Yagudin would still win gold with his Salt Lake performances under CoP or any system because he had everything it takes. Plus points for handsome and very masculine! He's so much more a complete skater than the three from Vancouver. In Salt Lake Evan would have won pewter. Oh, forgot he actually was in fact fourth!

I have forgiven the Plush One for his outbursts. He's so gutsy and he used to be much better. Sigh. Still, one has to admire the effort and the resolve. 3 medals in three Olympics won't likely occur again.

Evan had a miserable SP in his first Olympics and then skated the best he could in the LP to pull up to fourth. Are we supposed to shoot him for that?

So what if he didn't beat Plushenko at his first Olympics? You love Sarah so much, well how long did it take her to beat Michelle at an international competition? Are we supposed to sneer at Sarah because she was third at 2001 Worlds behind Michelle and third at 2002 Nationals behind Michelle? What does that prove?

Maybe it takes away from Evan's gold medal that Plushenko and Takahashi were not at their best that night. And maybe it takes away from Sarah's Olympic gold medal that Michelle and Irina were not at THEIR best.

Or maybe not. Maybe Evan and Sarah are both talented skaters who held it together when it counted most and other didn't. Neither of them were my favorite skaters in either Olympics. But both gave the best LP of the night and good for them.

[princess9]

I never said I love Sarah so much, Layfan. I don't know her and she's not my favorite skater either. I'm not dissing Evan. I just added Yagudin was so special his performances beat any at Vancouver. At least IMO. My OP was how would Sarah's skate hold up under CoP given how tech demanding it was and very good in all other aspects. Yet to get an answer from the CoP 'experts.'

[Layfan]

I never said I love Sarah so much, Layfan. I don't know her and she's not my favorite skater either. I'm not dissing Evan. I just added Yagudin was so special his performances beat any at Vancouver. At least IMO. My OP was how would Sarah's skate hold up under CoP given how tech demanding it was and very good in all other aspects. Yet to get an answer from the CoP 'experts.'

Well. Sorry if I overreacted a bit. I guess my only point is that it doesn't really prove anything to point out that Evan was fourth at Torino since he was not at his best...

As for Sarah, I can't help you much because I'm far, far from a COP expert. But I think many people have pointed out that Sarah probably would not have gotten credit for her 3-3s under COP, so it wouldn't have mattered that her skate was the most technically demanding because under COP she would not have lived up to those demands. However, many people have also pointed out that Sarah obviously would have structured her program much differently if she had been skating to COP rules so it is really impossible to say how her skating would hold up.

If Sarah skated that exact program in Vancouver, my wild guess is that she would most definitely would have lost to Yuna and Mao. Yuna's brilliant 3 lutz-3 toe and her high GOES on the rest of her jumps would have more than enough to defeat Sarah, whose jumps would have been downgraded. Mao's 3a probably would have been enough to defeat her too.

But of course, Sarah would not have skated that program in Vancouver. She would have put her program together quite differently. So who knows?

p.s. ITA that the men's skating at Vancouver was disappointing compared to Yagudin and even Plush in 2002, regardless of how those skates would hold up to COP.

But if Dai had been clean and won he would have definitely rivaled Yagudin for my favorite men's GM winner since I started watching Olympic skating in '92. So, I'm not as fussed about the supposed deterioration of men's skating as others are. I think the Japanese men will have something to say about that.

[ImaginaryPogue]

Lololololololololololol!!!!!!!!!!( laughing at the idea of awarding a facebook medal!)

I'll bet by now Plush has the event more in perspective, because honestly what he accomplished in Vancouver was an amazing achievement. If he'd stuck with his "I'll be happy with any color medal, even bronze would give me one of each" comments, we would see only the amazing feat he accomplished. Also, I like Evan's personality- different strokes and all that.

Ah ok lets say then that Lysacek was 1.3 points (SP and LP combined) more intelligent than Plushenko and won fair and square. Because he beated a non intelligent, mediocre Plushenko-half the skater he used to be- by this margin. I had not seen that perspective of the outcome

Well, it's sorta true. Plushenko wasn't the skater he used to be, didn't tailor his programs to COP and had a weak skate (FOR HIM, not in general). If he had demonstrated a better understanding of COP or had a stronger skate, he would've won. That's a tribute to his abilities. If he had demonstrated class after the outcome and been proud of his stellar achievement (three Olympic medals in three games), people wouldn't feel the need to bring him down a little.

[gsrossano]

if it goes for me, I have survived and forgot Vancouver already . To answer your first question the calculations according to cop experts of facebook (new emoticon yey!)

1. Plushenko - 257.4, 2. Lysacek - 255.9 3. Takahashi - 251.6.

Using all the marks and the new SoV, but all other rules from 2009/10 I come up with

Plushenko 258.58 (1, 2)
Lysacek 257.43 (3,1)
Takahashi 254.37 (2,4)
Lambiel 249.92 (4,3)
Chan 245.04 (7,5)
Weir 240.91 (6,6)

[Bennett]

Using all the marks and the new SoV, but all other rules from 2009/10 I come up with

Plushenko 258.58 (1, 2)
Lysacek 257.43 (3,1)
Takahashi 254.37 (2,4)
Lambiel 249.92 (4,3)
Chan 245.04 (7,5)
Weir 240.91 (6,6)

PCS still seeems to play a big role in determining the 4-6th places.

[gmyers]

Well, it's sorta true. Plushenko wasn't the skater he used to be, didn't tailor his programs to COP and had a weak skate (FOR HIM, not in general). If he had demonstrated a better understanding of COP or had a stronger skate, he would've won. That's a tribute to his abilities. If he had demonstrated class after the outcome and been proud of his stellar achievement (three Olympic medals in three games), people wouldn't feel the need to bring him down a little.

So much of tailoring your skate to COP means no quad for most skaters. Like he could have not done a quad and did what the world champions of 2008 and 2009 did and what workd for them and also world champion for 2010. None of them had quads. He said he wanted to do quad jumps and that is really punished under COP. I don't think its a coincidence that skaters most seen as COP skaters don't have quads. So Plushenko tried to win the old way of winning and it almost worked.

[ImaginaryPogue]

So much of tailoring your skate to COP means no quad for most skaters. Like he could have not done a quad and did what the world champions of 2008 and 2009 did and what workd for them and also world champion for 2010. None of them had quads. He said he wanted to do quad jumps and that is really punished under COP. I don't think its a coincidence that skaters most seen as COP skaters don't have quads. So Plushenko tried to win the old way of winning and it almost worked.

The idea that quad jumping is punished under COP is a myth. It's just that the noted quad jumpers (Verner, Plushenko, van de Perren, Joubert, Lambiel) suffer in other areas. So what they earn from the quad, they lose elsewhere.

[gmyers]

The idea that quad jumping is punished under COP is a myth. It's just that the noted quad jumpers (Verner, Plushenko, van de Perren, Joubert, Lambiel) suffer in other areas. So what they earn from the quad, they lose elsewhere.

This is my point. If would make sense if all those people just went with triple jumps and focused on the other areas.

[seniorita]

The idea that quad jumping is punished under COP is a myth. It's just that the noted quad jumpers (Verner, Plushenko, van de Perren, Joubert, Lambiel) suffer in other areas. So what they earn from the quad, they lose elsewhere.

You mean no quad skaters dont suffer anywhere? Lysacek suffers in no area cause he is not quad jumper? I dont buy the whole Cop packet. Verner Vs Lambiel Vs Plush Vs Joub Vs Kvdp etc are completely different skaters each. A. Dimitriev said "Plushenko could have done Lysacek 's program with no sweat ", I m rephrasing here,but I m sure Plush could not have done a cop program like Taka's program or Abott 's. For Lysacek's I m not sure, maybe he could have , with triples and all and more efficient flapping, it could work. But he didnt anyway so there 's no point to speculate. And it is not like Abott suffers from the quad he tries. He can blow the program even without a quad. Or he can be perfect like nationals.

[janetfan]

I seriously doubt if Plushy now or even when he was young could duplicate Evan's program. Plushy has been frontloading programs going back to when he was 15.

Maybe it is Mishin's belief that it is necessary to get the big tricks over with at the start - but that has become an outdated strategy in recent years.

Evan actually skates better and looks to get stronger in the second half of his LP and Plushy looks the opposite.

Interesting to see if the Russians will show programs with better pacing in the future - and take advantage of the 2nd half jump bonus.

[ImaginaryPogue]

You mean no quad skaters dont suffer anywhere? Lysacek suffers in no area cause he is not quad jumper? I dont buy the whole Cop packet. Verner Vs Lambiel Vs Plush Vs Joub Vs Kvdp etc are completely different skaters each. A. Dimitriev said "Plushenko could have done Lysacek 's program with no sweat ", I m rephrasing here,but I m sure Plush could not have done a cop program like Taka's program or Abott 's. For Lysacek's I m not sure, maybe he could have , with triples and all and more efficient flapping, it could work. But he didnt anyway so there 's no point to speculate. And it is not like Abott suffers from the quad he tries. He can blow the program even without a quad. Or he can be perfect like nationals.

Of course I don't mean that. That's not the argument I'm making and I don't see how you can read that. People are specifically saying that COP hurts quad jumpers. I'm arguing otherwise. The weaknesses that other skaters have affect them differently. Maybe not enough, maybe too much.

When you say you don't "buy the whole COP packet?" can you explain what you mean? I'm not confident Plushenko could do the program that Lysacek did, with the more evenly laid out jumps etc, but I do think he's the stronger skater. He just didn't have the stronger skate.

[vlaurend]

Using all the marks and the new SoV, but all other rules from 2009/10 I come up with

Plushenko 258.58 (1, 2)
Lysacek 257.43 (3,1)
Takahashi 254.37 (2,4)
Lambiel 249.92 (4,3)
Chan 245.04 (7,5)
Weir 240.91 (6,6)

Assuming they didn't change their jumps to take advantage of the new rules, that puts Plushenko a little over 1.15 points above Lysacek. So what if they knew about the new rules and changed their programs accordingly? Could Lysacek have added 1.16 points between the SP and FS?

(1) Lysacek might have gone for an underrotated quad, landed it and gotten 70% of its value.

(2) Lysacek might have done a better camel or flying camel spin. . . then again, maybe he wouldn't.
Under the new rules, the single position spin cannot be in the same position as the flying spin, and of course both men did sitspins for both (as did most of the other men), so they would have had to do a camel spin for one of those instead. Neither did any difficult variations on the camel except for the reverse entry, so it's hard to say which would be able to get higher levels/GOE on a camel or flying camel.

Having just looked at the features they used to get levels in their sitspins and CCoSp's, both men would have lost the same number of points/levels on those two spins due to the new spin feature rules, so it would really come down to who could master more features on a camel or flying camel.

As for the 2nd step sequence, with the new base value for each at just 2 points and no levels given, it would have come down to their GOE's, which were tied at 1.6 combined for SP & FS. So no difference there.

[seniorita]

I seriously doubt if Plushy now or even when he was young could duplicate Evan's program. Plushy has been frontloading programs going back to when he was 15.

Plushy was frontloading his programs I guess since 15 but since 15 he had quad combos and also there was no CoP there. Any other comparison of Plush in the past vs Lysacek fails me right now. There is a whole database in youtube from american commentators about what plush did or did not do since he was 15. Browning in 2006 said he is not his cup of tea presentationwise but apart from huge jumper he has great feet. I saw this here, in the archives of GS articles. Peter G And Terry G were gushing for years, and take a look of their last commentary they did for him in Euros 2006 about his edges and control plus anything else. Button when he was on good mood also. They are more wise than me. Try it. Cause as much objective as I can be your comments sound desillusional, on the other hand, I can repeat I m like Naomi Campel for the next 4000 posts, but I m not.

When you say you don't "buy the whole COP packet?" can you explain what you mean?

Oh, i think I read opposite and I meant probably what you said but i said it wrong. I thought that u said that non quad skaters have everything else. I just wanted to say that the skater who has not the quad and is using his triples etc is not necessary the CoP whole packet

[gmyers]

I am sure if Plushenko did not start off his programs with a quad triple every time he could have more energy for jumps in the second half of the programs. Someone who does three or four triple jumps has a whole different division of energy than someone who starts out with a quad triple. Plushenko hadn't done that in more than a decade so who knows how many triple jumps he could do after the halfway point for bonuses if he didn't spend so much energy and stregnth on the quad triple. As far as I know he is still the only skater in the world who can do that and not fall or double or single multiple jumps. This is why COP punishes quads. You have more energy for everything without doing a quad not to even mention a quad triple. Spin levels step levels all that-and Plushenko still got level 3's and 4's on some spins and steps though GOE was always in the base value to 1 range (sometimes 2 but rarely ever +3).